From the link at Dave's
"Instead, send your scouts into the field to find out what's hot, and back it with all you have."
Unfortunately for MS, it is Open Source that is hot. They have nothing to offer.
That's absolutely not true. You haven't seen what's coming. I have. Don't assume that Microsoft's 55,000 employees have been sitting on the beach doing nothing. They haven't.
Robert, no one is sitting around waiting for what those 55,000 employees are making. No one even wants it. Further, there are no ISVs. How can MS sell people who don't exist.
BTW, you can't will what you call waves into existence.
I guess what my feeling is Robert, is that just about everything Microsoft has to offer is available elsewhere on less restrictive terms, or as Dave said, no one wants. I don't think Microsoft can snap there fingers and create a market. Five years ago maybe, today, no.
I disagree. I've seen some stuff that Microsoft is working on that I want really badly. That's where the disconnect is. You and Dave haven't seen it. There is another technology wave coming.
I disagree again Ryan. Did you realize that more than 100,000 Tablets have been sold so far? That's at $2400 a pop. Since November 7. Yeah, no one wants Microsoft stuff? Yeah, right.
My feeling is that only established firms can really benefit from a technology wave. Startups aren't really in a position to rely upon the timely release of a new platform. They need to pick a platform that they know will be ready when they are, whereas established firms have the staying power to wait.
Absolutely false. Look at where Adobe and Aldus got their starts. They came in and rode the Macintosh wave. There was no market before then. There was no Aldus/Adobe back then.
I should have been more clear in my comment. I meant that startups are not able jump on the bleeding edge of a technology wave. Assuming the wave has some duration, there may be time to get on board later.
I have to admit to being in the main frame world in the early 80's. Googling about tells me that PageMaker 1.0 came out in July 1985 (a year after the Mac).
Right. But they can greatly beat out the late comers. Remember Borland? They didn't get into GUIs until 1991.
Well, there were other markets developing, some never made it however. Forget not Digital Research's GEM. Sadly, Apple took Digital Research to court per “look and feel” and basically killed it off. Never mind that GEM (TOS) was written by someone who came FROM Xerox PARC, of which Apple “borrowed”. GEM did thrive, for awhile, in Atari waters, and Atari also really developed the Desktop Publishing wave. History has to give some credit to (GEM) Ventura Publisher (another Xerox venture). Ventura, although it came in later, really blew the doors open. Adobe (at that time) created the Postscript Printer & Image Setter (Japanese Postscript Printer) and then the Adobe Type Library which laid the groundwork for their future software offerings. The Atari Mega ST and the Atari Laser Printer really also helped capture the whole wave. Paul Brainard’s July, 1985 (Dec. 1986, IBM ver.) release of PageMaker 1.0 was still (at that time) all in a vague haze. It wasn’t just Apple or Adobe (Aldus), it was Xerox, GEM (TOS), Atari (Calamus SL), Ventura, Commodore/Amiga and a whole host of others. Adobe and Aldus (later in 1994 merged) were merely riding a wave already forming.
From Jef Raskin’s Ph.D. thesis on the GUI to Xerox PARC and the Alto to Jobs at Nolan Bushnell’s Atari (RIP) and Woz’s Atari “Breakout” game to Apple as it is today...from MITS Altair to CP/M, and then Seattle Computer Products to MS-DOS and to the Microsoft as we know it today...history is a complex and complicated effort. Some win, some lose, but the “wave” remains.
I believe one needs to get on the bleeding edge of a technology wave, PROVIDED, it is not some hyped mythical Bubble-bath element. But, I agree with Robert, not riding a true wave and waiting “to get on board later” can be suicide. If the wave, is real, with a real market, ride it as hard as you can. Pour the coals into a good thing. Waiting will allow others to get so far ahead, as to make secondary offerings worthless. However being first doesn’t ALWAYS insure success, as secondary versions can play the market and see things that 1.0’s might miss. But missing a real wave is the clearest path to ruin. Example: Everything still hearkens back to Xerox, even Tablet PCs (Thacker, Lampson and Kay), and Xerox is the ultimate example of the danger of not riding a wave when you see it. The trick is knowing what is real, and how much is there and when to go full speed ahead. When you get it right, Empires are made of such.
It's too late for you Robert, I'm afraid you've drunk the Kool-Aid(tm)
I have, and I admit it. 
Example of a company that got on the wave too early: Corel on Windows 95. Killed a product that generally had it all going over Illustrator, but Adobe won because they waited.
Well, Corel Draw you mean? But it was far more complex than just going in early. Adobe had a full Suite of complimentary products, and the early Corel Draw versions were geared towards strict professionals; required a steep learning curve. Illustrator was more user friendly and such, if that was a result of seeing the market and waiting, then I can agree with you. But I don’t think one can't pin it all on, going in early. Sometimes people who ride in early on the wave, still don’t command anything, as the product itself has to meet market needs, but far easier if *IN* a wave, rather than against it. But merely being in the wave even if first or early, is hardly a guarantee either. But it sure gives you a head-start. All so complex, many variables at work, life is not rational, doesn’t fit into neat little boxes. But driving against the traffic, is crazy.
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