If there were a new version of IE today, Zeldman could install it manually, PC by PC across this great land, and actually have it deployed sooner than it looks like it's going to happen back here in reality-land.
Auto-updates? Sounds like Windows XP to me. 
Seriously, I think that you've emphasized something important. To ensure that users have up to date technology, there may be value to "push" out the new features as part of a product. When it comes to security, we're not even going to have a choice in the future I don't think.
I linked to Zeldman's piece, and asked "Is Microsoft trying to turn IE into the Notepad of web browsers?" Since you now seem to be the public face of Microsoft, maybe I should have just asked here.
Users just need a good reason to upgrade. Are there any high-traffic web sites out there that even IE5 can't render? IE4?
Everyday people are apathetic to the "browser plight". If they see something they want to (or are required to) check out on the Internet and they need a new browser to do it, they'll download it. It's free, all it takes is a little bit of user time and interest.
Ryan: I totally disagree. Most users are very adverse to change. Most users aren't geeks like me or you who always want the latest and the greatest. If normal users hit a site that isn't working right, they blame the guy who did the site, not the browser.
Just because they are adverse doesn't mean they won't if they *have to*. They upgraded from DOS to Windows because they had to. The endless parade of upgrades will remain endless as long as the content drives it.
No one had to upgrade from DOS. No one has to upgrade to Longhorn. Microsoft will, however, try to make it compelling for you to do that.
... sorry, posted early by mistake.
People off the street see a browser and expect a web page to be inside it. Web devlopers are trying to get cute and fancy and jam a square peg in a round hole and complain when it doesn't fit perfectly. Seems like a waste of time and resources to me.
You're absolutely right about browsers though. Developers that push the envelope "break" their web sites because the technology plateaued a long time ago as far as the users are concerned. It's time to move on to the next development platform, no?
The fact that IE won't update their browser means that a certain number of people are going to defect (primarily to Firebird, but also to Opera.) When alternate web browsers get to about 5-10% market share, web developers are going to have to start testing their sites in Mozilla as well as IE and stop playing dumb tricks like looking at the user agent or relying on browser bugs to display things correctly.
That in turn will mean it's even easier to switch away from IE.
Users don't like bad, confusing, and difficult changes, but that doesn't mean they like things the way they are. I don't know how much interaction you have with non-geek users, but I have a lot, and they hate a lot of things about IE, sometimes without even knowing that they hate them, like you hating the way people use fonts that are too small, but you don't want to mess up your browser by changing the default font size, especially since it won't work a lot of the time. Well, in my browser, it's a quick Ctrl-plus or Ctrl-minus, and it just plain works everywhere. But given the knowledge required to install and tweak Firebird, and to run it in the face of sites designed for IE-only, I don't often recommend it to people that I can't help through the process.
As to push updates, despite the way they overwrite your hacks at the core, I really think that's the one thing about Radio that you can point to and say "this is good, this is right, this is how I want everything to work." An alert that wants me to redownload entire files, reinstall them, and then reboot? No thanks. An alert that asks my permission to apply some small patches, and maybe restart the browser at the most? Add in tabs, popup blocking, and an extension architecture, and I'd be willing to go back to IE to get it.
The point is that the current IE consensus is a fragile one Robert and this is true, for different reasons, if one is a newbie or a power-user. Sure it's not a problem for Microsoft now but it easily could and it wouldn't hurt to be proactive in this case.
One controversial question: if you look at it from a business perspective, what would Microsoft lose if everyone switched over to Mozilla or Opera or some other browser?
Exactly what they gained by forcing Netscape out in the first place, no?
Microsoft has understood very well they had to come up with a broken HTML/CSS markup language, just to make sure it turn out as proprietary as any other proprietary file format. Doing so, and given the current market share, web developers just make sure the pages are well rendered using IE, USING THE SPECIFICS OF IE. They are pulling away whatever Opera/Mozilla/... audience.
As a result, if IE is not fixed, it means even more market share for Microsoft.
That's plain arrogance. You can't say Microsoft doesn't care customers, ironically.
For any reason, I believe that IEL (IE for longhorn) will not bring anything new to this subject, ie purposedly broken standards.
To say that there's no business value in the continued and reasonably timely evolution IE pretty would lead you to the wayward conclusion Microsoft wasted at least a billion-plus dollars on establishing IE as the dominant browser in the first place. While the browser as OS replacement meme is long since cold, I'm sure there is business value in the IE line and as a result there's theoretical value in maintaining its competitive position.
A small development team on the order of the resources devoted by Netscape to Mozilla would be a lot cheaper than another cable company.
What Microsoft has probably already lost is the ability to control innovation in the browser space--and I wouldn't necessarily conclude that's bad thing in the least.
I can't remember whether or not Robert pointed to this CNET piece:
http://news.com.com/2100-1032_3-
...ag=fd_lede1_hed
Brian Countryman (who is now not returning calls) seems to have stirred things up a bit by his off-the-cuff comments. IMO he was talking about two separate issues.
A new cumulative IE security patch just appeared which updates stuff such as mshtml.dll that can be said to be "part of the OS". Such updates can be pushed out just as easily to improve trident's CSS and PNG support, and should / will have to happen before Longhorn appears. A 2-3 person team working for 'x' weeks and it's done ... a serious (and cheap) technical and tactical win. Someone sufficiently senior and aware within MSFT should just take responsibility and say "Go". A no-brainer.
But I believe that Countryman was actually referring to iexplore.exe (the standalone browser frame) and probably meant "don't expect tabbed browsing or popup stopping from that app because it's the last of its type".
That doesn't really matter. Tools with which you can roll and redistribute your own custom hosts which 'wrap' MSFT components are becoming much more readily available now, so there's nothing to say that a credible standalone "IE update" won't surface from a 3rd party well before the Longhorn release.
+
I've been using an IE "wrapper" for about a year now. It's called MyIE2 (google will find it for you). The only tweaks I was forced to do when I switched to Firebird were to get it working as well as MyIE2. I don't know of any tweaks needed to make it work like IE other than downloading the autoscroll extention for people with a scrollwhell on their mouse.
From a business perspective Microsoft would lose control over a distribution channel they depend on to make money, directly or indirectly (ie. MSN, Hotmail, MSDN, etc). If MSFT controls the platform it makes it less risky for them to write to that platform.
Which is why AOL bought Netscape. Mostly to hedge their bets but they also have the option to dump IE and go with their own browser -- their own distribution channel -- freeing them from Microsoft's DHTML implementation and all of the risk that goes with using someone else's platform.
I know this isn't what people want to hear, but I feel like I have to say it: MSN is where a lot of the browser "coolness" is going in MS today:
- Roaming favorites
- Download manager
- Sidebar with links
- Messenger integration
- Keywords
With more to come...
Granted we could still (and will) do a lot more, but it is a better browser than IE for everyday users (i.e. maybe not for power users.)
From an outside observer, I can't even begin to fanthom Microsoft getting rid of IE. It's just known now as part of (what my adult students call it) a "Microsoft computer".
For example, not only is it the browser, but the same look and feel (different executable, though) is part of the My Computer/Windows Explorer programs. You can be darn sure that was done on purpose too, so that even novices would be familiar with the browser and the file management interfaces.
Standalone browsers come and go, and the fact is that most people tend to use the browser their ISP wants them to. Even if there is no "standalone" IE in the future, I'll be willing to bet that ISPs will make sure that their tech support knows how to deal with whatever Microsoft dishes out.
What browsers need is a collaborative filter.
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