Note: If you wouldn't say it to someone's face, don't say it here. Comments deleted on a whim.
Even the year Tony hit 41 home runs, he didn't even create five and a half runs per game.
Meanwhile, last year, Matthew Lecroy created five and a half runs per game.
Even if Tony Batista pulls a Cecil Fielder and hits 51 homers, he probably won't break six runs created per game.
Grumble grumble...
Even though I thoroughly despise his approach and lack of discipline, something tells me I'm going to be Jonesing for some Jacque after seeing a few Batista ABs. Ugh.
Aaron, you are a drama queen.
Gleeman, you read my mind: My first response to reading about this signing was "Not Tony F'ing Batista!" Then I flip over here and see the same sentiment... Right on!
But seriously, this signing is a frickin' joke. I can't believe that a seemingly intelligent man like TR could make such a boneheaded move.
My faith in the man is wavering, and that's saying a lot.
Another drama queen, apparently.
Well I disagree somewhat, respectfully. Sure, his OBP is disappointing, but no matter how many times the beginning of the Twins lineup would get on, and even fill, the bases, we couldn't get them home for the life of us. While Batista will 'only' get on base perhaps 30% of the time, he'll still play a key roll by getting those freakin' first three baserunners home. We couldn't do it in 2005 and we ended up losing by 1 run far too many times. I'm willing to see if he can even possibly improve from past years with a change of scenery (in the United States). Perhaps the Dome can do something for him, who knows. Perhaps Twins hitting system (often the laughing stock) can do *something* [positive] for his OBP. I'm willing to wait and see. I haven't heard what we're paying him, but it can't be much, and it IS only a one year contract.
"Tony Batista's one-year deal with the Twins is worth $1.25 million, but it isn't guaranteed.
If he's released before Opening Day, he would get only 30 or 45 days of termination pay. On top of the $1.25 million, he can earn $100,000 for 400 plate appearances, $125,000 for 450, 475 and 525, and $150,000 for 550. Batista is expected to compete for the starting job at third base. Dec. 16 - 1:11 am et"
http://fantasybaseball.rotoworld...MLB&
majteam=MIN
Sounds wonderful to me!
I'm not a huge fan of this, but let's look at it this way:
First, you're selling Batista short defensively. Quite frankly, he was one of the best in the league in 2004. While his Range Factor is his worst stat (still better than average in 2004 and over his career), he owns a career RATE of 107 (108 in 2004, so he hasn't regressed), which is excellent. On the scouting side of things, STATS, INC says that his range is slightly below average, his glove is good, and that his arm is a cannon and one of the most accurate in the league. Both the stats and the scouts say that Batista is a good-to-excellent fielder.
One of the biggest knocks against Cuddyer was his throwing errors. That will be a non-factor with Batista at 3B. At worst this is a push at third. At best, Batista has similar range and a much better arm, and is one of the better third basemen in the AL defensively.
Also, if Batista's going to bat seventh in this lineup, it wouldn't be a horrible thing. He might get on base at a clip around .290 (.294 on a .263 AVG in Japan last year), but look at it this way: if he were to get on in that seventh spot at a .400 clip, how many times would he score with the amazing cast of Ford/Cuddyer, Bartlett, Castillo, and Stewart batting directly behind him? A guy with a .100 IsoP who could hit 30 doubles and 30 homers in that 7th spot is valuable no matter what OBP he posts. If the hitters in front of him improve, he could easily knock in 90 runs.
The problem with stats like RC27 (and I'm a big believer in advanced stats) are that they don't account for a player's role on a team. If Batista is put in a position to drive in runs while minimizing the detrimental effects his poor OBP (IE, put in the seventh spot of the order), he will contribute.
RC27 is perhaps the poorest choice of sabermetric stats to use here. Obviously an entire team of Tony Batistas would score few runs; they would never get on base for each other to drive in. Fortunately, this is not a team of Batistas, and the players in front of him in the order will do the job of getting on base before he bats. As for the 72% of the time he makes an out, it's not like Bartlett and Castillo would be driving him in frequently enough to drastically affect the team if he cut that out percentage back to 65%.
Will Batista be more valuable than Cuddyer or LeCroy at 3B/DH? It's likely. Batista's 2004 WARP3 (normalized to 162 games) was 4.2. To put this in perspective, Hank Blalock's 2005 WARP3 was exactly 4.2. Cuddyer's 2005 WARP3 was 2.7. At DH, LeCroy's was 2.1. If utilized correctly, Batista will be a productive player. Getting Gardy to utilize him correctly might be an issue, though.
Finally, if the Twins are really adament that Cuddyer will not play 3B, they will need to play someone there. On the grounds that Batista is not Terry Tiffee, I tentatively like him. He's a Richard Hidalgo type risk, except he plays a tough position well and comes on the extreme cheap.
Batista isn't the ideal player for this team. He's isn't the difference-maker. He isn't even a very good player. He's a mediocre seventh hitter with good power. A semi-decent complementary player. The team still needs another player to bat fourth. But if Cuddyer must leave third, at least Tiffee won't be playing there.
Andrew, you've made a number of reasonable points, so I'm not going to try to argue with you in general. However, the idea with getting on base isn't always to be driven in by the guys batting directly behind you. It is also to avoid outs so that the top hitters on the team can come to the plate more often.
Various studies have shown that lineup order matters little in the grand scheme of an offense. In other words, Batista eating up outs and not getting on base isn't significantly easier to handle when he's batting lower in the order. Either way, he's taking far too many of the team's 27 outs and not turning the lineup over.
In a good offense, like say Boston's in recent years, the eighth-place hitter's job isn't to be driven in by the ninth-place hitter, it's to extend the inning and clog the bases. Eventually the leadoff man comes up with a runner or two on base, and before you know it the best hitters on the team are up with the potential for a big inning.
That's a legitimate, glaring fault of Batista's, and the reason that I'm still lukewarm on the acquisition.
I'm with Aaron and Andrew on this one. In no way do I think this is a spectacular signing, but it may not be as detrimental as i thought origanally. The real question will be how Gardy uses him.
I would love to see Batista as a pinch hitter/DH/3B. I'm just not a fan of pushing Cuddy out of the line up. I feel the OF is too crowded even with Jacque leaving, too merit moving him there. If we're not going to use Cuddy, let's trade him.
That's not something I would like to see happen, but it's apparent that TR has little faith in him. I thought signing Castillo meant that the 3B job was Cuddy's. Apparently not.
I'm not a fan of this move one bit. With that said, TR has gained my trust, in general, as a GM. Let's gie it some time before we jump his ass.
Like Aaron said, the contrat isn't guaranteed. He could be released during Spring Training at a small cost.
I am an Orioles and Giants fan, so my feelings are remarkably conflicted.
As an Orioles fan, you have my undying sympathy. Not only is this guy the only guy I could find who hit at least forty homers and wound up with an OPS+ of one-oh-freaking-THREE, but he looks really, really bad doing it. He's the sort of hitter that, when you see him on the screen, you turn to your buddy at the bar and say, "I have no fucking clue who that is. Must be some September callup." Even if it's May.
As a Giants fan, it gives me a glimmer of hope. I think to myself, maybe, somehow, this could be a team stupid enough to trade for Edgardo Alfonzo.
PLEASE TAKE HIM. PLEASE. WE'LL PAY THE WHOLE SALARY. PLEASE.
(Remember when he was the best player in baseball? Like five years ago? Okay, I exaggerate, but he finished behind only Kent and Giambi in win shares that year...)
What's ironic is that the Batista signing coincides with the Dodger signing of Mueller. If the Twins really believed that Cuddyer was not their man for 2006 at the hot corner, it's hard to understand why they did not take a serious run at Mueller. And if not Mueller, why not somebody like Joe Randa. Both these guys would cost $4-5MM annually which presumably is available now that Jacques Jones has been non-tendered and Romero is gone. The team management seems to be totally clueless, with no apparent plan or strategy when it comes to building the 2006 roster. Are these guys accountable to anybody for their actions ?
"Will Batista be more valuable than Cuddyer or LeCroy at 3B/DH? It's likely. Batista's 2004 WARP3 (normalized to 162 games) was 4.2. To put this in perspective, Hank Blalock's 2005 WARP3 was exactly 4.2. Cuddyer's 2005 WARP3 was 2.7. At DH, LeCroy's was 2.1."
Lecroy 2005 VORP: 17.9 in 350 PA
Batista 2004 VORP: 10.3 in 650 PA
Cuddyer 2005 VORP 14.2 in 470 PA
Here's the major problem with comparing Batista to Lecroy using WARP3. First, a significant chunk of Batista's value in 2004 was tied into his above average defense, as indicated by his 107 rate2 (and his poor VORP). The thing is, if he DH's, he won't be playing defense. Second of all, Batista's offense is being compared in relation to other third basemen, not other DH's.
As for Cuddyer, well, his WARP3 probably suffers from what all of his numbers suffer from: an abysmal April. Furthermore, Cuddyer was awful defensively, posting a rate2 of 89. I don't think Cuddyer is quite that bad defensively, and another season at the position would probably entail improved defense at the position. Considering Cuddyer's terrible defense and atrocious April a 1.2 difference in WARP3 isn't quite as drastic as I would have imagined. Furthermore, if you want some WARP3 context, consider that Aaron Boone, who hit .243/.299/.378/.677, had a WARP3 of 3.7. Ouch.
Lets stop taking shots at TRyan for not signing Mueller. The Pirates offered more money and years, did he sign? In addition to the fact that he would cost us a draft pick which TRyan hates to give up, maybe, he was going to the West Coast unless he got a totally ridiculous offer. Can't blame TRyan for not signing someone who is unsignable.
It's Cosmic Karma, Gleeman! Castillo is Yin and Batista is Yan. The Twins have restored balance to their lineup.
The more I think about it, the more I think that my major worry here is not that Batista is a bad player (though he's not really a good one so far as I can tell). We're not paying him that much money and he could be used in a an effective manner. The problem is that I know that he will not be. I am afraid that he's going to be our starting, everyday 3B or DH and hit 4th or 5th and ultimately drive me completely insane.
I don't like this move (but reserve the right to praise it effusively if it somehow turns out okay).
Ryan saw his team as the lead article on ESPN.com because they haven't had a player with over 30 HRs. So the next day he signs a player that may hit 30 HRs.
Simple explanation.
Insert tongue-in-cheek emoticon here.
If only Matt Moses would have remained healthy prior to this year. He potentially could have been ready to take over the 3B job this year.
The only way I could see Batista helping is if he was a supersub - he'd be Willie Bloomquist with power. He's a long way from his SS days so I don't see this happening. I'm afraid Twins fans will see a lot of him as DH in the middle of the order. Icky.
well I think we found our new whipping boy for gleeman. You should be happy that Terry Ryan gave you someone to replace the departed Luis Rivas.
good point. he will be better than our second base contingent last year.
good point. he will be better than our second base contingent last year.
Don't be so sure. Twins' second basemen hit .256/.320/.345 in 2005. Batista will beat that slugging percentage, but may struggle to match the overall effectiveness. Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projection over at Baseball Think Factory had Batista at .237/.270/.392, which is worse.
Damn, Aaron, nice post! TFD
If Batista's in the lineup, I will cheer him happily. I will urge him to hit timely home runs, and encourage him to make strong and accurate throws from the hot corner. Don't get me wrong; I can't stress enough how bad Tony Batista is. But when he hits into double plays, and routine fly balls to right field with a man on first, I will not boo him. When it's mid-June, and he's already made 200+ outs, I won't boo him. No, he didn't sign himself to this team. He didn't write his name in the lineup. He's just a good guy making a paycheck playing the greatest game ever invented, and I can't fault him for that.
But I will be booing Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire mercilessly all year long. In fact, I'm doing it now. From work. You should see the looks I'm getting.
i wasn't real high on Batista to begin with, but thanks for ruining my weekend, Gleeman. i'm going to go stick my head in the oven. yeesh.
i wasn't real high on Batista to begin with, but thanks for ruining my weekend, Gleeman. i'm going to go stick my head in the oven. yeesh.
Hey, it's nice and warm in here!
I don't have anything to add about Leocadio Batista, but I wanted to point out that the WBC article at THT that you have linked to was not a solo effort. Thomas Ayers is listed alongside Craig both on the site and in the ATM reports.
"I am very happy," Batista said during a telephone interview. "It's like being in the majors for the first time. Like a rookie."
http://www.startribune.com/stori...09/
5784671.html
We all know how Gardy feels about rookies, so maybe we will get lucky and Gardy will read this quote, get confused, and give ol' Batista the rookie treatment.
Come one, I have to get hope from somewhere, right?
It seems to me that Ryan is letting Gardenhire have his way with this lineup for now. It seems that the key qualifications are defense, experience, and not being in Gardy's doghouse. So Castillo and Batista are in, Romero and Cuddyer are out.
So, wild theory: is Ryan giving Gardenhire and the Twins' "aggressive slap" hitting philosophy enough rope to hang themselves?
Let's look at Ryan's situation:
Hunter, Radke, Stewart, and Nathan are all still productive, expensive (by Carl's standards), and signed through 2006 or 2007, by which time all will be declining. Notice that Castillo is now also on that list.
Silva, Lohse, Bartlett, and Rincon are effective now, have their best years ahead, but will be much more expensive come 2008 or so.
Cuddyer and Ford are not productive enough to play now or to pay in 2008 even if they improve. Romero was also here, and Lohse is on the bubble.
Mauer, Morneau, Baker, Liriano, and Kubel will still be cheap until 2008 or 2009, will be very productive then, but are not quite there in 2006.
Santana is, of course, in a class by himself. He'll be great this year, and great in 2008, but his price won't go up by then, so he'll be a bedrock of both teams.
Put it all together, and I see Ryan hedging his bets. He'll not rock Gardy's boat and give him just a little more of what he wants for 2006.
If it works, then Gardy and Kelly and "aggressive slap" are vindicated. If not, then Ryan has an excuse to go another direction, and he has the horses (Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, maybe Bartlett and Castillo) that can thrive with a more patient approach, and that will be seen as more valuable to a manager that tolerates defensive flaws.
But he's not doing anything that ties his hands for 2008, when he'll need to be spending money exactly according to which kids have grown up enough to go for it all, what kind of team he wants, and how bad Carl wants it.
I should actually be doing my Latin take-home final exam (the last one of the semester) but, what the heck, this i more fun. I haven't read everything, there has been a lot written already, but look at it this way. Let's say that Batista had the starting job, and got 99 RBI's last year. For the sake of ease, let's say that he played 3B as a starter, and Cuddyer was no where to be seen. The Twins RS last year was 688. Subtract Cuddyers 42 RBI and you get 646. You add Basista's 99 and you get 745...and we would have had stats of RS and RA's about as good as the White Sox. I odn't know, you are all way better at these stats things than I am, and I am by no means praising T-Bat as the savior of the team, but, I don't know. My guess is that TR was trying everything he could, but if someone like Mueller, or Garciaparra, or any of those high-profiled free agents did not feel that they could win in Minnesota, or didn't want to play there, then that isn't TR's fault. Especially because he can't offer the contracts that, say, the Yankees could for Nomar. I don't know, some thoughts.
For anyone looking to make an argument involving Batista's RBI total, I really suggest reading the blog entry about him from way back in 2003 that I linked to at the end of today's entry.
I am so depressed. Good article, Aaron. I ardently wish that I could disagree with you, but sadly every word is true.
Look at it this way...they just paid 1.2 million for a guy who AT BEST is no better than Cuddyer overall at 3b, and by allowing that he could be as good as Cuddyer, I'm making a HUGE stretch.
Here's hoping Batista has a hack-tastic spring training so Gardy and TR realize their monumental mistake before it's too late. Now I'm begging for Blalock or Randa to come and save us from Batista. Seriously, couldn't even Matt Moses do as good as Batista? (Not that we'd want to rush him)
Michael,
You aren't compared apples to apples, because Cuddyer would have driven in at least 10-15 more runs if he had played a full season.
Also, the increase in RBI's will be MORE than offset by the drastic reduction in RBI opportunities which will be felt by the hitters who are up after Batista (i.e. Batista will be on base MUCH less than Cuddyer would have been)
Aaron,
You are right. The worst thing about this is that it proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that TR has no idea how to construct an offense.
What's so bad about Michael Cuddyer?
aaron i am actually making a serious comment today-
why are you such a big 'stat guy?' rick majerus is not a big 'stat guy.' i have asked you this before, but statistics really never win championships.
The Royals are now going to be a team to be feared.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/sto...b/story/
5172456
That was sarcastic in case there was any doubt.
why are you such a big 'stat guy?' rick majerus is not a big 'stat guy.' i have asked you this before, but statistics really never win championships.
I'm not sure what Rick Majerus has to do with anything, but you're right. Statistics don't win championships, good players who put up good statistics win championships.
Also, has Rick Majerus ever won a championship?
Well, it seems to me that as always it comes back to payroll and organizational philosophy. Batista was signed for two reasons: he hits more than a few homeruns (the Jacque Jones fascination) and he's CHEAP!!!!
If and when the Twins sign a DH, it'll be Piazza at the high end, which I doubt and someone even cheaper at the low end, maybe Rondell White, but probably someone even less capable. I'm sure TR is trying to swing Piazza or Thomas at Batista like money.
Why are they so short of payroll? Cue the music: Carl Montgomery Burns Pohlad. All that b.s. about him raising payroll to 65 M appears to me to be b.s. They'll squeak up over 60 M but not by much.
Bear in mind: the Twins are going to commit 4.5 M to keep Kyle Lohse for another year. They will NOT go into a season with Baker, Liriano, and Guerrier as options for the 4 and 5 spots. Why? GUARANTEED, if Lohse is still here in the spring, Liriano will be back at Rochester until about June 15, ensuring he cannot compile a full year's service team for 05-06 and ensuring he will not qualify as a super two for arbitration in 2008.
They should have non-tendered Lohse if they couldn't get anything for him and MOVE ON. There are/were a few bats available but at salaries beyond TR's capability to consider--e.g. Thome, Glaus, etc.
I'm sure the Twins could have obtained Pedro Feliz from SF for Lohse, which I didn't think was such a great move, until I saw Batista's name in the lineup, batting 5th and making outs for another summer of discontent, finishing fourth in the powerful AL Central.
Tony Friggin Bautista, indeed.
Good point, at least we're not Royals fans. Poor, poor Dougie (It's My) Baseball... how the never-that-mighty have fallen.
Good point, at least we're not Royals fans. Poor, poor Dougie (It's My) Baseball... how the never-that-mighty have fallen.
Good point, comparing Feliz to Batista.
Tony Batista, a poor man's Pedro Feliz....ouch.
Dave W.,
Cuddyer won't win a Gold Glove at 3b any time soon. That's what's wrong with him. TR obviously thinks a slick fielding out machine is better.
The Twins are at about $60.9mm right now. If Jones accepts arbitration, they will be around $66-67mm, however, a player will have to be discarded...punto, LRod, etc.
If Jones goes elsewhere, they will probably sign a DH for around $5mm. Yes, it does appear that the payroll has been increased this year to the $65-66mm range.
I recall visiting your blog last summer one morning to a title "Nick F'ing Punto" and it was about Nick's heroics and game winning hit (I think). When I saw today's headline, I knew immediately it wasn't about anything good! Let's not forget Batista's fabulous batting stance too, along with his great OBP!!!
What do you expect? They're the Twins. When Rafael Furcal signs for $39 million, the ol' Twins aren't going to be in the market for very much.
I would think we could be more outraged that they want to offer arbitration to Kyle Lohse and are now willing to trade Scott Baker for Blalock. The same Baker who earlier this year was too good to trade for Alfonso Soriano. The same Lohse who has been a dick his entire career and early this year bashed the manager's door with a bat.
Kevin,
Where did you see that they're now willing to trade Baker for Blalock?
Yeah, I thought the problem was the Rangers wanted Baker and there is no way we are dealing him.
But now that we have Batista at least we probably won't trade some good prospects for Blalock. Right? Right?!?!
Not to take anything away from the fact that batista has a horrid OBP..
but i do take issue with a couple of things
mainly
"He strikes out a lot, hits into tons of double plays"
Compare:
batista 2004 (in about 600 ABs)
GIDP 14 / SO 78 / Sacfly 10
J.Jones 2005 (in just over 500 ABs)
GIDP 17 / SO 120! / Sacfly 4
M. Cuddyer2005(in just over 400 ABs)
GIDP 19!/ SO 93 / Sacfly 3
what i read into this
-with men on base batista is likely to (in the best scenario) get a dinger or (in the worst) fly out and advance the runners
--compare this with cuddy and jones' propensity to strike out and hit into DPs
I understand what's being said about clogging the bases but weirdly enough I think Batista could fit nicely. I mean if I had a nickel for every twinkie runner left in scoring position because of SO+any other out or a DP over the last few seasons..
I'm a Cub fan, and our GM has no concept of offense either. At least you guys won a few division titles.
Another way of looking at this is that Batista made 106 outs that were unequivocally unproductive (DPs X 2 + SOs) compared to 131 for Cuddy and 154 for Jones.
Aaah, the old "productive out." Is that Ron Gardenhire posting under an alias (rolandsmokum)??
Hey, maybe the Twins can go after Fernando Tatis next. He and Batista could spread the outmaking wealth between 3B and DH.
Tatis!!?
I totally forgot about that guy....
My thought on this was, "hey great the Twins signed a slugging 3B, unfortunately it's Tony Batista"
I hope to god that this mistake works out for the better...
Roger's comment on payroll may be correct...e.g. the Twins may end up at around 65 M, but this assumed they got stuck with Jones OR they spent around 5 M on a DH and made no other cost cutting moves. I'll believe it when I see it. My guess is that the actual payroll ceiling is closer to 62 or a little more (and yes, Pohlad is concerned about every dollar over/under his limit) and that the only DH we sign is for 2M or less...I don't believe they can land Piazza or Thomas, and I'm not sure about any of the rest of suspects either. Further, if you're trying to cut payroll either before or after a signing, there's non-tendering Cuddyer (a STUPID move, but Gardentool doesn't want him around, I suspect), non-tendering Punto (my dream come true), or non-tendering Lohse (or shipping him off to Baltimore for another AA shortstop). We'll see what the final numbers are.
I suppose we should be damned glad we got Castillo and figure like Gardentool that his acquisition is worth 20 or 25 wins. (Cough, cough, Gardenweasel, cough).
Now that KC has grabbed half the remaining loser pool from the FA market, do you think they have enough dough to sign JJ? JJ and Dougie reunited and it feels so good....
Terry Ryan has put his team in position to challenge the Tigers for the third spot in the AL Central. In an offseason where many key ingredients to 2006 success were available at reasonable prices, T. Ryan got us a power hitter with a .290 OPS overseas. Great move. Sure, Johan will be happy at the trade deadline when he's watching another washed-up player missing double play chances.
Quick Note: How will Joe Mauer and Co. feel at the World Baseball Classic? What is Mauer going to lean over to Derek Jeter and say "Yeah, we got a shot with this new guy we got from Japan. Could push us over the hill." Ridiculous. If Mauer and Morneau were smart, they finish their careers in different uniforms.
I have the payroll at
Hunter 10.8
Radke 9.0
Santana 9.0
Stewart 6.5
Castillo 5.0
Nathan 5.0
Silva 3.2
Batista 1.2
Castro 1.0!
Redmond 0.9
Rincon 0.9
--------------
TOTAL 52.5 for 11 players
Add Lohse for 4.0? and 12 other players for 0.35 ... that brings the total to 60.7 million.
You will have a hard time convincing me that Lohse won't be traded at some point yet. I am convinced we will sign a DH (and I would actually like it to be Rhondell White).
"In an offseason where many key ingredients to 2006 success were available at reasonable prices"
Just out of curiosity, what ingredients are you talking about? Bill Mueller? Garciaparra? Burnett? Who?
"If Mauer and Morneau were smart, they finish their careers in different uniforms"
Personally, I think they are still worried about starting their careers, rather than looking at the end. Especially since they don't have any choice about who they play for right now.
Batista is probably a bad signing, but I don't know that its worth all the doom and gloom and pronouncements of the apocalypse that it has brought down.
Andy
Good post. You have forgotten two small factors, I think.
1) Cuddyer is due for arbitration. He may get between 750K and 1 M
2) Punto is also due for arbitration. Your guess is as good as mine for the dollars. 600K?
If both are retained, the payroll figure you have is about .8 M short, so let's compromise at a current figure of 61.5 M.
I still think Ryan's limit is about 62.5, so I look for a dump of Cuddyer or Punto (probably Cuddyer, cough, Gardenweasel) and then a signing of a DH we have not yet considered...
In the spirit of this off season...
Kevin Millar. "What a great clubhouse guy. A little older, but he can still rip it," said Terry Ryan, "And we made it under our payroll limit and still have fourteen AA pitchers under our control."
Believe it.
I got roasted about three weeks ago when I suggested blow up the team now because TR/Pohlad wouldn't spend the money to improve the team, and I didn't say anyway to massive improvement for less than a 65 - 70 M payroll.
Oh, we have massive pitching, I was told.
Still want to take the devil's advocate position?
This organization is cheap, cheap, cheap, CHEAP and it will NEVER EVER change. EVER.
You really think Piazza or Thomas or whomever is left on the FA market is really going to upgrade this offense that much? I don't.
Serve em right if Jones took arbitration....that's my fantasy for the evening. BLEAH
I am still having a hard time with the seeming reality that hack-tastic Tony Batista is going to be manning 3b for the Twins next year. I'm thinking of starting the "TB Therapy" group.
How could this happen? I'd much rather have Cuddyer still at 3b (not to mention the 1.2 mill in my pocket). Cuddyer is already a much better hitter than Batista, and should still be on the improvement slope, while (though it may be difficult to conceive of this) Batista is in the decline phase, and is likely to put up worse #'s than he has in the recent past.
I don't know what the sophisticated projections say, but here are my off-the-cuff projections:
Cuddyer: 270/340/450 (17 HR)
Batista: 230/270/430 (28 HR)
Despite Batista's higher HR total, it is extremely likely that Cuddyer will have a higher SLG in 2006 than TB.
It would take a HUGE difference in fielding to cancel out Cuddyer's offensive advantage.
One thing that I'm tired of is people calling the Twins cheap. They're a small market team, without a huge TV contract, in a stadium that is not revenue producing.
I understand that people want the Twins to go out and sign big time players, but the problem is that the team only breaks even as is.
Yes, Carl Pohlad has a lot of money. But I think it is a lot to ask of someone, even a really rich guy, to start eating $10, 15, 20 million dollars a year so that he can have a competitive baseball team.
Frankly, either the team is going to have to get a new TV contract (they had tried victory sports) and a new stadium otherwise we're looking at about how high the payroll is going to get. The Twins are not going to be the Yankees or even the Indians.
Rick Majerus story, since he was mentioned out of nowhere before...
I scored myself some suite tickets to the 2000 NCAA Championship game(FLA vs. MSU) in Indy. It was great; all-you-can eat and drink with the buffet set up along the rear wall.
Anyway, Rick Majerus was also in this suite. I have no idea how we ended up in a suite with this psuedo-celebrity, but I suspect it had something to do with that particular suite having the best food in the building.
So before the game starts, I'm chatting him up about who will win the game, etc. -- He's very nice, and obviously knows his basketball. -- when he asks me to join him at the buffet. He picks up a folding chair, (The only one in the room.) and puts it in front of the buffet. He then starts double-fisting shrimp coctail and hot dogs, the whole time continuing his conversation with me.
There's no real point to the story, but I think it says a lot about him. He's a nice guy, but he, quite literally, needs to push himself away from the buffet.
Aerto- Mueller signed for 2 yr., $9 million. A bargain that by today's standards and a fight the Twins could have won. Scott Elarton, possible No. 5 starter given Terry Ryan had the balls to make a trade for Blaylock, 2 yr., $8 million.
Burnett? We were never in that sweepstakes. Garciaparra? For $6 million, he might just be. But, hey, good arguement. I loved the Burnett addition.
As for Morneau and Mauer, I meant that it will be tough to secure them in the long-run because they are watching the rest of the league upgrade while the Twins' search the Japaneese market for a power hitter. Has to be frustrating given that they have so much potential.
It is good to know that Mlb.com is reporting we're still in the Reggie Sanders sweepstakes, because he will bring another bat to the lineup.
1. It's spelled BLALOCK. How many times does this argument need to be made? His road numbers have been terrible and he sucks against lefties. The Twins don't need that, especially if Baker or more is the price.
2. Pittsburgh offered Mueller more money and 3 years but he turned it down because LA gave him a limited no-trade clause and he wanted to play on the west coast. The Twins never really had a chance on this one. The Red Sox giving him arbitration put it away for good.
3. Scott Elarton sucks. This season he had a WHIP of 1.30 and allowed 32 HR in the best pitchers park in AL. There's a reason he's cheap as dirt.
If you're going to talk about cheap players, at least pick ones who don't totally suck or that the Twins have at least a chance of getting, such as Arizona/Cincinnati prospects, Petagine, Rondell White, or Thomas.
While I'm not normally a fan of the "productive outs" statistic, I think it's something worth looking at in the case of Batista. Granted, he has a horrible career OBP, but he is a guy who will at least do something with runners on base. Michael Cuddyer might put up decent stats, but I watched almost every game last year and in important situations I specifically recall him striking out, grounding into double plays, and having absolutely terrible at-bats CONSTANTLY. He is completely clueless at the plate. I will take a lower on-base percentage for a more professional hitter who can execute a sac fly and won't consistently kill rallies like Cuddy did all last year.
I you think Tony Batista is going to impress you with his approach at the plate and be a professional hitter, you clearly haven't seen him a whole lot. He hits like he's involved in a home run derby with a time limit.
I used the Burnett addition to illustrate that there were not very many good players on the market at reasonable prices. Mark is dead on right about Mueller. Garciparra was probably not realistic. Good players, like Burnett and Ryan, went for ridiculous amounts of money considering their abilities. It was a good year to be a decent free agent. Batista is a bad signing, but lets not act like the Twins missed out on signing a bunch of great players for little money. Bash Ryan for signing Batista, not for failing to sign nonexistent players who would have been good deals.
With all due respect, Dave, I am sick and tired of hearing about how the Twins don't make any money. That's bull. Absolute and total bull. Any "losses" that Pohlad takes on operating this ballclub are MORE than offset by the tax effect on his other money making operations. Bear in mind also that he has been "making" money right along in the appreciation of the franchise (an unrealized gain) that will be realized if and when he sells. He lends the Twins money from his banks, for Chrissake, and he makes money on both ends of that proposition.
The Twins get ungodly sums of revenue sharing money, TV money, etc., and you nor Pohlad nor el Sid nor J.C.Christ or J.C.Romero is going to tell me that Carl Pohlad loses money on this operation. Period. It's a damned fantasy. You really think a guy worth 2.8 Billion (with a B) would actually lose money on ANY type of operation with the frequency claimed by the Pohlads. They didn't get into the Forbes Fabulous 100 by being stupid.
So they are CHEAP. C-H-E-A-P!!! I'm not one of these idiots who deny the Twins some kind of profit, but under the current system, neither can anyone convince me that spending 75 M on this club would force them into a losing situation.
BTW, if they get a new stadium, wanna bet the payroll goes up? I wouldn't bet the farm, which is why the legislature (intelligently, in my mind) won't give it to them. Every dollar gained by the new "revenue streams" is a dollar offset in lost revenue sharing money. The only one who benefits from a new stadium is Pohlad. Obviously it would be "nice" for the fans, but as for pure money, CARL WINS.
Sorry for the rant, but this b.s. that these teams are losing money is such freaking crapola it makes me ill. There is a difference between a "paper" or "operating" loss and a real dollar loss.
I just think that any kind of argument that Pohlad should throw money down the drain is a bit absurd. The Twins are doing what every small market team has to do which is make good decisions.
Yes, Pohlad is going to clear tons of money on an eventual sale/contraction, but the fact of the matter is that sports teams just don't make money. Rich people buy them because they think it is fun to buy a sports team, not because they are going to make a ton of cash. Red McCombs, who made a windfall off the Vikings, is the exception rather than the rule.
I agree with you somewhat that Pohlad could pay more. Plenty of teams lose lots of money a year because their owner doesn't really care what it costs to put out a winning team, see the Texas Rangers from a few years ago with Tom Hicks.
But a simple look at the Twins payroll/attendance proves that its not cheapness, at least not any more cheapness than other teams.
The Twins had the 20th highest payroll in baseball this year. They had the 22nd highest attendance. The only teams with a higher payroll than the Twins and a lower attendance were the Florida Marlin and the Cincinnati Reds. The other 6 teams with lower attendances all had lower payrolls. So I think that "cheapness is relative."
The only teams with lower payroll and higher attendances were Oakland, Texas, Washington and Milwaukee. So those teams are probably the "cheapest." But Washington is in a sweetheart phase, Texas is trying to get out from years of having one of baseball's highest payrolls, and Oakland also plays in a terrible stadium. Milwaukee is clearly the only "cheap" team there, but they are in a rebuilding phase.
So I think to call the Twins "cheap" is to just not do your research. If your contention is that all MLB owners should pay more on payroll, fine, but that's not going to help the Twins any. They're exactly where they should be based on their attendance.
The Twins also have some of the cheapest tickets in the league.
Whether a new stadium will help or not I don't know, but it certainly will give the Twins new revenue streams from parking, concessions, and luxury boxes that they don't have now. Whether the state should pay for it is an entirely different issue than whether or not it would allow a higher payroll.
So I don't really buy this whole idea that you have Carl "Montgomery Burns" Pohlad counting his dollars while Twins fans cry out for help. We'd all love it if Pohlad went and signed Johnny Damon and Brian Giles but it's not going to happen. And it doesn't happen to any team in the Twins' situation.
Plus plenty of teams, like the Tigers, Orioles, Mariners, Reds, Cubs, Padres, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers spent more money than the Twins and had a worse record. And the Mets had the third highest payroll in the league and did the same.
The Athletics and Indians had lower payrolls and did better.
So simply it's not about how much you spend it's what you do with it. Signing Tony Batista? That's just stupid, whether you have money or not.
I you think Tony Batista is going to impress you with his approach at the plate and be a professional hitter, you clearly haven't seen him a whole lot. He hits like he's involved in a home run derby with a time limit.
Haha, that is a hilarious analogy. I have seen Batista play a decent amount when he played for the Jays and Orioles, and I just don't recall him being as awful as everyone makes him out to be.
I guess all I'm saying, Mr. Gleeman, is let's wait until we've seen him play in a Twins uniform before we all condemn Terry Ryan and act like the world is coming to an end. I seem to recall some pretty negative reactions from the Twins community, including yourself, when Ryan traded a blossoming star by the name of Bobby Kielty to the Blue Jays for a leadoff hitter who was at that time hitting just .294/.347/.449. Then he just went and hit .322/.384/.470 over his 65 games with the Twins and pretty much single-handedly carried a struggling team to the playoffs. Kielty, on the other hand, has not hit .300 and has not slugged .400 since leaving the Twins after putting up a .291/.405/.484 line in '02.
Then he just went and hit .322/.384/.470 over his 65 games with the Twins and pretty much single-handedly carried a struggling team to the playoffs.
Sorry, my hyperbole meter exploded and I wasn't able to finish reading what you wrote. Also, Tony Batista has played 1,179 games in the major leagues. I don't need to see him play for the Twins to say he stinks.
I don't know that its worth all the doom and gloom and pronouncements of the apocalypse that it has brought down.
Understatement of the year.
We'd all love it if Pohlad went and signed Johnny Damon and Brian Giles but it's not going to happen. And it doesn't happen to any team in the Twins' situation.
Do you think Pohlad or his heirs would sign the post-new ballpark equivalents of Damon (ack, anyway) or Giles> Dream on. The payroll might go up a relative pittance and the Pohlads will laugh all the way to the bank after the gullible public builds them shiny new stadium. I'd hate to see the Twins go away, but if you think a new ballpark will suddenly have the billionaire owners throwing money around, dream the heck on. They won't be satisfied and they'll be back in a couple of years looking for another handout.
Yes, Carl Pohlad has a lot of money. But I think it is a lot to ask of someone, even a really rich guy, to start eating $10, 15, 20 million dollars a year so that he can have a competitive baseball team.
Count me in the camp that doesn't believe the ownership is losing money at all, let alone multi-millions. But if they are, no, I don't think it's too much to ask to field a competitive baseball team. Especially if you're a billionairre with more money than God, asking for the public to build you a ballpark.
All that said, and while I don't think you can operate at $55M for seasons on end, I'm not sure expanding the payroll is a cure-all. There's another local franchise that did that a couple years ago and the end result was no rings, barely a whiff of the postseason and "a failed experiment."
I don't want to get this mixed up with the stadium debate. For every team like San Diego that greatly increased the payroll there's been a Pittsburgh and Milwaukee that haven't.
However, my point isn't that Pohlad will start dumping money in left and right if he gets a new stadium. My point is they aren't making a lot of money in the Metrodome because there are no speciality concession stands, they don't own the luxury boxes, and they have no on-site parking. Plus it keeps attendance down because it is a terrible place to watch baseball.
My point is that I doubt a team playing in a low-revenue stadium that's in the bottom third of the league in attendance is going to be reaping huge windfall profits.
And as much as I agree with you that it would be good PR for Pohlad to drastically increase payroll, I don't think "he has a lot of money" is a good argument why he should throw it away.
Maybe the best reason for the new stadium is that they are wonderful places for us, the fans, the watch baseball. It is us who will enjoy the game in a beautiful outdoor ballpark. Go to Denver, Milwaukee or any of the others and enjoy the game the way it was meant to be played.
Dave
In response to your commentary, no one asked Pohlad to "throw money down the drain." What I'm saying is
1) No major league baseball team loses money on a regular basis. They just don't. You call out for more "research." Have you seen the Twins' books? Or has any other living fan not connected to ownership? Do you think when these billionaires cry poverty, it might make their case if they showed us in real figures where they "lost" money. Nobody in the media really sees the books. What does that tell you?
Like I say, my argument is based on the fact that teams do not fold due to lack of money and there are always plenty of people who want to buy major league franchises. Only MLB in its blind greed sought to contract the Twins, NOT because the Twins were losing money, only that it cost the rest of the league money to subsidize them...that's a different animal than claiming a team is actually losing money. The Twins don't make as much money as the Yankees. That's clear. Pohlad doesn't have as much invested in the team as does Steinbrenner either. I'll bet if you add it all up (and who can verify any of this), Pohlad makes more as a percentage of his investment than virtually any major league ball club.
2) You continue to harp that there are teams which spend more money and don't do well. Fine. That is sort of like arguing that because the idiot down the street jumps in the lake after a fish, and you didn't follow him into the water, you're somehow a genius, even though you have no fish either! Taking the argument to a very narrow example. The Twins spent about 57 M on payroll last year. Under my assumption, they did not lose money. They will probably settle for between 63 and 65 M this year, yet we KNOW they had increased revenue to the tune of over 13 M dollars from the satellite radio deal, and from revenue sharing, plus they will derive another massive amount of money from the eventual sale of the Nationals, at least 15 - 20 M per team (one time money, I realize). Is it really so naive, ignorant, and "fan-ish" to expect a larger dedication of that money to putting a competitive team on the field?
3) Pohlad shouldn't throw money away, but every once in awhile they could exceed the usual pattern of doing business and float the money to try and contend. Their window is closing fast in regard to having the kind of pitchers that could win a world series. Either go for it now or rebuild the position players while you attempt to hold on to Santana and the rest of the younger pitchers. This half assed approach neither wins a title nor rebuilds for the future---it guarantees a third or fourth place finish. Maybe this isn't the year to "go for it." Fine. Then trade Hunter and get on with rebuilding for a future run. Tony Batista is NOT the answer...it's an insult to pretend that he is.
The reason owners like Pohlad get away with this type of behavior is that fans still go to the games, support the team, and insist that they are "great fans" because of this behavior. My favorite "fan revolt" in sports history was watching disgruntled NY Football Giants fans standing up en masse after another lousy season and simply declaring "25 years of lousy football...we've had enough." Attendance plummeted and the Maras had to find Parcells, pay him, and increase their financial commitment to the ballclub. Major league owners (with a few notable exceptions) only spend money if they feel they must improve the product to draw more fans. As long as the Twins draw 2 million for a mediocre ballclub, nothing will change.
"when Ryan traded a blossoming star by the name of Bobby Kielty to the Blue Jays for a leadoff hitter"
You know people often point to this trade as one of TR's greatest success's.
Was it really though?
First off, Toronto was not contending. Shannon Stewart was in the last year of a fairly lucrative contract and was not going to re-sign with the Jay's. Like non-contending teams do the Jays sought to dump their high dollar free agents in the second half of their walk year. TR essentially traded the Twins top outfield prospect and a PTBNL for a rent-a-player. It worked out well and one of the very few "win now" moves TR has made. Really wasnt that great of deal objectively
It wasnt earth-shatteringly good at the time and was very risky.
Long-term, Im not sure it was that great a move either. SS has given the Twins 2 years of below average corner outfield play and oft injured for around $6 million per. If 2006 isnt a significant rebound year for Stewart I would consider it a failure.
1) I never said the Twins were losing money. I said that they would lose money if they made a commitment to a $85 million payroll (a $20 million increase). That puts them in the same league as Seattle who draws 8000 more fans every game (648,000 more per year) at $24 per ticket on average. Seattle therefore makes $15 million extra on just the increased attendance ticket sales alone. Plus they own parking and concessions and luxury boxes.
The Twins significantly less than that $15 million annually. The Twins have the 27th highest ticket prices in the league to the Mariners' 5th highest and the 20th best attendance, they don't own hardly any parking, they don't own the luxury boxes, there's not much in stadium advertising, and concessions are not right.
Does this mean they are losing money by the fistful? No. But what it does prove is that they're just spending what all teams in their revenue area spend. Every team in the Twins' area gets revenue sharing and it's not like they are blowing the roof off their payrolls either.
I just find your argument, which essentially boils down to that every team in baseball is cheap, to not be particularly persuasive. If that was true, there would be a few midmarket teams with competitive owners who spend lots of money to be competitive in a small market and a quick glance at the league payrolls and attendances can tell you that's not the case.
Plus, if every team in baseball is cheap, then it's not hurting the Twins at all to be cheap.
2) As for the increase in money from satellite radio, they are already committed to increasing their payroll around $8 million despite no promises for an increase in attendance, and, in fact, a likely decrease since they won't be winning the division this year. And for the Nationals, the team isn't sold yet to my knowledge and probably won't sell until a stadium plan there is in place, so jumping the payroll $20 million this season would be pretty speculative.
3) I semi-agree with you here. It might be a good business decision to put in a lot of money this season and try to contend. The problem is that there just aren't the players to do it. You can't put in a lot of money just one season because the best free agents require long term big money deals. So if they were to go after a top free agent they'd be committing $10-15 million a year for 5 years. That's not a "this year" problem thats a "number of years" problem.
The fact of the matter is that yelling at TR or Pohlad to increase payroll is a cop-out. The A's have been one of the best teams in baseball with one of the lowest payrolls for years.
I'd love it if Pohlad starting rolling $100 million payrolls every year, but he didn't get rich by being stupid.
wow... i think the jaded skepticism is getting a bit out of hand when the stewart trade gets thrown around as a failure. Stewie hasnt been outstanding per se, but where the crap would the twins be without his bat (one of the 2 consistent hitters on the team last year and before mauer pretty much the only one). I know everyone's been hoping for bigger things but I still consider this offesason adequate by twins standards (on the grounds of Castillo alone) and very good if they get anyone to DH.
Lastly - and i'm sure this is gonna incite furor - I'm gonna say that the combo of 3B Batista and RF Cuddyer/Kubel will be a definite improvement over 3BCuddyer and RF Jones
I didnt say the trade wasnt a success. For a "win now" move it worked well. The Twins were floundering and Stewart helped turn that season around but no more so then Gardy finally figuring out by far his best starter was throwing middle relief in his bullpen.
The extension of Stewart for the money he got hasnt turned out that great. For all his laurels Stewart isnt that great of a lead-off hitter, isnt that great of a fielder and has been hurt the last two years.
He also wants the Twins second best hitter last year. Hunter, Jones, Ford, Cuddyer and Morneau all had better overall seasons. In Stewarts defense it was his worst season as a pro.
In pure success that trade doesnt even began to compare with Pierzynski rip-off or Ryan's dismantling of the Yankee farm system in 1997, which is still payign dividends.
It wasnt earth-shatteringly good at the time and was very risky.
Long-term, Im not sure it was that great a move either. SS has given the Twins 2 years of below average corner outfield play and oft injured for around $6 million per. If 2006 isnt a significant rebound year for Stewart I would consider it a failure.
Uhhh... Two years of below average play? So you feel his .304/.380/.447 line in 2004 was pretty sub-par? You have got to be kidding me. Just because he had a down year last year, which had a lot to do with nagging injuries, you can't try to claim that he is a below average player. 6 million a year for the type of production he gave us in '04 and half of '03 is a bargain. And he still was a more consistent hitter last year than Hunter, Jones, Ford, Cuddyer, or Morneau, all of whom by your standards had better seasons (which is HIGHLY disputable, I don't know what you base that on, baseball isn't all about home runs bud).
Furthermore, you fail to address the fact that Bobby Kielty has done nothing since he left. He has never approached the production he had in the Metrodome with the Blue Jays or Athletics.
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