Note: If you wouldn't say it to someone's face, don't say it here. Comments deleted on a whim.
RonDL has looked brutal so far. Yet the Twins have started him every game. I think it is too early to bench him, but maybe moving him down 2 spots in the order or even giving him a day off to get his swing straightend out would be good.
Radke's stats scare me, more so because he was coming off of a shoulder injury. I don't think he is 100 % healthy and for pitcher like Radke that can spell trouble.
It was frustrating to see the Twins give up on Kubel so quickly in the lineup. He played a week and sat the bench most of the weekend. At this point they are better off sending him down to get some AB's.
I'm not sure your readers will be handle that much positive thinking Aaron. Prepare for casualties!
My brother had a good joke, though don't know if he heard it somewhere else. What's black and white, can't walk, and can't clean up after itself?
Rondell White.
Nicely stated, Aaron. There a lot of stuff here for people to ponder. And I appreciate the grudging admiration you've developed for Batista. As a Bartlett guy from way back -- 2005, anyway -- I know what it's like to swallow hard.
Has Michael Cuddyer ever come up with a meaningful hit? His solo home run came with the Twins up 7-2 against Oakland and his double came with them down 9-2 against New York. This all just supports my feeling that, while at times a capable major league player, Cuddyer is one of the worst players under pressure that I've ever seen.
"Help Me" Rondell has been terrible. He started off the season looking good, hitting the ball well, laying off the big time sucker pitches, producing wihtout hits, etc. But his tough start has changed him and now he is pressing quite a lot. It is blatantly obvious to see by just watching him hit. He is swinging at two strike pitches we wasn't before.
I'm not worried about Rondell. His major league track record is that of a strong hitter. Gardy just needs to do something to get his head back in the right place. It could be moving him down in the order for a bit, it could be benching him for 2 or 3 until we leave town (remove him from trying to impress the home fans), it could be having Koskie send him one of his chairs. THis is the one kind of thing I really believe in Gardenhire in, player mindset.
As it is, Castro and Bastista's strong play has ofset the loss of an abysmal White. When Castro and Batista come down to earth and stop hitting well at all, White's break out will compensate.
Honestly, White's struggles make me more optomistic about the future since I am very confident he will recover and our offense is doing pretty good without him.
Has Michael Cuddyer ever come up with a meaningful hit? His solo home run came with the Twins up 7-2 against Oakland and his double came with them down 9-2 against New York. This all just supports my feeling that, while at times a capable major league player, Cuddyer is one of the worst players under pressure that I've ever seen.
Michael Cuddyer in "close and late situations" from 2003-2005: .272/.365/.500. He hit .261/.333/.430 overall during that time, so certainly an argument can be made that he was "clutch." At the very least your memory of Cuddyer is very selective.
Looks like Seattle has put Roberto Petagine on the trading block. He has a double, a homerun, and a walk in 4 plate appearances this season all coming off the bench. It certainly wouldn't take much to get him, and they are looking for a utiliy middle infielder. If they would be willing to take Nicky P., then that would free up a roster spot to call backup Bartlett.
Petagine could DH against righthanders, get some pinch-hit at-bats and fill in at 1st base as needed.
The twins can't afford to have White stinking it up much longer. A guy who is hitting .085, and on pace to strike-out 200 times, has no business starting everyday and hitting cleanup.
Looks like Seattle has put Roberto Petagine on the trading block. He has a double, a homerun, and a walk in 4 plate appearances this season all coming off the bench. It certainly wouldn't take much to get him, and they are looking for a utiliy middle infielder. If they would be willing to take Nicky P., then that would free up a roster spot to call backup Bartlett.
First, they're not going to call Bartlett up just because they have a roster spot free. No one wants him sitting on the bench.
Second, the Twins could have had Petagine for nothing this offseason and I didn't even hear his name mentioned once. I doubt they'd be interested in now trading something for him.
Third, it wouldn't open up a spot since Petagine would just replace Punto on roster.
People, people, people, be patient with White. Look at the man's track record. He's pressing. He'll come around. Refer to my previous post.
First, they're not going to call Bartlett up just because they have a roster spot free. No one wants him sitting on the bench.
It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to keep him down in the minors to rot, he isn't getting any younger, and has nothing left to prove. Even if he gets 1-2 starts a week, and is used off the bench for the next month or 2, eventually Castro will come back to earth and Bartlett will be back starting at SS.
Second, the Twins could have had Petagine for nothing this offseason and I didn't even hear his name mentioned once. I doubt they'd be interested in now trading something for him.
Thats because TR had already promised Sierra the Pinch-hitter job before he looked to see what else is out there. I was thinking that maybe there was a chance that he has finally figured out that Sierra is injury prone and near worthless.
And by trading Punto the twins aren't exactly giving up anything of value. Sure he's a veteran and is decent defensively, but we have 3 guys that are better than him, that could take his spot.
Stick with RondDL. If he stays healthy, he hits. Right?
As per RondDL --- at what point have we waited long enough?
Has Michael Cuddyer ever come up with a meaningful hit?
Clutch Cuddyer:
http://www.retrosheet.org/
boxese...9070BAL2004.htm
http://www.retrosheet.org/
boxese...4050MIN2004.htm
http://www.retrosheet.org/
boxese...7220MIN2004.htm
And there was also a game against Oakland on the road last season that Retrosheet hasn't archived yet ... and those were just off the top of my head
As per RondDL --- at what point have we waited long enough?
I'm not sure, but the answer certainly isn't "two weeks."
Is it true that Mauer said Morneau could use as many of his (Mauer's) bats as he wanted because he (Mauer) "doesn't need them"?
I don't know about not needing them. Mauer hasn't broken any and Morneau has broken 6, but J-Mo said in the paper that "Chairman" Joe "The Golden Boy" Mauer said he could use as many as he wants as long as he keeps getting hits.
I was exaggerating in pondering whether or not Cuddyer has ever delivered a meaningful hit in his career. Will, your box scores are good examples of games which Cuddyer affected with big late hits, but all of them are from 2 years ago. I was actually at the game in Oakland where he had the key hit last year, but that was one of the few times he delivered in a crucial situation all of last season. Cuddyer might have been able to deliver late in games in the past, but last year he was just not good in key situations (.244 "close and late," .204 with RISP) and that seems to have carried over to this year, at first blush.
There are various aspects of Cuddyer's track record that lead me to believe he simply does not handle pressure well. For the past couple years he has put up great numbers in the relatively low-pressure and non-competitive environment of spring training, but then when April rolls around and he's facing good pitching and trying to prove that he deserves a starting spot, he is terrible. His best month last season was September, when the Twins were effectively out of the playoff race. While Cuddy has put up respectable numbers in his career, he rarely seems to do his damage at opportune times. 25 of his 33 career home runs have come with the bases empty.
I don't have any type of vendetta against Cuddyer, I'd love to see him break out and become the type of player his minor league numbers suggested he would become. Unfortunately, his power potential has never shown itself at the major-league level and he's never hit better than .263. To me, he just seems like a guy who feasted on minor league pitching but will never really be able to handle good major league pitchers. He looks just as lost at the plate right now as he did as a rookie.
Cuddyer seams like he could be a guy who needs to get comfortable where he is to suceed. I'm not so sure if his struggles aren't partly atributable to him being constantly on a short leash audition for Gardenfire.
I think it's way too early to be sounding the warning bell on Crain. He's had 5 freaking bad innings and all of a sudden you're proven right about him having a bad year? All of a sudden you have to question his very approach to pitching? He's gotten through 106 innings at the major league level VERY effectively. He also has an impeccable minor league track record, albeit with much better peripherals. 106 innings is a hell of a lot more significant than the 5 he's pitched this season, and while his peripherals are beyond bad, there are some pitchers who don't need to strike you out to get you out. Dan Quisenberry did it very effectively for a long time, and if anyone looks like a young Dan Quisenberry, it's Jesse Crain. So I'd wait more than 5 innings before patting yourself on the back for the Crain prediction
He didn't say it proved him right so much as supported the prediction he made. Nowing Crains periphrials, I too was worried about him, idependantly of Aaron's predictions, coming into this season. His current lack of sucess certainly doesn't assuage our fears.
I do believe, however, that despite tonights troubles, Guerrier is ready to step up and take Crain's spot in the set up role this year. THough, his early numbers aren't very good either.
When he quotes his own prediction, I'd call that back-patting.
I can see waiting more than two weeks for White to get out of this funk, but what I simply cannot wrap my mind around is why he hasn't been moved down in the order during this stretch. It's not like he's taking walks and just struggling to find holes and collect some hits.
And Gardenhire might also want to put a bat back in Mauer's hands.
When Gardy told Crain he'd be taking over for JC, I think Jesse misunderstood him...
I share your same concerns about Crain, Aaron, but I also think it's possible that Crain's style just won't be that effective against the really premier hitters you see in the Yankees' lineup, and to a lesser extent, the other lineups we've faced. It's just a guess, but when you put lesser hitters up there, Crain seems to be able to make them miss just enough that it's a catchable fly ball or pop fly. When you put Gary Sheffield or Alex Rodriguez up there, though, Crain can't do much of anything to keep them from teeing off.
I don't know that the last two weeks have really changed my opinion of Crain very much, as a major league pitcher, his success seems to come mostly with smoke and mirrors, and it's always tough to know which pitchers can keep that up and which pitchers are just riding out a good couple of years.
I think it's way too early to be sounding the warning bell on Crain. He's had 5 freaking bad innings and all of a sudden you're proven right about him having a bad year?
I'm not proven right about anything. I said I thought he'd struggle and he's struggled.
Dan Quisenberry did it very effectively for a long time, and if anyone looks like a young Dan Quisenberry, it's Jesse Crain.
Have you seen/read/heard anything about Dan Quisenberry beyond his low strikeout rate? Comparing him to Crain is fairly ridiculous on a number of levels.
So I'd wait more than 5 innings before patting yourself on the back for the Crain prediction
I'm not patting myself on the back. I wrote on Thursday that I thought Crain will continue to struggle this season despite a track record of success and he immediately went out and struggled. I thought what I wrote was relevant to today's post, so I quoted it. It's not part of my master plan to make me look like an all-knowing genius.
When he quotes his own prediction, I'd call that back-patting.
You can call it whatever you want, but despite what you may think the purpose of this blog is to entertain and inform people, not to constantly show how I have predictive powers.
BTW, I think it's amusing that the second comment here today, just moments after I posted the above entry, was: "I'm not sure your readers will be handle that much positive thinking Aaron."
Me? I had no doubt that someone would find fault with one of the few negative things I wrote about. That's just how it goes here every day.
"...the purpose of this blog is...not to constantly show how I have predictive powers."
I feel so let down...
i made sure that Rondell heard my boos yesterday when i was at the game. but in my opinion, Garden hire should be booed just as loudly for allowing Rondell to bat cleanup EVERY DAY.
when the guy that's been batting cleanup is averaging 1 hit per 3-game series, maybe it's time to bump him down a few spots in the order or give him a day off.
Rondell looked especially clueless in his last at-bat, with his 3 check-swings.
i made sure that Rondell heard my boos yesterday when i was at the game.
No offense to you personally, but I think the people who have been booing White at the Metrodome are silly (and worse). What exactly are you booing him for? Playing poorly? And if that's the case, what does the booing accomplish? I'll never understand it.
I would boo someone if they weren't giving a good effort or if they did something to specifically upset the fans (like Knoblauch has done, for instance), but in White's case I think booing is pretty misguided.
Generally speaking, I think the home crowd booing a player who is giving a genuine effort (Cleveland fans booing LeBron James earlier this year, for instance) is one of the worst things about sports fans.
i almost never boo, but it's been really frustrating to watch Rondell so far. 2 RBI from him with those 3 hitters in front of him is unacceptable. but like i said, Gardenhire deserves some of the blame. i dont doubt that Rondell isn't trying his hardest, but i guess booing was just my way of venting a little.
I was really impressed with Cuddyer's arm strength and accuracy. That's something that's been missing in the Twins OF for some time (Hunter's arm is solid for CF, but nothing special). We're not talking about Ichiro out there or anything, but I do like the fact that teams are going to be more reluctant to take the extra base or try to score on the short SF with Cuddyer out there. Now, if he can only manage to hit .270 or so...
Rondell White is looking badly out of synch, but it's way too early to give up on him. Unfortunately, they're no one worth mentioning that could spell him at DH right now, let him get his confidence back. before this weekend, I would have agreed with the proposition that he was hitting the ball hard and just at people, but he looked awful against the Yankees, and it seems like the slump was affecting his mental approach at the plate. But I'm not going to really worry about him unless this keeps up for another 10-12 games and Gardy replaces him with Sierra...
Regarding Castillo: I agree he's looking terrific. It may be a little harsh to blame Gardy for the bunting, since he was quoted in the paper about that issue and wanting Castillo to get away from that small-ball mindset. Hopefully, Castillo will ease up on this and swing away more. But he's a great guy to have hitting ahead of Mauer.
The Padres batted Rob Bowen clean-up yesterday. So it possibly could get worse than having Rondell hitting 4th (or even Redmond hitting 3rd). Of course, Bowen went 1-3 with a HBP, so it worked out.
Aaron
I think it is a mistake to blame Gardy for iffy in-game management for when Castillo has bunted this year. I am pretty sure that on both of those bunts Castillo did it on his on.
I can agree wtih you that he has been slow to pull starting pitchers, especially with the bullpen the Twins have.
I think it is a mistake to blame Gardy for iffy in-game management for when Castillo has bunted this year. I am pretty sure that on both of those bunts Castillo did it on his on.
There have been more than two. And even if Castillo has done each one on his own, that's the type of thing a manager still has control over.
I think the home crowd booing a player who is giving a genuine effort is one of the worst things about fans.
That's what I was saying about the Castro/Bartlett and Batista signings. I'm not HAPPY to be watching someone like Castro take away at bats from Bartlett, but I ain't going to BOO him.
Turns out, thru 12 games at least, I'm all good.
possible that Crain's style just won't be that effective against the really premier hitters you see in the Yankees' lineup
That is a great point. The Yankees have a lineup of $$XXX million dollars. I'm not going to fault Crain too much for getting crushed by A-Rod, and Sheffield. We'll see how he handles some of the lesser duos like Manny and Ortiz, or Konerko and Thome... er.
Ryan signed Rondell. There's the problem right there. Gardenhire has to play the best players he has on his roster. And despite how crappy he is hitting, White is worlds better than the options in front of Gardenhire.
Here's the real problem...If he gets 400 PAs, that's 3mm guaranteed for next year. It escalates to the point where if he gets 650 PAs, he will earn 8.5mm next year.
OUCH
If I were a manager I would be pretty upset if a player sacrifice bunted on his own, and not merely due to any personal feeling about the utility of the sacrifice bunt (particularly in the 1st inning). Sacrifice bunting is strategy and should be the manager's call. Bunt for a hit, fine. Trying to go the other way or trying to hit a sac fly in certain situations, fine. But that Castillo stuff would really piss me off… kind of like Peyton Manning deciding to go for it on 4th down.
That said, I love what he’s done otherwise – how stoked was he in the 9th on Saturday night?
Anyone else noticing that Morneau seems noticably more comfortable at the plate? I know his numbers are up, and in the games I've been watching (little over half of them) he's looked fantastic. Seems like he's not trying to deposit every pitch into the right-field upper deck this year... though that certainly happens when he gets a hold of one.
Personally, I liked seeing Ford out in RF on Friday night instead of Cuddyer. Hope White snaps out of it, he had some really ugly swings over the weekend. Hitters strike out and fielders boot balls, if they are playing hard then I don't see why they should be booed.
Castillo went to his right for a ball on Friday night came up on his knees and threw it past Morneau for an E...should everyone have booed him then?
Castro has been playing well so far, like you said. His 7th inning hit off Mussina on Friday was a great at bat where he hung in there and then came through.
You mentioned Santana and Radke but you left out Silva and Lohse, who have been even worse. The Twins starters rank 26th in MLB in ERA (6.21). They would be 28th (6.79) if it wasn't for their #5 starter, Scott Baker. And this was supposed to be one of their strengths! The sooner they get Liriano in there, the better.
All the commentors are missing out on the biggest problem of the twins- Brad "Maybe I should consider warming up for games" Radke. While it is not a guaranteed loss when he takes the mound (as he is a miraculous 2-1), it is a guarantee that the twins will have to overcome a significant deficit EVERY TIME he pitches. It really is comical at this point-and demoralizing.
During yesterday's game, I refused to watch the first two innings, because I knew the twins would be down 2 to 4 runs by the third inning. It's not that I have "predictive powers" like you Aaron, it's simply that when the same things happens during every Radke start, it's not difficult to decipher what will happen his next start. Of course I was wrong about my prediction of an Arod 2 run hr- it was a Giambi 2 run hr. I realize i'm going on a huge rant here, i'm just so frustrated by Radke's early inning meltdowns, especially with Liriano smoking guys out of the bullpen on a regular basis.
I feel a little better now, but I still won't watch the first two innings of Radke's start vs. Chicago.
Rondell will hit eventually, but I don't think booing is going to be of any help. He is probably overanalyzing and trying too hard if anything.
Here is a quote by Ryan Church, who was at the wrong place mentally, partially because of the clueless tandem of Bowden/Robinson, but hit 2 HR yesterday. I think Rondell just needs to follow this same advice:
"I was pressing," he said. "It was just one of those things in my head. I'd get up there, and I'd have no approach. I'd get in that box, there's a million things going on in my head, and it's one of those things where I had to step back, take a deep breath, and say, 'Screw everything,' and just be me."
Castro and Batista have been pretty good so far. I doubt it can keep up, but they have definitely contributed to the encouraging start.
I was really impressed with Cuddyer's arm strength and accuracy. That's something that's been missing in the Twins OF for some time (Hunter's arm is solid for CF, but nothing special).
You'll have a lot of trouble finding anyone to agree with you that Hunter's arm is "nothing special." I'm pretty sure most scouts would rate Hunter's arm as the best or at least among the upper echelon center fielders in the league in terms of strength and accuracy. There are a lot of guys who can just let loose and send rockets to the infield, but Hunter's throws are right on the mark almost every time.
Cuddyer does have an excellent arm, but I'm not sure it's that much of a change of pace considering the other right field options. I think Kubel's arm is at least as good as Cuddyer's (it was rated as the best in the organization before he got injured last year) and Ford's arm is underrated (the throw from deep right that beat Jorge Posada to the plate when he tagged up from third on Friday was one of the better OF assists I have ever seen).
The reason Cuddyer's arm probably looks so good is because you're comparing it to Jacque Jones, who routinely threw the ball straight into the ground or over somebody's head.
If I'm not mistaken Mauer still doesn't have a hit to right -- which is a good thing.
What is more predictable? The sun rising in the morning or Nick N. knocking Cuddyer?
Yeah, yeah - the guy is a disappointment, but enough already... why can't he just have a good arm?
Sacrifice bunting is strategy and should be the manager's call. Bunt for a hit, fine. Trying to go the other way or trying to hit a sac fly in certain situations, fine. But that Castillo stuff would really piss me off… kind of like Peyton Manning deciding to go for it on 4th down.
If an All-Star like Castillo decides the best way to do his job during a given at-bat is to sac bunt, I defer to him. Given how the Twins struggled to score last season, anything that advances the runner is fine with me. Just another RBI opportunity for Joe Mauer. I would equate it to the basestealers who reportedly have the green light pretty much all the time. The manager trusts them enough to make their own decision. I would be comfortable letting Castillo (or Peyton Manning) do that, too.
No more links to your other writing? (Hardball Times et al.)?
Nevermind, I'm an idiot and couldn't see them.
Yeah, yeah - the guy is a disappointment, but enough already... why can't he just have a good arm?
Even the YES announcers seemed pretty impressed by Cuddyer's arm. Of course, they were also very impressed with one Juan Castro, and his professional at-bats. But at any rate, it shows it's not just the company line, and having paid closer attention to it lately, I'd say RF is probably Cuddyer's best defensive position, at least in the dome.
Rondell is a pro, and he has been around a long time. He's adjusting to full time DH-ing and a new team. Please cut him some April slack, people.
Last week most of you were bemoaning Castillo's poor road trip. 40+ at bats does not make a season. When Rondell comes around-- look out!
Can I take Sid's place now, as Mr. positivity?
Aaron,
I wanted to ask you a question about Liriano.
TR said last year that Liriano's needed to throw his fastball for strikes (which he seems to be doing this year), and hold runners on better. The Yankees immediately ran on him successfully. I know it's nitpicking, but can you tell me how successful base runners were at stealing on Liriano in the minors. I noticed in one of the games last week against Cleveland, Liriano never once checked the runner on base before throwing to the plate.
Ryan signed Rondell. There's the problem right there. Gardenhire has to play the best players he has on his roster. And despite how crappy he is hitting, White is worlds better than the options in front of Gardenhire.
Here's the real problem...If he gets 400 PAs, that's 3mm guaranteed for next year. It escalates to the point where if he gets 650 PAs, he will earn 8.5mm next year.
OUCH
Actually, that's 8.5 million over the two years if he gets at least 650 PA, not 3.25 this season and 8.5 next. That doesn't make sense.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/w...=mlb&
id=2268808
What is more predictable? The sun rising in the morning or Nick N. knocking Cuddyer?
Yeah, I do find this sort of amusing. When I pick a player to endlessly harp negatively about I at least try to make it one of the worst guys on the team.
Rondell is a pro, and he has been around a long time. He's adjusting to full time DH-ing and a new team. Please cut him some April slack, people.
I can already see the "adjusting to full-time DHing" thing become the explanation for White's poor play. Which is funny, since during the offseason DHing full time was brought up as a way for White to both stay healthy and actually hit better. Now, when he slumps, it's a negative thing.
Also, the "new team" thing doesn't work with White. This is his seventh team since 2000. If it took him this long to adjust each time he went somewhere new, he'd be out of baseball.
TR said last year that Liriano's needed to throw his fastball for strikes (which he seems to be doing this year), and hold runners on better. The Yankees immediately ran on him successfully. I know it's nitpicking, but can you tell me how successful base runners were at stealing on Liriano in the minors. I noticed in one of the games last week against Cleveland, Liriano never once checked the runner on base before throwing to the plate.
Unfortunately I don't have any access to minor league SB/CS numbers for pitchers, and in fact I'm not even sure such data is available anywhere. So far he's allowed five steals in six attempts over 32 innings, so it doesn't look like a huge problem as far as teams running wild.
Yeah, yeah - the guy is a disappointment, but enough already... why can't he just have a good arm?
Direct quote from my comment:
Cuddyer does have an excellent arm
I wasn't trying to insinuate that Cuddy does not have a good arm; he does. The only thing I was arguing with was the sentiment that Cuddyer's arm looks better than any we've seen in right field in a long time, which to me is untrue. I think Kubel's arm is about as good (if not better) and Ford has a pretty good arm too. It's fortunate to go from having Jones out there, who has one of the worst right field arms in the league, to having three guys who excel in that category.
Here's a blast from the recent past when it comes to player evaluation and the media...
www.twinswithoutspin.com
So many people freaking out about White.
I'm disapointed.
Did it ever, ever come to you that the Twins might know what they were doing with Batista and you were not? Ever?
I may be butting in here, but what is it that the Twins might know about Batista? That he's a better hitter than their old 3B (Cuddyer)? He's not, as the career stats below show:
BA OBA SLG OPS
Batista - .251 .298 .458 .756
Cuddyer - .260 .330 .428 .758
That he's a better fielder? The stats stats don't show that either. They DO show that he makes less errors, but they show less range, too. The only stat in Batista's favor is his higher salary. Batista plays one position only and doesn't play it any better than a younger cheaper player the Twins already have on hand. Plus, the guy they do have gives them more positional flexibility. Batista isn't a bad player. He isn't a good one, either. But he's probably a bad fit for the Twins and his signing was one of the stranger things I've seen the Twins do recently.
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