Note: If you wouldn't say it to someone's face, don't say it here. Comments deleted on a whim.
I actually did my WPA calculations for the entire season today as well. Mine factor in defense and other stuff that a regular calculation might miss, but most of the ordering is practically the same.
D.A. Humber posted a draft-day roundtable that I participated in:
http://dahumber.blogspot.com/200...t-day-
2006.html
Hunter's WPA is awfully low for a guy who has seemed to be above average offensively. Thoughts on why?
Hunter's WPA is awfully low for a guy who has seemed to be above average offensively. Thoughts on why?
Well, first and foremost Hunter hasn't been above-average offensively. He's hitting .258/.329/.426, which is not good at all. The AL as a whole is hitting .271/.338/.434.
Beyond that, he's hit a miserable .103 (3-for-29) in "close and late" situations and a measly .266/.310/.406 with runners in scoring position. So he hasn't been very good overall and he's been even worse in key spots.
Aaron, please stop revealing such things about Hunter. Parts of the rest of the world still think of him when they talk about acquiring a "bat" and numbers like that won't help his trade value.
Aaron, please stop revealing such things about Hunter. Parts of the rest of the world still think of him when they talk about acquiring a "bat" and numbers like that won't help his trade value.
Don't worry. Given how many Twins fans continue to think that Hunter is worth $10-12 million per season I'm guessing the Twins would have no problem finding a few important people outside of Minnesota who feel that way too.
Aaron, got any thoughts on who the Twins will draft today?
Aaron, got any thoughts on who the Twins will draft today?
I intially planned to do some sort of a draft preview, but didn't for a few reasons.
One is that the draft appears to lean more heavily to high-school players over college players, which makes it difficult for a non-scout to preview.
Two is that the Twins pick 20th and it's nearly impossible to predict who will drop to them, not to mention who they are looking at.
My guess is that they'll draft a college pitcher in the first round, just because the Twins typically go after pitching and there are plenty of highly-regarded college guys available.
I'd personally like to see them go after some hitters with middle-of-the-order potential or a college shortstop, but I doubt that'll happen.
Baseball America's latest mock draft has them taking Joba Chamberlain, a starting pitcher from the University of Nebraska. BA reports that he "was a top-10 pick until teams began to worry about his long-term durability."
Slightly off-topic, but does your blog software not accommodate tables and/or fixed-width text? The stats you cite are always formatted in a proportional font (due to the <font face="ARIAL"> around it all), and as such none of it aligns properly. This makes it difficult to scan the lists visually. If it is possible, using a <table> or even just setting the stats text to "Courier" or another fixed-width font would be a vast improvement.
Good article, though, as always. Thanks!
ok, hmm.. Update: This seems to be the case with Firefox, but apparently not with IE. So I guess the stats are not always skewed -- but presumably since you have a Firefox button on your site, you value it as a browser like many of the rest of us do.. anyway, just thought i'd mention it.
It's because:
A) it's centered
B) FF doesn't like the <pre> tag.
But yeah, I think it's time for Gleeman to use/learn tables.
AGNP
I'd personally like to see them go after some hitters with middle-of-the-order potential or a college shortstop, but I doubt that'll happen.
The Twins took L/L high school outfielder Christopher Parmelee with their first pick (#20) today.
MLB.com has a brief video (no audio?) of Parmelee in its Draft Tracker tool.
Wow - I knew Rondell White was past his prime but his numbers this year are freakishly bad. 3 walks in 48 games? Oh - one of them was intentional. I wonder who the two pitchers who unintentionally walked him were . .
Putting Rondell & his 444 OPS in context:
Mark Mulder 906 OPS (3 walks)
Tom Glavine 867 OPS (5 walks)
Chan Ho Park 800 OPS
Ryan Madson 728 OPS
Sidney Ponson 717 OPS (2 walks)
Livian Hernandez 714 OPS
John Thomson 696 OPS
Eric Milton 692 OPS
Brad Penny 583 OPS
Bronson Arroyo 581 OPS
Glendon Rusch 556 OPS
Cardinals pitching staff 521 OPS (7 walks)
Jason Jennings 471 OPS
Mets Pitching Staff 470 OPS (8 walks)
Matt Cain 467 OPS
Jamey Wright 464 OPS
Tomo Ohka 455 OPS
Rondell White 444 OPS
Chris Young 435 OPS
Braves pitching staff 433 OPS (5 walks)
Aaron Harang 429 OPS
Padres pitching staff 424 OPS (4 walks)
Reds pitching staff 421 OPS
Andy Pettitte 420 OPS
John Smoltz 417 OPS
Greg Maddux 408 OPS
Zach Duke 399 OPS
Jeff Francis 392 OPS (6 walks)
Juan Cruz 250 OPS (3 walks)
There you have it. White's doing OK for a NL pitcher, but only OK.
The Twins took L/L high school outfielder Christopher Parmelee with their first pick (#20) today.
Color me shocked and pleased. I'll have to do some reading up on him, but in theory it sounds like a good decision.
The Twins really seem to have an aversion to college hitters, unless I'm forgetting some guys here. When's the last time they used a high pick on a college hitter? Considering their lack of success in developing hitters recently, it seems like something that might be worth looking into.
The Twins really seem to have an aversion to college hitters, unless I'm forgetting some guys here. When's the last time they used a high pick on a college hitter? Considering their lack of success in developing hitters recently, it seems like something that might be worth looking into.
I agree. The last one I can think of is Tagg Bozied, back in 2000, but they didn't actually sign him. Before that it may have been Matthew LeCroy in 1997.
In the mid-90s they used a lot of high picks on college hitters. The top four picks in 1996, Todd Walker in 1994, Jason Varitek in 1993.
Here's an article from THT this week that shows the Twins' extreme draft strategy:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/mai...aft-strategies/
In the second round the Twins took William Benson, a catcher who they apparently plan to convert to LF. Surprise surprise, he's a high-schooler.
According to the Strib, Parmelee has committed to playing for Cal State Fullerton.
I don't think the Twins would draft him if they had no chance of signing him, but it's hard to see a California guy turning down a premier college baseball program and college life in California in to sign with the Twins. The Twins won't offer the kind of bonus that you just have to take and they're not the type of team that most high school kids dream of playing for (like the Yankees or Red Sox).
I don't know anything about Parmelee but I think he'll go to Fullerton and jump in the draft again in four years. At least that's what I would do if I were him.
It's too bad MLB doesn't hype up the amateur draft the way NFL and NBA do.
I realize most of these picks won't see the majors for at least a couple of years (if ever), but I think even the casual sports fan would be interested in who these kids are and what they've accomplished in HS or college.
At least we've got baseball tonight to shine a light on the draft. (Ha-Ha).
Comments?
I think the conventional thinking is shifting more... if you get drafted in the first 2 rounds out of HS - you go pro. Almost every top prospect signs a letter as a back up plan.
Plus, his agent will let him know that the Twins promote from with in. Not many of the big-payroll teams do. Plus, our depth charts in the outfield are wide open. So it would probably be a pretty bad move for him not to sign. But of course, logic and common sense doesn't always rule the day.
Barring any total lack in judgement... he signs.
Plus, the Twins certainly did their homework and have strong reason to believe that he will, in fact, sign.
The Twins won't offer the kind of bonus that you just have to take...
What evidence do you have for this? When's the last time the Twins didn't sign their first-round pick? Not that long ago, they offered $5M+ for Mauer, and I believe Garza and Perkins each got something in the $1M+ range, and those were in drafts where they also had to spend money on supplemental picks. This year, the Twins don't have any supplemental first round picks, so they'll have even more of their draft budget to spend on their first pick. Making a rough guess, I'd bet they could offer at least $2M to Parmalee, which would be a pretty big wad of cash for a high schooler to turn down.
Well, not really a top pick, but the Twins took a college hitter in Whitney Robbins, a 6'2", 205-lb first baseman out of Georgia Tech.
Robbins hit .369/.481/.627, with 12 HR, a 33:38 K:BB ratio, while committing 12 errors at first base for G. Tech. By the numbers, he looks like their best hitter, and Boyd's World had Georgia Tech ranked as the 8th best team in NCAA Division I this year, though they had only the 53rd most difficult strength of schedule.
The best hitter on the 8th best college team in the country seems like pretty good value for the 119th pick (supplemental from the Cubs for Jones).
Reds just called up Joe Mays. Reds staff must be scary.
Here's an article on cnnsi.com about 3 weeks about about Parmelee. Sounds like the kid has some big time power potential. He's also disciplined at the plate, something I'm sure the Twins farm system will correct :)
BA rated him as having the best strike zone judgement out of all HS hitters in this year's draft. They also rated him as the #2 high schooler in the best pure hitter category.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com...elee/
index.html
Sorry - here's the article...
Most amusing pick so far: Evan Longoria
Now if he could just find a girlfriend named Toni Parker.
I thought "Stephen King" was more amusing, but that's good too.
Also, Parmelee doesn't have much to gain by waiting on pro ball. He'll likely get a multi-million dollar signing bonus now, and will get started soon.
If he goes to college, sure he'd get a free education, and might increase his bonus, but the risk is huge.
AGNP
Wow...the Twins have used 8 of their first 10 picks on position players.
Best name so far: Brian Dinkelman. Wasn't he the former co-host of American Idol?
When evaluating Twins hitters, we have to keep in mind that the Twins hitters never get to face some of the worst starters in the league: Radke, Silva, and Lohse. Am I right Aaron?
If he got to face those guys regularly, as for example, the White Sox and Indians do, Hunter could be expected to post hitting stats slightly better than the league average. Then again, he can count himself fortunate not to have to face Santana.
Bud has all the team's bonuses slotted all the way through the 10th round. What a player gets paid will be determined on where they are drafted and Parmelee at #20 will likely get something close to $1.5mm compared with Garza who last year got a reported $1.35mm.
Justin's WPA kind of surprises me because he's hitting .300 with men on base. But he's not doing much other wise so I guess that cancels it out. He Did hit .270 in may So there is some hope not a lot but some.
Aaron, I'm surprised you haven't pointed out the fact that the Twins, while sitting in the bottom half of the AL in ERA, are actually 1st in DIPS.
Reds just called up Joe Mays. Reds staff must be scary.
Well, they are playing the Sox in interleague shortly.
Reds just called up Joe Mays. Reds staff must be scary.
Well, they are playing the Sox in interleague shortly.
Aaron, I'm surprised you haven't pointed out the fact that the Twins, while sitting in the bottom half of the AL in ERA, are actually 1st in DIPS.
Here's an article on cnnsi.com about 3 weeks about about Parmelee. Sounds like the kid has some big time power potential. He's also disciplined at the plate, something I'm sure the Twins farm system will correct
BA rated him as having the best strike zone judgement out of all HS hitters in this year's draft. They also rated him as the #2 high schooler in the best pure hitter category.
When evaluating Twins hitters, we have to keep in mind that the Twins hitters never get to face some of the worst starters in the league: Radke, Silva, and Lohse. Am I right Aaron?
Arguably true. Last year, Moss took the flip-side of this argument to show that the Twins had the worst offense in all of baseball. They didn't have a pitcher batting 7-10% of the time, and they didn't have to face their own staff. Yet they were worst in AL in runs and near the very bottom in MLB.
But let's face it -- as Grant points out, they are great in DIPS which means that it's not really the pitchers' fault entirely but a large part of the blame goes to the fielders. Put the Twins batters against the Twins pitchers, but with average or better fielders behind them, and the Twins batters won't score much.
It's not as cool of a name as Evan Longoria or Brian Dinkleman, but Brent Brewer was drafted by...the Brewers in the 2nd round.
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