Note: If you wouldn't say it to someone's face, don't say it here. Comments deleted on a whim.
Wow, that's a lot of doom, gloom, and "I told ya so's." We've got a punchless lineup and three awful starters (Bonser and Silva probably rotate in that category) Any silver linings in there? Like, at least Jones had his first ML hit (joking)? You are astute at pointing out the problems. Can't fault you for summing up what most Twins fans are thinking.
No one seesm to think that Slowey should get called up (except me) - but just for the record he pitched another jem last night:
IP 7.2
ER 1
BB 1
K - 6
ERA 1.46
He has significantly beter numbers than Baker - but it won't be Slowey starting on Saturday (down to Baker or Garza) - but it appears that it is Baker.
I wonder what that does to a kid (Slowey) - when you out pitch someone yet you don't get the call?? I mean you are not going to find many (if any) starters who have put together stats like this:
GS - 7
IP - 49.1
CG - 2
H- 31
ER - 8
BB - 3
K - 44
Avg - .176
Whip - .69
You just don't see these kind of numbers much......
That "punchless" line-up has hit eight home runs in their past two games...? I don't expect this trend to continue, of course, but it's still pretty amazing.
Also, I'm not sure why you're presently including Silva in this, as he has been effective so far this year. I'm not saying he won't regress to his 2006 numbers; I'm saying he has not yet shown he will. I'm not good at predicting things, though.
That "punchless" line-up has hit eight home runs in their past two games...? I don't expect this trend to continue, of course, but it's still pretty amazing.
Yeah, and they still rank dead last in the whole league (not to mention that about half of those eight homers were meaningless).
Anderson should spend his time making sure Silva stays "fixed". Silva has had success, and his career baseline is still up in the air, as he's had one average season, one very good season, and one very bad season in his 3-year stint as a starter. I have a feeling the real Carlos Silva is likely right there in the middle - an extreme GB pitcher who is adequate (and can be occassionally very good) with a solid defense behind him.
Ponson was ok as a flier, but it was a mistake to take him north. Ortiz was just a mistake. You're right on about those two.
I think "jem" is spelled with a g. "Gem"
So have they announced who is starting Saturday? Please god, tell me I'm not driving 400 miles to watch Scott Baker.
Maybe they meant "inning eater" instead of "innings eater."
On the harsh side today, A.G. We are all disappointed that Ortiz had nothing last night--and appears to be in a tailspin. I don't think it's particularly fair to throw Silva to the wolves since he has clearly been much better than anyone anticipated so far. Plus, I think you are conflating two things in regards to TR's off-season moves.
To wit: TR's strategy--assemble a stable of veterans, bring them to Florida, work them and see who can ride--is a solid strategy. What you are unhappy about is that TR picked poor horses. That may be true, but given his allotted payroll, TR is forced to be more of a mule-dealer than a purveyor of fine racing stock. Minnesota, small market, all that.
I'm still more concerned about offense than pitching, knowing, as TR did all along, he's raising some fair ponies in upstate New York who might be able to run in the Belmont or Preakness yet this summer. Like an inscrutable card shark, TR has a few bullets in reserve if Ortiz, and even Silva, tank.
To wit: TR's strategy--assemble a stable of veterans, bring them to Florida, work them and see who can ride--is a solid strategy.
Nothing wrong with bringing vets to spring, but handing them guaranteed multi-millions that all but ensures them a roster spot for the year regardless of how they perform is a problem.
Aaron,
I am an avid reader of your blog and know that you love the twins (almost) as much as I do. I know it sucks to watch your favorite team play like crap, especially when we all have seen them perform miracles. However, I think that your frustrations have interfered with your wonderful analysis of our home team. We all know that Ortiz is not Radke. We all know that Silva is just as likely to repeat 2006 as he is to repeat 2005. We know a homerun for punto is a fly ball to the warning track. But I seek out your site to find hope and solace in the face of despair, not more venting of an angry fan. I hope you can become a little more positive and hopeful so I can continue reading your site!
I wonder what that does to a kid (Slowey) - when you out pitch someone yet you don't get the call??
I'm all for calling people up when they deserve it, but Slowey has been at Triple-A for all of six weeks. I doubt he's going to go on a rampage because Baker--with multiple years at Triple-A and muliple years in the majors--gets called up before him.
Also, I'm not sure why you're presently including Silva in this, as he has been effective so far this year. I'm not saying he won't regress to his 2006 numbers; I'm saying he has not yet shown he will. I'm not good at predicting things, though.
I think I explained why I included Silva. Much like Ortiz a few weeks ago, everything points to a major "correction" in his performance.
I have a feeling the real Carlos Silva is likely right there in the middle - an extreme GB pitcher who is adequate (and can be occassionally very good) with a solid defense behind him.
I've heard this plenty, but the problem is that Silva is no longer even close to "an extreme GB pitcher." In fact, he's now a fly-ball pitcher.
But I seek out your site to find hope and solace in the face of despair, not more venting of an angry fan. I hope you can become a little more positive and hopeful so I can continue reading your site!
If you are indeed "an avid reader" of this blog, you should know that this isn't the place to come for "hope and solace." I'd suggest reading MLB.com's Twins coverage instead or perhaps just putting the FSN broadcast on an endless loop.
...or perhaps just putting the FSN broadcast on an endless loop.
If it's possible to have a nightmare while fully awake, you may have just caused one.
How many Blylevisms can one person possibly endure? I can't handle more than three "piranTas" myself.
well said, AG. and OldTwinsCap, AG isn't "unhappy that TR picked poor horses", he's unhappy that he goes shopping for those horses in the first place. TR has some impressive ponies down in AAA that have shown that they are completely capable.
I'm scheduled to interview Terry Ryan, Jim Rantz and Tom Kelly (all tentative at this point, of course) later this afternoon in New Britain. Anyone have any questions they'd like me to relay along? Needless to say, it would help if they have some relevance to the Rock Cats, as well...
It is a bit unfair to say Silva will tumble like Ortiz. He has much more history of success. With Silva, it is quite reasonable to say that last year WAS his "broken" year. He won't put up a 3 ERA, but one under 4 is distinctly possible and one at or above average is a decent bet as well.
If you are indeed "an avid reader" of this blog, you should know that this isn't the place to come for "hope and solace." I'd suggest reading MLB.com's Twins coverage instead or perhaps just putting the FSN broadcast on an endless loop.
Wow. Way to put the smack down on someone who openly claims to like your site and (usual) analysis. We are all happy for your success over the past years, both professionally and personally. But condescending posts like that make ME think that whatever you lost in terms of body weight you have gained back in terms of ego weight. Where's the candid, analytical, and earnest AG that was the reason I started reading this page in the first place?
It is a bit unfair to say Silva will tumble like Ortiz. He has much more history of success.
Silva's "success" so far this year has been in many ways exactly like Ortiz's. He's got an unsustainable HR/FB rate and an unsustainable left-on-base percentage. Eventually, as long as Silva keeps allowing flyballs (which he most certainly is doing--I wouldn't call him a flyball pitcher, but his 41.9% GB% makes him a groundball/flyball-neutral pitcher), he's going to start allowing more home runs, and eventually he's going to start allowing all of those baserunners to score.
If Silva is going to look good at the end of the season, he's either got to start missing more bats or inducing more groundballs, because he's been rather poor at both of those things so far this season.
Wow. Way to put the smack down on someone who openly claims to like your site and (usual) analysis.
Look, when someone posts something claiming that a) they read the site often, and b) look for the site as a place to find "hope and solace" when the Twins struggle, I'm going to call bullshit. That's how it goes here. And I'd hardly call it "putting the smack down."
But condescending posts like that make ME think that whatever you lost in terms of body weight you have gained back in terms of ego weight. Where's the candid, analytical, and earnest AG that was the reason I started reading this page in the first place?
People like you have been telling me that my ego has gotten too big for literally five years. So either they were all wrong or nothing has changed. Maybe, just maybe, me acting like me--big ego, small ego, big jerk, small jerk, whatever--is the reason why people enjoy reading this site. As usual, your mileage may vary.
Thanks for the unvarnished analysis. It's hard to argue with AG's impressive track record as a prognosticator. I'd like to see him hired as a consultant. Think about this Dynamic Duo: Terry Ryan, Super GM, and his Boy Wonder Sidekick, Glee Man.
Can anyone tell me....
Is it 'Ruh-moan' or 'Ray-moan', because I'm really getting sick of how John Gordon says it...
I suppose in 1 calendar month I won't have that problem, and I can go back to hating Gardy's commercials on KSTP (like the BIG TRADE, as if any Twins fan wouldn't realize that Gardy doesn't even make trades....damn you KINETICO!)....hum....oh well
Silva's "success" so far this year has been in many ways exactly like Ortiz's. He's got an unsustainable HR/FB rate and an unsustainable left-on-base percentage. Eventually, as long as Silva keeps allowing flyballs (which he most certainly is doing--I wouldn't call him a flyball pitcher, but his 41.9% GB% makes him a groundball/flyball-neutral pitcher), he's going to start allowing more home runs, and eventually he's going to start allowing all of those baserunners to score.
If Silva is going to look good at the end of the season, he's either got to start missing more bats or inducing more groundballs, because he's been rather poor at both of those things so far this season.
Well said, ubelmann.
Thanks for the unvarnished analysis. It's hard to argue with AG's impressive track record as a prognosticator. I'd like to see him hired as a consultant. Think about this Dynamic Duo: Terry Ryan, Super GM, and his Boy Wonder Sidekick, Glee Man.
Not that I mind the compliment, but predicting things like "Ramon Ortiz will pitch poorly" or "Tony Batista will hit poorly" really doesn't take a genius. It simply looks impressive because so many fans and media members are willing to overlook facts and analysis to go the other direction in the name of homerdom.
I have pointed this out several times, but I will again. The Twins problem is that the the cheapness of the management creates an inbalance of talent that is difficult to resolve.
We have too much young pitching and pitching prospects (yes too much). We lack veteran starting pitching. We still lack power in the lineup, particularly at 3B, DH, and at least one outfield spot.
Because the Twins management is too cheap they do not address these problems. Over these years the Twins have never spent even mid-level money to find a veteran free agent to fill in any of their trouble spots, prefering to spend only on bargain basement players that had little or no positive expectations.
Further, again because of salary constraints, the Twins have been totally unwilling to part with some prospects, particularly pitching prospects, to get established veteran players that would make the lineup more complete and balanced.
What this has caused is somewhat of a logjam of young talent that will eventually peter out. Consider the outfield situation of a few years ago. We had several young outfielders, like Jason Kubel, Michael Restovich, and Lew Ford alogn with even younger prospects like Denard Span and BJ Garbe to name a few. Kubel and Ford were injured and not contributing much, and Restovich eventaully was released.
Some would argue that the actual outcome proves that you can never have enough talent. However, I argue the opposite. At one point, we could have easily traded Michael Restovich and perhaps a pitching prospect like Adam Johnson and received a far above average veteran player IF we would have been willing to pay the salary. Instead, we got nothing for this potential.
A similar logjam is building in the pitching prospects for the Twins. Perkins, Baker, Garza, and Slowery are at the tip of the bunch. Add Liriano to that mix (hopefully back in 2008) and Bonser to go along with Santana you suddenly have only a couple of rotation spots for all of these players to compete for.
Maybe a couple of the prospects, like Eduard Morlan will prosper in the relief role, but most of these pitchers are starters and always have been, and their maximized value is as starters.
In other words, if you project Jay Rainville as a future long reliever in the majors because of this logjam you are not getting true value for him. Rainville could easily be part of a trade that will bring you tremendous value, but then, only if you are willing to pay real major league salaries.
Brandon- "Ruh-moan" is the correct way to pronounce Ortiz's first name.
And Johan should always be "Yo-hahn".
Geez Aaron - take your lips off the exhaust pipe for a second, willya? Take a couple of breaths of fresh air. It might clear your head a bit...
Two poor starts plus one terrible start doesn't completely erase a hell of a first month. Ortiz's ERA was under 3 in April - we maybe should give him a little more rope to hang himself the first time he stumbles with a new club. And if you'll excuse me, I'll pick on another of couple of pet peeves...
I'm a little sick of the rhetoric that the Twins "committed $9 million" to Ortiz, Ponson and Silva. Grouping them together is almost deliberately deceptive - the decisions surrounding each were made seperately, as are the decisions about how big an impact they have on the team. So let's look at them individually.
- The only committed $1 million to Ponson, and even after failure that remains a reasonable gamble.
- The $3 million they commited to Ortiz seemed liike an enormous bargain just two weeks ago, and even if he ends up being a long reliever, he's practically earned it with a that April.
- The $4.5 million they paid to Silva seems like an absolute bargain right now.
The second pet peeve is that we seem to forget that the excitement surrouding young pitching is based more on their potential than their immediate performance. Of the four arms in the 'rotation of MLB-ready starters' we have:
- Glen Perkins, who has been a mediocre reliever in the majors so far this season
- Scott Baker - who has failed at the majors several times, and who was borderline terrible through most of spring training
- Matt Garza - who also has struggled last year in the majors, though we all want to claim he was just tired. His first month in AAA was defined by his inability to get any pitch other than his fastball over the plate.
- Kevin Slowey - the best of the bunch, primarily because he's the only one who's never been in the majors and failed. He also has a grand total of 15 starts in AAA.
Are all of these guys options? Sure. But can you count on any of them for an immediate impact any more than you can from Ortiz? Not objectively.
Twins fans are, IMHO, getting a little carried away with exactly what each of these young guys is going to bring to the majors. Your rant shows you're a fan too. That's a good thing, but in this case the fan might be a bit happier if he mixes in a little move objectivity.
Too funny. I just went to your archives to see if your earlier posts reflect the big ego that you have benn told you have, on a consistent basis, for the past five years, and came across this bit of hilarity from a Jul/Aug '02 entry:
According to Twins' announcers Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven (who are a very good team in my opinion) this is the 49th time this season that the Twins' bullpen has not allowed a run in a game.
Anyway, I think the value in your site is your ability to present statistics that aren't laid out in the box score, and to explain in simple terms the impact/import of those numbers. I don't want to bash you because you provide a free service that I generally find value in, but I do want to suggest that the "voice" you use to convey this information has shifted from that of the endearing "common fan watching at home" toward that of the chest-puffing "internet sports analyst." Just my $.02 -- skewer me at-will.
Great post today.
If five starts aren't enough for you to say "I was wrong," then three starts are certainly not enough to say "I told you so." Let's give the guy a few more starts before we decide on what we've got here.
Also, let's give the guy credit for his performance to start the season. He wasn't "lucky," he was good. He cruised through his starts with very few hard-hit balls or great defense behind him to rob hits. Was he performing above his head? Probably, but no one expected him to average seven innings and two runs allowed for the entire season.
Ortiz was certainly awful last night. He couldn't locate his fastball and he kept putting his slider on a tee to be hit. That will happen to most pitchers on occasion. In Ortiz's previous start, he gave up four runs in the first, but then only gave up one run in the next five innings. In that first, one of the hits was an infield single and the last two scored on a broken-bat looping single to left with two outs. If anything, he was unlucky in that game. If either of those weaks hits was an out, he would have allowed two runs in the first and ended up with a quality start.
Ortiz may very well end up pitching like he has the last few years. I just think it's too early to say "I told you so."
As for Silva, if you go by his track record, the Twins have every reason to believe he will be a solid pitcher this year. He was very solid, even good, for two seasons before last year. Even last year, after his horrible start and banishment to the bullpen, he was just inconsistent, not terrible, which would indicate his problems were more mental than anything (pressing, loss of confidence, lack of focus, etc.).
Two poor starts plus one terrible start doesn't completely erase a hell of a first month. Ortiz's ERA was under 3 in April - we maybe should give him a little more rope to hang himself the first time he stumbles with a new club.
Again, one of the points I made today and at other times, is that Ortiz's April, while very good, showed all kinds of signs that it wouldn't last.
Are all of these guys options? Sure. But can you count on any of them for an immediate impact any more than you can from Ortiz? Not objectively.
Yes, but none of them cost $3.1 million and one of them might actually, you know, pitch well.
Twins fans are, IMHO, getting a little carried away with exactly what each of these young guys is going to bring to the majors. Your rant shows you're a fan too. That's a good thing, but in this case the fan might be a bit happier if he mixes in a little move objectivity.
I don't expect any of the young pitchers to be great immediately. That doesn't change any of my points about the crappy veterans, though.
Too funny. I just went to your archives to see if your earlier posts reflect the big ego that you have benn told you have, on a consistent basis, for the past five years, and came across this bit of hilarity from a Jul/Aug '02 entry:
I've actually written about this several times. I used to enjoy Bremer and Blyleven, but then I started to get sick of hearing the exact same thing over and over and over again, and at this point I'm downright annoyed by them to the point of often muting the TV.
I do want to suggest that the "voice" you use to convey this information has shifted from that of the endearing "common fan watching at home" toward that of the chest-puffing "internet sports analyst."
I think you're wrong. I've always been an internet sports analysst puffing my chest out.
If five starts aren't enough for you to say "I was wrong," then three starts are certainly not enough to say "I told you so." Let's give the guy a few more starts before we decide on what we've got here.
The difference is that Ortiz's five good starts were out of line with his track record, while his three horrible starts have been right in line with them. We don't need another month to decide what kind of pitcher Ramon Ortiz is. He's shown that over the last decade.
AG: I know a pretty good handy man if you need a double door set installed at the new mansion, that way you'll be able to get that huge head of yours through the doorway! ;)
How much does ego weigh anyway?
Worse than the Ramon pronounciation is the MOR no vs mor NO. Some times Bremer and Blyleven use them both in the same broad cast. Is it that hard to ask the guy how he pronounces his name?
I've hijacked this thread enough already, so I'll just put this last offering out there and leave it at that. Check out this link to your archives, reviewing your first full year of posting. I think it provides ample evidence that you were not always the "chest-puffer," you claim. If you were, I don't think you would sarcastically poke fun at your own expanding ego, get giddy about seeing your name in the newspaper, or call yourself Lord of the Idiots for slamming your finger in a window.
http://www.aarongleeman.com/
2003...og_archive.html
I've hijacked this thread enough already, so I'll just put this last offering out there and leave it at that. Check out this link to your archives, reviewing your first full year of posting. I think it provides ample evidence that you were not always the "chest-puffer," you claim. If you were, I don't think you would sarcastically poke fun at your own expanding ego, get giddy about seeing your name in the newspaper, or call yourself Lord of the Idiots for slamming your finger in a window.
You're suggesting that I never poke fun at myself and talk about seeing my name mentioned places? Seriously? The reason I think you're so off base is that I've literally had this exact back-and-forth discussion with someone about me and this blog "changing" at least 100 times over the past five years. How long have you been reading?
Oh, and how many people with big, gigantic, out of control egos hang around in the comments section of their own blog in order to answer questions and respond to criticism?
The first starting pitching fallout from the release of Sidney Ponson has come down...
http://blogs.myrecordjournal.com...author=42&
p=639
So I should take it you're not happy with Ortiz, Aaron? ;)
So I should take it you're not happy with Ortiz, Aaron? ;)
I have no problem with Ortiz. He's pitching exactly like everyone should have expected him to pitch. Do you get upset a skunk for stinking up your house when you choose it as a pet?
This is growing to Barriero-esque proportions. That is to say being right steers the conversation away from meaningful dialog and alienates the audience. Cantankerous and haughty.
My point with the first comment – and I think what others are saying – is that the value of the analysis at AG.com is what brings some of us here. Not the hindsight – 20/20.
It's your prerogative. That's fine.
Twins nation is edgy. Reading today's entry pushed some buttons. I was just hoping that I might find some solace in some insight, rather than re-tread the AG-told-you-sos.
That is all.
Morneau has said that the proper pronounciation of his name rhymes with "Porno".
Can't say I'm surprised about Blackburn. Though I think Duensing is more deserving, Blackburn has AAA experience. So keeping with the organizational philosophy of not promoting anyone until they're absolutely forced to, and then only if that person has experience at the higher level, fits in this case.
I might add, I think Slowey deserves it, but Baker will likely get the call because he's the clostest thing to a washed-up veteran who's available in the system. They'd probably promote Gassner before they promoted Slowey because he has two major league starts under his belt.
And Waldrop deserves it, but there's no one else in Fort Myers who's even been demoted, so he gets it by default.
AG - I read every day, but rarely post. I had a rotten day today. But I have laughed so hard at your "comments" responses today, I am ready again for all the abuse life can throw at me. Thanks for being whatever you are.
This evening, Jim Rantz said exactly that: Blackburn was promoted because he had Triple-A experience. Although they think highly of Duensing, he did just get hammered last night in a loss to Harrisburg. His regular turn in the rotation wouldn't come up for another four days...and he showed nerves with the Twins' brass in town.
I'll have some interview excerpts from Rantz and GM Terry Ryan later this week on my blog (I've got about 20 minutes of tape to go through first).
"...which represents about 12 percent of the team's entire payroll"
Um, is that out of the 25 on the team or the 40 man roster? Because if it's out of 25, then 3 players is, oh, 12% of the entire team. Clearly it's not a one-to-one ratio of pay-to-player, but still...
Ramon is actually pronounced more like "Rah-MOAN".
Everyone is forgetting about the other downside of the Ramon Ortiz Signing: Alex Romero.
He was Aaron's #17 Twins prospect this offseason (#3 OF if I remember correctly) and we let him go on the waiver wire as part of the Ramon Ortiz Acquisition.
He is currently sporting a .341/.424/.765 line as a 23 year in AAA for the Diamondbacks' system. Everyone remember this as the Twins bemoan their lack of OF depth and wish that they could have the same sort of depth for hitting as they do for pitching.
This acquisition was a waste of money and cost us a strong OF prospect that could help the Twins right now. It provided the Twins with redundant pitching depth and robbed them of the hitting depth that they need so badly.
Actually wasn't it the Twins insisting on keeping a third catcher up that kept them from keeping romero. Damn Gardy and his phobia of a pitcher hitting. Lord help him if the Twins ever fire him and he can only get a job in the NL
Lerv, that was Aaron's musings on who should have been put on the waiver wire and the rationale why but I don't believe an explanation was ever put forward by the Twins.
In re Alex Romero:
He is currently sporting a .341/.424/.765 line as a 23 year old in AAA for the Diamondbacks system.
As a D'backs fan I was thrilled to read this. Until I went to MiLB.com and found out it isn't true. Not even close. Actually, he is "sporting" a .338/.371/.478 line. Decent numbers yes, but nothing to brag about, especially at hitter-friendly Tucson. He is leading the team in AVG, but is just 4th in OBP and 3rd in SLG. He has only 7 walks in 143 PA's and only 1 HR. He's essentially a younger Jason Tyner. I'm sure AZ would be glad to give him back to the Twins for any of their pitching prospects. Deal or No Deal?
Who the intercourse is DePaula?
The numbers I got were from Baseball America so they may have been old. Baseball Reference verifies your stats. However, concerning your point, Romero is nothing like Tyner. As a 23 year old in AAA, Tyner hit .321/.380/.349/.729.
That OPS is 120 points less than what Romero is hitting currently which is a very significant difference. To compare the two, unless you are factoring in defense which I do not have statistics available, demonstrates that Romero is a far superior player than Tyner at a similar age and level.
For comparison's sake, there is not a AAA OF within 50 points of Romero's OPS thus far (Oeltjen at .794). Considering his performance is .100 OPS points higher than any other DH (Redmond) and .200 points higher than anyone else, even with some dropoff, Romero would probably be helping this team. At worst he would be holding serve as a 23 year old.
As Aaron stated at the time of the transaction, this was not an OF worth giving up for Ortiz.
You are forgetting to adjust for league and park. The PCL is much more hitter-friendly than the IL, and Tucson is at or near the top of all the PCL parks. Last year Tucson had an .821 OPS as a TEAM, including .843 at home. In contrast, Rochester posted a .706 OPS, .719 at home.
Let's be honest: Keeping Garza, Slowey and Baker out of the majors is all about the arbitration clock...
James,
You raise a valid point and since I don't have the stats available I am going to have to go anecdotal.
My only complaint with your argument is that it is sort of a chicken-or-the-egg one. Baseball America has Arizona as a top 5 hitting prospect system and the Twins as a bottom 5 hitting prospect system.
For comparison sake, Cleveland last year had a team OPS of .772 vs. Chicago's OPS of .661. In this case, Chicago actually had a ballpark that favored hitters.
So the question I have to ask is it the talent that caused the stats or is it the ballpark that caused the stats? I lean towards Arizona's AAA team's superior talent as the reason for the higher team OPS but you do raise valid points and I'll assume we have to agree to disagree.
Mark Z -
You probably aren't going to read this, but just in case:
You're partly right. There was a disparity in hitting talent last year between Tucson and Rochester, and that accounts for some of the difference. But not all by any means. If you go to minorleaguesplits.com you'll find Park Adjusted stats for both teams. MLE's too.
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