Here's my question to everyone.
I would assume that all of those Hezbollah supporters don't realize that they're being mobilized just to save Assad from inconvience and to make Lebanon safe for assasination.
So what DO they think they're doing out there?
And if they're a crowd that will believe absolutely every lie Nasrallah comes up with doesn't that prove that Lebanese Shiites are dupes, children and fools? Blind trust in leaders and complete credulity isn't the sort of raw material that you can build a democracy from. A police state, a tragedy, sure, but not a democracy!
Have a safe journey. The senseless death yesterday is the result of Nasrallah calling for action against a demcratically elected government. He is evil, and his followers are being led down a very dark path, unwittingly. I have prayed for peace, but I am not sure the Lebanese deserve it any more. The young people partying in Martyrs Square seem to want to stir things up - well they were already stirred up and they are being led by Nasrallah to take the country over the edge. Lebanon will not become a shia republic and yesterday's appalling death only presages the actions of those in Lebanon who are fed up with Nasrallah's lies and evil intent.
Are you headed where I think you're headed?
Perhaps, then, I'll see you soon.
Eve, the Queen of the Lebanese blogosphere, has made it known she desires a convergence of the fiefdoms for an evening. Most likely, this will occur in Beirut (as all other meetings, besides the one in Broumana have), so hopefully you can join.
Have a safe trip wherever you are going.
Josh S.,
Excellent question. I doubt the HA followers really have much mind to stop and wonder what exactly they are doing this for.
I hate to say it, but there are a LOT of dupes and fools out there (And not just HA or the Shia). The Lebanese people have allowed themselves to be lead unquestioningly by so-called "leaders" for ages. The sectarian/tribal/feudal mentality that exists in that part of the world makes for people not being used to questioning or holding their leaders responsible or accountable. They simply follow them blindly, because, well, that's what you do.
And you are absolutely correct: You cannot build a democracy on such a mentality.
Josh,
While Bad vilbel and I are usually on the same page, or at worst not too many pages apart, I have to disagree with him on this one.
My Impression is that hte Shias feel isolated and that the other sects are "out to get them". Moreover, there is hundreds of years of opression boiling under the surface. I have actually heard the phrase "everyvody else had a turn. Its our turn now!". Add to that , there is a huge fervor associated with the the so called divine victory over Israel, coupled with a sense of self-righteousness and pride that is simply unfathomable. The HA supporters believe that they are the honourable ones, the righteous ones, the proud ones, they have defended teh land land and spilled blood and all that jazz. They also think that the other side is corrupt and treacherous, and that they allied themselves with the west and that there is a "conspiracy" to get Syria and beloved Iran, and therefore it is time to defend them against the evil "zionists and zionist supporters".... In short they are drowning in self-righteousness and fascist style propaganda...
R, so you think they probably know full well that Hezbollah is getting armed by doing Assad's will and that's what they want.. Democracy be damned, peace be damned, everyone should grovel to the Shia or die?
If that's the case then there's no path to sanity that doesn't involve disarming Hezbollah and (possibly) arresting its leaders and propagandists. And of course all of this may be impossible.
Unfortunately people are goal seeking animals. So if the population of the south sets itself goals of a fascist state, they'll make one or kill everyone else trying.
If (as all fascists tend to) they set themselves a goal of war, then they will create a war.
I would think the best hope is to take advantage of the fact that Lebanon isn't a totalitarian state, yet and do "culture jamming". It's hard to fool people when they're completely conscious of what is happening. So we need to raise the consciousness of the Shia. They need to see manipulation as manipulation. They need to see hatred as foolish and unfair. etc.
Obviously I just contradicted myself.
I started off saying that you have to end Hezbollah, but figuring that it isn't possible I finished talking about the alternative.
R,
What you said does not actually contradict my comments.
All those things you say about the Shia feeling like they're entitled to their turn and all that...That is part and parcel to my comments about everyone being dupes.
These kids have been duped to believe that they scored a "victory" against Israel. They are being duped about the pro-western government being "controlled" by the US and the Zionists...
They are being duped into thinking their stance is a patriotic one.
They are being lied to by hypocrites and charlatans like Nasrallah and Aoun, and they are buying every word of it.
You're gonna tell me Nasrallah and Aoun really believe this government is controlled by the US? That Siniora and co. are Zionist agents? That Syria is our friend and wants the best for the Shia people?
You're gonna tell me that the poor shiite farmer from the South who has been told that the war this summer was Israel's fault and that HA was simply defending him from zionist agression. Who's being told the destruction of his village by the IDF was necessary. You're telling me that this poor guy is not a dupe?
Don't even get me started on the Aounists, who think they are actually fighting corruption and for a secular state. The only thing they're fighting for is for Aoun's presidency ambitions.
I stand by my comment. Dupes! All of them!
That doesn't negate your comments, mind you.
Josh,
I agree with your conclusion. Raising awareness of the shia and the aounists is probably the only peaceful way out of this. But that's easier said than done.
When people are so easily duped (again, me and my dupes!) it's way too easy for them to believe the lies they are fed.
And when given 2 stories to choose the truth from, they are always going to choose the one coming from their correligionists and their religious authorities (meaning, the likes of Nasrallah, over say what you or me might tell them).
@ Mustapha
Have a safe trip.
@ John Scholar
I have been thinking about these questions myself lately. First I need to emphasize that I am not Lebanese so I don't know all the peculiarities of Lebanese politics. But I do notice a few things: Lebanon is a true democracy, but a weak and imperfect one, among others because of its sectarian divisions. Instead of a situation in which each citizen has equal voting power, the number of parliamentary seats allotted to the shiites is smaller than would be justified by their presence in the country. So in a sense the shiites are right in demanding more seats in parliament. Yet through that democratic process an utterly non-democratic movement such as Hezbollah may gain power. This is the great paradox of democracy: how do you deal with a political party that tries to come to power through the democratic process, only to kill democracy the moment they come to power? This is a very difficult question but actually I think there is no alternative to just giving in to the demand for fair general elections. If the current "enlightened" parliamentary majority would try to block the way to general elections in which each citizen has equal voting power, then this "enlightened elite" would itself stop to be democratic. They would have to take totalitarian measures themselves, which would lower them to the level of Hezbollah, meaning that there is no democracy left to defend.
So my conclusion is: there should be new general elections without prior constraints on how many parliamentary seats are allocated to each ethnic group etc. Obviously at this very moment this would mean that a group which unfortunately does not have a strong democratic tradition would gain more influence, and at the moment this might bring Hezbollah to power. But another side effect might be that Lebanese politics becomes less entangled with religion and ethnicity. Instead of "Christian" or "Shiite" political parties you might get parties which actually have a vision for the future and a political program. Perhaps people should have a little more trust in the democratic tradition of Lebanon and the attractiveness of democracy in general. I think that in general, democracies have some amount of self-healing power. If Hezbollah comes to power and has its idiotic ways then sooner or later that will be corrected somehow. Compare Hamas in the Palestinians areas. If there would be new elections now, I don't think they would win that many votes as they did earlier this year.
But I have to admit that the result may also look as follows: general elections bring Hezbollah to power, they turn Lebanon into a backward totalitarian state; all the smart and sensible people who can afford it leave the country (if they hadn't left already); the country will continually seek confrontation with Israel and the West in general; and as a result Lebanon will be bombed to bits again and again. In the worst case this situation might only end when the
(continued...)
In the worst case this situation might only end when the countries and powers that finance Hezbollah and al Qaeda (etc) - which are bent on destabilizing countries to turn them into their own battle ground - become poor and lose power themselves. That might happen once the Middle East runs out of oil in about a hundred years (or sooner if the Chinese have their way).
Anyway, to make a long story short, I don't see an alternative to general elections. Either you have general elections, which will bring Hezbollah to power, which may or may not change the country into a totalitarian state bent on war; or you prevent general elections, which for sure means slowly changing yourself into a totalitarian state torn apart by internal strife.
Personally I would bet on general elections. I don't believe the shiites of the south really want to see their country destroyed in a continuing war. They want to be able to work their fields, and I trust they will come to their senses if Hezbollah would start another war next year.
Of course I would be interested to hear what the real experts, the Lebanese on this forum, think about what I wrote above.
traveler,
You raise good points. But some of the premises you started from are faulty. Lebanon is NOT really a democracy, no matter how one tries to sugarcoat it or disguise it.
Democracy, by its very nature, is supposed to be representative. And the current system does not operate that way. So to call Lebanon a democracy is faulty. Democracy also implies the notion that the winner of an election gets to dictate policy until their term expires. This has never been the case in Lebanon (even before the current events). Lebanon has always been ruled by CONCENSUS, meaning all the groups (winners and losers) traditionally agree on how to run the country. I'd argue that this contradicts the very notion of Democracy, which is based on the rule of a majority.
I'd also argue that ruling by concensus simply doesn't work. It never has. How do you make policy in such an environment? You have to have buy-in from EVERY group, for anything to happen. If anyone objects, they can torpedo the whole process. Needless to say, there's always someone who objects, so nothing ever gets accomplished.
The current situation falls under this category. Hizb was part of the government, even though their side was on the losing end of the 2005 parliamentary elections. They objected to the Hariri tribunal issue, and left government. Going by this notion of "rule by concensus" this has meant that Hizb feels the government is no longer legitimate, simply because they left (that's not how democracies work, btw).
I wonder, if the situation were reversed, if the pro-Syria camp had won the elections (kinda like what you suggest might happen) and they decided to run the country in Hizbollah fashion. Would the other parties be equally in their right to walk out of government and claim it is illegitimate?
I agree with you. We need true Democracy here. One man, one vote. But we also need the players to abide by what true democracy means: Winner gets to govern. No more consensus. If you lose, you get to wait until the next elections and try again.
Results of a recent Brookings poll. Nothing we didn't know, but...
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/
ev...2006Lebanon.pdf
Even Though I'm pro-Future, even for a Christian, I think we should come up with Solutions? Causr this might end dirty if these demonstrations persist.
Why not Lahoud Resign, as long as Hezbollah gets what it wants, which is re-elections. There isn't much to fear, Aoun has lost immense support in the past few months. So if anything it'll be more March 14 votes!
I assume you're still unpacking.
It's amazing how much one starts blogging before returning to Lebanon.
Take a chill pill, and listen in your head:
Ya rubou3a biladi, ya a7abba-l-rubu3
Fi .. midri shou .. fou2adi ..
midri shou midri shou ..
Can I just make one little statement ?
"nshallah" has no place in this lebanon. If there will be peace, it will be because PEOPLE reason with eachother.
"nshallah" takes the responsability away from you. "It's not my fault, god made me do these massacres". BULL-shit. "it's the government". BULL-shit. It's YOUR turn to do something.
Guns don't kill people. Gods don't kill people.
PEOPLE kill people.
Guns don't kill people. Gods don't kill people. PEOPLE kill people.
That's funny.
Conversly, we could put God on trial for war crimes!
double faced singers of ya wayl ya wayl
isk tisk task flask lakad fazarani
khareef
kharaf
rabee3
tarabba3a
arba3a
a3raba
a3bara
abraha
@ bad vilbel
Thanks for your comments. They are helpful to me.
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