Adam,

Remember back a few months ago? Decemberish I think, when Harper fired off that letter in response to the critical piece in the Post.

I don't want to rub it in or anything, but you were w-r-o-n-g about how Harper would never become Prime Minister.

Especially since Martin's team of advisors looks far more amateurish than Harper's. Reid, Herle, etc.

He might just win it mostly because of the incompetency of the other side.
Japnaam Singh | Homepage | 04.23.05 - 8:11 pm | #

- Lac-Saint-Louis
- LaSalle-emard
- Mont-Royal
- Pierrefonds-Dollard
- Saint-Laurent-Cartierville
- Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel
- Westmount-Ville-Marie
- Notre-Dame-de-Grace&Lachine
- Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel

to get 68 seats, the BQ must win at least 2 of these and everything else.

I can't see the BQ win any of these.
separatiste | 04.23.05 - 9:33 pm | #

The projection is only opinion. And a computer model based on the outcome of the last election. However, this kind of information is useful. When the election begins, I will factor these things in to the projections.
Jonathan | Homepage | 04.24.05 - 5:18 am | #

Japnaam: The observation was correct at that time. No one foresaw at that time how bad the corruption exposed at Gomery would be. If Harper does become Prime Minister -- and that's still a big if -- it won't be because of him, but rather because Canadians will reject the Liberals. Secondly I think that Martin's advisors have acted anything but amateurish. Their stunt this week by taking the PM on primetime TV was very clever.
Adam | Homepage | 04.24.05 - 12:23 pm | #

Japnaam:
A couple of things to add:

One: Harper is actively looking for a Quebec lieutentant. It could be either Lawrence Cannon or Yves Seguin (or someone else)

Two:The party approved of some Quebec led motions at the convention, primarily the one on abortion and on bilingualism (Both were ones that were created during the Quebec policy conference)

Three: Organizers from other leadership campaigns have now been hired by the party.

Four: Logically, if Harper's letter writing move was so clever, then that policy would have continued. Because it has stopped, we can conclude that they recognized it backfired badly, and have since stopped creating such schemes.

In case no one's noticed, these are ALL policies Adam has written about, either here on his blog or in articles for the National Post ("A Quebec Strategy for Steven Harper")

If anyone should be running anything in---it should be Adam for being so right.
Ken Lobo | Homepage | 04.24.05 - 1:19 pm | #

Adam,

I ran the numbers for the Conservatives at 36 percent the UBC election forecaster a while ago and got approximately the same result. I 160 seat Conservative majority consisting of gains in Ontario, the west and the Maritimes. While the Bloc picked up the Lion's share of seats in Quebec, the election forecaster has the Liberals only winning 8.
Chris | Homepage | 04.25.05 - 3:28 am | #

Well, it's a bit much to argue that a prediction that something would never happen was "correct at that time." Harper will either become Prime Minister or he won't, and we'll know soon enough whether Adam was right.
Taka | 04.25.05 - 4:14 am | #

I think Ken Lobo appreciated a well-thought op-ed... whoever this Liz is... isn't me :p
Liz | Homepage | 04.25.05 - 6:22 pm | #

Actually I've heard Ken Lobo is running in the upcoming federal election. I'm planning to help him out wherever he runs. Some say he'll run in Mississauga, others say Westmount.
James | 04.26.05 - 9:13 pm | #

Not in the near future...sorry!
Ken Lobo | Homepage | 04.26.05 - 10:24 pm | #

Ken, I urge you to reconsider. We don't have a prayer in Quebec unless prominent guys like you are prepard to stand up and be counted.Your party needs you!!
James | 04.28.05 - 1:54 pm | #