ok we get it. TV is not dead. Lets move on to something else. Is futura extra bold condensed dead?
Only on TV. And, by the way, you want to move on? Write your own freakin' blog.
Ask any of the proponents of the 'TV is dead' movement what they do when they get home from work.
My bet, they stick a pizza in the oven and kick back in front of the good ol' idiot box.
Because TV is great, it's mind-numbing, it's escapism, it's a legal high.
But you can't watch it at work. The Internet on the other hand...
Yeah, at the office you can do lots of social notworking
"Commercials can actually improve the TV-watching experience?" Why does TAC find that so hard to accept? A great TV ad is a thing of beauty, a well-told story that draws the viewer in and promotes action. Our only problem is bad ads--you know, the inept, badly cast, poorly voiced, incompetently designed/edited/produced junk that clutters the screen.
There is no such thing as a bad or boring (ad) subject, just badly excuted ads about good and interesting subjects. Put another way, anything--however difficult--can be rendered interesting and acceptable if handled well; nothing, however intrinsically interesting, can survive incompetent treatment.
Unfortunately the ad business falls prey to the latest sexy pitch line and does not bore it's audience with facts.
I agree with most of what you say, but I am worried about DVRs. Why sit through two hours of American Idol when you can get it done in 90 minutes with a DVR? In Garfield’s Ad Age article, he reports that 15-20% of households use DVRS to skip ads. To me, logic says that number will continue to grow, and continue to nick away at the commercial viewing audience. DVRs are just too handy to think otherwise.
TV is far from dead. But the way people watch TV, and ads in particular, is changing.
@Farres
No one is smarter than the facts. Not even Garfield.
@TAC
But you are choosing the facts you choose to believe.
DVR's just give us the satisfaction that we can choose to watch or not watch the ads - they're not evidence that no one will watch advertising anymore. In fact, as TAC points out, the numbers are to the contrary. The DVR is no more of a death knell for advertising, than the refrigerator is (when you go get a snack during the commercial break, get it??).
I wonder if any of the DVR studies have asked those who skip ads if they have EVER stopped their fast-forwarding to watch a commercial they like or have heard about. Now that's a statistic I'd like to add to the pile.
@Farres:
No I'm not. The data is very clear. About 5% of viewing is DVR playback and about half the ads in DVR playback are skipped.
If you've got some other data, let's see it. By the way, "Bob Garfield said" is not data.
I think we're all forgetting the main reason TV is not dead, and likely will never be. The majority of us don't really care what's on, we care what else is on. Look at any TV remote over 6 months old and the button missing most of its paint is the channel button. This is not because of commercials. This is because of the fact that it's fucking empowering as hell to turn some crappy show off and roll the dice to see what's on the next channel. We love to explore the unknown. It's appeals to our most primal need, control. Why do you think the amount of channels has increased about a foxilian times in the last 10 years?
"Sharing music and selling it over the internet isn't going to work."
iTunes is the number one seller of music in the world, and does it DRM free now for all to share. Have record sales declined?
"Newspapers will never die!"
Two major papers are going out of business this year, and several others are going to file for bankruptcy in the next two years.
There were a lot of people who doubted the future of the printing press as well. They were wrong.
TV isn't dead, and likely won't ever die, but the effectiveness of television advertising is what's in question. We have to stop thinking about ways to try and save current constructs and dream of new ways to structure business and execution going forward.
What's the use of fighting change?
Nice to have you back, Josh. Glad to see your spelling has improved.
It must be fun to make up your own quotes and then refute them.
We’re arguing different sides of the coin. Your argument, based on a recent study, is that commercial skipping via a DVR is a small percentage of TV viewership. Okay, but I suggest you Google “DVR usage 2008” for additional, pertinent information.
My argument is that it may be small, but it’s rapidly growing. I think that growth will continue to escalate and threaten television advertising as we know it today. Can you point me to any research that states otherwise?
Finally, never once did I say television is dead. I said it’s changing. Can you refute that?
Who can possibly have the time to watch this much TV? What are the chances that they're employed? I love TV, but employed folks listen to Radio.
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My friends, listen to the The Radio Guy! Radio listeners are your customers, TV watchers are your shoplifters.
This is our new favourite blog, too, and Bob is becoming a bit of a poster boy for the Thinkbox offices!
Re the comments on DVR's, we have a very similar situation here in the UK, and very similar data. Three facts;
1. People watch significantly more TV when they get a DVR - on average around +14% - the pundits never guessed THAT one, did they?
2. The schedules still rule - on average 85% of viewing in those homes with a DVR is to live broadcast TV (i.e. the remaining 15% is almost equal to the overall uplift in viewing)
3. When DVR viewers watch programmes in timeshift mode, the only fast forward between 60% - 70% of the time.
All the above facts come from several different sources (all of which agree with each other) including BARB and BSkyB's Skyview panel. This final fact comes from our observational study on DVR owners, where we observed and recorded all of their TV viewing across 6 weeks...
4. Viewers genuinely believe they use their DVRs and fast forward commercials far more than they do - we had a number of respondents who claimed to fast forward 'all of the time' but we observed them watching lots of ad breaks at normal speed when they had timeshifted (which they also overclaimed massively!)
So, as always, the technology is changing behaviour - but not at all in the ways the the futurists predicted
Over and out!
Ad Contrarian - why did you give radio a new pitch?
David - thanks for more facts.
TV is Dead! But consumers are spending money on multiple new super large screen televisions with all the bells and whistles..... even those young adults who never watch television. I always knew consumers were stupid.
Lois,
Radio Guy is a good friend.
I am sure this has all been said in the last decade, but while TV is strong it is becoming increasingly diluted.
While the cost to make a quality TV spot keeps going up, it is becoming less effective because Grandpa found the Spice Channel.
But on the bright spot we can each film our kids getting stoned at the dentist and get 16 million views.
America, I love you.
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8989177...th_twitters.htm
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