Bruce,
I have long been looking forward to this series. I think it's a great thing that you're undertaking, and I consider it a service.
I just want to clarify something which I'm certain you imply in your post and didn't elaborate on due to its simplicity.
Theoretically speaking, any one of these "proofs" by itself has no value. For example, taking the case of Sinai/Chorev. One can claim that the four sources were divided so that they would fit the Sinai/Chorev dichotomy. Meaning, one could start out by saying: any verse that has Sinai is J or P, any with chorev is E or D. That would obviously prove nothing.
Now this is ridiculous because the four sources explain many differences amongst them, be they divergent words, style, linguistics etc. etc. So the proof lies in the cumulative divisions between the sources that the DH answers. This is something that Friedman emphasizes in "Who Wrote the Bible."
I took care to point this out despite the self-evidence, because I've run into those who don't understand the immense qualitative difference between one piece of such evidence and the cumulative effect of many instances.
That's exactly right, and I too have emphasized that in the posts on Bayes Theorem. More precisely, it is cumulative effect of independent arguments that gives the DH weight. The fact that P uses Sinai and D uses Horeb is not very significant by itself. But if that correlates with 30 other things, all completely unrelated to each other, then that presents a pretty compelling argument.
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