Great post! Orthodox attrition is a growing phenomenon, and while you credit the internet for it, I would actually argue that the internet is helping to shine light on this phenomenon, but is largely not its cause.
Hmmm, so if we want to preserve liberal Judaism, it seems we should put our focus on strengthening Orthodox Judaism.
Rejewvenator - I agree that it is not the cause (I think there are many causes), but I think the internet will increase at least one factor. What do you think the causes are?
David - ironically, yes. I think Judaism functions an interconnected system, and that strengthening any aspect of Judaism ends up strengthening all aspects.
Very interesting, but I can't help but think you're missing several important points.
1) Your interpretation of the data ignores the very significant definitional shift in the meaning of the term "Orthodox" over the period polled. If you retroactively applied the 2001 definition of Orthodox to 1970 (shrinking it massively), you might actually see that exponential growth you say isn't evidenced.
2) Exponential growth by definition isn't impressive in the beginning--but it explodes rapidly once it hits its stride. This is especially important when the numbers started small in the first place. From 1970 to now is barely a generation and half; it's entirely possible that the next census will show the expected exponential effects. I know it's already visible on the streets, in the yeshivas, and even in the growth of products that cater to an exclusively Orthodox market. (And yes, I know about the empty shuls of dead American Orthodox communities of the past.)
3) I strongly believe you're misinterpreting the Orthodox attrition rate. I think that what the survey show as Orthodox attrition is actually evidence of my point #1: the changing definition of "Orthodox." Sure, lots of people who once called themselves Orthodox no longer do. But that's because the definition of "Orthodox" changed, not because they did. The attrition was in the masses of nominally Orthodox, the now nearly defunct category of people who affiliated Orthodox but were not particularly observant. No one I know, and I know gobs of Orthodox Jews, is seeing anything like 42% Orthodox attrition rate. That would 13 kids out of every 30-kid graduating class; that's nowhere near the reality I see on the ground, no matter how hushed up OTD kids are.
4) You overestimate the impact of skeptical knowledge. People are generally religious for social reasons, from the initial socialization into the religion to the community ties that keeps them in for the long haul. So long as the social environment is good, all the skeptical knowledge in the world won't shake most people out of their social comfort zone. Historically, Jews left observance at rates you're considering only when observance was uncomfortable, the source of poverty and limits. Today in America, Jewish observance is marked more by materialism than poverty, no one is losing their job over Shabbos, and observant Jews can be basically anything they want to. Economics would have more effect on attrition rates than all the evolution websites on the Internet.
I won't defend WYGBJ, but your counterarguments have some serious deficiencies.
"Thus, Reform Judaism is more successful than Conservative Judaism in keeping children within the denomination, and Conservative Judaism is more successful at this than Orthodoxy."
Yes, but what does this mean? Are they like a vibrant ecosystem in a great lake or are they more like the Dead Sea where most of the water ends up only to eventually evaporate to nothing? Perhaps the only reason Reform Judaism is so "successful" is because it's the last rung, requiring no real duties or responsibilites and even the most barely self-conscious Jew will just go along with the denomination in name.
If most people who change denominations go from more traditional to less then it would stand to reason that an investment in tradition is called for. This trickle-down demographics would be what's keeping the liberal groups from vanishing on their own.
Hey Mordy, what's up? Long time, no see.
MO - you raise some important points.
Your claim that the definition of "raised Orthodox" has changed over time is undoubtedly correct. The issue is what is the magnitude of this effect.
The way to measure this would be to compare the Orthodox switching rate from the different NJPSs. If this is a significant effect, this rate should be decreasing over time. (Earlier studies will have larger numbers of people who were raised in the 1920s or 1930s as a non-observant nominally Orthodox Jew and later switched; later studies will have larger numbers of people who were raised in the 1980s or 1990s and are still frum.) The magnitude of the decrease will be interesting to observe.
I don't have this data. The best I could find was Table 2 (on p. 21) at http://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/
...text=spp_papers which shows that in 1990, 22% of people were raised Orthodox and 6% were then Orthodox. However, in 2000-2001, 21% were raised Orthodox but 11% were then Orthodox. This weakly suggests that the attrition rate decreased over time. But it could also reflect an increase in the baal tshuvah rate. Also, as footnote 2 notes, the definition of Orthodox is different between these two studies with "traditional" constituting Orthodox in 1990 and Conservative in 2000-2001.
The dataset from the 1990 and 2000-2001 NJPSs is downloadable from the web, but I just don't have time to write the code to crunch these numbers. If anyone has the time, interest, and ability, it would be interesting to see how the Orthodox-switching rate and Orthodox non-switching rate breaks down by age in the two reports. That is, the overall Orthodox switching rate in 2000-2001 might be 48%, but what was it for people 70+, 60-69, 50-59, etc. And what was it for those age groups in the 1990 NJPS?
As OP notes (and as Lawrence King noted in comments a while ago), this model has really odd implications. Because of low birthrates and high assimilation rates, liberal Judaism is not self-sustaining. It simply picks up the spillover each generation from the exponentially increasing Orthodoxy.
Regardless of whether it is correct, it is certainly an interesting "steady state" system.
this post is totaly awesome
I agree with littlefoxling. This post was very very well done.
Thanks, although I am now quite curious as to what the data show in response to MO's point.
Also, some people might switch denominations relatively late in life. (Imagine a 60-year-old with grown children either becoming a BT or leaving Orthodoxy.) Those changes are likely to have a much smaller effect (and perhaps no effect) on the denominational choice of their children, since their children are already grown. Looking at the age breakdown of denominational switching would answer a lot of these questions.
I would be curious to see how this all applies to world Jewry especially Israel.
lf,
you just like it cuz there's numbers being hit around like tennis balls.
Bruce,
Interesting... This isn't a good follow up from Diane's post. I'm more skeptical of Reform then Orthodoxy by a long shot now. 
FU notes LF likes the numbers. I just wanted an excuse to write "Markov chains" in a Jewish blog post. : )
HH notes another interesting point. Yes it would be interesting to see how all these numbers compare those in Israel.
Also, immigration and emmigration are another interesting phenomenon. I would assume the rate of people making aliyah is higher for OJs than non-OJs. So maybe a bunch of these missing OJs are now living in Israel. And probably more secular Israelis move to the US than Orthodox Israelis.
Who cares if our grandchildren are Jewish anyway? If Judaism's not true, what difference does it make? People are people.
And if Judaism is not true, why do you still blog about Jewish issues and call yourself " Jewish Atheist?"
Judaism can be "justified" if it is true or if it is good.
OJ has a complex factual "back story". That is, OJs don't steal and do put on tefillin not necessarily because these are good ideas in their own right, but because God commanded this. And that factual claim has a whole complex series of other factual claims pertaining to the Torah and the oral law and Moses and ....
Like many of us, I am skeptical of these claims.
But some forms of liberal and moderate Judaism justify Jewish practices and believes not necessarily because they are true but because they are good. This does not get you to the level of practice of the haredi world, but it goes well beyond the traditional and ritual practice of the secular world. There's a lot that we can say about all this (hence this blog), but my point here is that I think this form of moderate or liberal Judaism is a good thing.
I want my grandchildren to be Jewish for the same reasons I want them to be good people, and be Americans, and be scholarly, and be thoughtful, and know a lot of math, and play at least some sports, and enjoy music and nature. I think all these things would enrich their lives tremendously. Other people have other ways of living rich and meaningful lives, but these seem not only to work for me, but also are be pretty foundational.
This is not a matter of truth. It is a matter of goodness.
"I want my grandchildren to be Jewish [...] and play at least some sports, and enjoy music and nature."
But do you care which sport they play, which music they enjoy, or which trails they hike? Probably not, because your stated goal is their enrichment, not their imitation of you. So why care if your grandkids are Jewish, rather than religious somehow in a way that enriches their lives? If the truth of Judaism isn't the basis of your desire for them to be Jewish, why would you care if your grandkids enriched their lives with Christianity or Taoism? You may like rock & roll, but they mat like rap. You like Judaism, but they may like Jainism.
Good point. I could make several arguments as to why I think Judaism is better than other religions, but I would certainly have to concede that these arguments might not be compelling to everyone.
However, Jews are raised with Jewish ideas and traditions and beliefs and rituals. We (hopefully) have a connection both with other Jews now and with Jews from long ago, including our ancestors. Being part of this people is special and important and meaningful. And one could not get that sense of belonging-ness and connectedness by simply choosing another religion. (This factor is absent with regard to music, sports, etc.)
Of course, other people with other religions also have that relationship with their religion. But Judaism is a religion, an ethnicity, and a people.
How does one leave the Reform movement? I have a friend who started out as a Reform rabbi, decided that he was too traditional for Reform, went Conservative, decided he was too traditional for that to so he went Orthodox. He tried to resign from the Reform movement out of ideological differences. He was told in response that the Reform movement is a broad based movement that accepts different beliefs. In essence he was being told that he could no reject Reform ideology. There is no ideology to reject.
I don't get comparing 1990 data to 2000 data.
I also don't get why the data only starts in 1970... certainly there was data collected in the 50s...
Anyways...
If one wants to argue about the affects of the internet, one would have to conclude that the internet has increased the number of Orthodox Jews, and that the lack of internet decreased the number of orthodox jews. From 11% to 6% and then a jump up to 10%. Remember, most people didn't have access to the internet before 1992.
Israel's mix and situation is quite different.
In the immigration status, it would be very interesting to break out Israeli's coming to the US, and whether they even respond or are included. On emigration/aliyah, numbers from the US to Israel have been about 500 per year, with it jumping to 1000, 1500, and now 3000 in the past 4 years (due to the new Nefesh b'Nefesh organization). ~80% are orthodox, and 70% are families (usually young families with 2-3 children).
Over 300,000 Israelis are in the US - but the vast majority don't tend to be involved in the Jewish community, any sector, or use any community resources (such as a Federation center) - so maybe they're not showing up at all?
In Israel, over 25% of schoolchildren are now "orthodox", with it reaching 52% in Jerusalem. Conservative and Reform are barely a blip on the radar, maybe 2% and 1% if that. In Israel, it's either actively anti-religious/Jewish, just pure seculre, or very orthodox (though there's lots sect breakdown within orthodox which is not really found in the US).
In Israel, there is an outflow from the orthodox to secular, but also a pretty strong inflow from secular to orthodox. Currently the inflow exceeds the outflow, but there are some strains in the Israeli orthodox system that hint at an increased future outflow (something called "shababniks" - orthodox teenage misfit semi-gangs).
The analysis does not take into account that "orthodox" in 1970 is not the same as orthodox in 2008.
The 1970 orthodox included a huge number of persons affiliated with orthodoxy but not actually observant, while the 2000 survey does not. This accounts for the observed but not actual attrition rate. Thus this past rate is not a good predictor of the future.
The analysis does not take into account that "orthodox" in 1970 is not the same as orthodox in 2008.
The 1970 orthodox included a huge number of persons affiliated with orthodoxy but not actually observant, while the 2000 survey does not. This accounts for the observed but not actual attrition rate. Thus this past rate is not a good predictor of the future.
A better indication is the increase from 1990 to 200, of almost 100 percent.
See:
http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/...199-
2174930_ITM
Reform may be better at keeping people "within the denomination". Even if it is, how many of those marry goyim? Even if their children are not halachically Jewish they will still be considered Jewish by Reform and so boost Reform numbers. I wonder how many Reform members will actually be Jewish in 100 years...
I'm surprised that each column totals 100%, since there is no row for "converted to another religion". Does this mean that for each of your four categories, less than 0.5% of the children raised in that tradition end up not identifying as "Jewish" at all? Or does this mean that those who ceased to call themselves Jewish were not included in these numbers?
How does one leave the Reform movement? I have a friend who started out as a Reform rabbi, decided that he was too traditional for Reform, went Conservative, decided he was too traditional for that to so he went Orthodox. He tried to resign from the Reform movement out of ideological differences. He was told in response that the Reform movement is a broad based movement that accepts different beliefs. In essence he was being told that he could no reject Reform ideology. There is no ideology to reject.
Benzion Chinn
Interesting, because i have a friend who was pretty much friendily kicked out of the Reform movement for being too traditional.
I expect that my family and children would answer "just Jewish," while observing kashrus, shabbos, yomim tovim, etc.
Maybe there is a problem with CURRENT definitions, and not just previous / changing definitions.
Two points:
1) In addition to the changing definition of "Orthodox" over the years, another factor is the tendency to under-report the Orthodox community.
These studies are generally sponsored by the organization of secular American Jewry, and so they often have practical problems, credibility problem, or pre-existing bias when it comes to accurately sampling the Orthodox and getting Orthodox participation.
2) Regarding Israel - there are many Israelis who describe themselves as "completely secular" - yet have levels of knowledge, religious practice, and national affiliation that would place them solidly within the "Conservadox" wing of American Conservative Judaism.
So the terms are not at all interchangeable.
great post! The guy who broke down the situation in Israeli oversimplified things ad absurdum. Even more than in the states, these essentially North American denominations are meaningless.
LK: "I'm surprised that each column totals 100%, since there is no row for "converted to another religion."
I believe that in the 2000-2001 NJPS, Jews by birth who converted to another religion were not considered Jews within the meaning of the study, although they were separately identified and noted. (There is a Jewish-star shaped chart in the first few pages of the study discussing this issue.)
First of all - great post! This is the first time I have seen this blog (I got here via Hirhurim) and I am impressed with the quality and tone.
The analysis is careful and interesting and seems to demonstrate that WYGBJ is out of sync with reality.
However, I agree with several other posters that the anecdotal reality seems to be very much in sync with WYGBJ.
I cannot explain the discrepancy but I think MO made some very good points with which I agree and which would seem to account for (at least) part of the discrepancy.
Theoretical analyses aside, however, I would like to provide your audience with some (admittedly anecdotal) information from my own experience.
One of my sons married a woman whose grandparents have 4 children. My daughter-in-law's mother (my machatenesta) has 11 children. Each of her 3 siblings has more children than she does!
I can testify that, to date, all these 45+ grandchildren are Orthodox. Many of them are married and have growing families of their own. I don't know how many great-grandchildren there are (from all 4 siblings) but my machtenesta alone has more than 20 grandchilren (and counting). Since the oldest great-grandchild is only 13, it is very safe to say all the great-grandchildren are Orthodox at this time.
This single example of exponential growth is occurring (more or less) in many similar Orthodox families. While Orthodox Jews always had slightly more children on average, this move towards very large families seems to be a recent phenomenon. I believe that the next NJPS will start to reflect this explosion in the Orthodox population and will begin to validate WYGBJ.
I am impressed with the quality and tone.
Thank you. The three of us try to maintain a pretty respectful tone, as well as cover serious topics in a serious way, and I'm glad that it seems to be working.
Yes, there certainly are some, and perhaps many, Orthodox families that fit the WYGBJ model: low intermarriage, high number of children, and (implicitly) low denominational switching. I was just surprised that the expected increase did not show up in either the 1990 or 2000-2001 NJPS, and was trying to figure out why.
The other part omitted from the WYGBJ model is the response of CJ and RJ to these problems. The Reform Judaism I grew up with in the 1970s was pretty vapid. But Reform Judaism has realized the problem and is adapting. It is an open question as to whether this will be successful, but the point is that the assumption that things will remain the same is unfounded. (It at least takes some arguing, rather than assuming.)
Similarly, CJ may be experiencing a decline in numbers, perhaps largely caused by demographics, but my Conservative Synagogue is hopping, as is several other Conservative Synagogues in Los Angeles.
One of the best books on this subject is: "The Conservative Movement in Judaism" by Drs. Daniel Elazar and Rela Mintz Geffen. They have an entire Chapter on Demographics and conclude as mnay have above that the Orthodox attrition rate has basically stabilized as it was a result of "nominal Orthodox" leaving the fold.
If you have the book or can get your hands on it, they cover this on pages 105-106.
Some quotes:
"...there has been a transformation in the category whereby the nominally Orthodox have fallen by the wayside, and most of those who define themselves as Orthodox really are"... and later in discussing Orthodox attrition they write "...this trend has now come to an end, as 89 percent of those currently Orthodox were raised in Orthodox homes. Currently he Orthodox are having more children and are retaining their allegiance..."
Read the whole thing. The book is fascinating in a whole bunch of ways and this chapter on demographics is no exception.
Thanks OJoe. I just ordered a copy. I'll take a look.
interesting post. i recall an article by jonathan rosenblum (a very smart haredi baal t'shuva writer) who noted that attrition among the haredi who live in mixed neighborhoods was much lower than those who lived in insular neighborhoods. i was surprised by that. seesm that when confronted by non-orthodox elements, it makes one appreciate it more and not take it for granted.
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