AmericanPapist Comments
Thompson and Giuliani somewhere in there at 5th/6th - how dismal.
Well, neither guy has spent a dime to campaign there, so that's expected. But it goes to show how questionable Giuliani's strategy of completely staying out of all the races until Florida is. He absolutely needs to win the state or he might be cooked, which is fine with me.
Here's hoping Fred pulls out a strong showing, preferably first or second, in South Carolina, which is what he's banking on. I'm still a Fred guy because, like Huckabee, he's socially conservative, and unlike Huckabee, he's conservative on the other issues as well. After that it's Romney, and after that - weeping.
I'd say the main thing of interest here is if the Romney campaign survives. I think anything less than a win here will sink his ship. Ron Paul also has a chance of breaking into double-digits. If he can't, I think that seriously compromises whatever slim viability he could claim.
I think anything less than a win here will sink his ship.
On that, you may be right.
It will be interesting to see what happens to Romney. He's been campaigning hard in the state--he was even the guest speaker at my brother's graduation from Hillsdale last May. He annoyed me then!
Romney has the problem that he can't win over evangelicals in the South--or at least I don't think he can. No Republican can win without the South, obviously. Huckabee has the problem that he can't win over moderate Republicans and independents. McCain might be able to assuage the fears of the much-more conservative base (the one that's catered to by the National Review), but even that I'm not certain of. George Will, of whom I'm big fan, never hesitates to blast McCain, the person I think is best suited to beating a Democrat this year. I think all signs say that the GOP is screwed this election unless Democrats are dumb enough to nominate Hillary, which would arouse even the most apathetic conservative voter regardless of the candidate. Rove's plan to establish a conservative legacy backfired like something severe.
Nathan brings some up good points about the electoral vulnerabilities of all the GOP potential nominees, and he's also right that those problems would be mitigated by a Clinton nomination.
The only GOP candidate who doesn't upset some portion of the base is Thompson, but he may not have the cross-over appeal of Huckabee or McCain. I would rank him second in overall electability behind McCain - mainly because the base won't stay at home or vote for a third party if Thompson is the candidate. The rest of the order of electability would be Huckabee, then Romney (who is personally my second choice, but I concede all the problems that Nathan mentioned, though I don't think they will be quite as severe), and then finally Rudy.
The MI primary is, of course, much ado about nothing. Democratic delegates are barred from the convention, and the Republican delegation is cut in half, because of squabbles within the parties. So Clinton achieved nothing, and Rommey picks up a rump cohort of Republicans from a state that is in Democratic hands away. So what?
So what?
Well, you could probably say the same thing about Iowa and New Hampshire. Michigan is still more delegates than New Hampshire and Iowa combined, or close to it. It's all about the stupid horserace.
Really, it's no way to choose a candidate, but what are we going to do?
Agreed.
I voted in the Michigan primary. I don't know if it's legal for me to tell you whom I *actually* voted for, but I'll tell you that both before the election and currently I was a Ron Paul supporter. That isn't to say that I wouldn't vote for someone else. Ron Paul comes closest to my political philosophy. This is especially true since after years of studying Catholic thought at Franciscan University, I can no longer support the war in Iraq. Nevertheless, some of the other candidates hold some of my political philosophy (such as some form of subsidiarity) and many of them are pro-life in the abortion area. I would vote for any of the candidates but Guiliani in the general election. Nonetheless I intend to work for a Ron Paul victory, or at least enough support to impact the discussion.
totus,
You are perfectly free to tell anyone you wish who you voted for. A secret ballot is intended to protect your right to not disclose your vote, but in no way should that right be confused with an obligation.
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