Gravatar Hmmm.

I think the questions is rather different. No one (except herself) was interested in the odds that she in particular was going to win again. The probability we are really measuring is whether ANYONE who had already won more than a million would win a million again (anyone of the previous winners winning again would generate a news story)

The odds that one winner would win again are really quite low, in my view.

There is a familiar problem with birthdays that is relevant. If you are in a room with 30 people it is unlikey that you have the same birthday as anyone else there. But it is likely that two people in the room share the same birthday.


Gravatar I'm not sure you can multiply up like that for scratchcards the way you would for a lottery.

If the lottery has ten possible outcomes, then buying tickets covering all ten guarantees a win. But ten independent scratchcards each have the same odds of winning, independent of each other - you don't increase your chances tenfold.


Gravatar I should add that you're right if that's how their "lottery scratchcards" work - i.e., there is a winning card, like a golden ticket. In that case, buying more cards does increase your chances.


Name:

Email: (Only used for Gravatar)

URL:

Comment:
:) ;) :( :lol: :o( 8)
Bold Italic "Quote" Link