I'MMA LET YOU FINISH
How the f**k is it that high?
CBS news tonight from an EPA report says that the White House pressured EPA to downplay the health hazards at the twin tower site. What will it take for the public to rise up and demand this administration be removed and given life behind bars?
How low must W go before he ceases to be "wildly popular"?
As Atrios said, this confirms the earlier Zogby numbers, both on overall approval and on re-elect.
Richard,
Don't worry. The trend is down down down for Bush. We have more than a year until the elections for Bush to hit rock bottom. I have a feeling that more scandals, not less, will continue to surface from this administration and continue to chip away at those numbers until he is _well_ below 50 percent. (Then who will be unelectable, huh?) I think capturing Bin Laden or Saddam at a timely moment could cause a spike in his numbers, or even a terrorist attack on US soil. But then he will keep sliding.
Mr 77:
Wish I had your optimisim, but Rove has many tricks up his arse and with the medias help and a frightened and gullible public, I'm afraid of the outcome. With all the major fuck-ups of this administration and still have 46% re-elect numbers does not sound that positive. Keep hearing everyday from the SCLM how the economy is taking off despite the number of layoffs continuing up. Guess only time will tell.
Mainstream media will keep the approval ratings fairly steady instead of plummeting as they should, by playing down the lies and deceit, when they bother to report on that at all.
Those polled who want to see Bush replaced may change their minds if the primaries don't swing in their candidate's favor.
Truth is, most voters don't keep up with the latest political news, or check alternate new sources. Many folk don't have the will to make their own opinions on politics.
The surprising part of this isn't that Bush's popularity has plummeted, but that a Zogby poll found some sort of corroboration.
Good news on both counts, regardless.
"Bush at 53"...is that his age, or his I.Q.?
I've said this for a year now....When Shrub's approval rating hits 45 percent, expect an "event".
Wish I had your optimisim, but Rove has many tricks up his arse and with the medias help and a frightened and gullible public...
Too bad Americans are so wimpy.
Not to sound conspiratorial, but does has anyone else read today's article in the Guardian that speculates that the US and Pakistan pretty much know where Osama Bin Laden is but have a tacit agreement to leave him be for now, ostensibly for fear of destabilizing Pakistan? Could it be that he's being saved instead for a rainy day?
The story's at http://www.guardian.co.uk/
alqaid...1028044,00.html
From the SFGate websit:
National Security Council played the key role, filtering incoming data on ground zero air and water, Horinko said. "I think that the thinking was, these are experts in WMD (weapons of mass destruction), so they should have the coordinating role."
Yes, but what does friable asbestos, airborne lead mean to the NSC? Shit, that's what. The goverment (OSHA, EPA) are filled with industrial hygenists who are expert in this matter. There's a library of documentation dating back to the 1970s. What's that smell? Oh, nevermind. It was just more smoke being blown up my ass.
Let us not forget it's almost (heads bowed please).... September. Or have you all forgotten. I'm sure there will be another special tribute/campaign fundraiser where the Resident will fly in on the back of a bald eagle he rescued from a forest fire. Country star Darryl Worley will be singing a new song about what it means to be an American and the entire event will close with little Georgie boy patting a tiny colored child on the head.
That'll bring them pesky poll numbers back where they oughta
be, dern it!
I think I need to go puke now...
that may be his poll#s. but in the both. how many will wanna put the simian back in the WH?
While the low Bush poll numbers warm my heart, I do not expect them to fall much further from here. There is a natural ceiling for an incumbant President. Add to that the fact that this is still a closely divided country, and that Bush's base is very unified. That means no drop to 45. Not going to happen. However, low 50's are a very unremarkable place for a President to be. It means he has lost the good will of people in the middle, centrists, independents, etc. He had them on his side after 9/11. He doesn't have those groups now. The Democrats will win if they can woo them permanently for 2004. That still remains to be seen.
Anybody noticed the wild flailing 'activate the Republican base' stuff this week?
Fetus is a person...
Kissy-kissy to the Anti-Abortion movement.
Demonstrate about the marble monument...
Kissy-kissy to the Fundamentalist Christian Right.
Also, what is with the recess appointments? Pipes to the Peace Institute!?! Yeah, Baby! There's a nutjob in the chicken coop there!
.
It's not "validation". it's "reliability".
Right now the confirmation of the re-elect numbers first published this week by Zogby is what is critical. If it continues to go down quite gradually to about 35 (Bush's base) then what it really means is that many many voters will be taking a very serious look this fall and winter at the potential replacement offerings running for the Democratic Nomination. That is what is important right now -- along with what zogby found earlier, that voters believing the country wrong tracked had significantly increased.
This is straightforward marketing -- is there a market for a new product? Right now the trend is yes. I just wish Newsweek broke it down by state and by demographic factors. I want to know "WHO" is changing their mind.
On bin Laden in Pakistan. Please read up a bit on the Tribal Agencies or Territories along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan. It is an ancient, lawless, romantic region of the world, and for the most part the Pak government does not control it, and cannot even send its own officials into the area without permission.
You can bet that lots of money is changing hands -- both in Pakistan and in the Tribal Agencies. Bin Laden probably has to pay the tribes as well as the ISI for protection -- and that can be a good income in that region. But should he stop paying, or the consequence to Tribal Autonomy or self governance be threatened, things will change. Right now Musharif does not have sufficient political reserves to act -- there is simply too much domestic support for Islamicists, many of whom have bin Laden connections. It is very much a mistake to only see this as only related to Bush's electorial interests. This "game" of negotiation about preservation of Tribal Autonomy goes back centuries, and most who play the game don't track American Elections.
I think I agree with several others here - I think that September is "ROLLOUT THE PRODUCT" for this White House. I heard something on NPR that the guy (his name? don't remember...) in "charge of finding the WMD" has said that there will be some big relevations in September. They seem to like this approach - let the media feed on speculation, bad numbers, etc for a few weeks and then surprise them from a different angle. The numbers shoot back up. And the Pavlovian Americans eat up that Fox pablum!
Sorry, Bush is screwed. Too many lies.
chickachicka-
http://www.freerepublic.com/focu...ws/961260/
posts
Yeah they quote Golem- I mean Bob Novaks article. Some of the posts are just... well you can check it out if you want to.
chickachicka: If they have real news about locating the "WMD" then delaying the news is plainly stupid and a violation of the public trust. They have nothing but more of the same: thin claims with no evidence.
If they have been sitting on the real thing in order to roll it out for thier own political gain, while American soldiers have been dying in the botched occupation, how can they expect the possible expect us to view it as a positive development or even that they are telling the truth?
Okay, I just spent three minutes in Freeperville and I think that smell is desperation. There are no "WMDs". If David Kay has evidence, it would have been revealed by now and the newspapers would have been running it on the front page. There is no evidence. The administration promises regarding the Kay report was more of their holding pattern maintained in hopes that they would find something, anything.
The freepers are grasping at straws. The other smell over there is fear.
Sara, I recognize that there are domestic Pakistani domestic considerations are very real in terms of entering the tribal areas with military force. But if Bin Laden really is such a priority, aren't there a nearly unlimited number of carrots and sticks the Bush administration can apply to Musharraf to get him to cough the guy up? Resumed military aid, tilting against India, favorable treatment of textile exports, etc.
However optomistic these poll numbers may seem, just remember they are ultimately meaningless. We didn't elect this guy the first time! What makes anybody think they won't throw another election?
Oh, I don't necessarily believe they have "real news" - probably just a fax from that friend of a friend of an exiled iraqi's neighbor who knew David Kay's keg buddy from years ago.
I remember last September and October - dire predictions of nuclear war, biological and chemical weapons, secret evidence, yada yada, mixed in with anniversary rememberances of 9-11, lots of speeches, congressional testimony... And, seemingly, all released on Friday afternoons at about 4:55. Perfect for sunday morning spin...Bush had a very questionable August and September really turned his numbers around, as I recall. Someone should do a study of the press release-numbers cycle-exact timing of this white house...
But they were far more successfull with last year's ad campaign than they will be this year. They have nothing but hot, moist carbon dioxide. the shit is coing to hit the fan in September, but in a good way.
I think that David Kay is definitely firing up the machine for a September rollout of Saddam's WMD enterprise. It will, no doubt, be all his aborted "programs," not his arsenal of bad stuff. Much will be made of intention and possibility, little mentioned of actuality. Brows will be furrowed. Poor human rights records reviewed. Calls to the Wall Street Journal editorial board will be placed.
i was watghing fox on friday to see if they mentioned the franken suit, and brit hume asked hannity about the zogby results, and hannity said he didn't buy it, that zogby got the numbers wrong. he sounded worried and said he'd have to see more polls showing bush's numbers declining. i thought, you haven't seen the trend yet, asshole? wonder if he buys it now?
If we find WMDs, if Iraq becomes stable, if the economy improves, if Bush gets Rumsfeld, Cheney, Ashcroft to resign, then he might have a chance in 2004.
Problem is, we who say "We told you so!" will come off as gloating as America goes through one of its worst years in generations.
The Wash Post had an article recently about how W's poll numbers were "stabilizing." Funny, these latest figures don't seem to corroborate that statement. Judging from Pollkatz's "Approval" graph, the recent trend since the "Mission Accomplished" stunt is more steeply downward than the long post-9/11 slide.
Swoosh is right. The Post was utterly irresponsible to print that crap about Bush's numbers stabilizing. They jumped the again and went way beyond what their own data allowed them to responsibly conclude. This is evidence that they are trying to kiss conservative ass.
Bush is "unlectable."
Please excuse me, I meant to say "Bush is unelectable."
There's nothing wrong with the polls that can't be solved with finding Saddam Hussein, Bin Laden, or WMD in large enough quantities.
I remember his numbers were about the same right before the war started.
The same people who said they didn't support the war unless under a UN mandate also said they supported the war period, after it had started. In other words, they gave up on their convictions once they knew they weren't worth a damn and the war had started.
MYOB'
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The numbers are encouraging, but I'm not sure it is enough. I would love to know the numbers in the swing states. Also, it is tough to make predictions without an opponent for Bush. Rove will start the smear campaign as soon as he knows who to smear, which will change Bush's reelect numbers. Rove's strength as an advisor has always been dirty smear campaigns.
Big Tex-
Doesn't "unlectable" sound like something BUSH would say? 
With any luck, there will come about a magical moment in the near future, when Bush's approval numbers dip below 50%.
This, finally, will shatter the illusion that Bush is a "popular" president -- an illusion that has been self reinforcing in a thousand ways since 9-11. Both the press and the public will be willing to look at the man and his administration with a truly critical eye, and realize how bad things really are: the historic, unprecedented incompetence and arrogance that is the Bush administration.
Bush is actually quite limited in what he can offer Pakistan in trade. If he opens up textiles, North and South Carolina and maybe Georgia become electorially difficult for him. I think India has a bottom line on the F-16's which are nuclear capable, and in the last ten years Indian Business has become a major lever in the US.
Musharraf's problem is profound -- Pakistan has never become a national state in the classic sense -- identity is with tribe or province much more than with Islamabad. In many respects the tribes operate in their self-interest -- the same way the Sindi's do, the Punjab's do, etc., and virtually nothing Bush can offer has much meaning to them and their interests. Musharraf represents the only true national institution (the Army) which has been Islamicized beginning with General Zia's administration in the 1980's. Right now most of the action in Afghanistan is cross-border hit and run attacks that target US forces and Afghan national units -- but have no consequences for the Tribes in Pakistan, as neither US nor Pakistani forces can move in or through tribal territory. Yes, they make great money offering bin-Laden "hospitality" but he and his men also protect the autonomy of the tribal areas and are a valuable profit center.
From Pakistan's national interest -- the idea of a unified authentic national state in Afghanistan is a very real threat -- first because it likely would have normal relations with India and Iran, and because it would thwart Pakistan's interests in developing trade with Central Asia. Pakistan's interest are with that whole region being weak and unstable, and unfriendly toward India. For the past 20 plus years this has also been the interest of the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia, which is why they have poured so many resources into Pakistan.
You are all a bunch of fools. What makes you think there's even going to be an election if he's trailing?
Lincoln, another Rethuglikkkan, declared martial law and revoked habeas corpus.
So there's precedent for it.
Bush is "misunderlectable".
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