I'MMA LET YOU FINISH
When you've got rumors of Buffett and Soros betting against the dollar in foreign exchanges, you've got to worry about interest issues.
Welcome back from shopping, Atrios. So did you do your bit for the money supply?
It could'nt be clearer that the US is stepping onto economic terra incognita with the combination of recession, jobless recovery, and economic "management" exclusive devoted towards shifting the outputs of the national economy directly into the pockets of the 5% of the population that already has almost all of the wealth of the country held as private assets.
If the monetary supply is dropping wouldn't that curb inflation? Is that a good thing or do we want a little inflation in the economy?
If you have a job, own property and owe credit card bills you might be happy for a bit of inflation, so long as the labor market keeps up.
Of course, there are 3 million less jobs now than there were 3 years ago...
If the money supply is falling it means that greenspan's efforts to use monetary policy - low interest rates - to expand the economy aren't actually working. By keeping the price of money - short term rates - low you should encourage people to borrow more and therefore there's more money sloshing around leading to greater demand. But, if the ms is actually contracting..
I really wish that Kellner had offered more than the invocation of the Great Depression and that Nathan had invoked more than an unqualified analogy to a sick patient. Where did the money go to, and strictly speaking, what are the real possible outcomes?
But ya see Atrios, neither Nathan nor Kellner offered a) a realistic breakdown of the effect that seems to be witnessed in terms of concrete economic tangibles, or b) a realistic breakdown of possible outcomes in terms of concrete economic tangibles. What I would hope to see are some metrics predicted and a systemic description of consequences of continued money supply shrinkage. People invoke the "liquidity trap" without explaining it. The best explanation I've seen is that the decline in liquid capital reduces spending which reduces economic functioning which reduces capital which reduces spending which reduces economic functioning etc. However, it would be nice to see someone give some metrics to watch, at least.
Unemployment Rates in Enlightened European Countries:
Italy 8.5%
France 9.7%
Germany 9.4%
Spain 11.2%
...
European Union (as a whole) 8%
Europe-like Canada 8%
Unemployment Rate in a Country Run by a Reckless, Ignorant Cowboy:
USA 6%
What's M5? The computer that nearly destroyed the Enterprise?
That's what I ask myself at the end of every month - where did my money supply get to?
I know there's a good answer to this question, but no one's told me yet, so here goes...
If we have very low inflation, a large deficit, and a shrinking money supply, why not just print up money to pay off the debt?
Anonymous: why don't you post the regular quality-of-life reports comparing the US to the rest of the western world? The Enlightened Europeans in general have a much better average quality-of-life, based on numerous metrics, than the US.
The asshole reckless cowboy comes from a region of the nation that, as a block, has greatly elevated crime rates, illiteracy rates, poverty levels, wealth inequity in general, and class stratification then the rest of the nation. Texas is not a model for the US, nor is Mississipi - Texas and Mississipi compete with each other for being the worst states in the union in many concrete ways - and that unemployment rate being low like that is a function of big coastal cities (ie, liberal environments) driving and subsidizing the rest of the economy.
Did anyone see the news piece (ABC?) yesterday or the day before where WalMart is seeing demand drop off the cliff a few days before pay day? They say that people are cutting their purchases *across the board* (including food), indicating that people are literally running out of money every pay cycle.
They also indicated that this is a pattern they've never seen before -- usually the drop off is much more gradual.
Anon 3:40 - care to post infant mortality rates? Gun murders? All murders?
Or maybe we can look at state-level unemployment. Comparing Massachusetts to Mississippi would be fun. Or Oklahoma to Oregon.
Unemployment Rate in a Country Run by a Reckless, Ignorant Cowboy:
USA 6%
Anonymous | 11.28.03 - 3:40 pm | #
=========
Comparative unemployment rates are meaningless without knowing things like labor participation rates.
smarter anonymous monkeys, please.
And immigration policies.
Anon-
I don't know the answer for this, but I wonder if the unemployment numbers are measured the same here and there. For example, my understanding is that in old Europe you are not likely to run out of benefits after 6 months - so there are probably fewer people dropping off the unemployment ranks and falling into the "no longer looking for work" class - a pretty big number here, and not included in the 6%.
Also, just out of curiousity, are you giving Bush credit (blame?) for 6%, or is it someone else's responsibility (fault).
A book or three could be written on this. I'll try to be brief. Money is created essentially in one way now that metal based coins and notes are not the money, that being, traditionally, thru bank lending in a freactional reserve banking system.
That traditional mechanism has become obsolete thru the creation of the credit mania offered up by Wall Street thru the securitizaion of all manner of debt and mortgage lending mania. Both in these create money as well, or rather they create their own liquidity. A subtle point perhaps that I am sure will confuse everyone, even me.
Whatever. In puzzling over the drop in broad M's (M3 & MZM) I conclude the drop is the result of the mini crash in mortgage lending that started in the summer when rates spiked up.
The lack on inpact upon the economy, growing now, and the financial markets and the real estate market, both inflating nicely calls into flies in the face of what we think should happen with a shrinking money supply.
We are in no
How many Anonymous folks are there? I wish Haloscan didn't allow "Anonymous" as a handle.
I kinda feel there is one Anonymous who asks some excellent, thoughtful, contrary questions. And some random Anonymi with scattered opinions. And some troll Anonymi visiting while taking a break from freeping and wanking.
Are "If the monetary supply is..." Anonymous and "Unemployment Rates in..." Anonymous and "Did anyone see..." Anonymous and "Unemployment Rate in" Anonymous "Comparative unemployment.." Anonymous all the same person.
Anonymous - tell us how many of the above posts belong to you.
Anon.:
Since I come from the country you list with the highest unemployment rate (Spain) I can happily tell you that the rate itself is meaningless. Why? Because there are some mitigating factors which make a simple comparison of rates useless: issues of quality of life, the fact that Spain is less densely populated than the USA, there is more parity between agriculture and other businesses, the relationships among family members is closer and more supportive than in the USA, the fact that elder care and childcare is more often done in the home, that employed persons are paid a better wage in comparison to the USA, and etcetera.
Unemployment is an issue in Europe, but the social support structures in Europe are far better than those in the USA, so being unemployed there is far less humiliating/problematic than it is here.
Think Krugman is shrill now? Wait till the liquidity trap comes to pass...
Complete Unemployment Rate data for OECD nations:
Korea 3.8
Luxembourg 3.8
Switzerland 3.9
Netherlands 4.2
Austria 4.5
Norway 4.6
New Zealand 4.7
Ireland 4.7
United Kingdom 5.0
Japan 5.1
Denmark 5.5
Sweden 5.5
Australia 5.8
Hungary 5.9
United States 6.1
Czech Republic 6.8
Portugal 7.4
Canada 8.0
Belgium 8.0
Italy 8.5
Finland 8.9
Greece 9.2
Germany 9.4
France 9.5
Spain 11.2
Slovak Republic 15.9
Poland 20.0
[[Anonymous - tell us how many of the above posts belong to you.]]
In this thread, all posts above that have
http://bashanonymous.blogspot.com
as my Homepage are mine.
I don't know if this will hold in the future, because I seem to have a fairly large band of "devotees" who try to discredit me, so they may put that blog address in the Homepage field to try and pull a ruse.
We should return to the barter system. I've got a lot of already cooked turkey on hand if anyone is interested.
Anonymous, how can anyone actually bash someone who is signing comments as "anonymous?" How can anyone bash an unknown?
One more anonymous commenter and the whole system crashes - whether mine or the computer's is a close question.
Anonymous, how can anyone actually bash someone who is signing comments as "anonymous?" How can anyone bash an unknown?
====
For once, can we stick to the subject?
The complete OECD report on employment:
http://www1.oecd.org/publication...ok/
8103091E.PDF
It sure would be nice to have a source for those unemployment rates.
Everyone please take note that the Democratic Socialist nation of Sweden has a MUCH better (lower) unemployment rate than the US.
[[It sure would be nice to have a source for those unemployment rates.]]
Sorry, forgot to put the link to that.
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/41/...13/
18595359.pdf
Unemployment Rate in a Country Run by a Reckless, Ignorant Cowboy:
USA 6%
Anonymous | 11.28.03 - 3:40 pm | #
=========
You also may wish to note that that rate is over 50% higher than the one when we had a "sex-craved Communist who disgraced the dignity of the White House" running things.
Now if only Bush were sex-craved...
Everyone please take note that the Democratic Socialist nation of Sweden has a MUCH better (lower) unemployment rate than the US.
Copernicus
That's right! Gee, and they don't have a human tide of refugees fleeing that "oppressive" socialist nation of Sweden either! Put that in your pipe right wing shrills and smoke it.
Thanks Good Anonymous for the source.
The issue, of course, is not the instantaneous unemployment rate, or fraction-of-a-percent fluctuations in the unemployment rate. The rate itself may not even be a good indicator of unemployment in the US, and the instantaneous value is irrelevant.
The US has had the worst period of sustained job losses since the Great Depression, and this has taken place under the economic "management" of a group of radical right corporate greed junkies who have only worked to serve the wealthiest few percent of the population. A .1% change in unemployment is at this point irrelevant. These corporate greed junkies, who are fighting to offshore middle class jobs even as we write these posts to each other, are engaged in a class war in which the right wing is fully involved in a jihad against the middle class. They want to roll back to the Victorian Era of economic "management".
That is the point. The employment situation is not getting any better. Ther
These corporate greed junkies, who are fighting to offshore middle class jobs even as we write these posts to each other, are engaged in a class war in which the right wing is fully involved in a jihad against the middle class. They want to roll back to the Victorian Era of economic "management".
That is the point. The employment situation is not getting any better. There is a war on the middle class underway. The entire notion of middle class prosperity is under attack. Paying attention to a .1% fluctation in the rate at which government unemployment claims are newly filed is simply being distracted from the big picture.
Thanks to my alter-ego for reminding me of this:
----------
"Don't 'Limbaugh' that data
In a wonderful essay 'Mad About Measurement' (see References), Tom DeMarco creates the verb 'to Limbaugh' to invent a term for the selective use of data, in other words using data that supports your position and discarding any data that has the nerve to contradict you! I'm sure there are good liberals who do this too, but they aren't as visible (in all senses of the word), so I like this term. DeMarco is certainly implying that this is done deliberately, but it is also all too human to have more confidence in data that supports your world view than data that contradicts it. This is an urge that must be resisted when doing a scientific experiment, if for no other reason than to prevent being embarassed when your experiment can't be replicated, or worse, is disproved!"
http://www.cs.umd.edu/~mstark/
ex...ml#anchor244371
Unemployment Rate in a Country Run by a Reckless, Ignorant Cowboy:
USA 6%
Unemployment rate in a Country Run by a (so-called) Murderer, Adulterer, Sexual-Harrasser, and Devil Worshipper:
USA (2000) 3.9%
I found Anon's comment interesting, so I went and looked up a study (June 2000) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that performed adjustments on intl unemployment data to bring them in line with US methods of collecting the data. Their adjusted findings (for 199
:
Netherlands - 4.0% (haven of laissez-faire capitalism 
)
US - 4.5
UK - 6.0
Canada - 7.5
Sweden - 8.9
Germany - 9.5
EU - 9.8
France - 11.4
Italy - 11.7
Similar rates were found when the US rate was adjusted to the Euro models.
However, I think you're all missing the point. We shouldn't be the crowd crowing about how Europe RUL3Z and America SUX--what's important to note here is the major and lasting jump in unemployment under Bush's watch. America is a great country; Bush and his minio
That's right! Gee, and they don't have a human tide of refugees fleeing that "oppressive" socialist nation of Sweden either! Put that in your pipe right wing shrills and smoke it.
Dr. Morpheus | Email | 11.28.03 - 4:28 pm | #
It's a horrible place. Ask Tiger Woods.
http://www.itv.com/news/1702456.html
http://www.rick.com/tiger-elin.htm
Their adjusted findings (for 199
Should be:
Their adjusted findings (for 1998 )
I'm sure this has made the rounds, but I like the "cheap labor Republicans" phrase. Very catchy and accurate.
http://www.conceptualguerilla.co....com/
blurbs.htm
What factors cause a money supply to decrease?
Copernicus - less money in circulation; more money "on ice." Diminishing returns on investment is one thing that will cause that, if I remember correctly from my days working for an investment banking firm.
But that's as far as I can go - no economist, me.
The con troll "anonymous" is an asshole.
And yes, there's nothing terribly witty or "intelligent" about this post.
I'm just stating the obvious.
Unemployment statistics are an art not a science. Since January 23, 2002 my company reduced my work week from five to three days a week (with a corresponding reduction in pay). Technically I'm 40% unemployed. But that reduction in my paycheck is not reflected in the statistics.
I've often wondered what would happen if all companies in the US reduced their employee compensation to a point just above the respective state unemployment benefit amounts (NYS max is $405/week). I believe most people would continue to work for their employers at the reduced rate, but there would be no change in the unemployment statictic.
That's a chilling scenario for workers and a wet-dream for employers.
... also, less money floating around causes prices to *drop*, yes? - maybe the deflation sky is falling...
I'm Anonymous!
Doesn't this point towards a tightening of credit, as well? Is this a reflection of the deficit?
Anonymous,
Did you ever wonder how 3 million people can lose their jobs and the unemployment rate be only 6%?
If you count the underemployed(part time or accountants manning cash registers) and those who have given up, our umeployment rate is over 10%.
I dont want to call Pres Bush a cowboy, because I respect cowboys. The best term for Pres Bush is "the worst president ever".
Well, if it helps any, I come from good old Soviet Canuckistan (with that horrible unemployment rate, but more on that in a minute). I just got a letter in the mail today from the Beneficent State informing me that I'm entitled to a maximum of 40 weeks' Employment Insurance benefits (after nearly 2 years employment), probably somewhere near the maximal rate of pay-out.
An aggregate rate for Canada is also misleading, because we have areas (particularly the East Coast, parts of the prairies, and the Far North) where unemployment -->100%, and areas where there are sometimes labour shortages. A more accurate way of looking at Canadian unemployment statistics (as, I suspect, it is with the US also) is regionally. You're going to get a very different number, unemployment-wise, if you're looking at rates for Ontario or Nunavut, or Toronto and Moose Jaw, for instance.
Thanks, Atrios, for making economics a little more comprehensible and somewhat less boring.
As to the
Arrrgh...
Anyway, as to the subject at hand, I can't opine, because I don't know what it means in terms of effect and overall large-scale impact. It sure sounds ominous, but then again, a lot of things do, but the risks are really negligible.
David E - Bush is most definitely not s cowboy, as you have pointed out. In fact, he is about as far from being a cowboy as one can get. None of the real cowboys I've met have been frat boys from Yale.
off topic, but this is a really nice post:
http://dneiwert.blogspot.com/
200...970848149574609
it isn't entirely clear what exactly money is
And yet Economics is supposed to be a science. Perhaps the professionals can clear that up for us.
That is true: Bush is a Dauphin.
Sure hope Krugman stops by, as an anonymous poster of course...
Thanx DZ, that was a good, albeit long read...
Snip:
"I'll believe conservatives are serious about civil, adult dialogue when they step back and give liberals some breathing room. When "civil" conservatives seriously confront the violent and vicious rhetoric coming from their own quarters; when they do away with suggesting that their political opponents are somehow disloyal Americans; and when they finally acknowledge that people's concerns about the legitimacy of the process by which Bush obtained office are not only well grounded but driven more by patriotic feeling than partisan rancor -- then, perhaps, they can expect to start seeing some civility in return"
[[Sure hope Krugman stops by, as an anonymous poster of course...]]
Oh, no -- what's far more important than anything is one's pseudonym.
It would be fascinating to see Krugman here and get bashed by morons.
http://www.halfpasthuman.com/HPHTOC.htm
http://www.halfpasthuman.com/
HPH...FH_COLLAPSE.htm
Future History - Collapse - 4.4 Million Jobs Lost in 2004
Exposure of rampant fraud in United States Mutual Fund Industry led to a confluence of events trapping the financial system in a collapse scenario.
With the implosion of the financial system, 4.4 million American jobs are shed in 2004, the first year of the global crisis.
http://www.halfpasthuman.com/HPH.../
HPHFH_FSBO.htm
Future History - FSBO Fizzles
Unlike auto's, you can't park your house on the street with a for sale sign.
With the explosion of the automobile business throughout the 1990's, fed by cheap capital, rising stock market, the 'wealth effect' and cheap consumer credit, automobile manufacturers flooded the USA with new cars, effectively killing first, the used car market, then the financing arm of the industry through give-aways which sucked out future demand, then the new car market.
Shortly thereafter, it was the housin
OK, we need to tag the identifiable Anonymous. The one with the home page.
Maybe it will see the need and get a handle on its own, but otherwise we must take action.
The random Anonymi are annoying (though I admit the "I'm Anonymous" post was goddamn funny.)
I propose home-paged Anonymous shall be known as BashAnonymous.
http://www.halfpasthuman.com/HPH.../
HPHFH_FSBO.htm
Shortly thereafter, it was the housing industry's turn.
G. "Er, you know, lived in...as in not brand new. See, here is the deal. The entire mortgage industry has moved to support the housing industry. Only it seems in the last few years that they have moved to really be supporting only the new house industry. I can sell any new house in this area to anyone, and I mean anyone, and with zero down, no credit needed. Walk into my office with a pulse and I can get a mortgage for you on a new place. But...."
http://www.halfpasthuman.com/HPH.../
HPHFH_FSBO.htm
G. "Yep, there are just no incentives for me to work to get someone a mortgage on your place. It is a snap to put buyers at any level into new places, virtually no paper work, lots of loan activity, ALL kinds of federal programs...but for your place? Well, not even the commission is worth the paperwork hell you must have gone through to get the new place....eh?"
http://www.halfpasthuman.com/HPH.../
HPHFH_FSBO.htm
G. "Well, you are wrong. See, the kids won't be buying the OLD starter houses any more. All these old, small places that you used to be able to dump on to the new generation of buyers just don't sell. Period. Usually not even for lot value as the cost to knock them down and dispose of the material is much more than just scraping off a new, virgin lot somewhere. So you see, I have had probably a half dozen families interested in your place, but none, and I mean none, will be able to sell their current houses. I can't even book the deal as a contingent sale as you might really think it was going to go through....and we're long time neighbors and friends. Couldn't do that to you. You might spend some money that just ain't gonna be coming."
EssJay - excellent suggestion. From now on, "bashanonymous" it is.
The money supply expands when people buy things on credit, and it shrinks when they pay off their resulting debt. The money supply also shrinks when people go bankrupt. Bankruptcies have been rising steadily since the Reagan era, correlated to reductions in health care coverage and increases in legalized gambling (both phenomena mean you can suddenly find yourself owing thousands of dollars of extra debt overnight).
For an expanding economy, a shrinking money supply is a bad thing, whether it is because gambling addicts are going bankrupt or prudent people are paying off their credit cards and their mortgages from their inheritances. As the baby boomer population ages, you will see an increasing effect of inheritance from the boomers' parents on the population. For example, health care expenditures will rise, and educational expenditures will drop. And there might even be a shortage of workers as boomers start retiring in the next couple of years.
That half past human stuff doesn't look all that strange now?
But,how is the shrinking money supply related to Soros wanting to remove Bush from office?
Is this the Liquidity Trap Krugman was writing about a while back?
[[The random Anonymi are annoying]]
dKos seemed to have solved the problem with this:
http://scoop.kuro5hin.org/
Surely the people of the Eschaton community can pony up the dough and technical expertise to put together a more robust commenting system.
One could even have a "free-for-all" zone that doesn't require registration, for people who wish to stay out of something like that.
In all the time people take to complain about the problem, the problem could have been solved 16 times over and then some.
{Irony alert -- Atrios just tried to ban me while I was writing this. Nice try, Atrios.}
Chris Vail - I find it fascinating that you raised the increase in gambling as part of the problem. I've been watching this phenomenon and I've been wondering just exactly what was behind it and the effect it would have on the economy. Thanks for your comment - that was really interesting.
Plan X will make this all irrevelant.
Bottom line: Do do we need to start stuffing twenties in our mattresses?
re: MBF and Plan X
Actually we prefer Plan 9.
sincerely,
Proof that Anonymous (the one with the homepage) doesn't have all the floors serviced by his mental elevator once more; what kind of person not only has the time to troll and troll and troll to this level, but is either genuinely spending the time to find himself different IP address to keep on doing it, or needs to at least pretend that he's doing so? Worse still, what kind of logic thinks we'll be impressed by the same old games children play, when they cover all bases to ensure they are always right; "hey mummy, I'll just scream and scream until I get a wolly. Either give me the wolly of a dKos like system, or let me twoll and twoll. Either way, I win. Waaaaaaaaaaaa!"
The sad thing is, he's not even unique. You see it on every board eventually. But every time the identical muppets are utterly powerless to ever affect anything that matters. Hey moran, you can't touch the main page of Atrios can you? Your l33t IP skills aren't good enough to stop any of us reading t
Mayor Quimby: Time for panic has come. We must move forward and turn to the town's all purpose contingency plan.
Skinner: Plan B?
Quimby: Yes ... B ... !!!
... reading the articles themselves. We come here, we keep ourselves informed... and then some of us come in here to point and laugh at the waste of genetic material that is you. And that is the extent of your influence. Yeah, keep on sucking it, you anal leakage... real impressive work you're doing here.
i prefer plain old shithead for george.
did you know that the term dauphin was taken from the flemish? just hit that in my 1903 encyc britanica in french history. shit. i am turning into Cliff Claivin.
Lizzard Man Greenspan is so desperate to flood the world with dollars that helecopter drops of cash in strategic locations are being considered.
Counterfitting is a good thing as far as I'm concerned.
Someday soon Al will really open the floodgates. Contrary to the popular conception the Fed has been absolutely stingy with it's own money creation machine, that is its open market operations, For months they have been expanding their balance sheet at a stingy 1.5% rate. Waaaayyy down from the 10% that held swaw for a long time
"We believe that tolerance of individual beliefs and respect for privacy should define our communities, communications, and governmental policies."
http://www.progressivemajority.o.../
principles.asp
Keep banning and striking comments, Atrios. Do what you decry. Censor, censor, censor! Shut out other opinions, no matter how marginally small the difference!
You go, girl!
Unemployment Rates in Enlightened European Countries ...
Actually, U.S. unemployment may in fact exceed that of Western European countries. We count people who have been unemployed, but seeking work, for more than two years as being permanently out of the labor pool. We also count people who are working part time, but want to work full-time, as working permanently employed
U.S. labor statistics are measured in such a way that the unemployment figures reflect people who are receiving unemployment checks. If you have exceeded your benefits period, but are still unemployed, you are not counted.
Etc.
as working permanently employed
Er, these people are not counted among the unemployed. Whether or not they are actually able to support themselves on their partial employment.
There seem to be many parallels between our economy and the economic system devised by the Scottish charlatan John Law in the early eighteenth century. Law convinced the King of France to abolish "specie" as the basis for money and issue paper money on the basis of the value of land. This system finally melted down with the exposure of fraud especially with respect to supposed investments in French North America (the Mississippi bubble).
Monetarists like Milton Friedman usually point to Law's system as an example of the follies of paper mercantilism (like the "assignat" period after the French revolution and our own greenback period) but the success of the American economy since Nixon "closed the gold window" in 1971 has so far vindicated our contemporary experiment in contrast to the earlier failures. One wonders if our current economy has finally reached the limits of "paper mercantilism" with the realization that the Emperor actually has no clothes.
I've heard the Bush admin has messed with the numbers. Is that true?
I wonder how many of the European jobs are in the fast-food business.
Economy is theory. Your guess is as good as theirs. The difference being perception. Some percieve people like Greenspan to be incredibly complex and intelligent. Actually, hes a con man and youve been conned. Ever read his essays? Mumbo Jumbo to confuse and make it look like hes some kind of genuis. Hes the greatest con man alive.
Given the apparent shrinkage of
M(n), and the still relatively high P/E ratio in the stock market, i'm concerned about stagflation (dating myself) or even deflation. I'm not entirely sure of the mechanisms, but I think this is a separate fear from Krugman's "liquidity trap".
I'm still here. Why don't you ban every IP address in the world, Atrios? That's where you're going with this.
"Anonymous, how can anyone actually bash someone who is signing comments as "anonymous?" How can anyone bash an unknown?"
I think Rummy is useful here:
"There are known unknowns, unknown knowns, known knowns, and unknown unknowns."
See? It all makes sense. You can invade Iraq with this logic.
If the "fiscally responsible" Republicans in Congress continue to hammer the national credit card for 400-600 billion a year, the inevitable outcome is rising interest rates. That is exactly what happened with Red-Ink Ronnie. Despite the much bally-hooed "boom" of the Reagan admin., real interest rates reached historic highs, due to the massive federal deficits. Keep interest rates high and it is exceedingly difficult to sustain any kind of economic growth. This is why massive, deficit exploding tax cuts for the wealthy are self-defeating. BY DEFINITION, only the top few percent of the income distribution pay the top marginal tax rates. EVERYBODY borrows money. When Clinton restored fiscal responsibility, interest rates dropped and the economy took off.
Selah.
Oh, shit. Here I am now. Ban this one, too, Atrios.
Ban Ban Ban!!
"I'm still here. Why don't you ban every IP address in the world, Atrios? That's where you're going with this."
Who knew? It seems we have our own 'dead-enders' on Eschaton.
Does this mean Atrios can say 'bring 'em on!' now?
We won't know the truth until it's all over, but a liquidity trap sounds like the best explanation to me (Krugman at the NYT has been hinting at this as well).
In a liq-trap, increasing the money supply and lowering interests rates doesn't spur the economy. Low buisness borrowing isn't due to interest rates but some other factor (like low future expectations). I think we saw some of that over the last year.
My sense is that falling money supply is also due to low expectations- people and businesses aren't borrowing because they don't think the economy will improve enough to make the loan worthwhile.
At the same time, the converse is also true, falling money supply and upward pressure on interest rates won't further slow the economy since rates weren't the limiting factor in the first place.
If this is right, falling money supplies are not a problem per se, they are just a symptom of a problem, which is low expectations.
A problem may occur if interest rates remai
(continued)
A problem may occur if interest rates remain stable (which they haven't) or if they raise enough to constrict the economy and Greenspan doesn't have enough room to push them down any harder. If so, constricting money supply will create either deflationary pressures or a stagnating economy or both. But that is still a pretty long way from here, and most expect a recovery before we reach that point.
And you wondered why economists are no fun at parites.
(Im a microeconomist by training, so my expertise lies elsewhere, but this is the best explanation I've heard so far).
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
[[Does this mean Atrios can say 'bring 'em on!' now?]]
Yes, and he'll meet with the same kind of "success" -- ie, it will probably just get worse.
Can't blame a combination of Haloscan's design and the fact that Atrios is a public blog. If he doesn't want just any yahoo to post, then he's going to have to do something to control access.
Otherwise, he can sit and ban and post 'til the end of time. It won't stop what he wants to stop -- it will probably make it worse.
I'm really unclear what trips him off, as I was posting some pretty useful info today about employment in OECD countries and digging into the Shrubman quite a bit.
I suspect that there's something more to Tena and Atrios, but that's just a guess. She's got quite the temper and vows to "stop" people like me, whatever that means.
Holy Censorship and Control Freakout -- it's another IP address, Atrios! Greetings from India!
Buon giorno, Atrioso! Come siete?
Basta!!
Are you Anne Coulter? That's the only plausible explanation for you.
¿Cómo es el amante de su perro, Atrios? ¿Ella ha estado al manzanar últimamente? Sóplela los besos mierda-que huelen para mí, por favor. Y algunos para usted, también, así como su esposa gorda, fea.
semi o-t grab bag:
evil conspiracy, except that it's true and it's in the public record: I'll get the quotes in a minute but consider the neocon desire to privatize everything. How do you convince an America far more leftist than Norquist will admit that it could possibly be in a million years beneficial to anyone to kill Social Security? answer: you can't. So you do exactly the doomsday plan Bush currently implements. You spend like Reagan missing Bonzo. You spend all you can and more, while cutting off the sources of that money (tax cuts), and soon you're spending not taxpayer dollars but i.o.u.'s and money to be worried about later. You have to spend-you have terrorism to fund, and no one is allowed to question our Terrorist War. Things go bankrupt and now private "multinational" (meaning they cannot fathom love of US. Why do multinationals hate America? So they can make more money, the only reason they've ever needed for anything).
Like I said few posts back, the rabi
Like I said few posts back, the rabidly pro-globalization (they recently did an apologetics piece in which they were forced to concede globalization was mostly a failure but tried to be unrepentant) Economist of London, which no one with a brain in their head would call Bush-hating (although they did apologize for saying Bush had won the election after Palast proved he had not), which no one with a grasp pf globalization would call "leftist" (excepting that in modern English parlance, "liberal" is what we call "neoliberal" or proglobo) anyway the Economist said they were "scared by Bush's lack of anything that could be called an economic policy". Or that "Bush's lack of a grasp on economic policy was frightening," more likely. It was in the first Economist I read outside of Iraq, on the plane out of Kuwait with other semi-old magazines, and it had a feature about North Korea and an illustration showing Asscroft steamrolling over civil rights in Lexington, and Lexington's u
Whoever relies on the Tao in governing men
doesn't try to force issues
or defeat enemies by force of arms.
For every force there is a counterforce.
Violence, even well intentioned,
always rebounds upon oneself.
The Master does his job
and then stops.
He understands that the universe
is forever out of control,
and that trying to dominate events
goes against the current of the Tao.
Because he believes in himself,
he doesn't try to convince others.
Because he is content with himself,
he doesn't need others' approval.
Because he accepts himself,
the whole world accepts him.
Lexington's usually ravingly conservative.
It should be somewhere in April or May of 2003.
But my less crazy point (jesus, they'll look back and wonder how any thinking person could stand Bush) is that there's this good leftist economic news publication if you don't "get" econospeak, called Dollars and Sense. See "homepage" for more
Bottom line: Do do we need to start stuffing twenties in our mattresses?
Why? They'll be worthless anyway. Better to convert them to precious metals. Of course, it's hard to sleep on a couple thousand dollars worth of gold bullion.
Anonymous,
Did you not get praised enough as a child or something? Daddy not come to your baseball games?
Because you really, really, really seem to need some self-image reinforcement.
1. You remain anonymous to annoy people, because that gives you a charge.
2. You intentionally annoy people, because that gives you a charge.
3. You will never admit that you are wrong. (Narcissism, a trait you share with other self-absorbed types like GWB).
I think you need therapy, son. Or a good beating. Or both.
Or maybe you just need to grow the fuck up.
Well, geez, anonymous. Now you really are being pretty weird. If you don't like it here, don't post here. If you want to change things here, you aren't going about it in a very constructive fashion. If you're playing a game, well, whatever... it's kinda dull.
Hmmm. Nice story.
I have lived in important places, times
When great events were decided, who owned
That half a rood of rock, a no-man's land
Surrounded by our pitchfork-armed claims.
I heard the Duffys shouting "damn your soul"
As old McCabe stripped to the waist, seen
Step the plot defying blue-cast steel:
"Here is the march along these iron stones"
That was the year of the Munich bother. Which
Was more important? I inclined
To lose my faith in Ballyrush and Gortin
Till Homer's ghost came whispering to my mind
He said: I made the Iliad from such
A local row. Gods make their own importance.
You're still being a dick, though.
If what you say is true, which I'll allow I suppose that it is, you're only the second person Atrios has ever tried to ban. As far as I know.
But whatever about Atrios. What about you? You're creating your own importance. Why? It's just the comments section of a blog, for chrissakes.
The echo of someone who sounds like a dick also sounds like a dick. what the hell else could it sound like?
Dueling poems...
No, no, no, I know I was not important as I moved
Through that colourful country, I was but a single
Item in the picture, the namer and not the beloved.
O tedious man with whom no gods conmingle.
Beauty, who has described beauty? Once upon a time
I had a myth that was a lie but it served:
Trees walking upon the crests of hills and my rhyme
Cavorting on mile-high stilts and the unnerved
Crowds looking up with terror in their rational faces.
O dance with kitty Stobling I outrageously
Cried out-of-sense to them, while their timorous paces
Stumbled behind Jove's page boy paging me.
I had a very pleasant journey, thank you sincerely
For giving me my madness back, or nearly.
--Patrick Kavanagh
Buon giorno, Atrioso! Come siete?
Basta!!
Anonimo | Homepage | 11.28.03 - 10:43 pm | #
Signore Anonimo, il Suo italiano e' barbaro. La prego di limitare i Suoi vaneggiamenti pazzi a inglese. La nostra lingua e' troppa bella per permitarLa a sporcarla. Grazie mille.
Hey, how bad could it have been, renato? I say "Good Day" and "How are you?" -- whatsa da problema?
Anonymous | Homepage | 11.29.03 - 1:34 am | #
il problema e' che Lei ha usato il plurale invece di singolare per indirizzare qualcuno. Come sempre, Lei parla dal culo. Scemo.
Do you think the dicks listen to their echo? Perhaps if they did they would stop being dicks.
Well, I dunno, Mr. Bones. How's that strategy working out for you so far? What about your echo?
Atrios isn't Stalin, exactly. I still don't see why you're going to the mattresses over here.
Whoopdedoo, renato.
The comment was for Atrios -- just rubbing it in. No need for you to understand the details.
[[Well, I dunno, Mr. Bones. How's that strategy working out for you so far?]]
Didja catch the "Maybe" parable upthread?
[[Atrios isn't Stalin, exactly. I still don't see why you're going to the mattresses over here.]]
I didn't say he was Stalin, I said he was playing Stalin, meaning he has a strong-arm, totalitarian streak in him, and is likely motivated by his lack of empowerment vis-a-vis Shrubster, so he takes it out in the feeble little ways that he can, like banning people who don't suck up to him or cower at his "all-powerful" ability to ban by IP and delete comments. Again, I find it disturbing and telling that someone who is essentially motivated by fighting against the Bush Admin would resort to the kinds of tactics they use that make Atrios and like-minded people go nuts.
As I said, things were going just fine today until Atrios, without provocation, just started banning away today. He's amplifying a problem that doesn't need to exist.
Now where h
[cont'd]
Now where have I seen something analogous to that... Hmm...
just pointing out how once again you don't know your ass from a hole in the ground. Not, of course, that you care.
if the comment was meant only for Atrios you could have just mailed it to him.
but i guess you just had to prove you can be an ass in more than one language. News flash: you're a legend in your own mind.
Stronzo.
[[if the comment was meant only for Atrios you could have just mailed it to him.]]
More formaggio for your vino?
Remind me, renato -- where did I kick your ass in a debate? Because you sure have a hard-on for me that just won't go away.
Now where have I seen something analogous to that
Ever hosted a party and had to handle a persistently obnoxious boor?
Give us all a break.
I didn't say he was Stalin, I said he was playing Stalin, meaning he has a strong-arm, totalitarian streak in him
Hmm. No, not really, in my experience. As I mentioned earlier, I can only really remember Atrios ever banning one person ever before, and that was after repeated provocations. This is probably one of the least moderated forums going. My guess is that you just piss him off on a personal level. But that's just a guess. I don't really consider this censorship, by the way. If Atrios were running a bar and you were being loud and annoying, he'd have every right to chuck you.
I enjoyed your parable.
Got any more poems?
Quando la pera è matura, casca da sè.
[[Ever hosted a party and had to handle a persistently obnoxious boor?
Give us all a break.]]
Use the other blog, please. This is a place for serious discourse, not petty, personal sniping.
[[Hmm. No, not really, in my experience.]]
Thanks for that, God. You are all-knowing and all-seeing. I wasn't asking what your experience was, I was telling you what I observed. You think banning whole ranges of IP addresses is a reasonable thing to do? He cut off some of his own regulars, almost certainly. He needs to chill.
[[My guess is that you just piss him off on a personal level.]]
Right, I tell him things that make him very uncomfortable, about certain issues and about himself. And he knows I'm right, so it pisses him off. I've seen it before -- very typical behavior.
[[If Atrios were running a bar and you were being loud and annoying, he'd have every right to chuck you.]]
Sure. But what separates him from right-wing asswipes, then, unless he has some guiding principle that he applies equally to people? Equal justice is a core principle of being a Progressive, and so is relative tolerance for diversity of opinion. I act unruly at times, yes, but so
if we ignore the trolls they go away
Now perhaps I missed the memo where Atrios denied being a substitute gym teacher, but if he didn't, you sure seem to know a lot about economics for a substitute gym teacher.
If so, I'm impressed...
Or maybe...Atrios = PAUL KRUGMAN! MUHAHAHAHA!
Thanks for that, God. You are all-knowing and all-seeing. I wasn't asking what your experience was
Whoa there, bub. Thought for a minute there you were interested in, like, dialogue. I mean, that seems to be your self-declared ethos and all. You know, in dialogue, like, you take other people's experiences into account? You want me to respect your observations, and want me to shut up about mine. Right....
It still isn't censorship. And it's still Atrios's place. If he wants to be a dick, as you see it, it's his place, his rules. I mean, please. There are after all a lot of blogs. Why not go over to, say, Billmon's? I'm sure he'd love to have you.
No, that's new to me. Try this, though:
The novel, in the hands of an unscrupulous writer, could be despotic. In reply to an inquiry, it was explained that a satisfactory novel should be a self-evident sham to which the reader could regulate at will the degree of his credulity. It was undemocratic to compel characters to be uniformly good or bad or poor or rich. Each should be allowed a private life, self-determination, and a decent standard of living. This would make for self-respect, contentment, and better service.... The modern novel should be largely a work of reference. Most authors spend their time saying what has been said before--usually said much better. A wealth of references to existing works would acquaint the reader instantaneously with the nature of each character, would obviate tiresome explanations, and would effectively preclude mountebanks, upstarts, thumbleriggers, and persons of inferior educaion from an understanding of contemporary literature. --Flann O'Bri
Well, Flann O Brien...
No. This is not about IP ranges. It's about M2 v M3. Will there be an obvious point that will be defined as failure at the time or will it only be recognised in hindsight?
Well, it's lower-case "c" censorship, then. It is, at any rate, very unusual for Atrios to try to ban anyone. I apologize for my little joke about Billmon (billmon.org), who runs a truly excellent leftist blog (Whiskey Bar) but who pulls the trigger on banning quite quickly. At any rate, Atrios isn't particularly impeding your freedom of speech: there are a lot of places for you to speak your mind online. Anyhoo, posting rules isn't a big thing around here. This is a very anarchic forum, which is why I like it--better than Kos, really.
You don't need to fight this war. Post with a nick under a new ISP, and in two days this is all forgotten. This is not Munich...
Check out Bill Moyers on DemocracyNow! today.
Very good speech on the media.
"Journalist Bill Moyers recently gave the keynote address before 2,000 people at the first ever National Conference on Media Reform. He warned, "What we’re talking about is nothing less than rescuing a democracy that is so polarized it is in danger of being paralyzed and pulverized. Alarming words, I know. But the realities we face should trigger alarms. Free and responsible government by popular consent just can't exist without an informed public."
The generals have a saying:
"Rather than make the first move
it is better to wait and see.
Rather than advance an inch
it is better to retreat a yard."
This is called
going forward without advancing,
pushing back without using weapons.
There is no greater misfortune
than underestimating your enemy.
Underestimating your enemy
means thinking that he is evil.
Thus you destroy your three treasures
and become an enemy yourself.
When two great forces oppose each other,
the victory will go
to the one that knows how to yield.
Right! Exactly! That Lao Tzu shit, that's what I'm sayin'!
said, things were going just fine today until Atrios, without provocation, just started banning away today.
We are guests in Atrios comment room. If the host would like you to leave, its not up to you to judge why, your welcome has been revoked.
By definition, you are no longer a welcome guest, and therefore no longer acting consensually by remaining.
A warm body beckons me up the stairs.
Sigh.
And I only have the cold dead ones in the lower cellar...
Whoops. Said too much.
But do you know how to apply it? Do you think I'm applying it? Or do you think the opposite is occurring?
The answer is, of course... 42.
I love it when the brownshirts complain about being ratted out...
Can we get back to economics?
I'm curious as to what the impact on the economy will be when overtime pay goes away in January. If I own a business, it's cheaper for me to have existing employees work OT for free than to hire a new person.
It seems like another wedge in the rich vs poor battle. The Jan unemployment figures will be intersting.
I ban people who are disruptive.
Rules are for assholes who like to be assholes while still following the rules.
This is my home and I say who is and isn't welcome. That's the only rule.
Bias! Class warfare! It's not going to happen. Lower wages and taxes help us all by creating incentives to invest or something.
Yeah, Bush rules, liberals are fools!
I don't understand. I just don't know where to begin, all this talk about money supply and such. I don't think I'm a stupid person, all in all. I just don't understand it.
So....since I just sold my house for twice what I paid for it in 1992, and we're moving to Vermont next week (from California), what does all this mean for me?
What does it mean, Dancing Cavalier?
In the words of Tom Petty, you got lucky.
Well said, johnx. On topic: this won't be the first time in US history that the US economy has come under threat from a lack of money supply (the Populist era comes to mind). I wonder how the response of the government will compare to that of its predecessors...
Still discussing the money supply? If it is decreasing (most newspapers or economic magazines like "The Economist" list it as M1 or M2) and it continues to decrease the fed's only real solution is to print more money. Printing more money can easily be inflationary-adding to a finite level decreases the value of a dollar out there in circulation. Money supply consists of deposits, cash, bonds, cash held by foreign governments and savings accounts. Why it increases or decreases can be theory-ized to infinity. I'm not sure economists even know why. But if anyone remembers the 70's they can get an idea of what it's like to have inflation plus high unemployment and anemic growth at the same time. I've wondered if this administration would be able to produce the right dynamics to have what was then called stagflation and it might seem that-yes, they can.
If ya cant beat em with facts just turn into a 13 yr old. LOL
Gad these rwers are pathetic.
To MRB:
Ms is already at a high level,printing money would not be a good idea.(long term + Ms supported by Japan to keep Ms down because it is pegged)
1970 = 30 years ago, now totally different financial constellation
>Anonymous: why don't you post the regular quality-of-life reports comparing the US to the rest of the western world? The Enlightened Europeans in general have a much better average quality-of-life, based on numerous metrics, than the US.
Not to mention that the US unemployment rate was rigged under Reagan so that it didn't actually count all those who were jobless -- it only counts those who are receiving unemployment compensation. Once you go off the rolls, you're no longer 'jobless'.
The US' actual unemployment rate is closer to 10%. Its underemployment rate is around 20%. Its poverty rate -- as well as the gap between rich and poor -- is the highest of any 'first world' nation.
>I love it when the brownshirts complain about being ratted out...
Notice that there's lots more of them recently? And that they're using the same six or seven IP addresses, Atrios?
I wonder how many of those could be traced straight back to the RNC, or one of their front groups.
Anonytrolling seems to be the latest diversion tactic-and they showed up on too many blogs timed too close tegether to be spontaneous. No doubt there's something to what Phoenix Woman suggests.
The insidious new technique seems to be to bash w just enough to be able to claim not to be a troll, but still acomplish the task of confusing the issues and diversion.
Which is, of course, the assignment.
What makes them so spottable is the continued adherence to standard wingnut debating techniques. They can hide their names, but not their spots...
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