I'MMA LET YOU FINISH
Wow, that's pretty close to my own prediction - Kerry by 2 in the popular, 280+ in the electoral...
Frist!
Also, no PA for Kerry?
But the big question is: who do you like in the BC Classic???
Florida goes Kerry, even with Jeb's suppression efforts.
Urk-- why so pessimistic?
I volunteered for the Kerry campaign this morning in NH. Really good vibe. Lots of thumbs up as I stood by the side of the road with a KE sign. Only 2 thumbs down. Lots of earnest people just wanting to help. Get out there and help the campaign!!!
And in the Senate?
Hear, hear. I told Thersites last night that I'm going out today to buy a seriously good bottle of champagne for Tuesday. Moet & Chandon, peut etre.
Excelsior!
Gore won pa.
I agree, Wolf-Man. Florida goes blue this time.
And Kerry +5 with a serge at the end. Pollsters curl up in little balls and aren't heard from for a week....
I think its going to be Bush +1 in popular vote with Bush losing Ohio and New Hampshire but getting Wisconsin and Iowa and New Mexico ...I think thats 276.
I just hope it ends...
Opps, that should have read "surpression." Stress is gettin' to me...
Well, if Kerry gets a "serge" in the end, he's really got it sewn up!
What about the Senate?
Y'all should read this via Wolcott - GREAT peptalk! (And fairly on topic!)
giordano
Kerry will win FL and CO also. Over 70% turnout in swing states.
I think it's a good sign when people are no longer ashamed or afraid to admit they're Democrats, and they bring out their signs, buttons, and bumper stickers. It's a new day.
A lot of hard-hitting 527 ads today in Memphis.
From Jacksonville.com ( the online version of the Florida-Times Union), 2:30pm update 10/30/04:
"So far, more than 1.8 million of the 10.3 million Floridians registered to vote have cast ballots, either early or absentee, and the number was expected to rise to 2 million by the time polls open Tuesday."
Felt good to drive by my early voting precinct ( the library) and see so much activity. Lots of folks holding Kerry-Edwards signs. Had to roll down the window, wave, and yell, "Go, Kerry!" Yes, felt good, real good!
yeah, but when will we know kerry has +3 of the pop vote and 284 EVs? on nov. 3rd? or late december?
I agree with those who say you're a pessimist. You're ignoring the early vote and the great GOTV efforts, ignoring the millions of new registrants, including young people, ignoring the fact that when unlikely voters show up it's always against the incumbent party.
Oh ye of little faith....GOTV.
MyDD's map has Kerry down 14 in electoral votes.
When Kerry wins...
What in god's name will the media say?
I suspect they'll blame the American
people.
In Ohio, I predict CNN will declare "a shocker" for Kerry at 8PM EST....
Atrios is such a pessimist!
Kerry 52%, Bush 45%
Kerry 340 EV.
and the right wingers will blame the allegedly leftist media
kerry wins, but who takes the presidency?
this is the only question that counts anymore.
Hilarious:
http://www.liegirls.com/
Pick a video format when you get there.
NYMary!
Hi! My husband and I just returned from the grocery store, me with a bottle of spumanti, my husband with (2) bottles of red wine. And we rarely drink! We are ready for Nov. 2nd! 
I personally think it'll be 311-227 for Kerry. He will sweep all three of the big ones (OH, FL, PA) and retain the Gore states. Voter turn-out is going to be huge!
Look, in a rash moment I said 53% or more for Kerry, and I'm sticking with it. I think people are as sick and tired just like they were in 1980.
OK, I pushed the button and it didn't go, I hope.
James Carville says only losers count on new voters and turnout.
I generally agree Atrios, but i'm thinking FL, NV will swing our way as well.
Do you mean he'll win the popular vote by 3% or 3 votes? 
All the Gore states, huh? That's very optimistic. I think Bush will take Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico. Kerry will pick up NH, Ohio and Fl. And just like last time it is Florida florida Florida/
More bad news for the brownshirts:
Court ends Ohio GOP's challenge of voter rolls
By Tim Jones Tribune national correspondent
A federal appeals court panel on Friday prevented Ohio Republicans from contesting tens of thousands of voter registrations prior to Tuesday's election.
The decision by the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Cincinnati is a blow to the Republican Party, which wanted county election boards to hold hearings on its claims that some of the registrations are fraudulent. The appellate court upheld a decision issued earlier in the week by a federal judge that blocked the pre-Election Day hearings.
Ohio Atty. Gen. Jim Petro and the state Republican Party said they do not plan to appeal the ruling...
The brownshirts will still be at the polling places, standing in the doorways with ax handles, however...
OT: but could somebody help me out?
I read this morning on some blog that Kerry hadn't received the Bin Laden tape, not had the tape been confirmed to him, before making statements on Milwaukee television.
I'd like to point out this bit of information to Bobo, but I can't remember where I saw it and can't reference it. If anyone knows what I'm talking about I'd be more than grateful if you pointed me to the blog in question.
Thanks!
.
Big turnout. Kerry 52% to 46% over 300 for Kerry in EC.
If Bush gets the EC with the popular vote as above, I will be front and center as one of the 10 million who assemble in DC to protest inauguration.
I'm not sure anyone in 2000 came closer than I did to picking the popular vote to the tenth of a percent (off by a combined 0.4 on Gore-Bush-Nader). My picks for Tuesday are here. I made the prediction about 10 days ago, and I haven't seen anything to warrant a change; in fact, my confidence in the pick has been bolstered lately (except for an hour or two of brief concern yesterday over the OBL tape).
Bush isn't taking New Mexico, the GOTV in NM is awesome! The only reason it was so close last time was Nader. Oh, and then there's the Gov. Richardson factor...
OT -- my 10 year old daughter and I were holding signs at a busy intersection in Pittsburgh today (mine: Osama bin Forgotten; hers: More Trees Less Bush). One person yelled "Fuck you!" Three gave us the fingers. Nice family values
With Wolf-Man and Sadie, I'll add FL, which I guess was counted as a Shrub state, but I'd call it a Scalia state.
Oh, and also add Arkansas - not to ever underestimate the Big Dog.
-
I predict bush with 78% Kerry with 18% and Nader with 4%. I also predict that the economy will produce over 800,000 jobs before Inauguration and my leather Prada gimp suit will arrive before Christmas!
That's my take too. Florida is possible, but only if Jeb screws up on a cheat.
George W. Bush - 251 electoral votes, 48% popular vote.
Bush wins Florida, Missouri, Iowa, Arizona and Nevada.
John Kerry - 296 electoral votes, 51% popular vote.
Kerry wins Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Colorado.
Nader / Badnarak, et. al - 0 electoral votes, 1% popular vote.
George H. W. Bush - 1 electoral vote, 0% popular vote. (South Charleston, WV, mayor Richie Robb has stated he will be a "faithless elector" and not vote for G. W. Bush.)
Senate: 50D - 49R - 1I if Daschle hangs on. 49D - 50R - 1I if Daschle loses.
And if Daschle wins, someone needs to tell him he's gotta give up the leader position. We need a real leader, not that schmuck.
I am afraid to make predictions, for fear of jinxing it, but banging my knucles raw, here it is:
Kerry will win the popular vote by less than 1%, just like AL gore, but in this case, the state demographics will favor Kerry because of W's lopsided advantage in the dark red states.
Consequently, Kerry will win the electoral college 279-259, taking Ohio , keeping the whole upper Midwest (including Iowa), and picking off New Hampshire.Of the Gore states, he will lose only New Mexico, which costs him a net 1 electoral vote, but Ohio more than makes up for that. Florida will once again end up inside the zone of litigation, as will Iowa, but Kerry will take Ohio by a good 3% margin, eliminating the possibility of successful litigation there, and thus making it a moot point. Of the two contestable states iow and Florida, I'm guessing that Jeb Bush will manage to put Florida in the initially-for-Bush column, and Vilsack wil conversely get Iowa in the initially-for-Kerry column, and that is where they will stay, because as I said, the outcome in those states will be moot. The Chimperor concedes the election by midnight, pacific time, or else pushes the red button and declares martial law.
The only potential fly in this ointment is Wisconsin, which may also end up in the zone of litigation, but somehow I think it won't.
Definitely a nail-biter and not a landslide, but the bubbly shoudl definitely be kept cold.
Atrios, have you read the post over on Steve Gilliard's blog about the Bush "pledge" that they're making people at campaign appearances recite? I can't believe these fuckers still have the capacity to shock me with their blatant fascism, but it keeps happening.
I think Bush will take Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico.
I disagree with all three of these - but particularly Minnesota. I think we (KE) are going to "ventura" the world! Huge turnout, young vote - it's exactly what put Jesse Ventura into the guv's office. (Not that I'm particularly proud of that!)
Brown shirt? voter harrassment? That's why it's such a great idea to have everyone hang out near their polling place with a digital camera, video or still. Just document and document. In case it's needed.
My prediction is that Kerry picks up Ohio and New Hamshire, wins all the Gore states except New Mexico, Iowa and Florida (I'm being cautious on Florida and I'm still very afraid regarding Wisconsin). That makes it:
Kerry: 272
Bush: 266
My prediction on Florida should be taken with the tiniest grain of salt though. Kerry is just sooooo close in Florida, it's not even funny:
All Florida polls
It's also close in Ohio, but I think Kerry will win it:
All Ohio polls
I don't know how this will play, but waits at the polls for early voting in Florida are 40 minutes or more. I think the casual voters will turn away from the polls if it's like that on Nov. 2nd. Many try to vote on the way to and from work or over lunch hour. I have no idea who that favors.
dunno why the link in my earlier comment didn't work (it did when I right-clicked), so try this.
I thought Kerry was going to win until this new bin laden thing came out .. it just screws up everything, it's either going to be good for bush or bad for bush, this one event could sway all the undecideds..
But lets say it has no impact, then Kerry wins by a large margin.. I think this mostly because the polls kinda suck at estimations.. If you look at all the 2000 polls Gore was down by 20 points in some of them (gallop)and he ended up winning. So if this is any indication as to how accurate the polls are then Kerry will win by at least 10 points..
Nobody wants to say this...it would be admitting that they listen to terrorists.
But it's interesting how bin Laden confirms that timing was critical. They figured they had at most a 20 minute window before America would respond, presumably with fighters and interceptors. But bin Laden says that never in his wildest dreams had he thought he would have the benefit of a dumfuk president who would rather read to children than react to America being attacked.
What if we had had a president who reacted to the first airplane, realizing that it couldn't have been "some really bad pilot", and had ordered a freeze on airspace and immediate launch of fighter jets?
Or, if that was too much to expect, what if he had issued a shoot-down order instead of reading My Pet Goat -- could he have saved the Pentagon?
Shame on you, Mr. Bush, and on everybody who has defended you.
Ouch! I'm wrong about being Frist, I'm wrong about who took PA in 2000. I'm the wrong poster on the wrong blog at the wrong time.
Bush was ahead in all the polls three days before the last election, and Kerry went on to win the popular vote. Also considering that the polls do not take into account newly registered voters, people with cell phones, and those with caller ID (who don't answer unfamiliar phone numbers), and you have a race that is wide open. In other words, ignore that Newsweek poll.
Tucker "the Dick" Carlson and I have it Bush 78% Kerry 22%.
Tucker thinks that W will give me a pardon for the Plaime incident. I got him to promise to press the issue with W by promising to take him to Oz for a brain.
Next time I'll vote from Allenwood if I have to!
Everyboyd keeps saying to GOTV. Well I have a question.
I live in the middle of Illinois, about equidistant from St. Louis, Chicago, and Indianapolis. I am willing to travel to any of those places. Where should I go? What should I do?
Went to the Kerry site, and they have a link for those who wish to travel to swing states, but Missouri isn't one of them, which surprised me.
Or should I just stay in IL and vote?
Oh, the hell with it (damn blogger link won't work on a direct click)...I picked Kerry 50.2, Bush 48.3, Nader 0.9, Others 0.6.
Kerry 311-227 in the EC, picking up NH, OH and FL from Bush and defending all the Gore states.
I almost agree with Atrios.
I think the Popular will fall 52-48 Kerry. There are a lot of deep blue staters motivated to vote, even though Kerry will win their state huge. I am thinking particularly in CA and NY. There will be half a day of hand wriging by the pollsters and then the VRWC starts ripping Kerry, before he even takes office. You heard it here first, there will be a Kerry Administration "scandal" before inaguration day.
Electoral vote worst case scenario is 279-259 Kerry. Bush takes NM and FL Gore states. Kerry has OH and NH. Kerry could pick up NM, FL and at least some CO to move up to 315.
And I know that FL was not a Gore state officially. But we all know it was.
Kerry will win the popular vote handily. I see him coming out ahead by a minimum of a million.
I just can't take the time to slog through the electoral vote, but I suspect it will likewise be a clear repudiation of Bush. I wouldn't be surprised if Kerry clears 300. My number includes a Bush loss in Florida, whether or not Jeb steals yet another election down there.
Remember: the Republicans not only stole 2000, they almost certainly had to steal the midterms in 2002. They're running on fumes.
kerry gets ohio, michigan, pa, and florida
also wisconsin, MN, and NM
perhaps, he gets Iowa, arkansas, and nevada
maybe dems take back senate--of that is possible according to the math
I honestly think Kerry wins Florida based upon everything I see. The polls are almost deadlocked, and the voters the polls don't reach break Kerry 2-1.
my prediction:
all Gore states, plus NH, FL, OH and in a shocker, CO and AR.
Tucker "the Dick" Carlson and I have it Bush 78% Kerry 22%.
Bob Novak
Actually, Douchebag of Liberty, Tucker is predicting a Kerry win in tomorrow's WaPo.
I haven't noticed much discussion around the blogosphere about how much Democratic candidates for various offices might benefit from a huge anti-Bush turnout. Seems to me that if we get the sort of massive voter participation that is expected, then a lot of the close races should fall our way....
McAuliffe and the Clintons will not let Kerry win.
Meanwhile, merry fucking Christmas from Uncle Sam:
The Army has extended by two months the Iraq tours of about 6,500 soldiers, citing a need for experienced troops through the Iraqi elections scheduled for late January.
No official statement was released, but the Pentagon's public affairs office posted an article on its Web site Saturday that said 3,500 soldiers of the 2nd Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division, and 3,000 from the 1st Infantry Division headquarters will remain in Iraq at least two months longer than planned.
The Army had scheduled those units for 10-month deployments, rather than the usual 12-month tours, to stagger the rotation of forces in and out of Iraq this winter to avoid overburdening transportation systems. Instead they will remain to provide security through the elections.
There will be half a day of hand wriging by the pollsters and then the VRWC starts ripping Kerry, before he even takes office.
No. Regardless how it goes, the left will stay focused. A phoney scandal will be met once again with a full court press by the left, a la Sinclair. This ain't 1992.
The latest Zogby poll has Kerry up by one percent, while Newsweek has Bush up by 6. In other words, fuck the polls!
Actually, Bob Novak, Tucker Carlson calls it Kerry by 3.5%, 278 EV.
Yeah, I'm surprised, too.
As a life long Packer fan I welcome you and D.C. can run but they can't defend against Favre
Gopack is responsible for this pander
I read this morning that Hispanics are breaking for Kerry. If true, this is good news for Kerry in NM, FL, CO and even AZ.
My prediction:
Kerry 52%
Bush 46%
EV - Kerry 315 +/-5
>If anyone knows what I'm talking about I'd be more than grateful if you pointed me to the blog in question.
Jen, don't know which blog it might have been but there's a reference to this in Salon's story this morning. (Sorry; don't know how to link -- try the homepage.) It's premium but you can read it for free if you watch a Daily Show ad first.
Kerry 300+ EVs and 4+% over Bush in the PV. (best case)
Bush 269 EV and -2% in the PV. (worst case)
Solid blue states need to take GOTV seriously because of the importance of the popular vote.
GOTV NY CA MA DC IL ETC
You could be decisive in the PV outcome.
Actually, Bush being ahead in the polls could help scare new voters and other Kerry supporters into going to the polls and give the Bush gang a false sense of confidence. I know I'll be camping out in front of my polling place, and I live in Texas.
I read this morning that Hispanics are breaking for Kerry.
Florida Hispanics are mostly Cuban and tend to be different. They have historically voted Republican over the Castro issue. Bush did piss them off a bunch, but it's yet to be seen what effect that has had.
Bitey
Call the Missouri democratic party HQ in St. Louis. I am sure they will be THRILLED for the help. You can search under the Missouri Democrats or something. Moveon.org has a whole site for traveling to swing states.
NYMary, we're having a little fest at our place to watch the returns -- and we'll be serving, among other things, Boston baked beans (the kind with Heinz ketchup in there), French wine & German beer (since our president-to-be will bring all our old allies back to our side), imported cheeses & crackers including Kerrygold Irish swiss cheese, and we'll have two champagne toasts: one at 7:01 our time when Senator-Elect Obama begins his victory speech, and one at maybe ten o'clock when President-Elect Kerry takes the stage in Boston to announce that George W. Bush had his mom make the concession call.
It'll be either before midnight or not till sunrise. Whatever. I might be having champagne for breakfast, but I'll be raising a glass of the good stuff to toast President-Elect Kerry. Veuve Cliquot. Can't go wrong with the Widow.
Hey, Florida was a Gore state and I pray they cant pull that stuff a second time while the whole world is watching. I mean Kerry isnt going to be reading my pet goat or get the willie's like AL did.
I don't know how this will play, but waits at the polls for early voting in Florida are 40 minutes or more. I think the casual voters will turn away from the polls if it's like that on Nov. 2nd. Many try to vote on the way to and from work or over lunch hour. I have no idea who that favors.
No one'll bother voting because the polling places will be too crowded.
My prediction:
Kerry wins
Bush cries like a little girl, then tries to set fire to the White House.
God, I could have spelled it right, couldn't I? The champagne we'll be drinking to toast President-Elect Kerry will be Veuve Clicquot. Duh.
Falstaff - true, but Florida also has a growning Mexican-American population, right?
Even my slightly conservative manicurist, who's voting Kerry, thinks JFK will win by a decisive margain. Hmmmm....
What election? You mean the one in my country? You mean the election when I finally get the office that was promised to me by Wolfy and Rummy?
I'm up in all the polls!
Would I ever lie?
-
Kerry will win big and we will know Tuesday. Much of this not knowing Tuesday crap is media mental masturbation hoping for another 2000. We will know Tuesday night.
The Newsweek model has 37% GOP voters, 31% Dem voters
If that is how the turnout is, then Bush wins.
Of course it will be nothing like that.
They are going to look so stupid comes Wednesday.
My prediction:
Kerry wins
Bush cries like a little girl, then tries to set fire to the White House.
watertiger
My prediction:
Kerry wins
Curious stockpiles of kool-aid and rat poison are noted in Crawford, Texas. Bush invites defeated Bushists to the ranch for a fruit punch party to show the world that God loves Bushists more and Bushists will sacrifice anything for the approval of their morally doubtful messiah.
Gut feeling:
Kerry 55-45.
By the way, even if it is 50-50,
how the fuck does Bush get away
with calling Kerry out of the
mainstream?
Falstaff - true, but Florida also has a growning Mexican-American population, right?
...That is true, and the older cubans are much more conservative than the ones who were born here. The younger Cubans, who never lived under Castro, seem to have a less hardline attitude toward Cuba, especially in the post-cold war era. Finally, Bush pushing more travel restrictions, has angered many Cubans who still have family in Cuba.
new link
My 2 cents:
Kerry will win 306-232.
Kerry also wins popular vote by one million.
Kerry gets Gore states + New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio. We only lose New Mexico.
America wins, Cons lose.
What about Hawaii? You forgot Hawaii! It's in play!
This is the prediction I made on Kos:
Kerry 50.1 %, Bush 48.6%
Kerry 299, Bush 239
Kerry wins OH, FL, WI, NH, PA, MI
Bush wins NM, IA
Please God, let it be so.
Kerry win must be decisive; otherwise the bastards will steal the thing. It can't be close.
Hey people - a suggestion from the Psy-Ops corner - vote that this OBL sh*t helps Bush on the online polls... please!
It will almost certainly get that EC total up to 300+...
In other news - I can't stand 4 more years of this moron... back to you.
Okay my predictions.
I don't think Bush is going to win Texas with as big a margin as he expects to, the early vote here has be huge, our liberal bastion of reason, Travis County had over 37% of registered voters, vote early and it was like that all over the state. For that reason I am guessing a larger Kerry victory than others. Kerry wins NM, Arizona, Colorado, and NH as well as the Gore 2000 states and the popular vote by about 8%. Ever the optimist, especially for my first post.
My second prediction:
Kerry wins
Laura2000 sticks out her arm, pushes a button on her watch, and a flap on her forearm opens, exposing a series of flashing numbers. THK realizes that the Laura2000 has just set herself to detonate and that "hundreds and hundreds" will be killed, and she singlehandedly tackles and disarms the Laura2000, gets up, dusts herself off, and goes back to hugging her newly-elected President/husband.
311-227 Kerry.
FL will go the way it *really* did in 2000. BTW, FL has a lot of Hispanics who are not Cuban, and they are going K in a big way.
I am in pure fantasy land, I suppose, but it would be so fucking cool if Bush lost Texas.
Kerry 272 - Bush 266
Kerry 49.5 - Bush 48.5 - Nader - 1.0 - Others 1.0
Same as Atrios except Bush takes IA and NM.
Bush by less than a point nationally.
Kerry wins the EV by taking Ohio and NH from Bush, but drops NM, plus either MN or Iowa.
Bush holds Florida.
The whole Hawaii thing turns out to be a sick joke.
Badnarik tops 1%. It would be cool if he swung NV to Kerry, but I wouldn't count on it.
If Bush were elected, we WILL be invading Cuba, likely to be followed by Iran and Venezuela.
My prediction, based on hunch and well, pulling it out of my ass: Kerry by at least 4% (Bush hasn't gone over 48% approval in a long time). Popular vote will favor Kerry by at least 2 million. Kerry takes Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Arkansas, Nevada, perhaps Colorado and yes, Florida.
Those people waiting in line to vote early? At least 3/4 of them are Kerry voters, people who are chomping at the bit to vote against Bush. With the long lines, there's no upside to voting early if you're going for Bush, other than you won't be able to get to the polls on election day.
Early voting has been heavy in Florida, that bodes well for Kerry, despite all of Jebbie and the other Nazi Youths' plans.
On another topic, I'm going to see the Big Dog tomorrow - got a personal phone call invite from the man himself (automated, of course) earlier today, but had already picked up my passes yesterday - and I didn't even have to sign a loyalty oath! Phonebanking for Kerry this evening and poll monitoring on Tuesday. We are opening a huge can of whoop-ass on this punk and his crew in Arkansas.
Here in western NC, a beautiful fall day made even more beautiful by yard after yard after yard with red,white & blue Kerry/Edwards signs. Watch NC go blue this time.
How about another category for voter turnout predictions? I predict 58% of voting age population. Which would be the best turnout since 1968 (60.8%)
That Anon at 3:31 was me.
DAMN YOU, HALOSCAN!!! (channeling Jon Stewart)
I say Kerry 308, Bush 230. I'm assuming Jeb has perfected election fraud this time, so I even gave Bush Florida. Kerry 54% PV.
Voter turnout will be about 62.5%
Important voter information for you to have and to share:
1. If you are not sure what the poll opening & closing times are for your state, or know somebody who needs this information, go here:
http://www.fec.gov/pages/faqs.htm
2. If you or somebody you know is registered, but unsure of where your voting location is, go here:
http://www.mypollingplace.com
3. If anyone tries to stop you from voting or you see anyone being stopped from voting call
1-866-Our-Vote
A Non-Partisan Hotline
4. Move On PAC Election Protection Card
Please print it out and carry it with you to the Polls
http://www.majorityreportradio.c...tes/
ep_card.pdf
Laura2000 sticks out her arm, pushes a button on her watch, and a flap on her forearm opens, exposing a series of flashing numbers. THK realizes that the Laura2000 has just set herself to detonate and that "hundreds and hundreds" will be killed, and she singlehandedly tackles and disarms the Laura2000, gets up, dusts herself off, and goes back to hugging her newly-elected President/husband.
watertiger
Priceless, watertiger. As always.
What about Virginia? Sure, it's a long shot...but most polls give bush a 4-6 pt lead.
With an influx of new young voters...
Andf I hate to be cranky about this, but is there anything we can do about Jimmy James? It's important information, but this is getting kind of old... Maybe I just need a nap.
My worst case scenario:
Kerry wins the popular vote by at least 3-4%, but the electoral vote comes up a tie.
House GOPranos re-install Bush, again in direct contradiction to the expressed will of the majority.
And then, probably civil war.
Those people waiting in line to vote early? At least 3/4 of them are Kerry voters, people who are chomping at the bit to vote against Bush.
Which brings up a point, if this is true:
Exit-polling on Tuesday may well be skewed toward Bush. If the exit polls show a Bush lead, Kerry may still win. If they show a dead heat or a Kerry lead, Kerry in the bag.
Early voting is really going to mess with media predictions Tuesday night.
I think Florida is a lot more likely to go to Kerry than most suspect. Notwithstanding the potential for funny business, I think the underreported story here is that the over 60 crowd is PISSED OFF. And depite the fact that they trend heavily republcan, there is enough anger and uncertainty.
I was reading a brief yesterday that talked about how:
- credit card debt is growing fastest for over-60s
- rates of second and remortgages are soaring for over-60s
- personal bankruptcies are growing fastest for this group as well.
- the 17 percent Medicare premium increase hasn't helped
- the past 4 years of stock market perfromance has hurt pensioners
- the wholesales dismantling of the prviate pension system has torpedoed the net worth of a lot of people in this group
The long-awaited goldent years for the greaatest generation are no longer so goldent, tarnished by the BushCo policy of reverse wealth distribution.
I think there is going to be a senior backlash that is unanticipated here, and that it will push Florida into the blue category come Tuesday, and do so so convincingly that the result won't end up in court. We don't see this backlash in the blogosphere, 'cause let's face it, that's not who's playing this game. This issue of angry seniors has legs, though, and I think it will have a major impact.
"The Newsweek model has 37% GOP voters, 31% Dem voters"
If these are the internals, it's easy to normalize the results to see what the reality is:
Instead of 51% Bush, 45% Kerry we get -
Bush 47%, Kerry 49%
Huh. Imagine that.
Kenosha Kid,
What about your home state? (Assuming you are, actually, from Kenosha?) electoral-vote.com was flipping it for ages, but now have it as weak Kerry.
Voter turnout will be about 62.5%
Voter turnout of over 54% favors Kerry. Over 58% would be Kerry in a landslide. Bush needs turnout under 53% to be competitive.
100% turnout (in my house).
Have you contacted your media whore today?
http://www.fair.org/media-contac...ntact-
list.html
Kerry 518 aWol 20 EV (AL, WV WY)
69 K/27 aWol/3 Badnarik/1 Nader
OK, this is going out on a limb here, since I think WV will break for Kerry at the last minute
Voter turnout over 60%.
I think kerry would win florida if not for shenanigans, but we know how corrupt they are.
What about your home state? (Assuming you are, actually, from Kenosha?) electoral-vote.com was flipping it for ages, but now have it as weak Kerry.
I'm from New York, a safe Kerry state. I still think WI is going to go for Kerry, but that's just a hunch. Electoral-Vote shows NJ as being tied, so I take their stuff with a grain of salt.
Have we had a presidential vote in the last century with turnout over 54%?
I think ( hope) that long lines ( and a long wait) will benefit the Dems and other anti-Bush voters? My precinct was pretty busy, but I was ready to stand there all day if that's what it took to be able to fill-in the circle next to Kerry-Edwards. I know there are alot of Bush fanatics out there, but what's the stronger motivator - voting to keep someone IN office or voting to toss someone OUT of office?
Le Monde headline on Wednesday: "Nous sommes tous Américains encore"
New Mexico is a Gore state where Bush is
ahead in recent polls. Howeer,neither N.M or Iowas has enough electoral votes to be worth an "oh shit we're in trouble."
284 to 254 for Kerry is identical to my prediction, except that mine is a minimum 284. It may go higher.
Interesting discussion over at Talk Left on what OBL meant when he said he was surprised that Bush would leave 50,000 to fend for themselves at the Towers on 9/11. Is OBL implying that Bush received warning ahead of time and didn't alert anyone?
My prediction?
When Kerry wins on tuesday, w throws a big fucking baby fit, right on National TV. He won't be a gracious loser.
Just learned my father-in-law will be voting for Kerry. The first D in the years I have known him. (Since 1970)
Good sign.
Is no one aware that a quarter of Nevada's votes have already been announced and Kerry is winning by 7000 votes (3%)? I don't have time to link, but it was on buzzflash.com (search for silver state)
Think about this before you cast your vote.
Look at the following list of names and consider who they would most likely vote for if they were allowed to vote in our coming election,
Martin Luther King
Abraham Lincoln
Thomas Jefferson
Benjamin Franklin
Thomas Paine
Gandhi
Eleanor Roosevelt
Robert Kennedy
Nelson Mandela
Bishop Tutu
The Lorax
When you cast your vote will you be voting the same way as you think the above people will vote?
How closely aligned with these people will you be
A bet on the likely electoral vote totals is outside my limited prediction ability. But I think Kerry will win the popular vote by 1 million+ votes.
I also expect that even that will not be sufficient to keeps the rethugs from cranking up the fog machine and muttering about "concerns with certain precincts", and "disturbing reports of widespread voter fraud".
Here in NV, early voting concluded last night (not sure why they stopped for the weekend)and early voter turnouts have been astounding. Nevada may not be the takeaway that the local republicans think it is.
Answer to my own question on turnout:
2000 - 51.3
1996 - 49.1
1992 - 55.1
1988 - 50.1
1984 - 53.1
1980 - 52.6
1976 - 53.6
1972 - 55.2
1968 - 60.8
1964 - 61.9
1960 - 63.1
So we have had elections in the 60 percentile, but not since 68'.
Kerry wins popular vote
Kerry wins EC vote
Bush wins the Supreme Court vote 5-4
Civil war follows
NYMary,
I blush at your compliment.
(some day, someone's gotta explain to me how to get the different-colored smiley faces)
I really believe Kerry will win and we will know Tues. night. FL & OH go blue. Beyond that I don't feel qualified to make predictions, but I'm loving reading all of yours!
NY Mary,
I can't take full responsibility for the scenario -- it is, ironically enough, paraphrased from Arnie Gropinator's "Predator."
But being the movie buff you are, you probably knew that already.
"It's not a tooo-mah!"
When Kerry wins on tuesday, w throws a big fucking baby fit, right on National
TV. He won't be a gracious loser.
Central Scrutinizer | Email | Homepage
Oh god, I want to see that.
OT Tom Ridge on MSNBC/Faux at fake "news conference" on OBL tape.
Negative shame level.
-
His worldview will be punctured. Probably fall off the wagon. I don't wish him ill (really), but it will expose him for what he is. Hollow.
When Kerry wins on tuesday, w throws a big fucking baby fit, right on National TV.
I want to see W turn to Cheney and slap him in the face. "You promised, you bitch!"
I can't really see W making a concession speech. He doesn't know how.
CO for Kerry with 9 EV's.
GOTV is smokin' - and people are walking into our office in droves, we are trying to put together packets for the walkins.
116+ million vote:
Kerry 59 million 50.85%
Bush 56+ million 49.30%
other 1 million .85%
Kerry 296 elec.
Bush 242 elec.
it is going to be a rough week at work as i will be missing both Nov. 2 for gotv and Nov. 3 due to post-election celebration hangover.
No. Regardless how it goes, the left will stay focused. A phoney scandal will be met once again with a full court press by the left, a la Sinclair. This ain't 1992.
Not only that - people tuned in for a change and were properly aghast at what they saw. Remember, the cables only have one million or fewer viewers. Friday when the tape was announced, people at work just laughed and started cracking jokes about the right wing. this from people who had never heard of Hannity until two months ago. The sleeping dragon is awaking.
I'm still predicting a landslide. They can only steal it if it is close.
We are on track for historic turnout in this election. Voters are coming out in record numbers for John Kerry.
And that has the Republicans scared. They have no plan, no hope, no way to win this election except to stop people from voting. Their strategy is simple:
1.Discourage Democratic voters from going to the polls by filling the airwaves with predictions of doom and gloom.
2.Delay voting and create lines at polls by challenging voters and election officials.
3.Deny voters the opportunity to cast their votes and have them counted.
But their strategy won't work. We will stop their attempts to deny our rights by using the best weapons in our arsenal: information and education.
It's vital that you know your voting rights. Take a minute today to make sure that others know their rights, too. Download our guide to voting rights:
http://www.democrats.org/votingrights/
Make sure to print out multiple copies and help us spread the word by distributing them as widely as you can.
For information about finding your polling place, use our polling place locator at Democrats.org:
http://www.democrats.org/
Remember: Voting is your right, and you are protected under the law. Exercise your right by voting for John Kerry, John Edwards, and all our Democratic candidates on November 2!
Kerry by 3+%
ECV: 322 Kerry takes Maine, NH, VT, RI, Mass, Ct,NY, NJ, Pa, DE, Ohio, Mi,Wis,Minn,Iow, Ark, NM,CO, Ca, Or,Was,Ha....and for good measure Florida by 2%.
What's with all of the negativity about KE's chances in NM? From where I'm sitting in Santa Fe (getting ready to see Teresa Heinz Kerry and Pres. Clinton speak from the historic Plaza)support for KE is overwhelming and the GOTV effort is really strong. According to NYTimes, 30% of registered voters in Santa Fe County have taken part in early voting, which I think helps KE. The problem in NM is going to be counting the early/absentee votes. The secretary of state has already announced that the unprecedented volume of early voting and absentee voting will slow down NM's election-night results. Don't count the Land of Enchantment in BC's column yet.
Anon at 3:31/Jennifer
Right the fuck on!
In the Senate: we hold Nc and SC. Take OK, Alaska, and Col....we are up by one but worst even and Edwards breaks tie votes! We pick up 2-3 in the House.
Anybody watching that Tom Ridge news conference? Is there just ONE reporter there? And is she a reporter or a staffer?
bubb rubb
I think they will launch a kerry "war crimes trial" as soon as he wins the election.
http://www.needlenose.com/win04/...win04/
vote2.htm
VISUALIZE....THIS IS GREAT...TAKE A LOOK AND GET POSITIVE AND GET PEOPLE TO THE POLLS!!!!!
d. Brooks - I have never wished anyone harm, am firmly opposed to the death penalty, and was raised a good Quaker - but- I do wish the fucker harm. He has killed 100,000 and has tried to single handedly destroy this nation.
No one's taking into account the televised Bush endorsement Monday by Our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ.
On Fox, at 11 AM.
The good news -- or should I say Good News -- is this will put America's Popular Wartime President(*) over the top.
Jesus tested well in several focus groups we held in battleground states, despite some resistance based, we suspect, on His religion.
The bad news is this pushes back the effective date of the Rapture till 2016, and the conclusion of Jeb's second term.
* 'America's Popular Wartime President' is a licensed trademark of Fox News Incorporated, a division of News Corp., and is used with their permission.
Kerry by 8 in popular vote;
Kerry gets 317 EV, Bush 221.
Tom Ridge needs to go home to Pennsylvania and get a nice hobby.
OK, maybe it was Jeanne Meserve with CNN, but that was one WEIRD press conference. Now she's sayng Ridge said he would not raise threat level but had taken some specific steps, but then Ridge came back to clarify that he should not have said he had taken specific steps.
????????
Confusion is their friend, I guess.
-
Pop vote: Kerry 53%, Chimp 46%
Electoral: Kerry 311, Chimp 227
Election decided: Tuesday night,
Champagne: Moet et Chandon White Star.
Electoral Votes
Kerry 318
Bush 221
Popular Vote
Kerry 50
Bush 49
jsg,
As I understand it, the early voting results are NOT released until Nov 2, a rule which I wholeheartedly agree with.
The Buzzflash article you mentioned quotes "The Ralston Report" a subscription publication put out by a local TV reporter/commentator.
I THINK that the KE 7000+ margin they mentioned was obtained by using the total number of early and absentee votes cast (and this IS released before Nov 2) and guestimating a margin by using the relative proportions of dem vs repub registrations. But, this is just in turn a guess on my part.
Important voter information for you to have and to share:
1. If you are not sure what the poll opening & closing times are for your state, or know somebody who needs this information, go here:
http://www.fec.gov/pages/faqs.htm
2. If you or somebody you know is registered, but unsure of where your voting location is, go here:
http://www.mypollingplace.com
3. If anyone tries to stop you from voting or you see anyone being stopped from voting call
1-866-Our-Vote
A Non-Partisan Hotline
4. Move On PAC Election Protection Card
Please print it out and carry it with to the Polls
http://www.majorityreportradio.c...tes/
ep_card.pdf
5. If you are IN LINE to vote when the polls are scheduled to close, your have an absolute right to get in to vote. THAT'S THE LAW!
White star? NO>>>>
KRUG ..MAGNUM ....1971
In honor of Kerrys testimony at Senate Foregin Relations committee on 22 April 1971!!!!
I grabed this photo from the washington post.
Kerry and legends of supporters
Dear media,
Here is a real October surpise. We are not happy and we want our country back.
Kerry in a landslide!
Florida for Kerry...I "feel" it!
I live in an older, pretty well-off neighborhood (we live in a "lesser" bungalow house) and it's pretty much divided up 33-33-33: houses with no signs, houses with Bush signs and houses with Kerry signs.
Noone is stealing Kerry signs and none of our more conservative neighbors have given us any grief about our support for Kerry. It wasn't like this during out last election for city council members - about (2) years ago. Then the neighborhood was littered with signs for the republican candidate and our sign for the Democratic candidate were always being pulled up and tossed around.
Corrine Brown's office seems to be revved up and in high-gear. The lady I spoke to at the elections office remembered all too well what happened in 2000 and told me, as in individual - not as a representative of her office - that many local groups had organized and WERE organized to make sure that we don't have another "2000."
I'm working on my parents by innundating them with anti-Bush emails and links. My mom is a Dem but doesn't follow the news. She believed that Bush attacked Iraq because Iraq was going to attack us! She thought Bush was a "strong" leader like Truman or Eisenhower! I don't think she believes those things anymore. My dad identifies as a conservative, but he doesn't respect "stupid or incompetent" and I think he will go ahead and give Kerry a chance. Plus, he keeps telling me to "bring on" the anti-Bush links, etc. And I mean that in a good way. He is very receptive and open about it. Plus, he's been trolling the "internets" looking for Kerry endorsements and then he passes those on to me!
oops
screwed the pooch
317 Kerry
221 Bush
screwed the pooch
317 Kerry
221 Bush
elvis,
anyone can see that photo was doctored to include more people than were really there. I mean, look at all the yellow signs! They're all repeated at the same intervals!
Just testing out my Halloween costume -- I'm going as an wilfully ignorant Republican.
my predicted EV over/under: Kerry 311, Kerry gets 52% of the pop vote.
Early voting was insane in GA. Gwinnett County's election supervisor admitted "Statewide, we got caught with our pants down," in the AJC. There was even two-plus hour wait in line in psycho republican East Cobb County.
Click on homepage for my only real worry about this election...
I wouldn't give MO to the reds just yet. There's civilization on the east & west borders,and I think with the GOTV, we just might outvote the hillbillies in the middle.
Le Monde headline on Wednesday: "Nous sommes tous Américains encore"
Philboid Studge
Phil, thank you (and from your keyboard to God's ears). That hit me like a bolt of lightning and my eyes are still leaking around the edges.
My esteemed spouse the Temporarily-Ex-Republican said something last night, that deep down this election would turn on whether the American people want to be loved and admired again, or whether they've gotten so weirded out that they would really rather be feared.
Seems a lot of Dems across the country are in a funk. Is it burnout or do they see a loss? I'm a Liberal and I see a big let down for Liberals even if Kerry does pull the miracle.
I am in St. Louis and I just cannot imagine MO going for Kerry. Unfortunately, the red-necks must be breeding like rabbits, because this state seems even more conservative than 4 years ago. Just look at the gay marriage/hate amendment that passed with 70% of the vote.
At least I converted my wife.
Route 66%,
RE:"What's with all of the negativity about KE's chances in NM? "
Recent NM polls:
Zogby tracking Oct. 29
Bush by 9% 51%-42%-3%
Rasmussen Reports 10/26
Bush by 4% New Mexico 48-44-2-(4.5)
American Research Group
Kerry by 2% " 46-48-1-(4) 10/16-10/18
Mason-Dixon 10/15 - 10/18
Bush by 5% " 49-44-n-(4)
That's why. Now before everybody calls me a troll and shouts "fuck the polls!", I acknowledge that this may not reflect the actual outcome.I,too, have bought into the Democratic groundswell meme. And if the challenger is up in most of the polls at this point, it's almost a sure win, as is the case in a whole mess of important swing states. But Kerry is not looking too good right now in NM. That 9% lead in the Zogby tracking is probably an outlier, but the other polls have bush by 4 and 5%, so it might not be a severe outlier. A 5% incumbent lead in the polling is not insurmountable, especially if your base is really fired up, but it is cause for concern. When you show me a recent poll where it's tied or almost tied, I'll be optimistic. Until then, NM is pink in my book.
dead on atrios ... that's what i forecasted about a month ago .. although my over/under on the popular vote is 2%
When Kerry wins on tuesday, w throws a big fucking baby fit, right on National
TV. He won't be a gracious loser.
Central Scrutinizer | Email | Homepage
Oh god, I want to see that.
steve simels
I am feeling a Tricky Dick moment when the cameras start rolling
Dubya: "You won't have Chimperor to shake around anymore!"
Of course he was sent out to say "kick around anymore," but like the debates he screws this one up also.
At least I converted my wife.
bdub - Dick and Lynne Cheney on line one.
chris/tx
maybe i am a little slow today because i am suffering the horror of horrors that is working the weekend away, but i dont get it.
CNN
Monday, November 6, 2000
Via Lexis Nexis:
BLITZER: "And now, let's take a look at the latest poll numbers. The new CNN/"USA Today" Gallup Tracking Poll results are being released at this hour. It shows George W. Bush with 48 percent, Al Gore 43 percent, Ralph Nader with 4 percent, Pat Buchanan with 1 percent.
And those numbers are similar to other tracking polls. Take a look: ABC's poll has Bush at 49 percent, Gore at 45 percent; The Washington Post, Bush at 48 percent, Gore at 46 percent; the NBC-Wall Street Journal tracking poll, Bush at 47 percent, Gore 44 percent. And both the CBS and MSNBC-Reuters-Zogby tracking polls have Bush at 46, Gore at 44 percent."
That was the day before Gore won the popular vote.
I want to say Tennessee is in play here. I live in East TN (the reddest of the red) and have never seen so many yard signs and bumperstickers for a Democrat before. Middle and West TN are much more liberal than the hills of East TN. People are as pissed here as they are in the rest of the country. I say, if TN doesn't go Kerry, it'll be by a hair.
bdub - my poor attempt at humor.
You "converted your wife", and right before that you were talking about the gay amendment...Mary Cheney is gay...Oh well, I tried.
that is what i thought (after a moment of reflection).
i think my neurons are not firing properly due to election expectations.
bdub - join the crowd, I'm looking at getting a couple Oxycontin's for Tuesday around lunch, and maybe a methane drip for the evening if this thing is close.
I have to say that after looking at Zogby, when an incumbent President is running 1 point behind the challenger this late in the game, you gotta think Kerry has it.
But I can't tell you how many times I have come up with
269-269
another point that I was making to some friends at a party last night:
not only do the media love a close horserace to get more people reading/watching, the polling companies themselves have a vested interest in showing it tight. the closer the race is, the more polls they are commissioned to do,hence the higher their sales. as long as we keep this in mind, we'll be able to explain the landslide for JFK come Nov 3
Gore was here in Hawaii last night and spoke at an open neighborhood high school. Go Al! Cheney, the Prince of Darkness, is at the super secure convention center tomorrow. He's on at 11:00 PM on Halloween -- SPOOKTACULAR! -- scaring any kids staying up late. I'll be working GOTV this weekend and putting the champagne on ice!
Palm Beach Gardens Dem club e-mail rec'd today:
NBC plans to have Rush Limbaugh as election night commentator. Contact
Nightlynbc.com
I e-mailed & called accussing them of promoting the hate in our country.
Maybe we can all do something about this.
bush gets less than 50% of the Protestant vote(55% in 2000). Religious right turnout no better than 2000. As much as a quarter to 3rd of the RR vote 3rd party/write in. RRs are not happy with bush. bush does a little better with the Jewish vote(17% in 2000), but not enough to make a difference. Republicans not happy either. 25% to 30% of Repubs vote Kerry or Badnarik and lie to exit pollers saying they voted bush.
Florida goes Dem just like in 2000. No recount. Kerry picks up all the '00 buchanan votes plus most Dem votes are counted. Kerry 48% to bush 46%.
Pen. goes Dem just like in 2000. Kerry 49% to bush 46%
Iowa goes Dem. Kerry 48% to bush 47%
Percent of popular vote: Kerry 48% to bush 46.5%
EC count: Kerry 282
Surprise: bush only gets 50% of texas votes (he got 59% in 2000)
I have no idea how it'll turn out. None. I'll be poll monitoring, and I doubt I'll have the stomach to turn on the teevee that night.
I'll log on the morning of Nov 3rd, and if Jk won I'll rejoice...at least until the gop starts their court bullshit, at which time I'll be ready to beat the snot outta the cretins...no standing by this time for gop rent-a-mobs.
If chimpy wins, I pull my bookmarks, turn off the teevee, and never read a paper for the next several years. I just won't be able to mentally handle any more of their rape.
I gotta a new piano I want to learn to play, and a video I wanna make. I'll concentrate on growing my biz and learning some new skills.
I'm hours late here but I think Kerry will win by at least 53%, maybe more.
I don't think the polls are even beginning to register the amount of anger out there.
I downloaded MOSH and sent it to every kid I could think of. Kids are (and have been) turning out huge for Kerry.
God bless'm, they're going to be the difference.
fourlegsgood - spot on. Hey rethugs - see that big mass of young people marching to the polls? They're not wearing powder blue button-downs and khaki dockers - they're wearing black hoodies. Be afraid. Be VERY afraid.
-
Sorry, went all Brooks there for a minute..
-
Let's face it. If Kerry were to lose Minnesota all is lost, in more ways than one. IA and Wisc. have flirted with red before, but not MN.
I don't think it's going to happen, btw.
First act of a new Kerry administration--invite the press in to witness a complete steam cleaning of the Oval Office and the private WH quarters (just like they did to the Clintons and the Carters)
Second Act-take pictures of the West Wing offices being trashed by outgoing Brown Shirts...
Third--Order up all the Cheney energy task force documents--including the collusion of Arnold Schwazie-Girlie with the California problems and feed them raw to Air America...perhaps a new recall can get Cully-fornia off to a good start...
In short, put the bastards on the defensive....
My Saturday morning errands take me along the same route patrolled by hundreds of North Central Phoenix 'soccer moms.' At each stop today - library, Petsmart, grocery store, repair shop - I was surrounded, -bathed- in K/E signs and portents. From the lamp repair owners' SUV covered with 3x5 placards (Democrats Fix Things!)to the lady in the Basha's parking lot, there is more action for K/E than I have seen since Bill Clinton took Arizona. AZ's going blue again. (And what you must understand is that I'm talking about 'Old Phoenix' - not the folks who've toddled in for retirement from Ohio, or Penna, or California - this is the part of town where John McCain lives down the street, where Nathan Sproul isn't allowed in.)
It isn't imagination. AZ's blue this year.
I want to say Tennessee is in play here. I live in East TN (the reddest of the red) and have never seen so many yard signs and bumperstickers for a Democrat before. Middle and West TN are much more liberal than the hills of East TN. People are as pissed here as they are in the rest of the country. I say, if TN doesn't go Kerry, it'll be by a hair.
beck
beck, that's the best news I've heard all season. If we can hold even in the east, and get a decent turnout in Memphis (Big Dog in AR this weekend should help), we can take TN! It'll be the 2nd biggest shocker after VA.
Actually, he forgot Virginia!
Nov 2,
Every voter should have a waepon of choice with them when voting!
Camera
Video Cam
Tape recorder
Every voter should use this weapons with the intent to put the thugs in prison for voter civil rights violations. Use them often and protect all Americans.
Put the THUGs on record, and send to prison! Remember it is their LAW and ORDER we can use against! We can remove them from the voting rolls. We can make all of Felons and remove their voting rights.
Cameras
video cams
tape recorders
Cameras
video cams
tape recorders
Cameras
video cams
tape recorders
Cameras
video cams
tape recorders
Cameras
video cams
tape recorders
Millions of pictures = millions of felon charges and millions of repub thugs out of work.
Hey, we can create millions of new jobs for ourselves. Real economic growth over night.
Cameras
video cams
tape recorders
Let's Roll!
Encore presentation... MY predictions:
According to the MSNBC poll (below, and FWIW), the election isn't moving off the dime, now. If you're set on a candidate, that's it. Big stars won't move you; nothing can happen between now and Tuesday that might change your mind. An overwhelming amount of voters think, ho hum, the election will still be fixed (and yeah, BTW, Kerry is the overwhelming fave to find and kill Bin Laden).
What this means is that it's all GOTV now. Never in the history of our species have the Dems been out there to such an extent on bus trips, etc., doing just that. On the other hand, never before has such an early and drop-dead organized voter suppression scheme been in place.
You gotta figure that despite the Dems' and the law's best efforts to fight this, there will be an automatic percentage of successful voter suppression. Versus our GOTV. I think the R's will achieve a slightly higher percentage of the former, and in the end, the GOTV will be cancelled-out, frankly.
(Why is voter tampering not a federal capital crime?? Why is it taken in stride by the whore media that it's happening... and why the meme that "both sides do it"?? IT'S THE REPUBLICANS, STUPID!)
Which brings us to the polls we're seeing now. Unlike most, I do believe in polls. The polls are unnaturally flat, with a slight edge toward Bush.
Which leaves us with the only unknown factors left: newly-registered students, last-minute traditional breaking for the challenger and people with cell phones only. If voter suppression doesn't take them out, we've got it. Otherwise, this is an awfully nasty Hail Mary to overcome.
But this whole thing is an abomination, and not exactly a glowing worldwide testimonial for American style democracy. Like the R's care.
Think about this before you cast your vote.
Look at the following list of names and consider who they would most likely vote for if they were allowed to vote in our coming election,
Martin Luther King
Abraham Lincoln
Thomas Jefferson
Benjamin Franklin
Thomas Paine
Gandhi
Eleanor Roosevelt
Robert Kennedy
Nelson Mandela
Bishop Tutu
The Lorax
When you cast your vote will you be voting the same way as you think the above people will vote?
How closely aligned with these people will you be?
I'm still working on trying to become cynical enough.
I'm predicting Bush 5, Kerry 4, and "as in 2000, no precedent is set by this ruling, again."
We are on track for historic turnout in this election. Voters are coming out in record numbers for John Kerry.
And that has the Republicans scared. They have no plan, no hope, no way to win this election except to stop people from voting. Their strategy is simple:
1.Discourage Democratic voters from going to the polls by filling the airwaves with predictions of doom and gloom.
2.Delay voting and create lines at polls by challenging voters and election officials.
3.Deny voters the opportunity to cast their votes and have them counted.
But their strategy won't work. We will stop their attempts to deny our rights by using the best weapons in our arsenal: information and education.
It's vital that you know your voting rights. Take a minute today to make sure that others know their rights, too. Download our guide to voting rights:
http://www.democrats.org/votingrights/
Make sure to print out multiple copies and help us spread the word by distributing them as widely as you can.
For information about finding your polling place, use our polling place locator at Democrats.org:
http://www.democrats.org/
Remember: Voting is your right, and you are protected under the law. Exercise your right by voting for John Kerry, John Edwards, and all our Democratic candidates on November 2!
Have you contacted your Corporate Media Whore today?
http://www.fair.org/media-contac...ntact-
list.html
The early voting sites with long lines are favoring Kerry hands down. We were at the voting site last night, and since there are no booths, you can just stand there and watch people marking their ballots. It was 100% Kerry, here in California. (I know, no help) but, these people were waiting nearly 2 hours, and that shows which candidate is worth a 2 hour wait. This was in Orange County, which is predominately Repub.
Kerry -- high 280s, low 290s
The Red Sox victory parade wound its way down Boylston St. today past the construction in progress for John Kerry's victory celebration in Copley Square.
Red Sox nation is delirious. Let's spread it to the rest of the country!
Florida is ours, even giving the Rethugs a point's worth of suppression. I'm a former pollster, but I say this because my home voicemail got four GOTV calls, one each day since Wednesay. I've never gotten one before, in eight prior presidential elections. The effort and coordination in South Florida is historic. People of good will, who believe in social justice and a level playing field, liberals, centrists and conservatives, all energized and acting like an organized poilitical party. I wish Will Rogers was here to see this.
Everyone is predicting....so I'll take a hand:
Popular Vote:
Kerry - 52%
Bush - 47%
others - 1%
The numbers are clearly tracking toward Kerry, as they did toward Gore at the end of the last election (excuse me, the last non-election appointment). THere are fewer undecideds and hence slightly less room for movement. However, the methodology of the pollsers is HIGHLY questionable. Gallup and ABC news in particular have samples that seem deliberately biased toward Bush. Hence, I think the above numbers are going to turn out to be pretty close.
However, the electoral college is another matter. It would be VERY easy for Bush to get as many as 284 electoral votes, even while losing the popular vote convincingly.
No one here has mentioned Michigan where the race seems to be tight, nor has New Jersey been mentioned. Kerry appears to have sufficient lead in Florida and even Ohio to avoid the court challenges...but we could see Michigan, Wisconsin, New Jersey and possibly Iowa and Hawaii with court challenges.
If it goes to the courts...well, Bush gets renamed. If if goes to the House (where redistricting has drawn lines to disenfranchise large blocks of Democratic voters -- my state of Oklahoma being a prime example) Bush gets renamed.
No matter how this contest turns out the country needs fundamental constitutional reform. The system is designed (read Jefferson and Madison) to favor rural over urban interests, small states over large. That means it favors the fascists, I mean the Bushites. I hope that this community continues to be galvanized around constitutional reform (electoral reform will not suffice.)
That's my $0.02 worth.
Florida is ours, even giving the Rethugs a point's worth of suppression. I'm a former pollster, but I say this because my home voicemail got four GOTV calls, one each day since Wednesay. I've never gotten one before, in eight prior presidential elections. The effort and coordination in South Florida is historic. People of good will, who believe in social justice and a level playing field, liberals, centrists and conservatives, all energized and acting like an organized poilitical party. I wish Will Rogers was here to see this.
Have no fear about the Garden State - it's blue. Just got back from canvassing all afternoon. My four year-old went with me - rang doorbells and handed out literature like a pro. She's my red, white and blue diaper baby.
Florida is ours, even giving the Rethugs a point's worth of suppression. I'm a former pollster, but I say this because my home voicemail got four GOTV calls, one each day since Wednesay. I've never gotten one before, in eight prior presidential elections. The effort and coordination in South Florida is historic. People of good will, who believe in social justice and a level playing field, liberals, centrists and conservatives, all energized and acting like an organized poilitical party. I wish Will Rogers was here to see this.
I think Kerry is definitely taking Wisconsin!! I'll be phone banking for Kerry Sun. from 3-6pm.
Tuesday I'm a poll worker and then to the K/E 04 victory party at a local club...
Mark from Wisco
"oh shit we're in trouble states" LOL
So how about a, "Oh boy, Kerry landslide" state, I think we'll win Virginia and maybe North Carolina.
"If chimpy wins, I pull my bookmarks, turn off the teevee, and never read a paper for the next several years. I just won't be able to mentally handle any more of their rape.
I gotta a new piano I want to learn to play, and a video I wanna make. I'll concentrate on growing my biz and learning some new skills."
I completely agree. If my intuition is somehow off and the chimp "wins," I will have to take a long break from news, etc. I really just can't imagine that as a country we could be collectively duped enough to put that asshole in office again.
But, I have to say that I feel good, especially after seeing all of the Kerry signs here in the Shenandoah Valley in Virginia. In 2K, it was NOTHING but Bush all over the place. Now, it's about 50-50. This is HUGE. Now, I don't think it will mean that Kerry will take VA, but it might be much closer here than everyone expects. Of course, if Kerry took VA, I would be ecstatic. I don't know what the EV or PV will be, but high turnout favors the Democrats without question.
If my "N" is any guide, I think we can legitimately say "President" again as a modifier for the individual in the White House. President Kerry...I like the ring that has!
Let’s all remember Senate Seats Matter too Baby .
...........
Chris John for Louisiana Senate
.............
Denise Majette for Senate from Georgia
...............
Especial focus for Texas and Louisiana Dems:
Defeat Tom Delay .
.............
Zelma Tisa Blakes for the runoff.
............
Max Sandlin Texas
..............
Hugs and kisses from the South.
...............
Ha, ha, I am all set to take some time off and long-standing travel plans for the exact opposite reason.
...........
It is 2 more days Baby and John Kerry is the next President and I won’t havta turn on the tee vee or read a newspaper for anything more than the local sales and the sports news and I can just smile, smile, smile. .
............
The country is gonna be in excellent hands and Mommy takes a beautiful rest. Yeah, I know the thugniks gonna be itching and kvitching soon enough and getting their undies all rolled up in a bunch soon enough but time now for Me to take a beautiful rest.
............
Rock on my sweet babies and BTW, Eagles tryta keep it together this time.
............
NYMary, we're having a little fest at our place... I'll be raising a glass of the good stuff to toast President-Elect Kerry. Veuve Cliquot. Can't go wrong with the Widow.
strawhat
Street address and phone number please! LOL
AT
I am a little concerned with all the optimism because of all the lawn signs. I am a lifelong Democrat in a conservative town and while I've never been quiet about my politics, I've never had a lawn sign up either - until this year. This holds true for at least 5 other houses on my block. Between the outrage of Florida 2000 and the worst president since U. Grant, a lot of people are fighting mad and ready to get in other people's faces, but I'm not sure that this means more votes.
HOWEVER, where the polls may definitely be undercounting the Kerry vote is in the no phone/cell phone only voters not being polled. There are probably double tihis category if not more from 2000 and they probably go mostly if not overwhelmingly for Kerry. Could we be seeing a repeat of 1936 when the previously respected Literary Digest comitted one of the all-time polling fiascoes by predicting an Alf Landon landslide over FDR because of a telephone poll when during the Great Depression, only the wealthiest 10% had telephones and they all hated FDR. FDR ended up winning 48 states. The no landwire phone could be a big factor. Let's hope!!!
I'm confused about the voter fraud charge in Ohio.
The Republicans are complaining that there are more registered voters than there are citizens of the city, or something like that.
Can someone explain what the reality is?
The Red Sox victory parade wound its way down Boylston St. today past the construction in progress for John Kerry's victory celebration in Copley Square.
Not only that, but Curt Schilling backed off from introducing Dumbya in NH yesterday, and the Globe said today that his confetti machine erupted noisly before he was finished speaking.. Just priceless..
thankfully schilling backed off the dubya endorsement or we'd be looking at another 86 year curse -- at least bulldog curt had some perception living in a democratic state
FL is gonna go Kerry. people are freaking CHARGED up here. in Gainesville, President Smirky Blink Blink is comning to town in the morning, and all 15,000 tickets are gone. (wow, a whole 15,000, how many folks were at the Springsteen rally in WI?)
my personal peeve, today's G-ville Sun (a subsidiary of the NYT) reported the race in Florida a "Dead Heat" and then explained in the second graph that polls (ie WaPo/NYT) put the race at K-48% B 46%. a real dead heat!
90% of the students here have cell phones. the gotv on campus has been intense, like elsewhere in the state. we have 17 phone gotv messages on our machine from the last two days.
Dear Leader is so over. Florida (and especially Duval County) will avenge the theft of 2000. bet on it!
Heard from friends in MN -- at Kerry rally last week, they were 30,000 strong. By contrast, Bush held rally in white flight suburbs and the police count was 17,500. MN is NOT going red. People are expecting to wait for hours at polls and I can tell you no one is leaving, especially after what happened with the Wellstone memorial two years ago.
In Iowa, the born again Christians who are ethical people are disgusted with Bush's prosecution of the war are voting Kerry.
Wisconsin Naderites are going to come to their senses as well. Friends in FL have all voted already and are getting out the vote.
These pollsters are way out of touch. I am in Taiwan on a Fubright and I think the State Department here is for Kerry (mostly) because of what happened to State under the Rumsfeld-Wolfowitz-Rice troika of lies and deception.
The POLLSTERS are so wrong -- Kerry by overwhelming amounts. It's a vibe I am feeling half way around the world.
And thanks for the news from Tennessee!
I live in MN, volunteered (again) for Kerry GOTV today, and feel pretty good about our chances here. It is not going to be a blowout by any measure though.
I, like many of you I imagine, have seen many polls recently in swing states, almost all within the margin of error either way. It still looks to me like Kerry absolutely has to win Ohio or Florida (assuming, as we all are, he takes PA and MI), and probably MN and WI with them.
The polls give me no reason for particular optimism (or pessimism). Based on the polls alone, it's impossible to predict what will happen.
So, I deperately want to believe that the polls are wrong because they are based on baselines from past elections (in terms of turnout, likely voters, ratio of Dem to Repub voters who will vote, etc.) and do not capture presumably pro-Kerry factors like (1) strong turnout; and (2) cell phone and newly registered voters not reflected in polls will be part of that strong turnout.
I want so badly for Kerry to win, I would like to feel confident about the result. I won't, though, until election officials start reporting unoprecedented (in recent history) turnout numbers. Until then, I guess a little fear isn't a bad thing -- it will get me out to volunteer for GOTV yet again tomorrow, and have me taking Tuesday off.
The comments on this site have been great for a couple months, so wanted to end by saying thanks to those in other states who have been fighting hard and writing words of encouragement to everyone to roll up our sleeves. Always a Dem/Green voter, this is the first election cycle I have poured energy and emotion into volunteering.
If Kerry wins, I'll be toasting you all here in Minneapolis!
I'm here in Toledo, Ohio and, while there are enough of the Bushies to drink the kool-aid and take that oath, I'm fairly sure they are well out-numbered. OHIO GOES TO KERRY!!!
(Oh, please God, please!)
Xan and beck,
Just wanted to let you know, middle TN is in pretty good shape. Just drove through residential Brentwood (wealthy suburb of Nashville)and found signs 60/40 or better for Kerry. This is something I NEVER saw coming. But we're still going to have a hell of a fight with the rural areas because they've got the guns, gays, and racial stuff there.
What happened to this site?
Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry has opened up a lead over President Bush in Minnesota, ...
That's funny, I spent this weekend calculating the , and I'm rather convinced Kerry has this by about 10 electoral votes (7-12), by sheer play of possibilities and probability based on number of outcomes... with the understanding that PA, Ohio, Florida and Minnesota are completely uncallable (50v50) Wisconsin I cast as 60v40 for Kerry (I live here; that's a pessimistic cast), Iowa as 70v30 Kerry and Nevada, Arkansas as 70v30 Bush (also pessimistic.)
Generally, Kerry takes PA to slam it home, and I'd add that to the "oh shit we're in trouble" pile, but frankly I don't feel there is an "oh shit we're in trouble" pile--in the strictest of statistical senses, too many piles of crap would have to hit one fan concurrently.
Not that that hasn't happened before...
NH may well go to Kerry, but I predict Bush will keep his 2000 states and gain the other razor-close states (Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin), giving him 296. Key factors: voters don't trust Kerry on foreign policy, and GOP GOTV will be even more successful than it was in 2002.
Details and 2000 data at pajamasphere.com/election2004/prediction.html
Characters Remaining:
Commenting by HaloScan
