I'MMA LET YOU FINISH
Sounds lovely
Sounds lovely
I used to work at Morgan, and I've spoken to Roach on a few occasions. If he says we're gonna have a rocky road ahead, you can pretty much bet your ass we will. He's one of the few people high up in that company that I still have any respect for.
I used to work at Morgan, and I've spoken to Roach on a few occasions. If he says we're gonna have a rocky road ahead, you can pretty much bet your ass we will. He's one of the few people high up in that company that I still have any respect for.
Aye Aye Aye,
This would be SO much more enjoyable if I did not live in this country.
I've said before that Bush is the Calvin Coolidge of this Era, some poor sap who follows him is going to be Hoover.
Fortunately, my non-perishable supply is going up.
In more bizarre news, Wendy's is bringing back their Spicy Chicken Sandwich in dedication to Dave Thomas
Big news huh?
And CBS tells us that The overwhelming majority of American's have evolved into M-0-R-O-N-S
I for one, welcome our coming overlords from whichever intelligent nation they will come from.
Aye Aye Aye,
This would be SO much more enjoyable if I did not live in this country.
I've said before that Bush is the Calvin Coolidge of this Era, some poor sap who follows him is going to be Hoover.
Fortunately, my non-perishable supply is going up.
In more bizarre news, Wendy's is bringing back their Spicy Chicken Sandwich in dedication to Dave Thomas
Big news huh?
And CBS tells us that The overwhelming majority of American's have evolved into M-0-R-O-N-S
I for one, welcome our coming overlords from whichever intelligent nation they will come from.
Funny, I was just saying to my husband I absolutely do not believe the rosy outlook for holiday shopping this year. People around me in general just don't seem to be into the orgy of consumerism this year. I think since I'm in a blue state it's a combination of post-election letdown, fears for the future, and job insecurity. Not to mention, here in the northeast, we'll have some big-ass heating bills this winter.
Funny, I was just saying to my husband I absolutely do not believe the rosy outlook for holiday shopping this year. People around me in general just don't seem to be into the orgy of consumerism this year. I think since I'm in a blue state it's a combination of post-election letdown, fears for the future, and job insecurity. Not to mention, here in the northeast, we'll have some big-ass heating bills this winter.
wow. that's pretty depressing. but no unexpected to those of us in the reality based community.
my question is why does wall street still support bush so much? not everyone is a ceo, and there are lots of folks who need a strong market and economy to make money. i just don't get it, anyone can see how bad for the economy bush is...is fascism more profitable?
myself, i'm glad i'm used to being poor. it'll make the coming depression that much easier.
wow. that's pretty depressing. but no unexpected to those of us in the reality based community.
my question is why does wall street still support bush so much? not everyone is a ceo, and there are lots of folks who need a strong market and economy to make money. i just don't get it, anyone can see how bad for the economy bush is...is fascism more profitable?
myself, i'm glad i'm used to being poor. it'll make the coming depression that much easier.
ah jesus i know theres a disaster looming, now the contours are taking on more definition. hard to be optimistic these days.
ah jesus i know theres a disaster looming, now the contours are taking on more definition. hard to be optimistic these days.
http://www.prisonplanet.com/
arti...04ourleader.htm
Article wtih pic of 'Our Leader'. Unholy, previously unbelievable. I saw all prez portraits, and only ONE had the flag as a background.
http://www.prisonplanet.com/
arti...04ourleader.htm
Article wtih pic of 'Our Leader'. Unholy, previously unbelievable. I saw all prez portraits, and only ONE had the flag as a background.
Well, it seems the voters haven't learned the (relatively) easy way....
Well, it seems the voters haven't learned the (relatively) easy way....
that could be what duhbya's banking on -- it's the perfect opportunity to 'starve the beast' and gut all of those onerous federal programs grover norquist complains about all the time.
that could be what duhbya's banking on -- it's the perfect opportunity to 'starve the beast' and gut all of those onerous federal programs grover norquist complains about all the time.
The economic armageddon prediction should come as no surprise. In the past 24 years, the repukes have purposefully run the national debt from below $1 trillion up thru 5 or 6
trillion or whereever it is now.
And there's no end in sight. The simpleton Bush Boy brags that he will cut the deficit in half in 5 years or whatever but he was the one who purposefully created the largest deficit (and debt) in the history of mankind. Hell, he and his mindless idiot advisors revel in the red numbers thinking that they are starving the government.
Which they are. Problem is, the idiots think that the upcoming crash will not affect them or can be avoided
by some kind of sleight of hand as it has been in the past. One might as well try and stop a tidal wave with a 6 foot dirt wall.
I realize all the above info is obvious to the most casual observer. I wonder why the Bush Boy can't figure it out?
The economic armageddon prediction should come as no surprise. In the past 24 years, the repukes have purposefully run the national debt from below $1 trillion up thru 5 or 6
trillion or whereever it is now.
And there's no end in sight. The simpleton Bush Boy brags that he will cut the deficit in half in 5 years or whatever but he was the one who purposefully created the largest deficit (and debt) in the history of mankind. Hell, he and his mindless idiot advisors revel in the red numbers thinking that they are starving the government.
Which they are. Problem is, the idiots think that the upcoming crash will not affect them or can be avoided
by some kind of sleight of hand as it has been in the past. One might as well try and stop a tidal wave with a 6 foot dirt wall.
I realize all the above info is obvious to the most casual observer. I wonder why the Bush Boy can't figure it out?
my question is why does wall street still support bush so much? not everyone is a ceo, and there are lots of folks who need a strong market and economy to make money. i just don't get it, anyone can see how bad for the economy bush is...is fascism more profitable?
I don't it's so much a question of Wall St. supporting Bush as rentiers supporting Bush.
In any event, my Xmas shopping this year will be exclusively in cash, even if I have to run back and forth between stores and ATM machines. No. Credit Card. Debt. EVER!.
my question is why does wall street still support bush so much? not everyone is a ceo, and there are lots of folks who need a strong market and economy to make money. i just don't get it, anyone can see how bad for the economy bush is...is fascism more profitable?
I don't it's so much a question of Wall St. supporting Bush as rentiers supporting Bush.
In any event, my Xmas shopping this year will be exclusively in cash, even if I have to run back and forth between stores and ATM machines. No. Credit Card. Debt. EVER!.
A smart, enterprising journalist would find Paul Volcker and get his thoughts on the matter.
A smart, enterprising journalist would find Paul Volcker and get his thoughts on the matter.
Attaturk, as regard your comment on morons and evolution, I add that this is a country where a 10 year old half-eaten grilled cheese sandwich went for $28,00 yesterday because it supposedly bore the image of the virgin mary.
Attaturk, as regard your comment on morons and evolution, I add that this is a country where a 10 year old half-eaten grilled cheese sandwich went for $28,00 yesterday because it supposedly bore the image of the virgin mary.
It sure looks like the middle class is in for a thumping. Fueled largely by the media and "school ratings", real estate is being marketed around schools. That has lead many folks to borrow as much as possible to live in communities with "good schools" for their kids.
Not a very good time to be a retiree either.
I don't see another solution on the horizon. The benefits to our exporters---the ones that are left-- certainly aren't going to be enough to offset the deficit. How anyone can think that the administration's policy of cutting taxes while spending like drunken fools can lead to anything other than disaster boggles the mind.
It sure looks like the middle class is in for a thumping. Fueled largely by the media and "school ratings", real estate is being marketed around schools. That has lead many folks to borrow as much as possible to live in communities with "good schools" for their kids.
Not a very good time to be a retiree either.
I don't see another solution on the horizon. The benefits to our exporters---the ones that are left-- certainly aren't going to be enough to offset the deficit. How anyone can think that the administration's policy of cutting taxes while spending like drunken fools can lead to anything other than disaster boggles the mind.
Hey, the one bright spot in all this is that it will happen on the repubs watch—NOT Kerry's. Not that the mouth-breathers will notice, though, I suppose...
Hey, the one bright spot in all this is that it will happen on the repubs watch—NOT Kerry's. Not that the mouth-breathers will notice, though, I suppose...
NPR reported today that the agricultural exports will equal imports this year and the prediction is that exports will continue to decline.
NPR reported today that the agricultural exports will equal imports this year and the prediction is that exports will continue to decline.
OT, but I heard Lou Dobbs last night repeatedly say that some low-level aide had inserted the provision about allowing committee chairmen to look at IRS tax returns. Hasn't it already been determined that Istook did it deliberately? I read so much about it in the last couple of days that I'm completely confused.
OT, but I heard Lou Dobbs last night repeatedly say that some low-level aide had inserted the provision about allowing committee chairmen to look at IRS tax returns. Hasn't it already been determined that Istook did it deliberately? I read so much about it in the last couple of days that I'm completely confused.
I'm not an economist, but I blow one on TV, but won't Alan's inflation solution also dramatically reduce the consumer consumption driving the economy? And then drive the economy into armegeddon as well?
I'm not an economist, but I blow one on TV, but won't Alan's inflation solution also dramatically reduce the consumer consumption driving the economy? And then drive the economy into armegeddon as well?
Fuck it, I save my ass off and Bush/Greenspan is just going to deflate everything I've worked for away.
Really, it makes no sense to do things "right" in this country. Go ahead, move out to Sprawlsburg. The local and state governments will underwrite it at the expense of the urban core. Get in major hock for a McMansion, Daddy Bush will inflate your debts away. Then buy that H2, Daddy Greenspan will give you cheap interest rates and the Rethughs and the Dimocrats (sorry, but that particular trollism is starting to make sense to a lefty like me, too) will take *my* taxes (including that part for SS) and spend it on an enormous military in order to keep gas cheap for you.
Steve Gilliard is truly right - stand and fight, don't run to Canada. But sometimes I just don't want to get up in the morning... what kind of insane place is this, pray tell?
Fuck it, I save my ass off and Bush/Greenspan is just going to deflate everything I've worked for away.
Really, it makes no sense to do things "right" in this country. Go ahead, move out to Sprawlsburg. The local and state governments will underwrite it at the expense of the urban core. Get in major hock for a McMansion, Daddy Bush will inflate your debts away. Then buy that H2, Daddy Greenspan will give you cheap interest rates and the Rethughs and the Dimocrats (sorry, but that particular trollism is starting to make sense to a lefty like me, too) will take *my* taxes (including that part for SS) and spend it on an enormous military in order to keep gas cheap for you.
Steve Gilliard is truly right - stand and fight, don't run to Canada. But sometimes I just don't want to get up in the morning... what kind of insane place is this, pray tell?
I'm pessimistic as hell most of the time, and having grown up in the inflation drenched '70's (those were the days, my friend) and lived through more than one boom 'n' bust cycle in Texas (rode the Austin real estate market up and down like a crazed tiger running over a roller coaster rail more than once), I'm always disappointed when the absolute worst doesn't happen....
so I'm ready to accept this dire prediction at face value. But being an "economics" challenged type, and always a willing student of those wiser and more learned than me, I have a question:
any clue what this is based on? I'd prefer something concrete and even dense with economist jargon, over this guy's reputation (which I accept as sound and giving him the gravitas to be worthy of my attention).
Thanks.
I'm pessimistic as hell most of the time, and having grown up in the inflation drenched '70's (those were the days, my friend) and lived through more than one boom 'n' bust cycle in Texas (rode the Austin real estate market up and down like a crazed tiger running over a roller coaster rail more than once), I'm always disappointed when the absolute worst doesn't happen....
so I'm ready to accept this dire prediction at face value. But being an "economics" challenged type, and always a willing student of those wiser and more learned than me, I have a question:
any clue what this is based on? I'd prefer something concrete and even dense with economist jargon, over this guy's reputation (which I accept as sound and giving him the gravitas to be worthy of my attention).
Thanks.
For years, Krugman has opined that our public debt is deliberately being exploded to trigger a financial crisis. Then the way out will be to cut Social Security and Medicare.
I can just see the crocodile tears from W: "Its such a shame we have to cut these programs, but hard times require sacrifice...etc"
For years, Krugman has opined that our public debt is deliberately being exploded to trigger a financial crisis. Then the way out will be to cut Social Security and Medicare.
I can just see the crocodile tears from W: "Its such a shame we have to cut these programs, but hard times require sacrifice...etc"
The FT in London did ask Volker. He was very diplomatic but it did not take a genius to realise that he saw the US economy was rapidly going the way of the pear.
The FT in London did ask Volker. He was very diplomatic but it did not take a genius to realise that he saw the US economy was rapidly going the way of the pear.
Clearly this is all Clinton's fault.
Clearly this is all Clinton's fault.
Be sure to tune in for our next episode: Greetings from Moron America, or Don't blame me, I voted for the one with a brain!
Be sure to tune in for our next episode: Greetings from Moron America, or Don't blame me, I voted for the one with a brain!
Hey, Robert, drop me an email if you get a chance...
Hey, Robert, drop me an email if you get a chance...
But did Roach have anything to say about whether Scott Peterson should get the death penalty, and whether Britney'ws marriage will last?
But did Roach have anything to say about whether Scott Peterson should get the death penalty, and whether Britney'ws marriage will last?
Hey, Atrios, use this chart instead:
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/...om/b?
s=USDEUR=X
Down down down.
why does wall street still support bush so much?
There's always a short-term profit to be made somewhere. (Or a profit from short-selling.) But I get the feeling that people in the buy-and-hold business (or even bond traders) are feeling more nervous now than at any point since the 1970s.
Hey, Atrios, use this chart instead:
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/...om/b?
s=USDEUR=X
Down down down.
why does wall street still support bush so much?
There's always a short-term profit to be made somewhere. (Or a profit from short-selling.) But I get the feeling that people in the buy-and-hold business (or even bond traders) are feeling more nervous now than at any point since the 1970s.
As I've said before, everyone here should get their own economic house in order as much as possible. It's going to be a bumpy ride the likes of which you younger folks on here have not previously experienced. Seems America always needs to learn its lessons the hard way...
on another note, what am I offered for this potato chip bearing the image of the Dalai Lama?
As I've said before, everyone here should get their own economic house in order as much as possible. It's going to be a bumpy ride the likes of which you younger folks on here have not previously experienced. Seems America always needs to learn its lessons the hard way...
on another note, what am I offered for this potato chip bearing the image of the Dalai Lama?
Job opportunities increase...
McCain says US needs 50,000 more troops.
Of course recruiters can't even fulfill present quotas, so I wonder where they are going to get the "volunteers"?
Job opportunities increase...
McCain says US needs 50,000 more troops.
Of course recruiters can't even fulfill present quotas, so I wonder where they are going to get the "volunteers"?
any clue what this is based on?
My view is that the American consumer is completely unprepared for the competition for finite resources coming from places like China and India . . .
any clue what this is based on?
My view is that the American consumer is completely unprepared for the competition for finite resources coming from places like China and India . . .
Hey, I never thought of that before... We don't have to start the draft; if the economy tanks, there will be lots of young people unable to afford college or support themselves. Even with a war going on, lots of kids will join up just to have a chance to better themselves. Brilliant!
Hey, I never thought of that before... We don't have to start the draft; if the economy tanks, there will be lots of young people unable to afford college or support themselves. Even with a war going on, lots of kids will join up just to have a chance to better themselves. Brilliant!
lilnemo is 100% right.
It's hard to say I'm selling everything I can (stocks, bonds, etc.) but read and heed. EVERYONE should get their own economic house in order as much as possible. It's going to be a bumpy ride the likes of which you younger folks on here have not previously experienced.
Pay off as much debt as possible. Reduce your monthly expenses as much as you can. Stop buying ridiculous BULLSHIT crap made in china by slave laborers that AMERICANS employ.
An economic collapse will hurt everyone. Just depends on how much you want to get hurt is all.
lilnemo is 100% right.
It's hard to say I'm selling everything I can (stocks, bonds, etc.) but read and heed. EVERYONE should get their own economic house in order as much as possible. It's going to be a bumpy ride the likes of which you younger folks on here have not previously experienced.
Pay off as much debt as possible. Reduce your monthly expenses as much as you can. Stop buying ridiculous BULLSHIT crap made in china by slave laborers that AMERICANS employ.
An economic collapse will hurt everyone. Just depends on how much you want to get hurt is all.
The talk of a robust holiday season seems pretty unfounded. I've had to cut back on eating out this year just to keep gas in my car, and my xmas shopping is going to be extra lean this year for the same reason... Bet there are millions of others facing the same thing.
The talk of a robust holiday season seems pretty unfounded. I've had to cut back on eating out this year just to keep gas in my car, and my xmas shopping is going to be extra lean this year for the same reason... Bet there are millions of others facing the same thing.
What's the use of having interest be tax free if the banks don't pay much interest? Why, I remember the "good old days" of 1978-1979. Anyone with some loose cash made 10-15% in CD's. Of course only the rich had any "loose cash"
If inflation eats up (value does not beat inflation) your Privatized SS Acct, who picks up the slack?
If your investments tank because the entire economy is down the toilet, who picks up the slack?
It ain't the fact people are ill-equipped to invest intelligently; its the fact that the amount most can invest does not provide the cushion to ride the bad times out.
What's the use of having interest be tax free if the banks don't pay much interest? Why, I remember the "good old days" of 1978-1979. Anyone with some loose cash made 10-15% in CD's. Of course only the rich had any "loose cash"
If inflation eats up (value does not beat inflation) your Privatized SS Acct, who picks up the slack?
If your investments tank because the entire economy is down the toilet, who picks up the slack?
It ain't the fact people are ill-equipped to invest intelligently; its the fact that the amount most can invest does not provide the cushion to ride the bad times out.
Gee, this is surprising.
No, it's not. 
Gee, this is surprising.
No, it's not.
You know, I remarked to Mr. Tena last night that I was worried about a Depression. He said: "You should be."
You know, I remarked to Mr. Tena last night that I was worried about a Depression. He said: "You should be."
How would one go about getting their economic house in order? Pay off credit cards & car loans? Saving cash won't help if the currency is devalued... Should I find some gold and/or Euros?
How would one go about getting their economic house in order? Pay off credit cards & car loans? Saving cash won't help if the currency is devalued... Should I find some gold and/or Euros?
Robert, drop me an e-mail at fester986 aT Yahoo (little period) COM and I can give you a good description of Steven Roach's worries... basically he is saying that the US credit card bill is coming due sooner rather than later, and the only question now is how the debt is worked out; recession to reduce expenses and increase savings or a massive cut in the value of the dollar so as to keep the creditors happy with minimal payments.
Robert, drop me an e-mail at fester986 aT Yahoo (little period) COM and I can give you a good description of Steven Roach's worries... basically he is saying that the US credit card bill is coming due sooner rather than later, and the only question now is how the debt is worked out; recession to reduce expenses and increase savings or a massive cut in the value of the dollar so as to keep the creditors happy with minimal payments.
Steve-Forget gold and/or euros. I have a ten-year old partially eaten beefsteak that has the image of Laci Peterson on it. Interested?
Steve-Forget gold and/or euros. I have a ten-year old partially eaten beefsteak that has the image of Laci Peterson on it. Interested?
Gold may be an option but then again, if gold is "worth" $1000 "dollars" and the "dollar" is worth about 10% of what it used to be, what is the worth of gold except in and of itself?
Can you use gold to buy food? Sure, but if people see that it takes 1 oz. of gold to buy a months worth of groceries, how much time before gold becomes so scarce that people are willing to kill for it?
Prepare for the downward spiral folks. It won't get any better. Just be on the lookout for when it gets worse. I've been warning on KOS for 2 years now about the impending collapse (as we all have here and elsewhere) but no one is listening.
Gold may be an option but then again, if gold is "worth" $1000 "dollars" and the "dollar" is worth about 10% of what it used to be, what is the worth of gold except in and of itself?
Can you use gold to buy food? Sure, but if people see that it takes 1 oz. of gold to buy a months worth of groceries, how much time before gold becomes so scarce that people are willing to kill for it?
Prepare for the downward spiral folks. It won't get any better. Just be on the lookout for when it gets worse. I've been warning on KOS for 2 years now about the impending collapse (as we all have here and elsewhere) but no one is listening.
Jeez, some people have been talking about this for a few weeks already. Where have you been?
Here.
Jeez, some people have been talking about this for a few weeks already. Where have you been?
Here.
It's not just about buying crap...housing, healthcare, and education prices are what's sinking us. So, what are some good careers to have during a depression? Plumber? Bill collector?
It's not just about buying crap...housing, healthcare, and education prices are what's sinking us. So, what are some good careers to have during a depression? Plumber? Bill collector?
So, what are some good careers to have during a depression? Plumber? Bill collector?
seattle slacker | Email | Homepage | 11.23.04 - 9:06 am |..............................Thief.
So, what are some good careers to have during a depression? Plumber? Bill collector?
seattle slacker | Email | Homepage | 11.23.04 - 9:06 am |..............................Thief.
OT but look here. Now the Christian Taliban wants to rewrite history at the Lincoln Memorial.
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?...d=273668&
page=2 looky here.
OT but look here. Now the Christian Taliban wants to rewrite history at the Lincoln Memorial.
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?...d=273668&
page=2 looky here.
So, what are some good careers to have during a depression
If this depression is like former ones, selling booze and showing movies, I think.
So, what are some good careers to have during a depression
If this depression is like former ones, selling booze and showing movies, I think.
Spinoza, is $28,000 dollars enough?
Spinoza, is $28,000 dollars enough?
fester986 - I'd bet massive cuts in the value of the dollar to keep creditors happy with minimal payments
That's how this bunch works.
God my husband is prescient. He decided we were going to pay off our mortgage and we did it last month. Of course, won't help if we can't pay the taxes if the bottom falls out...
fester986 - I'd bet massive cuts in the value of the dollar to keep creditors happy with minimal payments
That's how this bunch works.
God my husband is prescient. He decided we were going to pay off our mortgage and we did it last month. Of course, won't help if we can't pay the taxes if the bottom falls out...
Spinoza, is $28,000 dollars enough?
Can I get it in krugerrands?
Spinoza, is $28,000 dollars enough?
Can I get it in krugerrands?
After 9/11, the President made commercials telling us to buy things, now he wants us to save. Is that a flip-flop?
After 9/11, the President made commercials telling us to buy things, now he wants us to save. Is that a flip-flop?
Robert,
The best in depth analysis I have seen on how truly screwed we are can be found in this informative paper on these topics: The US as a Net Debtor: The Sustainability of the US External Imbalances by Nouriel Roubini - Stern School of Business, NYU and Brad Setser - Global Economic Governance Programme, University College, Oxford.
Atrios, Brad Delong posted this link a few days ago, calling this paper essential reading. I pushed through it, and I have to agree. If the authors are correct, the forces driving these financial imbalances to resolve themselves are going to define the next decade.
It's about 60 pages, but its not too hard for an interested lay reader.
Robert,
The best in depth analysis I have seen on how truly screwed we are can be found in this informative paper on these topics: The US as a Net Debtor: The Sustainability of the US External Imbalances by Nouriel Roubini - Stern School of Business, NYU and Brad Setser - Global Economic Governance Programme, University College, Oxford.
Atrios, Brad Delong posted this link a few days ago, calling this paper essential reading. I pushed through it, and I have to agree. If the authors are correct, the forces driving these financial imbalances to resolve themselves are going to define the next decade.
It's about 60 pages, but its not too hard for an interested lay reader.
Well, this sucks. It's not unexpected, but it does suck.
But look on the bright side: yeah, it's going to suck for all of us, but the vast majority of the me, me, ME voters who have put these idiots and thieves in office are about to get a good up-close and personal look at the no-social-safety-net "utopia" they've been clamoring for for the past 25 years. Because you KNOW that Bush will "manage" a depression almost as well as Hoover did.
Somehow I don't think they'll find shantytowns all that appealing when they're the ones living in them.
The other plus: rapacious financial institutions are gonna lose their asses. Foreclosing on homes etc. won't keep them afloat, not if everyone is in foreclosure and no one is buying. Ditto that for virtually all monopolistic rapacious corporations. These asshats thought it was a good idea to kill the goose that laid the golden egg by strip-mining the US economy; they're about to find out that people who don't make any money can't buy your product or service. (Somehow I doubt that GM will be able to make up for a loss of sales here by selling more in the third world, where people make $2.50 an hour.)
So yeah, it sucks. But we have to learn to take enjoyment from disaster where we can find it.
Well, this sucks. It's not unexpected, but it does suck.
But look on the bright side: yeah, it's going to suck for all of us, but the vast majority of the me, me, ME voters who have put these idiots and thieves in office are about to get a good up-close and personal look at the no-social-safety-net "utopia" they've been clamoring for for the past 25 years. Because you KNOW that Bush will "manage" a depression almost as well as Hoover did.
Somehow I don't think they'll find shantytowns all that appealing when they're the ones living in them.
The other plus: rapacious financial institutions are gonna lose their asses. Foreclosing on homes etc. won't keep them afloat, not if everyone is in foreclosure and no one is buying. Ditto that for virtually all monopolistic rapacious corporations. These asshats thought it was a good idea to kill the goose that laid the golden egg by strip-mining the US economy; they're about to find out that people who don't make any money can't buy your product or service. (Somehow I doubt that GM will be able to make up for a loss of sales here by selling more in the third world, where people make $2.50 an hour.)
So yeah, it sucks. But we have to learn to take enjoyment from disaster where we can find it.
Why would gold act as a hedge in a [deflationary] economic downturn? I have to imagine that interest bearing euro deposits are a more direct and efficient hedge against the dollar. (Or buying puts on the dollar or US Treasury bonds)
But why hasn't Roach's opinion been reflected in both the long dated Eurodollar and bond futures market values (fwd eurodollar rates, even very far out, aren't MUCH higher than current rates)? Surely Morgan Stanley's chief economist has some communication with Morgan Stanley's prop interest rate trading group? Surely other wall street economists are onto the same variables and forecasts? Where would Roach perceive the failure in the many ordinary market forecasting and hedging mechanisms?
Why would gold act as a hedge in a [deflationary] economic downturn? I have to imagine that interest bearing euro deposits are a more direct and efficient hedge against the dollar. (Or buying puts on the dollar or US Treasury bonds)
But why hasn't Roach's opinion been reflected in both the long dated Eurodollar and bond futures market values (fwd eurodollar rates, even very far out, aren't MUCH higher than current rates)? Surely Morgan Stanley's chief economist has some communication with Morgan Stanley's prop interest rate trading group? Surely other wall street economists are onto the same variables and forecasts? Where would Roach perceive the failure in the many ordinary market forecasting and hedging mechanisms?
what are some investment stategies for inflation.
If I recall the 70s right, the smart guys were buying up houses on credit and paying off the debt in defalted dollars while the value of the houses went up as the dollar went down.
I sure wouldn't sell stocks just to get to cash. It's not like the depression's *deflation*.
Another stategy is to get to "blue chips" or better yet - utiilites and ride it out fully invested.
Other inflation investment ideas?
what are some investment stategies for inflation.
If I recall the 70s right, the smart guys were buying up houses on credit and paying off the debt in defalted dollars while the value of the houses went up as the dollar went down.
I sure wouldn't sell stocks just to get to cash. It's not like the depression's *deflation*.
Another stategy is to get to "blue chips" or better yet - utiilites and ride it out fully invested.
Other inflation investment ideas?
Out and About (off-topic):
Istook initially said it was no big deal (which means he knew about it). He's now saying he didn't know about it--which means he was lying in the first place.
Let the dollar tank. This means imports become more expensive, and jobs get repatriated. The Chinese are faced with either letting the yuan float--making their goods more expensive here--or also having to pay more for their oil imports. Similar results in India.
Bush "solves" the problem of the U.S. economy, except for those firms dependent on importing or exporting, whose finances will be saved when they no longer offer health insurance to their workers and keep the savings.
No need to cut SS or Medicare--the only people who will collect it are those who can afford to live that long.
Voila! Economic survival.
Out and About (off-topic):
Istook initially said it was no big deal (which means he knew about it). He's now saying he didn't know about it--which means he was lying in the first place.
Let the dollar tank. This means imports become more expensive, and jobs get repatriated. The Chinese are faced with either letting the yuan float--making their goods more expensive here--or also having to pay more for their oil imports. Similar results in India.
Bush "solves" the problem of the U.S. economy, except for those firms dependent on importing or exporting, whose finances will be saved when they no longer offer health insurance to their workers and keep the savings.
No need to cut SS or Medicare--the only people who will collect it are those who can afford to live that long.
Voila! Economic survival.
Thanks, Atrios, I had already put 50% of our life savings overseas. Looks like I was too optimistic by half.
Thanks, Atrios, I had already put 50% of our life savings overseas. Looks like I was too optimistic by half.
Jennifer,
I also used to work for Morgan. I preferred Barton Biggs to Roach for the longest time but then all of the sudden Biggs started sounded old and bearish and Roach sounded realistic and bearish.
Yeah, euro rates aren't that much higher than the dollar but with euro appreciation they are significantly higher. And the research team at Morgan has been quietly talking about this for several months. It's only now that it is coming to the public's attention as CNBC had a report on it a few nights ago.
Typical of the media to be so behind. But here is what will happen: CNBC had there little show about it, and the traders will srping a trap on the Euro bulls. There will be a price correction and everyone will forget about it for a few weeks. Except: the current account deficit isn't going anywhere and some day, very soon, the Asian Central Bankers will simply say: no more.
Jennifer,
I also used to work for Morgan. I preferred Barton Biggs to Roach for the longest time but then all of the sudden Biggs started sounded old and bearish and Roach sounded realistic and bearish.
Yeah, euro rates aren't that much higher than the dollar but with euro appreciation they are significantly higher. And the research team at Morgan has been quietly talking about this for several months. It's only now that it is coming to the public's attention as CNBC had a report on it a few nights ago.
Typical of the media to be so behind. But here is what will happen: CNBC had there little show about it, and the traders will srping a trap on the Euro bulls. There will be a price correction and everyone will forget about it for a few weeks. Except: the current account deficit isn't going anywhere and some day, very soon, the Asian Central Bankers will simply say: no more.
Apropos of the above thread, Thersites and I will cut back.
He will sit on a spike. I will sit on Thersites. Two spikes would be an extravagance.
Apropos of the above thread, Thersites and I will cut back.
He will sit on a spike. I will sit on Thersites. Two spikes would be an extravagance.
chuck, I've been putting money in a coffee can under the bed for years. I really think that's going to be the best strategy.
Christ. Wake me when this is over.
A.
chuck, I've been putting money in a coffee can under the bed for years. I really think that's going to be the best strategy.
Christ. Wake me when this is over.
A.
Is the missing chart a broken link, or is it a deliberate comment on dollar values going forward?
Is the missing chart a broken link, or is it a deliberate comment on dollar values going forward?
This scenario, even if the worst case does not play out, is a potential shock to the nation that will make 9/11 pale by comparison.
A personal anecdote by way of illustration:
My wife and I were in the technology industry since the early '80's and managed to send our kids to college, take nice vacations and otherwise live a decent middle class life. The technology sector implodes and we find ourselves both out of work and the technology employment market looking bleak (understatement).
We had a small amount of liquid savings, equity in our house, and an "average" amount of consumer debt (i.e. we did not buy the biggest/baddest house that we could have afforded, new cars every four years etc.). Still we were looking into the economic abyss since rekindling careers in technology at our age would be a futile attempt at swimming against the currents of outsourcing and downsizing(and needless to say we tried...).
Our only alternative, after emerging from six months of deep depression, was to sell the house, pay off the bills (as much as possible) and dramatically cut back on lifestyle costs to a less than "recently graduated from college" level. That, and begin to think about how we avoid working at Walmart for the rest of our lives.
We are now living in Florida, back in school, and working on second careers. We consider ourselves some of the lucky few that get a second chance, but only after a gut wrenching, soul searhing and painful couple of years, and of course through the grace of the almighty.
Our kids were out of the house during this time so they did not have to witness (directly) their parent's depression, thoughts of suicide, etc. In a nation with very little social safety net left (and getting smaller all the time) many people may not be so lucky.
The economic scenario described by Roach will have this story repeated in millions of middle class homes throughout the nation. We are Christian Democrats and the war against BushCo policies is very real and their consequences even more so.
I am optimistic that as a nation, and as individuals, we will emerge with a stronger/fairer democracy; but not without a significant amount of "blood on the highway". We need a sense of real community now, perhaps more than anytime in the nation's relatively short history.
This scenario, even if the worst case does not play out, is a potential shock to the nation that will make 9/11 pale by comparison.
A personal anecdote by way of illustration:
My wife and I were in the technology industry since the early '80's and managed to send our kids to college, take nice vacations and otherwise live a decent middle class life. The technology sector implodes and we find ourselves both out of work and the technology employment market looking bleak (understatement).
We had a small amount of liquid savings, equity in our house, and an "average" amount of consumer debt (i.e. we did not buy the biggest/baddest house that we could have afforded, new cars every four years etc.). Still we were looking into the economic abyss since rekindling careers in technology at our age would be a futile attempt at swimming against the currents of outsourcing and downsizing(and needless to say we tried...).
Our only alternative, after emerging from six months of deep depression, was to sell the house, pay off the bills (as much as possible) and dramatically cut back on lifestyle costs to a less than "recently graduated from college" level. That, and begin to think about how we avoid working at Walmart for the rest of our lives.
We are now living in Florida, back in school, and working on second careers. We consider ourselves some of the lucky few that get a second chance, but only after a gut wrenching, soul searhing and painful couple of years, and of course through the grace of the almighty.
Our kids were out of the house during this time so they did not have to witness (directly) their parent's depression, thoughts of suicide, etc. In a nation with very little social safety net left (and getting smaller all the time) many people may not be so lucky.
The economic scenario described by Roach will have this story repeated in millions of middle class homes throughout the nation. We are Christian Democrats and the war against BushCo policies is very real and their consequences even more so.
I am optimistic that as a nation, and as individuals, we will emerge with a stronger/fairer democracy; but not without a significant amount of "blood on the highway". We need a sense of real community now, perhaps more than anytime in the nation's relatively short history.
We don't have to start the draft; if the economy tanks, there will be lots of young people unable to afford college or support themselves. Even with a war going on, lots of kids will join up just to have a chance to better themselves. Brilliant!
Oh, I've seen that coming a mile off. Pell grants are being slashed, so the main route to a college education for low- and middle-income families is through the Guard and reserve. That way you get your 'draft' without having all those pesky edumacated young people who sow dissention in the ranks, like they did in Vietnam.
From the land of anecdote: a bunch of my former colleagues back in the Old Country have said that they won't be attending any conferences in the US for the foreseeable future, in spite of the exchange rates. They don't want to be treated like shit on arriving in the States. I don't blame them. And I suspect the feeling around any number of professional communities is widespread. Scientists, academics, technology workers... they're all organising alternative conferences in Europe for next year, rather than set foot the US.
We don't have to start the draft; if the economy tanks, there will be lots of young people unable to afford college or support themselves. Even with a war going on, lots of kids will join up just to have a chance to better themselves. Brilliant!
Oh, I've seen that coming a mile off. Pell grants are being slashed, so the main route to a college education for low- and middle-income families is through the Guard and reserve. That way you get your 'draft' without having all those pesky edumacated young people who sow dissention in the ranks, like they did in Vietnam.
From the land of anecdote: a bunch of my former colleagues back in the Old Country have said that they won't be attending any conferences in the US for the foreseeable future, in spite of the exchange rates. They don't want to be treated like shit on arriving in the States. I don't blame them. And I suspect the feeling around any number of professional communities is widespread. Scientists, academics, technology workers... they're all organising alternative conferences in Europe for next year, rather than set foot the US.
If I borrow a dollar from you today,
and then pay it back in 30 years, am I not paying you pennies on the dollar after inflation? Simply, 30 year bonds
are a scam! We have a three trillion dollar debt that get's slimmed and trimmed each year by inflation.
Greenspan has little to do with that,
inflation exists regardless of the dollars strength.
Roach has been predicting Armageddon for 20 years.
It's funny that this board only now jumps on his rap. Now why is that?
Is it because your looking for negativity. Desperately searching for anything that makes Bush look bad?
Skip it. Bushman is about to get massive, Mt. Rushmore style credit in the Middle East. For cleaning up Iraq, and giving the Palestinians a state. All done by the end of 2005. Giving him two years to bask and enjoy the peace dividend.
In managing your political expectations, you must include these facts. Busting on Bush and focusing on economic armageddon scenarios will get you nowhere.
You'll end up the loon on the corner,
waving your research in the air while the parade cruises on by.
If I borrow a dollar from you today,
and then pay it back in 30 years, am I not paying you pennies on the dollar after inflation? Simply, 30 year bonds
are a scam! We have a three trillion dollar debt that get's slimmed and trimmed each year by inflation.
Greenspan has little to do with that,
inflation exists regardless of the dollars strength.
Roach has been predicting Armageddon for 20 years.
It's funny that this board only now jumps on his rap. Now why is that?
Is it because your looking for negativity. Desperately searching for anything that makes Bush look bad?
Skip it. Bushman is about to get massive, Mt. Rushmore style credit in the Middle East. For cleaning up Iraq, and giving the Palestinians a state. All done by the end of 2005. Giving him two years to bask and enjoy the peace dividend.
In managing your political expectations, you must include these facts. Busting on Bush and focusing on economic armageddon scenarios will get you nowhere.
You'll end up the loon on the corner,
waving your research in the air while the parade cruises on by.
sean-paul - were you suggesting like this statement today from a Chinese Central Bank official to FT? link goes to AFP story at Yahoo. includes photo of someone counting 100 yuan notes with Mao's photo on them.
sean-paul - were you suggesting like this statement today from a Chinese Central Bank official to FT? link goes to AFP story at Yahoo. includes photo of someone counting 100 yuan notes with Mao's photo on them.
Another stategy is to get to "blue chips" or better yet - utiilites
Utility stocks USED to be for widows and orphans, but these days, one needs to be very careful which utility stocks one buys. Thanks to California and Enron, as well as a miguided plan to deregulate electricity sales and force transmission owners into regional organizations with outrageous costs, one can't automatically assume that a utility stock will be safe.
Another stategy is to get to "blue chips" or better yet - utiilites
Utility stocks USED to be for widows and orphans, but these days, one needs to be very careful which utility stocks one buys. Thanks to California and Enron, as well as a miguided plan to deregulate electricity sales and force transmission owners into regional organizations with outrageous costs, one can't automatically assume that a utility stock will be safe.
If I borrow a dollar from you today,
and then pay it back in 30 years, am I not paying you pennies on the dollar after inflation?
I guess it depends on the rate of interest and the rate of inflation, doesn't it?
If I borrow a dollar from you today,
and then pay it back in 30 years, am I not paying you pennies on the dollar after inflation?
I guess it depends on the rate of interest and the rate of inflation, doesn't it?
Krugman and Roach agree on our economy, its heading the way of Argentina. And the little things that are happening, i.e. countries aren't trading in oil in dollars as much anymore, they're moving to the Euro.
Bush Fiddles While American Burns.
Krugman and Roach agree on our economy, its heading the way of Argentina. And the little things that are happening, i.e. countries aren't trading in oil in dollars as much anymore, they're moving to the Euro.
Bush Fiddles While American Burns.
rob - yeah, and then, the magic beanstalk will sprout and overnight will grow thousands of feet up through the clouds....
rob - yeah, and then, the magic beanstalk will sprout and overnight will grow thousands of feet up through the clouds....
As far as "getting out of this country", I don't see any reason for optimism that one can escape the economic cataclysm that BushCo is brewing up. If the US economy tanks, so will the world economy.
As far as "getting out of this country", I don't see any reason for optimism that one can escape the economic cataclysm that BushCo is brewing up. If the US economy tanks, so will the world economy.
, very soon, the Asian Central Bankers will simply say: no more.
And then, I predict, the Treasury will default. Provocatively, deliberately.
, very soon, the Asian Central Bankers will simply say: no more.
And then, I predict, the Treasury will default. Provocatively, deliberately.
Jennifer - I agree - I was just saying the same thing on the thread above - you can't run away from a significant economic crash. If the economy sinks here, it will send shockwaves through all the markets.
Last time, the world was in the Depression together. We're more interdependent now than we were then.
And this is just exactly what OBL aimed for - to collapse our economy. Were he and George separated at birth or something?
Jennifer - I agree - I was just saying the same thing on the thread above - you can't run away from a significant economic crash. If the economy sinks here, it will send shockwaves through all the markets.
Last time, the world was in the Depression together. We're more interdependent now than we were then.
And this is just exactly what OBL aimed for - to collapse our economy. Were he and George separated at birth or something?
Hec,
That's the point.
Jenn,
Get out those rose tinted specs
of worried one. The world does not dance to the drumbeat of the Prozac sucking worrymongers.
It's marched to the beat of those with strong will. You can jump on Roaches tired old predictions. A wee late to that party I might add, but there's a mad renaissence coming.
Given China's growth, and our slim and trim corporations, there is a possibilty that the economy kicks ass.
recessions and such are not as predictable as you might think.
Remember, Mr. Roach is in a rather "dismal science." paid to be wrong!
Hec,
That's the point.
Jenn,
Get out those rose tinted specs
of worried one. The world does not dance to the drumbeat of the Prozac sucking worrymongers.
It's marched to the beat of those with strong will. You can jump on Roaches tired old predictions. A wee late to that party I might add, but there's a mad renaissence coming.
Given China's growth, and our slim and trim corporations, there is a possibilty that the economy kicks ass.
recessions and such are not as predictable as you might think.
Remember, Mr. Roach is in a rather "dismal science." paid to be wrong!
Another rather important point is that as the US dollar depreciates against the Canadian dollar this will cause an increase in the costs of the raw materials and energy the US economy brings in from Canada. Given that this is not an inconsequential amount of raw materials and energy (both oil and hydroelectric) for the US economy this will in turn cause a ripple throughout the US economy, so simply figuring a lower dollar will return those jobs from overseas is not a given at all.
I realize it is hard for most Americans to believe that they can be severely economically damaged given the last 60 years of being a superpower, but it is coming. Ironically enough, Canada is better positioned to absorb the impacts of this than most of the rest of the world thanks to the past decade of deficit elimination and debt repayment.
I strongly suspect that over the next few years those that cursed the name of the Finance Minister now Prime Minister for his economic focus on reducing debt instead of fresh spending will be blessing him for it. This is not to say Canada will not be hurt by the US economic collapse, it will, but it will be far less disastrous than it would have been oh say back in 1993. Back the Canada was running much the same deficit and debt to GDP ratio that GWB has reintroduced to America after all of Clinton's hard work. At that time Canada was one step away from IMF intervention to restore fiscal sanity. Canada was being described in the international financial community as a country with a third world economy. Now, Canada has the best financial track record of the G7. Pity Bush has undone the tremendous work Clinton did to put America along a similar path for long term fiscal health.
Another rather important point is that as the US dollar depreciates against the Canadian dollar this will cause an increase in the costs of the raw materials and energy the US economy brings in from Canada. Given that this is not an inconsequential amount of raw materials and energy (both oil and hydroelectric) for the US economy this will in turn cause a ripple throughout the US economy, so simply figuring a lower dollar will return those jobs from overseas is not a given at all.
I realize it is hard for most Americans to believe that they can be severely economically damaged given the last 60 years of being a superpower, but it is coming. Ironically enough, Canada is better positioned to absorb the impacts of this than most of the rest of the world thanks to the past decade of deficit elimination and debt repayment.
I strongly suspect that over the next few years those that cursed the name of the Finance Minister now Prime Minister for his economic focus on reducing debt instead of fresh spending will be blessing him for it. This is not to say Canada will not be hurt by the US economic collapse, it will, but it will be far less disastrous than it would have been oh say back in 1993. Back the Canada was running much the same deficit and debt to GDP ratio that GWB has reintroduced to America after all of Clinton's hard work. At that time Canada was one step away from IMF intervention to restore fiscal sanity. Canada was being described in the international financial community as a country with a third world economy. Now, Canada has the best financial track record of the G7. Pity Bush has undone the tremendous work Clinton did to put America along a similar path for long term fiscal health.
And the sky fell!
And the earth cracked open!
And, and, the Democrats were happy.
C'mom people, pull your noggets out of your tushies.
You remind me of Bush this summer, getting four year old data and scaring the shit outr me with it.
Futile at best.
Next!
And the sky fell!
And the earth cracked open!
And, and, the Democrats were happy.
C'mom people, pull your noggets out of your tushies.
You remind me of Bush this summer, getting four year old data and scaring the shit outr me with it.
Futile at best.
Next!
and our slim and trim corporations
and our slim and trim corporations
we see now that rob belongs to the "we make our own reality" willing it to creation crew.
And for those that think that a yuan revaluation will balance US-China trade, I don't think so. check some of the trade numbers for China that I've posted for the first 8 months of 2004. The countries that have trade surpluses with China actually produce what the Chinese want. The US doesn't.
And the US won't produce what China produces, even if prices rise again. The factories just don't exist. And you'd have to build not just the finishing factories, but factories for all of the components as well. Basically rebuilding entire industries, which isn't practical, except for a developing third-world country.
And your "slim and trim corporations", rob, might go out of existence simply by a rise in interest rates and inflation and devaluation of the dollar wiping out the productivity advantage keeping US companies from losing their competitive edge by under-market interest and inflation.
we see now that rob belongs to the "we make our own reality" willing it to creation crew.
And for those that think that a yuan revaluation will balance US-China trade, I don't think so. check some of the trade numbers for China that I've posted for the first 8 months of 2004. The countries that have trade surpluses with China actually produce what the Chinese want. The US doesn't.
And the US won't produce what China produces, even if prices rise again. The factories just don't exist. And you'd have to build not just the finishing factories, but factories for all of the components as well. Basically rebuilding entire industries, which isn't practical, except for a developing third-world country.
And your "slim and trim corporations", rob, might go out of existence simply by a rise in interest rates and inflation and devaluation of the dollar wiping out the productivity advantage keeping US companies from losing their competitive edge by under-market interest and inflation.
hey rob, that sand is nice and comfortable with your head lodged firmly into it...Oh wait, that's not sand.
hey rob, that sand is nice and comfortable with your head lodged firmly into it...Oh wait, that's not sand.
Tom - Daai Tou Laam:
Yes, that is exactly what I was suggesting.
Here is a link about the Russian CB and here is a link from the FT about China telling us to get our economic house in order.
Tom - Daai Tou Laam:
Yes, that is exactly what I was suggesting.
Here is a link about the Russian CB and here is a link from the FT about China telling us to get our economic house in order.
A friend of mine, back in the '80s, whose academic specialty was media finance, said back then that the best thing you can do in the face of a crash is to get a hold of everything you can on credit, squirrel it away, and then dare 'em to come and repossess it.
When this crash comes, there'll be so many defaults there won't be enough repossessors to collect all the stuff, there won't be any place to put it, there won't be anyone buying it. So stock up now...it's gonna be a long winter...
A friend of mine, back in the '80s, whose academic specialty was media finance, said back then that the best thing you can do in the face of a crash is to get a hold of everything you can on credit, squirrel it away, and then dare 'em to come and repossess it.
When this crash comes, there'll be so many defaults there won't be enough repossessors to collect all the stuff, there won't be any place to put it, there won't be anyone buying it. So stock up now...it's gonna be a long winter...
http://www.businessweek.com/1997...43/
b3550104.htm
FWIW here's a 7-year old piece on roach and biggs. Roach was bearish even then, calling for 7.5% yields on the long bond (which continued to decline.)
http://www.businessweek.com/1997...43/
b3550104.htm
FWIW here's a 7-year old piece on roach and biggs. Roach was bearish even then, calling for 7.5% yields on the long bond (which continued to decline.)
[which YIELDS continued to decline. ie roach was spectacularly WRONG]
[which YIELDS continued to decline. ie roach was spectacularly WRONG]
rob loan me some money long term at 5% pleeeeze
rob loan me some money long term at 5% pleeeeze
The stage is already being set for entitlement cuts...
"In the end, it's the entitlements that are the real threat to deficits," said Joseph Antos, a health policy analyst at the conservative American Enterprise Institute."
In the whole article, there is nothing about Bush's tax cuts or Reagan's tax cuts, or the 40 year history of cutting taxes on wealthy people (except for Clinton's tiny increase)
Propaganda, Iraqi-intelligence style..
The stage is already being set for entitlement cuts...
"In the end, it's the entitlements that are the real threat to deficits," said Joseph Antos, a health policy analyst at the conservative American Enterprise Institute."
In the whole article, there is nothing about Bush's tax cuts or Reagan's tax cuts, or the 40 year history of cutting taxes on wealthy people (except for Clinton's tiny increase)
Propaganda, Iraqi-intelligence style..
I doubt a big crash will happen, Or rather, we're already in a slow motion crash and have been most of our lives. Personal income has been stagnant for most of the last 30 years. Economic growth has been fueled by debt-spending and a stock market and housing bubble. Well we know what happened with the stock market.
The whole thing has a distinct feel of an empire crumbling within.
I doubt a big crash will happen, Or rather, we're already in a slow motion crash and have been most of our lives. Personal income has been stagnant for most of the last 30 years. Economic growth has been fueled by debt-spending and a stock market and housing bubble. Well we know what happened with the stock market.
The whole thing has a distinct feel of an empire crumbling within.
Entitlements can and will be cut because they are expenses which do not tend to go untaxed directly into corporate coffers, the way that defense allocations, etc, do...
Entitlements can and will be cut because they are expenses which do not tend to go untaxed directly into corporate coffers, the way that defense allocations, etc, do...
Personally, I would welcome rampant inflation. But, that is because I have a massive student loan debt.
Personally, I would welcome rampant inflation. But, that is because I have a massive student loan debt.
"If I borrow a dollar from you today,
and then pay it back in 30 years, am I not paying you pennies on the dollar after inflation? Simply, 30 year bonds
are a scam! We have a three trillion dollar debt that get's slimmed and trimmed each year by inflation."
I am sure glad you have this 30 year bond thing all figured out! Think of all the fools that invest in these things!
You're an idiot.
"If I borrow a dollar from you today,
and then pay it back in 30 years, am I not paying you pennies on the dollar after inflation? Simply, 30 year bonds
are a scam! We have a three trillion dollar debt that get's slimmed and trimmed each year by inflation."
I am sure glad you have this 30 year bond thing all figured out! Think of all the fools that invest in these things!
You're an idiot.
Another one of these "secret" closed-door meetings that got leaked out. Don't be duped again - read the transcript of Mr. Roach's presentation. I always wondered how conspiracy theories got started, and I am beginning to understand.
Why exactly do you libs all focus on conspiracies? Is it a way to deflect the truth?
Jeb in '08.
Another one of these "secret" closed-door meetings that got leaked out. Don't be duped again - read the transcript of Mr. Roach's presentation. I always wondered how conspiracy theories got started, and I am beginning to understand.
Why exactly do you libs all focus on conspiracies? Is it a way to deflect the truth?
Jeb in '08.
Well what did you expect? The markets are freaking out worldwide over the prospects of a Kerry presidency. He's going to blow up a huge deficit! The smart money worldwide simply has no confidence in the Democrats, and the Democrats have no idea what to do now that they're moving into the white house.
This is all on Kerry's head. This never would have happened if Bush had been reelected.
.
Well what did you expect? The markets are freaking out worldwide over the prospects of a Kerry presidency. He's going to blow up a huge deficit! The smart money worldwide simply has no confidence in the Democrats, and the Democrats have no idea what to do now that they're moving into the white house.
This is all on Kerry's head. This never would have happened if Bush had been reelected.
.
The everthing is rosy crowd will be the biggest whiners that the government should do something when the shit hits the fan.
Yep we were greeted with flowers in Iraq, and before you know it there will be a Mickey D's and Walmarts on damn near every corner there, and the Iraqi people will be singing God Bless America as Dubya gets his mug on Mt. Rushmore...
Gloom and doom may not happen, but severe pain is likely (not that anybody in their right mind wants to see their fellows citizens go through that shit)but if you are waiting for the flowers to start flowing in Iraq then you have probably taken one too many bad LSD trips, from which there is no return.
The everthing is rosy crowd will be the biggest whiners that the government should do something when the shit hits the fan.
Yep we were greeted with flowers in Iraq, and before you know it there will be a Mickey D's and Walmarts on damn near every corner there, and the Iraqi people will be singing God Bless America as Dubya gets his mug on Mt. Rushmore...
Gloom and doom may not happen, but severe pain is likely (not that anybody in their right mind wants to see their fellows citizens go through that shit)but if you are waiting for the flowers to start flowing in Iraq then you have probably taken one too many bad LSD trips, from which there is no return.
Bush voters: Crying out for personal responsibility while planning their next bankruptcy.
Bush voters: Crying out for personal responsibility while planning their next bankruptcy.
http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/
d...ProductType=itr
CPI futures on the CME -- as close to a pure market forecast consensus as you can get. 2.5% out to '07.
http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/
d...ProductType=itr
Here's the Eurodollar futures curve. No higher than 6% as far as the eye can see.
http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/
d...ProductType=itr
CPI futures on the CME -- as close to a pure market forecast consensus as you can get. 2.5% out to '07.
http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/
d...ProductType=itr
Here's the Eurodollar futures curve. No higher than 6% as far as the eye can see.
A good book on this subject is Wealth and Democracy by Kevin Phillips. He takes the historical view of the economies of Holland, Spain, and Britian and says that we are following the same path and making the same mistakes as they did. His answer is protectionism and a more equal redistribution of wealth. Good Luck on any of those things happening today.
The parallels to the 20's and 30's are all here. My grandfather survived the Great Depression because the town banker held off foreclosing on his farm and FDR made low interest loans available to farmers for them to pay their mortgages and keep their farms. Like I said, I don't foresee anything like this happening today with the robber barons running the country.
I am also a Democratic Christian and I don't understand the alliance between big business and Christian churches. It would seem that, in a sane world, they would be natural anatagonists to each other.
A good book on this subject is Wealth and Democracy by Kevin Phillips. He takes the historical view of the economies of Holland, Spain, and Britian and says that we are following the same path and making the same mistakes as they did. His answer is protectionism and a more equal redistribution of wealth. Good Luck on any of those things happening today.
The parallels to the 20's and 30's are all here. My grandfather survived the Great Depression because the town banker held off foreclosing on his farm and FDR made low interest loans available to farmers for them to pay their mortgages and keep their farms. Like I said, I don't foresee anything like this happening today with the robber barons running the country.
I am also a Democratic Christian and I don't understand the alliance between big business and Christian churches. It would seem that, in a sane world, they would be natural anatagonists to each other.
Cochise -
Keep hope alive. We're all in this together.
Jeb in '08.
Cochise -
Keep hope alive. We're all in this together.
Jeb in '08.
i'm confused... i don't get the inflation connection with "encouraging people to sign up for adjustable rate mortgages..."
can someone explain it to the econimcally challenged (that's me)? thanks.
i'm confused... i don't get the inflation connection with "encouraging people to sign up for adjustable rate mortgages..."
can someone explain it to the econimcally challenged (that's me)? thanks.
selise-I presume it meant that a lot of people are going to have exploding monthly mortgage rates as the late 70s repeat themselves.
selise-I presume it meant that a lot of people are going to have exploding monthly mortgage rates as the late 70s repeat themselves.
So what should my advice for my parents who fell into the middle income trap (big house in Wash burbs where the best schools are, constantly appreciating housing values, all on debt..) be?
any chance of squirreling my meager part time college savings into GBP's??!
So what should my advice for my parents who fell into the middle income trap (big house in Wash burbs where the best schools are, constantly appreciating housing values, all on debt..) be?
any chance of squirreling my meager part time college savings into GBP's??!
spinoza - but then why would greenspan make that (ARM) recommendation? what would be his motivation (and i'm not expecting a benign movitivation - just one that makes sense). thanks!
spinoza - but then why would greenspan make that (ARM) recommendation? what would be his motivation (and i'm not expecting a benign movitivation - just one that makes sense). thanks!
I'm assuming Greespan does not give a damn about the ordinary citizen.
I'm assuming Greespan does not give a damn about the ordinary citizen.
'selise-I presume it meant that a lot of people are going to have exploding monthly mortgage rates as the late 70s repeat themselves.'
In which case a buyer of a cap on short rates would yield an incredible windfall. So anyone wishing to monetize a bearish view on bonds can do so right now for not very much money.
'selise-I presume it meant that a lot of people are going to have exploding monthly mortgage rates as the late 70s repeat themselves.'
In which case a buyer of a cap on short rates would yield an incredible windfall. So anyone wishing to monetize a bearish view on bonds can do so right now for not very much money.
I'll reply to rob as I usually do: rob, you would be 100 percent about Bush's far-sighted vision for the Middle East IF HE REALLY MEANT ANY OF IT.
That's the thing with your boy: He's politically very, very astute -- far more so than the blogosphere gives him credit for, even after his history-defying reelection -- but Bush doesn't mean any of this freedom's on the march shit. If he meant it -- hey, different story, the guy's a genius.
That's the fatal flaw in your otherwise cogent analysis, rob. You make the mistake of believing what Bush says about the Middle East is actually important to him.
I'll reply to rob as I usually do: rob, you would be 100 percent about Bush's far-sighted vision for the Middle East IF HE REALLY MEANT ANY OF IT.
That's the thing with your boy: He's politically very, very astute -- far more so than the blogosphere gives him credit for, even after his history-defying reelection -- but Bush doesn't mean any of this freedom's on the march shit. If he meant it -- hey, different story, the guy's a genius.
That's the fatal flaw in your otherwise cogent analysis, rob. You make the mistake of believing what Bush says about the Middle East is actually important to him.
but then why would greenspan make that (ARM) recommendation? what would be his motivation (and i'm not expecting a benign movitivation - just one that makes sense). thanks!
selise | Email | Homepage | 11.23.04 - 11:12 am>/i>
Could be that he sees an advantage for them moneyed class in having a whole shit-pot of foreclosures available for real estate consolidation?
It worked for the media...
but then why would greenspan make that (ARM) recommendation? what would be his motivation (and i'm not expecting a benign movitivation - just one that makes sense). thanks!
selise | Email | Homepage | 11.23.04 - 11:12 am>/i>
Could be that he sees an advantage for them moneyed class in having a whole shit-pot of foreclosures available for real estate consolidation?
It worked for the media...
Bush voters: Crying out for personal responsibility while planning their next bankruptcy.
or their third divorce
Bush voters: Crying out for personal responsibility while planning their next bankruptcy.
or their third divorce
This is all discussed Peter Peterson's book called "Running On Empty: How The Democratic and Republican Parties Are Bankrupting Our Future and What Americans Can Do About It" which came out this year.
Peterson knows just a little bit about economics and points to of the Dems creating the bloated programs and the GOP creating large deficits that have gotten us in this predicament.
Then you throw in the global growth of the aging population and retirement benefits look to set the whole thing in motion.
In his mind the catalyst will be when foreign investors, like Japan, yank their money out of our economy to take care of their seniors.
Why are we not talking about the role a large-scale terrorist attack on US soil would play in all of this? It is almost as if OBL wants to wait until a time where he can really whoop it up on us.
This is all discussed Peter Peterson's book called "Running On Empty: How The Democratic and Republican Parties Are Bankrupting Our Future and What Americans Can Do About It" which came out this year.
Peterson knows just a little bit about economics and points to of the Dems creating the bloated programs and the GOP creating large deficits that have gotten us in this predicament.
Then you throw in the global growth of the aging population and retirement benefits look to set the whole thing in motion.
In his mind the catalyst will be when foreign investors, like Japan, yank their money out of our economy to take care of their seniors.
Why are we not talking about the role a large-scale terrorist attack on US soil would play in all of this? It is almost as if OBL wants to wait until a time where he can really whoop it up on us.
So how's the orange crop this year in California?
So how's the orange crop this year in California?
This is all discussed Peter Peterson's book called "Running On Empty: How The Democratic and Republican Parties Are Bankrupting Our Future and What Americans Can Do About It" which came out this year.
Peterson knows just a little bit about economics and points to of the Dems creating the bloated programs and the GOP creating large deficits that have gotten us in this predicament.
Then you throw in the global growth of the aging population and retirement benefits look to set the whole thing in motion.
In his mind the catalyst will be when foreign investors, like Japan, yank their money out of our economy to take care of their seniors.
Why are we not talking about the role a large-scale terrorist attack on US soil would play in all of this? It is almost as if OBL wants to wait until a time where he can really whoop it up on us.
This is all discussed Peter Peterson's book called "Running On Empty: How The Democratic and Republican Parties Are Bankrupting Our Future and What Americans Can Do About It" which came out this year.
Peterson knows just a little bit about economics and points to of the Dems creating the bloated programs and the GOP creating large deficits that have gotten us in this predicament.
Then you throw in the global growth of the aging population and retirement benefits look to set the whole thing in motion.
In his mind the catalyst will be when foreign investors, like Japan, yank their money out of our economy to take care of their seniors.
Why are we not talking about the role a large-scale terrorist attack on US soil would play in all of this? It is almost as if OBL wants to wait until a time where he can really whoop it up on us.
Damn, looks like I crawled out of my
Y2K shelter a little too soon.
Damn, looks like I crawled out of my
Y2K shelter a little too soon.
chuck, I've been putting money in a coffee can under the bed for years. I really think that's going to be the best strategy.
That's a really bad strategy if the currency is collapsing, unless they are (for instance) Canadian dollars.
chuck, I've been putting money in a coffee can under the bed for years. I really think that's going to be the best strategy.
That's a really bad strategy if the currency is collapsing, unless they are (for instance) Canadian dollars.
Sluggo has reinvented himself.
Sluggo has reinvented himself.
Selise asks: "i'm confused... i don't get the inflation connection with "encouraging people to sign up for adjustable rate mortgages...""
I think Atrios' point was it was incredibly bad advice for Greenspan to tell Americans to consider changing to adjustable rate mortgages back in June.
When Greenspan made this weird statement in front of Congress I nearly fell out of my chair. Rates were at nearly all time lows for fixed rate mortgages and Greenspan had already talked about the need to raise rates. Then he says that consumers may be being too cautious with their insistence on fixed rate mortgages when adjustable rates would put more money in their pockets each month to blow at the mall to help the economy.
This advice, in my opinion, was an effort to help not consumers but banks! If a financial advisor gave you this advice you should hurl him off your front porch. Greenspan works for the banks not for us. When interest rise, not if but when, the larger the portfolio banks hold of fixed rate mortgages the worse off they will be. Greenspan should have been fired for this irresponsible statement.
Selise asks: "i'm confused... i don't get the inflation connection with "encouraging people to sign up for adjustable rate mortgages...""
I think Atrios' point was it was incredibly bad advice for Greenspan to tell Americans to consider changing to adjustable rate mortgages back in June.
When Greenspan made this weird statement in front of Congress I nearly fell out of my chair. Rates were at nearly all time lows for fixed rate mortgages and Greenspan had already talked about the need to raise rates. Then he says that consumers may be being too cautious with their insistence on fixed rate mortgages when adjustable rates would put more money in their pockets each month to blow at the mall to help the economy.
This advice, in my opinion, was an effort to help not consumers but banks! If a financial advisor gave you this advice you should hurl him off your front porch. Greenspan works for the banks not for us. When interest rise, not if but when, the larger the portfolio banks hold of fixed rate mortgages the worse off they will be. Greenspan should have been fired for this irresponsible statement.
selise,
I think Greenspan fears a banking collapse and is trying to move to protect them. He doesn't mind that it will impoverish the mortgage holder as rates goes up. The money has to come from somewhere.
Many people here confuse inflation with the great depression. They really are opposites.
In the 1930's cash was king. In an inflationary period cash is to be gotten rid of as quickly as possible.
selise,
I think Greenspan fears a banking collapse and is trying to move to protect them. He doesn't mind that it will impoverish the mortgage holder as rates goes up. The money has to come from somewhere.
Many people here confuse inflation with the great depression. They really are opposites.
In the 1930's cash was king. In an inflationary period cash is to be gotten rid of as quickly as possible.
Tom, you beat me to it!
Tom, you beat me to it!
To be more clear. Greenspan was telling the unwary to move to a lower rate mortgage now so they will increase their monthly spending money. He did not say, "the downside is you will no longer be protected against rising interest rates which next year could make your mortgage payment higher than it would have been if you held on to your 15 (or 30 for most people these days) year guaranteed incredibly low sweet rate."
See Greenspan wanted immediate economic growth by spurring shopping so Bush could get reelected. He also was concerned that banks and mortgage security holders would lose their ass if interest rates soared (cost of money goes up) while their assets were stuck in long term low interest paying loans.
Meaning - Greenspan was trying to screw the American public big time.
To be more clear. Greenspan was telling the unwary to move to a lower rate mortgage now so they will increase their monthly spending money. He did not say, "the downside is you will no longer be protected against rising interest rates which next year could make your mortgage payment higher than it would have been if you held on to your 15 (or 30 for most people these days) year guaranteed incredibly low sweet rate."
See Greenspan wanted immediate economic growth by spurring shopping so Bush could get reelected. He also was concerned that banks and mortgage security holders would lose their ass if interest rates soared (cost of money goes up) while their assets were stuck in long term low interest paying loans.
Meaning - Greenspan was trying to screw the American public big time.
but then why would greenspan make that (ARM) recommendation?
selise
If you take a fixed low rate loan, and there is inflation, the banks get screwed. If you take a variable rate loan, and there is inflation, you get screwed.
Bushies come down on the side of big business over the little guy every time.
but then why would greenspan make that (ARM) recommendation?
selise
If you take a fixed low rate loan, and there is inflation, the banks get screwed. If you take a variable rate loan, and there is inflation, you get screwed.
Bushies come down on the side of big business over the little guy every time.
Democrats: view capitalism as a means for making life good for the people.
Republicans: view the people as a means for making life good for big business.
Democrats: view capitalism as a means for making life good for the people.
Republicans: view the people as a means for making life good for big business.
>i don't get the inflation connection with "encouraging people to sign up for adjustable rate mortgages
Greenspan wants the risk of high inflation to be borne by the peons, not his friends the bankers.
That's what an ARM does - rebalance a lot of the risk back onto the borrower. You never get something for nothing.
>i don't get the inflation connection with "encouraging people to sign up for adjustable rate mortgages
Greenspan wants the risk of high inflation to be borne by the peons, not his friends the bankers.
That's what an ARM does - rebalance a lot of the risk back onto the borrower. You never get something for nothing.
jsg beat me to it...
jsg beat me to it...
jsg - You ignore the fact that there are people behind every big business. I'm not excusing their pandering, but must we realize that those 'people' make money, pay taxes, sponsor candidates and vote.
jsg - You ignore the fact that there are people behind every big business. I'm not excusing their pandering, but must we realize that those 'people' make money, pay taxes, sponsor candidates and vote.
jsg writes:
"Democrats: view capitalism as a means for making life good for the people.
Republicans: view the people as a means for making life good for big business."
I agree. Years ago I pointed out to my boss, who looked upon capitalism with a religious fervor bordering on the bizarre, what I saw as one of the major shortcomings of the free market.
I said one big problem is unenlightened consumers often cause the market to not work effectively so prices (and conversely business profits) are higher than they should be.
He said, "Wrong Tom, that is what makes capitalism so great. You should pay the higher price and reap the benefit of the masses stupidity by being an owner. If they work for too little or pay to much we win and they lose. You just need to make sure you are on the right side."
He was an asshole but he was an honest asshole.
jsg writes:
"Democrats: view capitalism as a means for making life good for the people.
Republicans: view the people as a means for making life good for big business."
I agree. Years ago I pointed out to my boss, who looked upon capitalism with a religious fervor bordering on the bizarre, what I saw as one of the major shortcomings of the free market.
I said one big problem is unenlightened consumers often cause the market to not work effectively so prices (and conversely business profits) are higher than they should be.
He said, "Wrong Tom, that is what makes capitalism so great. You should pay the higher price and reap the benefit of the masses stupidity by being an owner. If they work for too little or pay to much we win and they lose. You just need to make sure you are on the right side."
He was an asshole but he was an honest asshole.
I think stupid Americans who vote republican have earned having their own acronym. My vote is:
SRV: Stupid Republican Voter.
Anyone for making buttons and bumper stickers? My guess is that with just "SRV" and the gopper elephant, they would be stupid enough to buy them.
I think stupid Americans who vote republican have earned having their own acronym. My vote is:
SRV: Stupid Republican Voter.
Anyone for making buttons and bumper stickers? My guess is that with just "SRV" and the gopper elephant, they would be stupid enough to buy them.
Big sophisticated mortgage lenders like Wachovia offer fixed rates which they themselves hedge using interest rate swaps.
It sure seemed like Greenspan was trying to help his banking buddies when he suggested that borrowers switch to ARMs, but if most big banks use derivatives in the international money markets to hedge their fixed rate loans, I don't get it. Looks to me like the big banks who play in the global markets don't need Greenspan.
Big sophisticated mortgage lenders like Wachovia offer fixed rates which they themselves hedge using interest rate swaps.
It sure seemed like Greenspan was trying to help his banking buddies when he suggested that borrowers switch to ARMs, but if most big banks use derivatives in the international money markets to hedge their fixed rate loans, I don't get it. Looks to me like the big banks who play in the global markets don't need Greenspan.
So, uh, if we downsize our lives and buy an eensy house on a big lot (chickens!) and get out of this big rental sieve of a house we live in, and we get a fixed-rate mortage at a nice low rate...
... is that OK? Or should I just remain here, paralyzed by fear? We're not monied by any stretch.
We've never bought a house before; be gentle. My FIL was just telling me about the 18% interest rates people were paying in the 70s... seems liike now would be the time, yeah?
So, uh, if we downsize our lives and buy an eensy house on a big lot (chickens!) and get out of this big rental sieve of a house we live in, and we get a fixed-rate mortage at a nice low rate...
... is that OK? Or should I just remain here, paralyzed by fear? We're not monied by any stretch.
We've never bought a house before; be gentle. My FIL was just telling me about the 18% interest rates people were paying in the 70s... seems liike now would be the time, yeah?
jeffs - you make a good point about the banks having ways to protect themselves against interest rate spikes. Banks also sell off a huge chunk of mortgages in the securities markets as soon as the ink is dry on them. Greenspan may not have been specifically trying to help the banks but he certainly was trying to hurt consumers. I believe that he was trying more to spur consumer spending than anything else.
jeffs - you make a good point about the banks having ways to protect themselves against interest rate spikes. Banks also sell off a huge chunk of mortgages in the securities markets as soon as the ink is dry on them. Greenspan may not have been specifically trying to help the banks but he certainly was trying to hurt consumers. I believe that he was trying more to spur consumer spending than anything else.
Why else do you think Credit companies are doubling and tripling their rates? They're trying to get as much money as they can before shit goes under.
While the dollar continues to drop and foreign currencies continue to rise, eventually these countries that hold trillions of our debt are going to start losing fortunes on their investments. That, of course, won't be tolerated and those debts are going to start being called in. That's when its going to happen, guys. 10-20 years max.
Why else do you think Credit companies are doubling and tripling their rates? They're trying to get as much money as they can before shit goes under.
While the dollar continues to drop and foreign currencies continue to rise, eventually these countries that hold trillions of our debt are going to start losing fortunes on their investments. That, of course, won't be tolerated and those debts are going to start being called in. That's when its going to happen, guys. 10-20 years max.
Tom, that must have been it. Consumer spending.
Banks can take care of themselves.
Goddamned irresponsible.
Tom, that must have been it. Consumer spending.
Banks can take care of themselves.
Goddamned irresponsible.
Lisa - It is a difficult question to answer actually.
To buy or not to buy. On the one hand a quick rise in interest rates will make homes less affordable for first time buyers like yourself. On the other hand this would surely lead to a fall in real estate prices as fewer buyers would be lining up to buy homes that have appreciated a great deal.
So if you buy now (like right now) you may well get a low fixed interest rate but you could pay $20,000 or $30,000 more for your home than it will be worth a year from now after a real estate crash.
I may be too pessimistic but my advice would be to not buy right now, especially if you live in an area like I do (Portland, OR) where prices for homes are very high right now. Reduce your spending, save as much as you can, and avoid credit card debt.
Keep in mind this is one humble person's advice and I could easily be full of hot air. A real estate agent will always tell you that today is exactly the right time to buy. But that's how she gets paid.
Lisa - It is a difficult question to answer actually.
To buy or not to buy. On the one hand a quick rise in interest rates will make homes less affordable for first time buyers like yourself. On the other hand this would surely lead to a fall in real estate prices as fewer buyers would be lining up to buy homes that have appreciated a great deal.
So if you buy now (like right now) you may well get a low fixed interest rate but you could pay $20,000 or $30,000 more for your home than it will be worth a year from now after a real estate crash.
I may be too pessimistic but my advice would be to not buy right now, especially if you live in an area like I do (Portland, OR) where prices for homes are very high right now. Reduce your spending, save as much as you can, and avoid credit card debt.
Keep in mind this is one humble person's advice and I could easily be full of hot air. A real estate agent will always tell you that today is exactly the right time to buy. But that's how she gets paid.
So, uh, if we downsize our lives and buy an eensy house on a big lot (chickens!) and get out of this big rental sieve of a house we live in, and we get a fixed-rate mortage at a nice low rate...
... is that OK? Or should I just remain here, paralyzed by fear? We're not monied by any stretch.
We've never bought a house before; be gentle. My FIL was just telling me about the 18% interest rates people were paying in the 70s... seems liike now would be the time, yeah?
So, uh, if we downsize our lives and buy an eensy house on a big lot (chickens!) and get out of this big rental sieve of a house we live in, and we get a fixed-rate mortage at a nice low rate...
... is that OK? Or should I just remain here, paralyzed by fear? We're not monied by any stretch.
We've never bought a house before; be gentle. My FIL was just telling me about the 18% interest rates people were paying in the 70s... seems liike now would be the time, yeah?
Lisa - Tom's right. You can lock a low rate now, but expect house values to go down 10-20% or more in the next few years in areas that have risen drastically in the last few years. If you have a stable job and plan to stay in the area, buy. Otherwise, don't buy.
Lisa - Tom's right. You can lock a low rate now, but expect house values to go down 10-20% or more in the next few years in areas that have risen drastically in the last few years. If you have a stable job and plan to stay in the area, buy. Otherwise, don't buy.
Ironically enough, Canada is better positioned to absorb the impacts of this than most of the rest of the world thanks to the past decade of deficit elimination and debt repayment.
The other thing is that being a natural resource producer is going to provide a cushion. China is investing heavily in Canada (their governmental mining company has put in a bid to buy Noranda, one of Canada's oldest and biggest exploration/mining companies, outright) because of the massive shortage they have in, well, everything. Oil sands, metals, gas hydrates, you name it, they either want to buy it from us or buy/rent our expertise in finding and extracting it. And they are willing to pay well for it.
Ironically enough, Canada is better positioned to absorb the impacts of this than most of the rest of the world thanks to the past decade of deficit elimination and debt repayment.
The other thing is that being a natural resource producer is going to provide a cushion. China is investing heavily in Canada (their governmental mining company has put in a bid to buy Noranda, one of Canada's oldest and biggest exploration/mining companies, outright) because of the massive shortage they have in, well, everything. Oil sands, metals, gas hydrates, you name it, they either want to buy it from us or buy/rent our expertise in finding and extracting it. And they are willing to pay well for it.
Why else do you think Credit companies are doubling and tripling their rates? They're trying to get as much money as they can before shit goes under.
While the dollar continues to drop and foreign currencies continue to rise, eventually these countries that hold trillions of our debt are going to start losing fortunes on their investments. That, of course, won't be tolerated and those debts are going to start being called in. That's when its going to happen, guys. 10-20 years max.
Why else do you think Credit companies are doubling and tripling their rates? They're trying to get as much money as they can before shit goes under.
While the dollar continues to drop and foreign currencies continue to rise, eventually these countries that hold trillions of our debt are going to start losing fortunes on their investments. That, of course, won't be tolerated and those debts are going to start being called in. That's when its going to happen, guys. 10-20 years max.
And how is it that China has all this money to throw around investing in Capitalist countries? I thought Socialism doesn't produce wealth?
And how is it that China has all this money to throw around investing in Capitalist countries? I thought Socialism doesn't produce wealth?
So since I'm hoping to retire in 15 years, where should my little 403b be? Global? Bonds? Money market? little dollar bills buried in a jar in the back yard?
So since I'm hoping to retire in 15 years, where should my little 403b be? Global? Bonds? Money market? little dollar bills buried in a jar in the back yard?
What did we tell you? We said that the reason the stock market fell was because all these gazillionaires must know Bush's solid record of catastrophic failure, and while they support him out of faith that they'll be able to swipe some gilding from the sinking ship, while they externally mouth praises, they know where he's steering and invest accordingly. Just like the capitalists singing "what a friend we have in Coolidge," they're confident they'll escape unscathed, they're certainly not thinking about some Communist idea of the economy as a whole or the nation (an illusion for the peasants to cry over).
jt - China is undergoing a massive modernization program. Their economy has exploded with growth. Last year China purchased 40% of the world's concrete and a huge portion of steel. They have recently allowed Ford, GM, VW and others to begin offering automobile financing.
It won't take 10-20 years for foreign investment to leave the US - investment dollars will be flowing to China sooner than you think. I don't know how the world's resources (including clean air, water, oil) will be able to keep up with the demand coming from China.
What did we tell you? We said that the reason the stock market fell was because all these gazillionaires must know Bush's solid record of catastrophic failure, and while they support him out of faith that they'll be able to swipe some gilding from the sinking ship, while they externally mouth praises, they know where he's steering and invest accordingly. Just like the capitalists singing "what a friend we have in Coolidge," they're confident they'll escape unscathed, they're certainly not thinking about some Communist idea of the economy as a whole or the nation (an illusion for the peasants to cry over).
jt - China is undergoing a massive modernization program. Their economy has exploded with growth. Last year China purchased 40% of the world's concrete and a huge portion of steel. They have recently allowed Ford, GM, VW and others to begin offering automobile financing.
It won't take 10-20 years for foreign investment to leave the US - investment dollars will be flowing to China sooner than you think. I don't know how the world's resources (including clean air, water, oil) will be able to keep up with the demand coming from China.
jt - China is undergoing a massive modernization program. Their economy has exploded with growth. Last year China purchased 40% of the world's concrete and a huge portion of steel.
The other thing that China is doing right is, ironically, central planning. A common situation right now is overbuilding. They'll build, say, a business/retail complex that might only have 50 or 60% occupancy for several years after it's completed. The rationale is that if they build it now, they won't have to build it later when they need more room. And since the government is still authoritarian (I don't really think you can refer to them as Communist any more) they can do what has to be done to meet their plans with minimal problem from the population. A city is in the way of a new hydro dam? You move the city.
jt - China is undergoing a massive modernization program. Their economy has exploded with growth. Last year China purchased 40% of the world's concrete and a huge portion of steel.
The other thing that China is doing right is, ironically, central planning. A common situation right now is overbuilding. They'll build, say, a business/retail complex that might only have 50 or 60% occupancy for several years after it's completed. The rationale is that if they build it now, they won't have to build it later when they need more room. And since the government is still authoritarian (I don't really think you can refer to them as Communist any more) they can do what has to be done to meet their plans with minimal problem from the population. A city is in the way of a new hydro dam? You move the city.
How can you worry about something like this when two gays may be contemplating marriage somewhere?
How can you worry about something like this when two gays may be contemplating marriage somewhere?
This was 'ha ha' funny...
This was 'ha ha' funny...
I was telling our financial advisor this same thing a few weeks ago. Said I wanted to sell off some of our investment funds to pay off our variable line o' credit loan, which we used to put new, energy-efficient windows in our house.
Hooray for me.
And more reason for us all to protest the Bush election by NOT ENGAGING IN HOLIDAY BUYING.
Seriously. This should be a movement. It'd have more effect than traveling to DC to turn your back on Bush.
I was telling our financial advisor this same thing a few weeks ago. Said I wanted to sell off some of our investment funds to pay off our variable line o' credit loan, which we used to put new, energy-efficient windows in our house.
Hooray for me.
And more reason for us all to protest the Bush election by NOT ENGAGING IN HOLIDAY BUYING.
Seriously. This should be a movement. It'd have more effect than traveling to DC to turn your back on Bush.
Tom in Portland:
That's where I am, too. We sold our Pearl District condo a few years ago and bought a home (for essentially the same money...a 916 sq ft condo equaled the price of our 3100 sq ft home).
I'm hoping that the inevitable real estate bubble bursting won't affect homes as much as condos. I think that is a decent bet.
It's amazing to me, though, that condos in the Pearl are still rising in price. I think there must be a limit to how much value you can put on a 500 sq foot studio. Aren't these going for $250,000-$300,000 now?
Ridiculous.
Tom in Portland:
That's where I am, too. We sold our Pearl District condo a few years ago and bought a home (for essentially the same money...a 916 sq ft condo equaled the price of our 3100 sq ft home).
I'm hoping that the inevitable real estate bubble bursting won't affect homes as much as condos. I think that is a decent bet.
It's amazing to me, though, that condos in the Pearl are still rising in price. I think there must be a limit to how much value you can put on a 500 sq foot studio. Aren't these going for $250,000-$300,000 now?
Ridiculous.
Forget the house, Lisa. If you can, buy the land first. You can add things as you need to. You can put up a small manufactured home and build a small barn for a lot less than a brick/mortar home. When we moved from the 'burbs to the country, we bought the land first, then built the house. We then bought another lot next door and it has appreciated more than the house has.
Someone can always build more houses, but there isn't much more land being made, at least none you can live on immediately.
Forget the house, Lisa. If you can, buy the land first. You can add things as you need to. You can put up a small manufactured home and build a small barn for a lot less than a brick/mortar home. When we moved from the 'burbs to the country, we bought the land first, then built the house. We then bought another lot next door and it has appreciated more than the house has.
Someone can always build more houses, but there isn't much more land being made, at least none you can live on immediately.
If you have a stable job and plan to stay in the area, buy. Otherwise, don't buy.
yep; if you are staying put for 5 years or more, buying may be best. Plus, you will get the tax benefits of owning...but only until BushCo and his Republican toadies eliminate the mortgage interest rate deduction and the deduction for local taxes, under the guise of "tax simplification" (ie. screw the middle class some more).
But then again, if you rent, it will be easier to pack up your belongings and move to California to pick oranges if the need arises...
If you have a stable job and plan to stay in the area, buy. Otherwise, don't buy.
yep; if you are staying put for 5 years or more, buying may be best. Plus, you will get the tax benefits of owning...but only until BushCo and his Republican toadies eliminate the mortgage interest rate deduction and the deduction for local taxes, under the guise of "tax simplification" (ie. screw the middle class some more).
But then again, if you rent, it will be easier to pack up your belongings and move to California to pick oranges if the need arises...
Lisa - I hear you. My wife and I looked at condos in the Pearl just so we could be reminded what we cannot afford. The prices are astonishing, especially given the weak Oregon economy and the fact that their is a building boom going on in condos in the area. With hundreds of new units becoming available in the next year where do they find buyers at the prices they are charging? I have no doubt that the market is in for a correction here. Northeast Portland used to be a place to find bargains but the single family houses there are outrageous now too. Still I love Portland and would rather have a small home there than a huge home in the close in burbs.
Lisa - I hear you. My wife and I looked at condos in the Pearl just so we could be reminded what we cannot afford. The prices are astonishing, especially given the weak Oregon economy and the fact that their is a building boom going on in condos in the area. With hundreds of new units becoming available in the next year where do they find buyers at the prices they are charging? I have no doubt that the market is in for a correction here. Northeast Portland used to be a place to find bargains but the single family houses there are outrageous now too. Still I love Portland and would rather have a small home there than a huge home in the close in burbs.
Tom and Lisa - same story in DC. My little 975 sq. foot condo has appreciateed 251% in 7 years; but then I also have a 30 year fixed at 4.75%.
Tom and Lisa - same story in DC. My little 975 sq. foot condo has appreciateed 251% in 7 years; but then I also have a 30 year fixed at 4.75%.
Isn't this exactly what bin Laden said his goal was? To bankrupt the United States? What's scary is that he probably has a better chance of achieving his goal than we do of wiping out "terra."
How can Bush be playing so easily into bin Laden's hands? It's simply unbelievable. People need to write about this and talk about this. This is not a partisan issue.
It's going to be a sad day when we Kerry supporters finally get to say, I told you so. 
Isn't this exactly what bin Laden said his goal was? To bankrupt the United States? What's scary is that he probably has a better chance of achieving his goal than we do of wiping out "terra."
How can Bush be playing so easily into bin Laden's hands? It's simply unbelievable. People need to write about this and talk about this. This is not a partisan issue.
It's going to be a sad day when we Kerry supporters finally get to say, I told you so.
SRV will always be "Stevie Ray Vaughn."
SRV will always be "Stevie Ray Vaughn."
This may have been covered already, but I don't have time to read all of the posts. Can someone answer this question for me?
Is it possible to convert funds in an SEP IRA into another currency? And if so, is that even a good idea?
This may have been covered already, but I don't have time to read all of the posts. Can someone answer this question for me?
Is it possible to convert funds in an SEP IRA into another currency? And if so, is that even a good idea?
Roach has been saying that for better than ten years.
Roach has been saying that for better than ten years.
"Is it possible to convert funds in an SEP IRA into another currency?"
Not into foreign currency, but a global bond fund would do much the same thing.
" And if so, is that even a good idea?"
No. Ignore the panic talk around here.
"Is it possible to convert funds in an SEP IRA into another currency?"
Not into foreign currency, but a global bond fund would do much the same thing.
" And if so, is that even a good idea?"
No. Ignore the panic talk around here.
"I used to work at Morgan, and I've spoken to Roach on a few occasions. If he says we're gonna have a rocky road ahead, you can pretty much bet your ass we will."
Then explain why he's been saying it for 10 years....
"I used to work at Morgan, and I've spoken to Roach on a few occasions. If he says we're gonna have a rocky road ahead, you can pretty much bet your ass we will."
Then explain why he's been saying it for 10 years....
"So, what are some good careers to have during a depression?"
Invest your life savings in a Fifties Cadillac and open a church.
"So, what are some good careers to have during a depression?"
Invest your life savings in a Fifties Cadillac and open a church.
stupid republican voter
isn't that redundant?
stupid republican voter
isn't that redundant?
"Clearly this is all Clinton's fault."
Which one?
"Clearly this is all Clinton's fault."
Which one?
Thx for the advice!
The house in question is on a large -- I mean, it's big -- double lot. House is small (1100 SF, not including large finishable basement) but totally livable. Sturdy as a little work pony. Small and funky, and we're ready for small and funky.
Price: 90K neg. 90K! We're basically priced out of the market here, so when stuff like this comes up, we sit up and take notice. My spouse and I work for a small business, the kind you don't get rich working for.
Ack. I don't know what to think anymore.
Thx for the advice!
The house in question is on a large -- I mean, it's big -- double lot. House is small (1100 SF, not including large finishable basement) but totally livable. Sturdy as a little work pony. Small and funky, and we're ready for small and funky.
Price: 90K neg. 90K! We're basically priced out of the market here, so when stuff like this comes up, we sit up and take notice. My spouse and I work for a small business, the kind you don't get rich working for.
Ack. I don't know what to think anymore.
I am going to spend spend spend, for afterall, my normal comsumption equals a hundred or so you lib peon rats. You can all collectively kiss my backside for propping up this economy. Take a number and stand in line.
I am going to spend spend spend, for afterall, my normal comsumption equals a hundred or so you lib peon rats. You can all collectively kiss my backside for propping up this economy. Take a number and stand in line.
"..and of course through the grace of the almighty."
So those that aren't so lucky are suffering from his wrath?
Jeez.
"..and of course through the grace of the almighty."
So those that aren't so lucky are suffering from his wrath?
Jeez.
"... the extrapolations, which give the forecasts, are based on the belief that these equations offered below embody the major forces in the market ... We do not believe in the existence of deterministic trajectories but we aim at targeting the most probable future paths.
Please refer to the following paper for a detailed description: D. Sornette and W.-X. Zhou, The US 2000-2002 Market Descent: How Much Longer and Deeper? Quantitative Finance 2 (6), 468-481 (2002) (e-print at http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0209065).
Why Stock Markets Crash: For a general presentation of the underlying concepts, theory, empirical tests and concrete applications, with a discussion of previous predictions, see the recent book, Why Stock Markets Crash...."
"... the extrapolations, which give the forecasts, are based on the belief that these equations offered below embody the major forces in the market ... We do not believe in the existence of deterministic trajectories but we aim at targeting the most probable future paths.
Please refer to the following paper for a detailed description: D. Sornette and W.-X. Zhou, The US 2000-2002 Market Descent: How Much Longer and Deeper? Quantitative Finance 2 (6), 468-481 (2002) (e-print at http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0209065).
Why Stock Markets Crash: For a general presentation of the underlying concepts, theory, empirical tests and concrete applications, with a discussion of previous predictions, see the recent book, Why Stock Markets Crash...."
http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/
....asp#prediction
http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/
....asp#prediction
For people looking for investment advice, here's the thing. There are conflicting ideas on what's happening, and this makes investment much more difficult. The dollar can do several things valuewise. It can be viewed as more valuable than other currencies, making wages and prices drop, which is what happens in a recession. It can go down in value, making goods more expensive and raising wages, and it can stay about the same. The third option is preferable for stability reasons, so it's generally what the Fed aims for.
If we run into inflation, and you have saved up dollars, then you lose, since you've now got maybe 10-20% less than you started with. If you were to have debts and inflation kicked in, then you would come out ahead, since what you owe is now worth 10-20% less.
On the other hand, if we run into deflation, like in the Great Depression, then saving up money is much better than borrowing it. The advice in each case is the complete opposite of the other. Now which one to choose is the problem. You see, everyone is saying something different, and everyone has a different policy, so it's tough to tell who's going to do what.
Bush is currently running an anti-deflation fiscal policy. Greenspan is running an anti-inflation monetary policy. Volcker, Buffett, Roach and a whole bunch of influential people have all opined that the economy is about to head off on an expedition up shit creek without a paddle, but there are disagrements on what exactly will happen. Buffett sounded like there might be a hint of deflation, as he suggested just going with cash, but the others have been talking more of inflationary problems.
OK, so lots of important people seem to be hinting towards inflation, and they have been pretty right in the past. However, that isn't counting the IMF, the Fed, the Asian countries, and US investors who are going to fight inflation hard. Wal-Mart is probably also a pretty good brake on inflation, but I don't know how to quantify it.
The upshot of all of this? I have no friggin' idea what's going to happen, but here's my guess. We're going to see a currency crisis, and the dollar will drop about 10-20% relatively quickly (maybe over a few months). Anti-inflation forces start working overtime, and we stabilize the currency value while setting off a recession (Remember the Carter years? Exact same thing.) What happens from there?
Bush can go off and do something stupid to cause a real dollar crash, like cutting taxes while invading another country, which means inflation beyond what other groups can stop. This is when you thank God and pay off your fixed rate mortgage with a few million dollar bills from your pocket.
Or Bush can go the psycho Libertarian route and default on our debts. That is the sound of $6,000,000,000,000 dollars going poof and disappearing. Same effect, but China gets fucked harder than we do. In any case, the pitchfork and torch stocks are going to be in the
For people looking for investment advice, here's the thing. There are conflicting ideas on what's happening, and this makes investment much more difficult. The dollar can do several things valuewise. It can be viewed as more valuable than other currencies, making wages and prices drop, which is what happens in a recession. It can go down in value, making goods more expensive and raising wages, and it can stay about the same. The third option is preferable for stability reasons, so it's generally what the Fed aims for.
If we run into inflation, and you have saved up dollars, then you lose, since you've now got maybe 10-20% less than you started with. If you were to have debts and inflation kicked in, then you would come out ahead, since what you owe is now worth 10-20% less.
On the other hand, if we run into deflation, like in the Great Depression, then saving up money is much better than borrowing it. The advice in each case is the complete opposite of the other. Now which one to choose is the problem. You see, everyone is saying something different, and everyone has a different policy, so it's tough to tell who's going to do what.
Bush is currently running an anti-deflation fiscal policy. Greenspan is running an anti-inflation monetary policy. Volcker, Buffett, Roach and a whole bunch of influential people have all opined that the economy is about to head off on an expedition up shit creek without a paddle, but there are disagrements on what exactly will happen. Buffett sounded like there might be a hint of deflation, as he suggested just going with cash, but the others have been talking more of inflationary problems.
OK, so lots of important people seem to be hinting towards inflation, and they have been pretty right in the past. However, that isn't counting the IMF, the Fed, the Asian countries, and US investors who are going to fight inflation hard. Wal-Mart is probably also a pretty good brake on inflation, but I don't know how to quantify it.
The upshot of all of this? I have no friggin' idea what's going to happen, but here's my guess. We're going to see a currency crisis, and the dollar will drop about 10-20% relatively quickly (maybe over a few months). Anti-inflation forces start working overtime, and we stabilize the currency value while setting off a recession (Remember the Carter years? Exact same thing.) What happens from there?
Bush can go off and do something stupid to cause a real dollar crash, like cutting taxes while invading another country, which means inflation beyond what other groups can stop. This is when you thank God and pay off your fixed rate mortgage with a few million dollar bills from your pocket.
Or Bush can go the psycho Libertarian route and default on our debts. That is the sound of $6,000,000,000,000 dollars going poof and disappearing. Same effect, but China gets fucked harder than we do. In any case, the pitchfork and torch stocks are going to be in the
stratosphere.
stratosphere.
Thx for the advice!
The house in question is on a large -- I mean, it's big -- double lot. House is small (1100 SF, not including large finishable basement) but totally livable. Sturdy as a little work pony. Small and funky, and we're ready for small and funky.
Price: 90K neg. 90K! We're basically priced out of the market here, so when stuff like this comes up, we sit up and take notice. My spouse and I work for a small business, the kind you don't get rich working for.
Ack. I don't know what to think anymore.
Thx for the advice!
The house in question is on a large -- I mean, it's big -- double lot. House is small (1100 SF, not including large finishable basement) but totally livable. Sturdy as a little work pony. Small and funky, and we're ready for small and funky.
Price: 90K neg. 90K! We're basically priced out of the market here, so when stuff like this comes up, we sit up and take notice. My spouse and I work for a small business, the kind you don't get rich working for.
Ack. I don't know what to think anymore.
Thx for the advice!
The house in question is on a large -- I mean, it's big -- double lot. House is small (1100 SF, not including large finishable basement) but totally livable. Sturdy as a little work pony. Small and funky, and we're ready for small and funky.
Price: 90K neg. 90K! We're basically priced out of the market here, so when stuff like this comes up, we sit up and take notice. My spouse and I work for a small business, the kind you don't get rich working for.
Ack. I don't know what to think anymore.
Thx for the advice!
The house in question is on a large -- I mean, it's big -- double lot. House is small (1100 SF, not including large finishable basement) but totally livable. Sturdy as a little work pony. Small and funky, and we're ready for small and funky.
Price: 90K neg. 90K! We're basically priced out of the market here, so when stuff like this comes up, we sit up and take notice. My spouse and I work for a small business, the kind you don't get rich working for.
Ack. I don't know what to think anymore.
'Then explain why he's been saying it for 10 years....'
indeed. This guy's been short the Dow from 5000 (note: currently the DJIA is only 10% from its all time highs). why are we taking his opinions seriously again? Ahh because he's a licensed economist!
'Then explain why he's been saying it for 10 years....'
indeed. This guy's been short the Dow from 5000 (note: currently the DJIA is only 10% from its all time highs). why are we taking his opinions seriously again? Ahh because he's a licensed economist!
[i]Meaning - Greenspan was trying to screw the American public big time.[/i]
Just like he did on the SS Commission in the 80s.
[i]Meaning - Greenspan was trying to screw the American public big time.[/i]
Just like he did on the SS Commission in the 80s.
sean-paul - thanks for the FT link. This is the story that my AFP link talks about.
As for Buffett, he took another billion and moved it to foreign currencies about a month ago.
The problem now as opposed to past times, is that there is a convergence of a record Federal annual deficit, current account deficit, and loss of faith in the US dollar as THE stable currency of the world.
Nobody believes the impotent Snow when he says, the Busheviks are pursuing a strong dollar policy. Nobody believes the impotent Busheviks when they say they are going to halve the deficit in 5 years (at least in real terms).
Guess what... Clinton ran a surplus. The Busheviks turned that around in to a massive deficit. Clinton had high foreign direct investment coming in to the US. The Busheviks have chopped that down to 25% (by 75%) of the FDI during Clinton's time, now placing the US behind China and FRANCE!
This massive turnaround for the worse is why nobody believes the propaganda of the Busheviks and of the trolls here. And rightly so.
sean-paul - thanks for the FT link. This is the story that my AFP link talks about.
As for Buffett, he took another billion and moved it to foreign currencies about a month ago.
The problem now as opposed to past times, is that there is a convergence of a record Federal annual deficit, current account deficit, and loss of faith in the US dollar as THE stable currency of the world.
Nobody believes the impotent Snow when he says, the Busheviks are pursuing a strong dollar policy. Nobody believes the impotent Busheviks when they say they are going to halve the deficit in 5 years (at least in real terms).
Guess what... Clinton ran a surplus. The Busheviks turned that around in to a massive deficit. Clinton had high foreign direct investment coming in to the US. The Busheviks have chopped that down to 25% (by 75%) of the FDI during Clinton's time, now placing the US behind China and FRANCE!
This massive turnaround for the worse is why nobody believes the propaganda of the Busheviks and of the trolls here. And rightly so.
"stupid republican voter
isn't that redundant?"
stupid people need a lot of reinforcement.
"stupid republican voter
isn't that redundant?"
stupid people need a lot of reinforcement.
Oil sands, metals, gas hydrates, you name it, they either want to buy it from us or buy/rent our expertise in finding and extracting it. And they are willing to pay well for it.
I hope they will pay for extracting these kinds of resources because it will be expensive and the EROEI (Energy Return on Energy Investment) is not good at all.
Oil sands, metals, gas hydrates, you name it, they either want to buy it from us or buy/rent our expertise in finding and extracting it. And they are willing to pay well for it.
I hope they will pay for extracting these kinds of resources because it will be expensive and the EROEI (Energy Return on Energy Investment) is not good at all.
Well, poor Greenspan couldn't seem to find his notes on the trade and budget deficits until a couple days after the election, and then he comes clean with the public.
A day late and a dollar short?
Remember Hoovervilles? We can now call them Bush Cities.
Well, poor Greenspan couldn't seem to find his notes on the trade and budget deficits until a couple days after the election, and then he comes clean with the public.
A day late and a dollar short?
Remember Hoovervilles? We can now call them Bush Cities.
Another post, sorry about that...but what happens to our much-vaunted military supremacy if we can't afford to buy gasoline and other supplies to keep the boys in uniform clomping all over the globe?
Kind of like the end of that movie about the Battle of the Bulge, with Robert Shaw as a zealous Nazi tank commander, whose push through the Ardennes (?) ends when he can't get enough fuel for his tanks.
Everybody drops their rucksacks and rifles, and trudges off home, sadder but wiser. Except Shaw, of course, who ends up a burned cinder in his tank while the German national anthem plays riotously in the background.
We may pull out of Iraq because nobody will buy our T-Bills anymore.
Another post, sorry about that...but what happens to our much-vaunted military supremacy if we can't afford to buy gasoline and other supplies to keep the boys in uniform clomping all over the globe?
Kind of like the end of that movie about the Battle of the Bulge, with Robert Shaw as a zealous Nazi tank commander, whose push through the Ardennes (?) ends when he can't get enough fuel for his tanks.
Everybody drops their rucksacks and rifles, and trudges off home, sadder but wiser. Except Shaw, of course, who ends up a burned cinder in his tank while the German national anthem plays riotously in the background.
We may pull out of Iraq because nobody will buy our T-Bills anymore.
A quick question about ARMs... does the "ARMs are gonna be bad" advice apply to all ARMs? Are ones that start out with fixed payments (like 5/1 or 7/1 ARMs) okay, if you know that you could pay off the house in 5 or 7 years (if TSHTF)?
Also, with all this talk about the euro probably being more stable for investments (especially if it goes petro-euro)... what about other currencies? Would Canadian dollars or Japanese yen be worth buying some of? I'm thinking about diversifying some of my savings into other currencies, but I'm not sure which.
A quick question about ARMs... does the "ARMs are gonna be bad" advice apply to all ARMs? Are ones that start out with fixed payments (like 5/1 or 7/1 ARMs) okay, if you know that you could pay off the house in 5 or 7 years (if TSHTF)?
Also, with all this talk about the euro probably being more stable for investments (especially if it goes petro-euro)... what about other currencies? Would Canadian dollars or Japanese yen be worth buying some of? I'm thinking about diversifying some of my savings into other currencies, but I'm not sure which.
Wascally Wabbit: If you listen to Grover Norquist and Don Regan, these economic policies predate anything Bin Laden has said. These people have always wanted an economic crash.
Wascally Wabbit: If you listen to Grover Norquist and Don Regan, these economic policies predate anything Bin Laden has said. These people have always wanted an economic crash.
The rest of the world is going to say, of our bankruptcy: "It couldn't happen to a nicer group of people. Har har har!"
The rest of the world is going to say, of our bankruptcy: "It couldn't happen to a nicer group of people. Har har har!"
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