HULK SMASHED
Does this mean I'm cool?
I think it does.
quilts are always cool
Yes, yes it does, if I do say so myself.
I'll call sheets.
Timing is everything, innit?
he owns and loses 9 fucking houses but now his life will be 'richer and fuller?'
my 'bullshit' radar is ringing.
I owe ql a sheets coke, even if she did matrix-style
WTF?
As someone who's pretty naive to investing in anything, was it really that good of an investment when the market was hot?
Why'd he have to declare bankruptcy?
shawk: When, exactly, does a vehicle cross over from bigass scooter to motorcycle?
When the vehicle requires tattoos.
Oddly, the li'l scooter riders have a lot of tats and piercings and interesting hairstyles.
.
Yeah, but he was speculating, like a good American. He wasn't poor, black or one of those people trying to own a first home. So it's ok.
Vestal Vespa was big on tattoos.
dood is 37 and has 800k in stock options.
the sound you are hearing is the world's smallest violin...
I'm in danger of losing my lottery tickets without a subsidy.
A California man who has defaulted on nine homes and expects banks to foreclose on all of them, forcing him into bankruptcy, says he now considers it a mistake to have invested in the real estate market.
Ya think?
putting 10 percent to 40 percent down
This doesn't sound like a sound stategy to begin with... although I don't know nuthin' bout no negative amortization loans.
If they foreclose on 9 investment properties from 1 owner, does that count as 1 foreclosure or 9 for statistical purposes? I'm so confused by this modern economy.
I only put 10% down on my lottery tickets, but still it's sad.
from wikipedia:
Michigan residents often show where in Michigan they have been, by pointing to their hands.
Don't ask sinfonian where he has been.
It's of more than passing interest how regularly, and how often, people fool themselves. If real estate prices are going up faster than salaries for the thirty-seventh consecutive year, well, it'd seem a poor strategy to rely on that continuing...
I'm very sad this man's attempt to game the system didn't work out for him.
plantsman: Vestal Vespa was big on tattoos.
I never got the scoop on what happened to her Bajaj Cheetak, but I saw my first Cheetak in person on Friday. Nifty metal bike made in India. It has the coolest instrument panel on Earth, btw.
.
Does this mean I'm cool?
qlª | Homepage | 05.11.08 - 11:56 am | #
Yes.
There is something to be said for diversifying your portfolio.
although I don't know nuthin' bout no negative amortization loans.
You're in a mess of trouble if you finance negative equity.
I just don't know how people can stomach this stuff.
Glad experience has made him wiser, but it sounds as though the bar on wisdom was pretty low for this guy to begin with.....
Dead threaded:
Moe: Thomas Powers agrees with you in the current NYRB. He doesn't see either Democrat declaring de facto defeat in a military exercise by withdrawing from it:
Iraq is the big war. Getting out of Iraq will require just as much resolution as it took to get in—and the same kind of resolution: a willingness to ignore the consequences. The consequence hardest to ignore will be the growing power and influence of Iran, which Bush has described as one of the two great security threats to the US. Israel shares this view of Iran. No new president will want to run the risk of being thought soft on Iran. This is where the military error exacts a terrible price. A political conflict transformed into a military conflict requires a military resolution, and those, famously, come in two forms—victory or defeat. Getting out means admitting defeat.
Is it possible that the new president will have that kind of resolution? I think not; to my ear Clinton and Obama don't sound drained of hope or bright ideas, determined to cut losses and end the agony. Why should they? They're coming in fresh from the sidelines. Getting out, giving up, admitting defeat are not what we expect from the psychology of newly elected presidents who have just overcome all odds and battled through to personal victory. They've managed the impossible once; why not again? Planning for withdrawals might begin on Day One, but the plans will be hostage to events.
At first, perhaps, all runs smoothly. Then things begin to happen. The situation on the first day has altered by the tenth. Some faction of Iraqis joins or drops out of the fight. A troublesome law is passed, or left standing. A helicopter goes down with casualties in two digits. The Green Zone is hit by a new wave of rockets or mortars from Sadr City in Baghdad. The US Army protests that the rockets or mortars were provided by Iran. The new president warns Iran to stay out of the fight. The government in Tehran dismisses the warning. This is already a long-established pattern. Why should we expect it to change? So it goes. At an unmarked moment somewhere between the third and the sixth month a sea change occurs: Bush's war becomes the new president's war, and getting out means failure, means defeat, means rising opposition at home, means no second term. It's not hard to see where this is going.
We are committed in Afghanistan. We are not ready to leave Iraq. In both countries our friends are in trouble. The pride of American arms is at stake. The world is watching. To me the logic of events seems inescapable. Unless something quite unexpected happens, four years from now the presidential candidates will be arguing about two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, one going into its ninth year, the other into its eleventh. The choice will be the one Americans hate most—get out or fight on.
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21431
Good article, well worth the read.
I'm very sad this man's attempt to game the system didn't work out for him.
Culture of TrÜth | Homepage | 05.11.08 - 12:04 pm | #
That shows a nice spirit on your part...
"On the surface it looks like total devastation but it's just the opposite. I'm confident our lives will be much, much richer as a result."
Geez, talk about spin. I'm all for looking at the bright side of life, but isn't this a tad rose-colored? Their lives would have been much richer if he hadn't been such a greedy SOB. $800K in stock options, invested sensibly at the age of 38, can make you very rich over time.
Renting was definitely not his plan if he snapped up 9 in a short period of time. Renting is almost always negative income. It might be good cash flow, but far too much work to jump into like that.
sounds as though the bar on wisdom was pretty low for this guy to begin with...
But he's a software manager! He had stock options!
He's the future of our economy!!!
putting 10 percent to 40 percent down
This doesn't sound like a sound stategy to begin with... although I don't know nuthin' bout no negative amortization loans.
SteveLG | 05.11.08 - 12:02 pm | #
The downpayments don't sound out of line, (depending on what the average was)...it's the negative amortization.
An irresponsible mortgage product, typical of a bubble. His bankers deserve as much blame as he does...more, since that is supposed to be their profession.
~
I seem to have missed "Face the Nation." Did Edwards say/do anything?
Withdrawal is not surrender, Wolf! Why do you blame our troops for losing Iraq? Traitor!
How can you use stock options to buy anything? They're just rights to purchase stock at a discount.
$800K in stock options, invested sensibly at the age of 38, can make you very rich over time.
I'd be more than happy to get $50k a year in interest income from that for, say, the rest of my life.
What's interesting about this article is that nowhere does it say if he ever even rented any of these properties out.
Considering that he bought 'investment properties' in far-away markets like Phoenix and north Las Vegas... I am fairly certain he never rented them out nor had that as a Plan B, unless he thought to hire a property management firm to do the maintenance and collect rents.
Did Edwards say/do anything?
Didn't he (presuming you're talking about John) kinda tip his cap on Friday?
Speaking of big-ass scooters, I rode Kymco's biggest on Friday afternoon. Whoa.
.
Thanks for that, Prof.
I agree, the Americans aren't leaving Iraq, UNLESS, and this is very possible, the Iraqis chase them out.
Is John McCain planning on invading Gaza City? Otherwise, I am pretty sure the Israelis and the PLO will remain their worst nightmares for the time being.
Edwards was very measured in all he said; although he said Obama was the "likely nominee" he did not endorse.
I meant Fatah. My apologies to Fatah for calling them the PLO.
Terry McAuliffe killed Big Russ on MTP.
Terry McAuliffe killed Big Russ on MTP.
plantsman, | Homepage | 05.11.08 - 12:09 pm | #
I saw that, via CoT's live blogging. I hope someone called the cops.
~
How can you use stock options to buy anything?
That part of the article WAS poorly written; I would presume he cashed them in and that is where he got the $800K.
What amazes me is that he put so much down; banks were doing 100% financing towards the height of the bubble. Seems to me he easily could have got some sucker lender to give him a free 'put' on most of the properties.
Also, the article says he started buying in 2004. He had about two years to flip these houses and avoid the loss, but it seems he didn't do that for ANY of these. Evidently he took a long-term 'buy-and-hold' strategy in a very short-term market.
Edwards was very measured in all he said; although he said Obama was the "likely nominee" he did not endorse.
plantsman,
Pfft.
I'm increasingly glad he won't be the nominee, although he was my first choice and I'd be happy to see him with a place in the Obama Administration.
The same sort of people-- and sometimes the very same people-- who took it in the shorts in real estate are now investing in commodities: "It's always going up! I'll make a killing."
Every dividend check will be re-invested in commodities, and if they can borrow to invest, they will.
Terry McAuliffe killed Big Russ on MTP.
I just watched that. Awwwkward.
but McCauliffe just skated over it.
what a bullshitter.
I thought the men with the butterfly nets were going to take Terry away.
Four years later, using $800,000 in stock options, he began snapping up investment properties
That probably should have read, '$800,000 proceeds from selling stock options...'
Also, the article says he started buying in 2004. He had about two years to flip these houses and avoid the loss
They must have been shitty houses, if he bought nine of them for $800K.
The torture trail followed all the way to the top at
http://cabdrollery.blogspot.com
Every dividend check will be re-invested in commodities, and if they can borrow to invest, they will.
I would love to short commodities, they seem rather inflated, but I have no idea how much higher they will go... I guess that's why I will never (hopefully) end up like the subject of this story, getting in over my head in a market I don't understand.
They must have been shitty houses, if he bought nine of them for $800K.
MP
That would be the 10-40% downpayment, no?
Out'o'here... see you on the drive-by.
I'm currently watching Felix the Cat wage jihad against rats. It's very odd...
A friend tried investing in commodities. After he gave up, his broker told him "I should have watched you and done the opposite of everything you did - I'd be rich."
Like I've always said: Forewarned is Forgaard.
They must have been shitty houses, if he bought nine of them for $800K.
read just a little more...
putting 10 percent to 40 percent down on negative amortization loans
40% down? I thought they were giving away mortgages for anywhere from 0 down to 5% down. Christ. 40% down? One of the first rules in being a RE investor... use other people's money whenever possible!
That would be the 10-40% downpayment, no?
Yes the down payments. But I wouldn't think $800K would cover 10-40% down on nine nice houses at 2004 prices. Maybe so.
JP - I really should start working on Mrs Toonscribe about the idea of a scooter. I've got a good friend (went to college with him) who owns a 20-25% share in a Ducati dealership in Glendale that also sells Vespas. I could probably get one at cost through him.
"On the surface it looks like total devastation but it's just the opposite. I'm confident our lives will be much, much richer as a result."
I bet his wife would tend to disagree. She must love him very much; she's still with him, the article implies.
I'll tell you right now who is not leaving Iraq: The IRAQIS who hate us. nor are the Afghanis who hate us leaving their country, nor is Iran leaving. So grow the fuck up USA, leave the ME party now that you have shit the punchbowl. "We not leaving" only impresses SOME Americans anymore. The ones that are proud of the "log" in the punch...
The real investors are the ones getting these properties at auction now.
Terry McAuliffe killed Big Russ on MTP.
plantsman, | Homepage | 05.11.08 - 12:09 pm | #
Uh, I don't know about that. He actually said that we have to elect Hillary because we need to keep the House.
Dude -- it's gonna be a Democratic landslide this year. A major appliance could run as the Dem candidate and we'd keep the House....
I would love to short commodities, they seem rather inflated
The problem is predicting when the bubble will burst. The tech boom lasted, what, 7 years? Real estate maybe a decade?
I think we're going to see prices go up, for a good long time.
Toonscribe: JP - I really should start working on Mrs Toonscribe about the idea of a scooter. I've got a good friend (went to college with him) who owns a 20-25% share in a Ducati dealership in Glendale that also sells Vespas. I could probably get one at cost through him.
Great bikes, but if the friend will be honest, ask what's the longest he's had to wait to get a drive belt (or a throttle cable) for one. I understand Piaggio has been beefing up its parts distribution in the U.S., but it was not so good a year ago.
.
We paid $180K for the only house I've ever owned 17 years ago. We could barely afford it when we bought. I watched as my house value went up every year and my kids grew up and went to college.
The value probably topped out about two years ago, nearing $600K. I've since lost about $100K in value but so what. My kids are happy young adults, my wife and I are still in love and I've got a hammock in my shaded back yard.
This blog is becoming increasingly sucky now that Atrios is devoting all this attention to the Sub-Prime debacle.
Methinks his interest has something to do with his jitters about becoming a new homeowner.
"ain't no party like a Reaganomic party because a Reaganomic party don't stop"-Larry Cuntlow
And remember kids, Mom spelled upside down is Wow!!!!!!
I think we're going to see prices go up, for a good long time.
That's why I don't dare do it. Oil, for example, could go up to $150 and then collapse. Or, it could go to $200 and just stay there for a while until our government begins to get the dollar's house in order. Plus, so much is riding on the outcome of this fall's election.
Happy noon, everyone!
Mayhap, he put the 40% down on the house his family was to occupy.
I just can't get over the crappy underwriting standards on so many of these loans. If I understand correctly, a lot of it is/was now done with computer models.
Also, I think most "investor" or non-owner occupied houses usually have higher mortgage and insurance rates than owner occupied.
Toonscribe -- Also keep in mind that dealer cost on a Piaggio is probably still 20% higher than an equivalent Kymco at MSRP.
.
The value probably topped out about two years ago, nearing $600K. I've since lost about $100K in value but so what. My kids are happy young adults, my wife and I are still in love and I've got a hammock in my shaded back yard.
You see your house as a place to live, not an ATM? What are you, a commie? The terrorists have won, at least at your home.
Also, I think most "investor" or non-owner occupied houses usually have higher mortgage and insurance rates than owner occupied.
True but a lot of people lied about this, I think.
The real investors are the ones getting these properties at auction now.
MP | 05.11.08 - 12:19 pm | #
Perhaps. Or perhaps the real investors will be buying these properties a few years from now, when they're back in foreclosure.
~
Methinks his interest has something to do with his jitters about becoming a new homeowner.
Yeah, and not because he's an economist...
Forgaard bought a house in Santa Cruz, about 60 miles (100 km) south of San Francisco, in 2000. Four years later, using $800,000 in stock options, he began snapping up investment properties, putting 10 percent to 40 percent down on negative amortization loans -- in which payments do not cover the interest so that a borrower's balance grows over time.
What a fucking moron.
Perhaps. Or perhaps the real investors will be buying these properties a few years from now, when they're back in foreclosure.
The thing to do would have been to sell your house at peak, then live in a dump, or rent for a couple of years, then buy back your house at a huge discount.
If he did rent them out, then you get the feeling he'd be one of those shitty landlords who sees rental property as nothing more than a way to Become A Millionaire.
Perhaps. Or perhaps the real investors will be buying these properties a few years from now, when they're back in foreclosure.
Bingo.
Investment means one thing. It means getting a certain expected return by means of positive cash flow. When one hopes for capital gains that isn't investment it is speculation. Of course for 30 years the public has been taught differently by everyone.
So this guy was speculating when he thought he was investing.
Other real estate items.
While the stats say prices nation wide are down 9% the actual number is twice that if you actually go by market value. In 2/3 of the country prices are now pretty stable but those are the low priced areas to begin with. On the coasts and in the Sunbelt is where because of inflation the bulk of home 'values' are located, as well as the bulk of the problem mortgage paper.
So instead of saying Peoria is down 2% and Riverside is down 21% for a 9% average you should add up the total value of all residential RE and calculate the total loss of value. That is probably on the order of 20%, so far.
What a fucking moron.
I get the feeling this guy hasn't learned his lesson, despite what he said about "being richer now".
Haven't people ever learned that get rich quick schemes are usually doomed to failure? Or the fable of the tortoise and the hare?
Perhaps. Or perhaps the real investors will be buying these properties a few years from now, when they're back in foreclosure.
It's possible that those shitty clapboard houses thrown up 40 miles from any employment beyond fast food outlets won't ever again have any value.
Fuck you Sanchez you prick. Why the fuck didn't you say this shit two years ago. You are just as guilty for this mess as Bush.
While it's impossible to make loads off a single investment, prices on rare phonograph LPs and modern art and furniture continue to rise.
I get a kick out of this seller's auction site:
http://search.ebay.com/
_W0QQsass...QsassZacidstamp
One of the best in the business.
Our neighborhood is older, and it's great because there won't ever be a shitload of McMansions going up and remaining empty.
I've since lost about $100K in value but so what. My kids are happy young adults, my wife and I are still in love and I've got a hammock in my shaded back yard.
Shared Humanity | 05.11.08 - 12:20 pm | #
Good for you.
Haven't people ever learned that get rich quick schemes are usually doomed to failure? Or the fable of the tortoise and the hare?
r€nato, sprung | 05.11.08 - 12:26 pm | #
The tortoise is a commie!
/Kudlow
~
It's possible that those shitty clapboard houses thrown up 40 miles from any employment beyond fast food outlets won't ever again have any value.
Speaking of...
It's possible that those shitty clapboard houses thrown up 40 miles from any employment beyond fast food outlets won't ever again have any value.
Ya mean, like Maricopa AZ?
Heh. In a couple or so years, the fast food employees who work out there might even be able to buy those places... that is, if the homes haven't rotted into valueless hunks of chicken wire and stucco because the bank held them for so long, waiting for some sucker to buy them.
Fuck you Sanchez you prick. Why the fuck didn't you say this shit two years ago. You are just as guilty for this mess as Bush.
Frankly, Troutski, yer friend. | 05.11.08 - 12:27 pm | #
Plus he still claims we were justified going in.
Asshole.
Our neighborhood is older, and it's great because there won't ever be a shitload of McMansions going up and remaining empty.
ditto, here.
Maybe you're a lot smarter now Wolfie, but the rest of us were screaming 5 years ago that this bad was going to happen and you marginalized us. So stop this "we" shit Wolf.
I'm gonna go do some shit. Later, all.
Wait till the democrats take the white house in January. Wolfie will be blaming the entire fiasco on Clinton and Kerry.
Guettinger lives on Arena Way in rural Livingston, where he moved a few years ago with his wife and kids because he couldn't bear the thought of his sons growing up in an unsafe Bay Area neighborhood.
Beyond dumb.
Wolf: Senator Graham says you repeatedly told him you had enough troops. Is he wrong?
Sanchez: No, I did tell him that. I was wrong.
Wolf: . . .
That's it. Sponge Bob Square Pants is now on the toob instead of that prick Wolf Blitzer.
Fuck you Sanchez you prick. Why the fuck didn't you say this shit two years ago. You are just as guilty for this mess as Bush.
Ricardo Sanchez is a torturer who is trying to save his own ass.
dealer cost on a Piaggio is probably still 20% higher than an equivalent Kymco at MSRP
Good point.
Ricardo Sanchez is a torturer who is trying to save his own ass.
Well, there is that.
How does BlueAmerica and Vote Vets feel about being told to close up shop and give it up for the Obama campaign to take care of....
Sanchez: Based on what we knew, or thought we knew, invading was the only option.
Kamal: I destroyed everything in 1995. Then I got the hell out of there.
I don't know anything about the guy, but if you buy an investment house in Santa Cruz and you're *not* renting it out, you're just insane. Between the college students in the school year and the tourist rentals in summer, rental stock is hard to come by and the prices are sky-high. Some friends of mine near the university are paying around $3000 a month.
Wasn't Sanchez the one they promoted from a one star to a three star almost overnight?
Hi again peeps,
I've got Weekend Mountain Blogging.
HoneyBear Kelly! Tomorrow is a holiday.
have heard from several sources that the Obama campaign is sending out signals to donors, specifically at last weekend's Democracy Alliance convention, to stop giving to outside groups.
I was asked if I would debate Graham. I said no, that Graham has no answers to any issue before us worth debating.
A pleasure to see you Nattering on, Marcellina!
Thank you Marcellina.
Alas I still have to go in early.
Guettinger lives on Arena Way in rural Livingston, where he moved a few years ago with his wife and kids because he couldn't bear the thought of his sons growing up in an unsafe Bay Area neighborhood.
Beyond dumb.
Stunt Woman | 05.11.08 - 12:31 pm | #
I live in a suburb adjacent to Chicago. It was built in the early 1900's and is about 20% black. There are three mass transit rail options to get to the Loop. People ask me if it is dangerous. Only if exploding real estate prices can kill.
I said no
That was foolish.
In far less than 50 years, the vast majority of the exurbs will be the new urban slums.
rural Livingston, where he moved a few years ago with his wife and kids because he couldn't bear the thought of his sons growing up in an unsafe Bay Area neighborhood.
We had a traffic accident yesterday that killed a 89 yo woman and severely injured several other seniors.
Because traffic accidents are not a leading cause of death in this country.
20 years ago i stayed at a friend of a friends house in manhattan beach, ca, about a block off the oceanfront. dude had one of those negative amorts way back then. iirc, at the time the house was worth about $750,000 and his payment was only $2200/month.
never made any sense to me, but they've apparently been doing that kind of financing for a long time.
That was foolish.
I don't give a shit what your dumb ass has to say on the subject.
A pleasure to see you Nattering on
Heh. That's the name of the village of course. It's right next to Mutters, and I'm not making this up!
That was foolish.
annie | 05.11.08 - 12:38 pm | #
Absolutely. We should always look to a fat bearded Aggie transvestite for wisdom....
Guettinger lives on Arena Way in rural Livingston, where he moved a few years ago with his wife and kids because he couldn't bear the thought of his sons growing up in an unsafe Bay Area neighborhood.
That's shorthand for "black folks within 10 blocks of me", isn't it?
Marcellina I was trying to post a comment over at your bloggie.
I love the mountain pics and that one of you in costume.
Glad the performance turned out so well.
It's right next to Mutters, and I'm not making this up!
Marcellina
________________________________
Next you'll claim they're both down the road from Drivelz, I suppose.
That's shorthand for "black folks within 10 blocks of me", isn't it?
r€nato, sprung | 05.11.08 - 12:44 pm | #
Could be. Lord knows, in Chicago, that is one of the driving forces behind suburban development.
Sorry for the repeat blogwhore, but my nominee for Mensch of the Year is now up at the homepage.
Hell, make it Mensch of the Decade.
Scary and lazy Negroes, everywhere you look.
Forgaard and the guy in Livingston sound like idiots. There are livable places much closer to SF and SJ than merced. Forgaard's talk about not investing in his "passion" sounds dippy, which I guess is par for the crouse in Santa Cruz.
Oi Va Voi.
Nap time.
Oi Va Voi.
Wow...Soviet klezmer!
That's shorthand for "black folks within 10 blocks of me", isn't it?
"If those black folks would just act like white people I wouldn't mind them in my neighborhood so much."
Heh. That's the name of the village of course. It's right next to Mutters, and I'm not making this up!
Marcellina | Homepage | 05.11.08 - 12:42 pm | #
Just saw that picture of you in your performance costume.
Aren't you the cutest thing....
Mister Simels, you are better than any blogwhore I could dream up!
Hell, make it Mensch of the Decade.
steve hussein simels | Homepage | 05.11.08 - 12:47 pm | #
Nice.....
hi moms
gang--I need some help on this onw:
what is the name of that book by amy (i think) somebody about how the goopers seize crisis to push policies that otherwise would be seen as unacceptable. but in times of crisis, these otherwise outlandish ideas are institutionalized.
I think it is called Crisis something.
that would include katrina and changing politics of NO.
9/11 and wiretaps,
etc.
I had never even heard of Mudcrutch before.
Marcellina:
I just noticed on your blog profile that you're a Smithereens fan.'
Did you know I know those guys? Played double bills with them on numerous occasions before they got famous. Dennis, their drummer, did fill-in gigs with my old band a couple of times, and Pat's a friend, or at least he was until I gave a slightly less than rave review to their latest album.
without latent racism where would the American Real Estate industry be today? in the shitter, where
oh wait
that would be...I need some help on this one....
the book came out about 12 months ago.
Best use of go-go in a 60's video I have seen in a while
Naomi Klein?
.
Best use of go-go in a 60's video I have seen in a while
Isn't the music a little......slow for go-go dancing?
Naomi Wolf.
The Smithereens got famous?
The Smithereens! Do they still play gigs in the area?
liberals r gay
from wikipedia:
In The End of America Wolf takes a historical look at the rise of fascism, outlining the 10 steps necessary for a state to take control of individuals' lives:
Invoke a terrifying internal and external enemy.
Create secret prisons where torture takes place.
Develop a thug caste or paramilitary force not answerable to citizens.
Set up an internal surveillance system.
Harass citizens' groups.
Engage in arbitrary detention and release.
Target key individuals.
Control the press.
Treat all political dissents as traitors.
Suspend the rule of law.
The book explains how this pattern was followed in Nazi Germany and Mussolini's Italy as well as elsewhere, and compares it to the current state of affairs in American Political power since September 11, 2001.