Brad, after having lived for several years in northern New England and having a bunch of relatives from northern NH, I know that Granite Staters love to say they're "Undecided." Sometimes they actually are!
According to a poll published in today's Globe re: NH, only 16% are decided, 24% are leaning and fully 60% are still deciding. It is anybody's ball game.
Brad & Shane: The Romney campaign is intriguing. He's doing well in Iowa, where spending a lot of money can reap dividends. He's also doing well in NH (although I doubt he will win the primary), mainly because he was Gov. of an adjoining state. He's not doing very well in other states (aside from Utah), and I'm not exactly certain why. He has spent a lot more money than other candidates, relying a good deal on his own vast fortune. In some polls, Huckabee has almost caught up to Romney nationwide. Huckabee has spent LESS than any other "top tier" candidate. Because of the money factor, Romney will stay in the campaign under the "bitter end." That end probably will come on Feb. 5, "Super Tuesday." I continue to believe the Republican race will come down to my two favorite candidates, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain.
steve
Shane,
Welcome. You may have visited before but I believe this is the first time you have commented. Thank you for doing so. You are obviously a Huckabee fan. No problem. I am obviously a McCain fan. I think Huckabee could indeed have a very good showing in Iowa. First? I am not sure about that. If it was a primary, quite possibly but it is a caucus state and that comes down to money, muscle and mobilization and Romney has that in spades. I don't think Romney wins the nomination but I think he wins Iowa.
Just my opinion.
The polls will have an influence on who wins Iowa, which is not exactly a representative state for Republicans. Of the people in Iowa who i.d. themselves as Republicans, fully 39% see themselves as evangelical Christians (roughly the same percentage as SC). In NH, the number who identify themselves that way adds up to only 10%, The problem for MIke is that once he gets out of the South (and certain sections of the Midwest, the percentage of evangelical Christians is rather low. Right now, I don't see how Mike could get the nomination. He has to win something, and it doesn't look that good for him in any of the early primary states, with the possible exception of Iowa. He will not do well in NH and his chances don't look good in MI or FL. After that, it's Super Tuesday and it appears he's only ahead in AR. But I guess it's not good to count the votes before they get cast. I can't imagine McCain taking the VP slot.
steve maloney
http://camp2008victorya.blogspot.com
I think that Huckabee will end up winning Iowa - it is amazing what he has been able to do without the resources Romney has.
I personally wouldn't mind seeing a Huckabee/McCain ticket. I know the McCain campaign manager in Iowa, and she wouldn't mind seeing McCain/Huckabee - we are both agreed the only difference is the order in which the names appear 
.
John McCain proves a point that I deeply believe in: that money doesn't mean nearly as much as some "experts" think. Of course, everyone has kept dismissing McCain because he's supposedly "broke," he has continued to move up in the polls. So much for conventiona wisdom. As someone who has a long history in practical politics, I deeply believe that if a national candidate has 100 Brad Marstons and Patrick Hynes, he probably has a good chance to win. I'm writing regularly about steps another good candidate, William Russell, who's opposing John Murtha, can win a race that many "experts" think is unwinnable. I think a lot of McCain advisors would benefit from reading some of the pieces I've written about Christine Tood Whitman, who almost beat supposedly unbeatable Bill Bradley in 1990. He spent more than 10 times as much money as she did, and he won by a measley 2 points in a "Blue" state. She established the foundation for a great political career at basically the same time as she ended his presidential aspirations. With the rise of cable and the Internet, the need to spend a gazillion dollars on TV commercials has faded. Again, the "conventional wisdom" is much more conventional than it is wise. It could very well be that the Republican race could come down to a battle between Giuliani and McCain. John McCain proves a point that I deeply believe in: that money doesn't mean nearly as much as some "experts" think. Of course, everyone has kept dismissing McCain because he's supposedly "broke," he has continued to move up in the polls. So much for conventiona wisdom. As someone who has a long history in practical politics, I deeply believe that if a national candidate has 100 Brad Marstons and Patrick Hynes, he probably has a good chance to win. I'm writing regularly about steps another good candidate, William Russell, who's opposing John Murtha, can win a race that many "experts" think is unwinnable. I think a lot of McCain advisors would benefit from reading some of the pieces I've written about Christine Tood Whitman, who almost beat supposedly unbeatable Bill Bradley in 1990. He spent more than 10 times as much money as she did, and he won by a measley 2 points in a "Blue" state. She established the foundation for a great political career at basically the same time as she ended his presidential aspirations. With the rise of cable and the Internet, the need to spend a gazillion dollars on TV commercials has faded. Again, the "conventional wisdom" is much more conventional than it is wise. It could very well be that the Republican race could come down to a battle between Giuliani and McCain. John McCain proves a point that I deeply believe in: that money doesn't mean nearly as much as some "experts" think. Of course, everyone has kept dismissing McCain because he's supposedly "broke," he has continued to move up in the polls. So much for conventiona wisdom. As someone who has a long hist
Let's Play Hardball with Snowball!
http://hickeysite.blogspot.com/2...s-so-
thats.html
Hey Steve,
Thanks for the kind words. We are less than 60 days out in NH and in many ways it still feels early.
An excellent column, Brad. In the words of the immortal Anonymous, "It ain't over till it's over." I'm obsessed with polls in the same way some Americans are obsessed with Paris Hilton. But I don't really believe either. When people tell you that a poll has a margin of error of 6% (especially this early in the game), they're blowing smoke. The "margin of error" would be, oh, zero if they really believed in it.
As particular elections grow nearer, the polls usually get better. Anyway, I never believed McCain was finished. He's too tough to label in that way. Also, most people with any sense at least LIKE John McCain.In politics, "like" counts for a lot.
steve maloney
http://camp2008victorya.blogspot.com
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