Good Article Katy.
I guess Chavez is afraid of losing some space.
Even tough I really dislike Rosales, I think UNT will gain a lot of power on November. Their lineup in Caracas looks very strong, and so do some of their regional leaders. They will most likely also win Zulia and the alcaldia de Maracaibo.
Im still waiting to see what PJ will present. But it seems like the opposition "unitary" candidates will be decided a dedo by Rosales and Ravell (from Globovision).
The more things change... the more they stay the same.
Great post, Katy.
If Chávez's ego is key to understanding the importance of November elections to him, it's also the key to understanding why he'd underfund (30%!) even his own governors and mayors -- can't let anyone else shine, can he?
Off topic:
Hands over the world...
http://demalamadre.blogspot.com/...as-
extraas.html
Katy, I think you've got it wrong. The strategy has nothing to do with narcissistic sentiments. It is simply a strategy to stay in power forever.
I wrote a post that has to do with it.
http://www.blogger.com/post-
edit...191263923606699
Bruni I think that is not the correct link.
una perlita ... hidden camera w/English subtitles shot in Caracas public hospital **THIS WAS NOT SHOT IN CUBA**
http://www.venezuelapress.com/20...-pesimo-estado/
required reading on Rodriguez Chacin (Chavez' point man w/FARC):
http://caracasgringo.blogspot.co...s-all-
here.html
Katy
Ego is one part of the equation, another part is Chavez' paranoia. He can't bear losing even a little bit of power as it can signify the beginning of a snow ball effect against him. The regional elections is also the craddle where future leaders will spring to challenge his power.
What is also worth noticing is the negativity of Chavez' message. It's a fear campaign that appears to be really misguided. I don't think that kind of message will resonate with the population and gain him a lot of support. Conceivably, it could even do just the opposite.
Could it be that he needs Fidel's counsel now more than ever? On his own he seems lost and without ideas.
una perlita ... hidden camera w/English subtitles shot in Caracas public hospital **THIS WAS NOT SHOT IN CUBA**
http://www.venezuelapress.com/20...-pesimo-estado/
Phil Winfield | 05.15.08 - 1:36 am | #
my god
Katy, excellent post. Bravo. I have some relatives who are engineers and who were working for social programmes in an opposition state.
I know from them countless stories about how the national government STOPPED time after time sending the money that was long due to their state. The Chavez regime did that many times and it made all kinds of tricks to send less money than it should send. The consequence was that social programmes carried out by the provinces had to be often stopped when they did not have more money or my relatives as well as many other professionals had to spend countless weeks begging international organizations to lend some money while they waiting for the central government to respond (no, the international organizations were not CIA, as the lefties would instantly jump to say, it was UN stuff and the like).
Expect more of the same story now
I wonder if there is a way to call the attention to the International community on this issue. It will be a permanent thing in the years to come.
"Each year, the budget assumes an average price of oil that is much lower than the market price, thereby underestimating the level of income that has to be shared with state and local governments."
True, but it also assumes inflated oil production, which doesn't make up for the shortfall, but does mitigate it somewhat.
But that really is a side issue, and states and cities have been getting less than their full share for years now. It's always been about taking more for the central government, so that more things can be done in the name of Chavez. As Bruni notes, that's not just about his ego.
"The effect of likely opposition gains on chavismo is minimal"
In practical terms, this is true, and for more than the reasons you gave. But the psychological effects can't be easily predicted, and will certainly be the most interesting to watch.
"But the psychological effects can't be easily predicted"
Well, but it would be good to predict what possible things Chavismo will try to do: it is not only about the states getting less money than they should, it is that Chavez will again simply retain the little money due to the opposition states under some silly excuse time after time, provoking lots of works done by the opposition governments to be stopped in the middle. He has done this before and he shall do it again and we need be prepared for that.
That will make people be very angry with the states and they will attribute the lack of funding or the sudden stoppage of work to other people than Chavez.
How can this situation be prevented? I do not know. The masses do not read Notitarde or El Universal and much less do they have inside information from
frustrated local engineers and officials.
The mass needs a clear message about how the Fat Man in the Palace will try to suffocate opposition states by completely illegal retention of fonds.
Bruni,
First off, the link to your excellent post is
http://cuentosintrascendentes.bl...8/05/dj-
vu.html
You know, I thought about your point (that this is just a strategy to prevent the emergence of new leadership). Frankly, I don't buy it. It is inevitable that the opposition will gain some in the next elections, I simply see no way he can do anything about that. And once the opposition has a few people in place, they will be able to flesh out emerging leaders. Let's remember that our disaster in the previous regional elections did not prevent the emergence of new leadership such as Lopez, Capriles, Rosales, etc. (yes, they are faulty leaders, but they gained prominence nonetheless).
However, there is a meta-point here, an assumption that your post relies on that I simply disagree with. Regional leaders, the children of decentralization, have proven time and again that they cannot translate their local success on to the national stage. The road to power is littered with the political corpses of those who thought they could go from being mayor of X or governor of Y to Miraflores or beyond. Think of Alvarez Paz, Fermín, Andrés Velásquez, Salas Romer, Irene Sáez, Enrique Mendoza, Manuel Rosales, Antonio Ledezma... the list goes on and on. I would dare say that the last regional caudillo to reach power was Cipriano Castro!
The reasons for this are not clear to me. Perhaps regional rivalries prevent someone from Cumaná from voting for someone from San Cristóbal. Perhaps the lack of political parties has made it impossible for regional leaders to form a national platform. Who knows, but it is what it is.
So in effect, the regional elections are not a real challenge to Chávez's rule. At least I don't see it that way.
The other aspect I thought about was that Chávez would want a big success in regional elections to demoralize the opposition and use it as a springboard for a future referendum on the Constitution, so he can finally get rid of term limits. However, as we saw already, success in one election does not easily translate into success in a Constitutional Referendum. After all, Chavez did lose 3 milliion votes in less than a year.
So I really see no reason for Chávez to be placing all his eggs on this very wobbly basket. I mean, I can understand that the government would *want* to do well in Regional Elections, but the bar he is setting for himself is too high, it's almost a recipe for failure. And to me, it's all because of his ego.
AIO,
Precisely, the psychological effects would be important, but a smart way to deal with that would be to minimize its importance. On the contrary, Chávez is doing exactly the opposite!
Whatever happens in November, one of the headlines will read that the opposition gained a few governorships and mayor's offices. That's amost a fact. So in essence, chavismo is already assured of failure at some level.
Yes, it is possible that chavismo will gain a majority of votes, and it will serve to partly reverse the idea that Chávez has lost the majority. But it's also very likely that they won't, and that they will lose key geographic areas.
Finally,I haven't even gotten into the whole issue of what it does for chavista voters. If you're a chavista voter and you're tired of your chavista mayor, and you want your community to run well, you want the garbage to be picked up, you want more cops on the streets, etc., wouldn't you like it if your leader were talking about those issues instead of the importance of the vote for his revolution and for civil wars and breakway republics that exist only in his head?
In a way, Chávez's strategy is exactly the opposite of what voters are asking for right now. To be quite honest, I'm starting to think that Chávez has lost his political instinct.
Kepler...the new title is Fat Dispatcher in the Palace..he is always telling people where they can go.
I don't like to see outsiders stepping it to help. It takes the pressure of the locals holding the Dispatcher responsible.
BTW
A welcome new addition to the world of English-language blogger on Venezuela: Caracas Gringo.
I liked his take on April 11th, it is very well written. You should check it out:
http://caracasgringo.blogspot.co...tory-
of_12.html
and
http://caracasgringo.blogspot.co...history-
of.html
Anonymous 2,
Outsiders?
Also, don't miss Caracas Gringo's take on Rodríguez Chacín. Interesting stuff:
http://caracasgringo.blogspot.co...s-all-
here.html
Imagine how the map would look if the opposition were to win Bolivar State (which is highly improbably thanks to...whatever):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Ima...ts_by_State.PNG
THAT would be have a psychological effect.
Katy: Chavez's main slogan in 06 was something like "votar por Rosales es votar por el diablo". He 'got' 7 million votes...
Katy, thank you for correcting the link.
Hmmm, I don't know. The guy has a big ego, that's right but I have for years thought that Chavez does not do something for nothing.
Every single step is thought of.
Sometimes he goes ahead too quickly and then realizes his mistake and backtracks but he had a clear intention to start with.
In fact, the Reform, was a mistake for him. For the first time he did not followed his own plan and he lost (remember he said that he would call a Referendum in 2010)
http://cuentosintrascendentes.bl...es-
captulo.html
How can you explain the Russian list? He knows that Lopez will win in Caracas. How can you explain the Chavez family feud in Barinas (Argenis vs Adán)?
Remember, EVERYTHING that Chavez does has a single purpose: stay in power forever. What he is doing, in the way he is doing it has that purpose and has been thought of.
I do think Chavez has lost his olfato politico. Every day he digs himself into a deeper hole.
Did anyone see yesterdays Cadena where he mentioned war with Colombia?
He already lost a lot of support because of his relationship to the FARC and he wants to keep pushing the subject?
Chavez is afraid of losing anything, because he knows that whatever he loses is only the beginning.
Kelper..Outsiders are those who come to a foreign country and do work which belongs and is the responsibility of the local people. The local people need to own their own problem if change is to take place. Foreigners tend to give "hand-outs" instead of a "helping hand". There is a difference. It is ok to give the shirt off your back if you have a problem such as the Vargas mud slides but when one is working on a chronic problem then a helping hand is required. As Lawrence Summers, ex president of Harvard, says.."No one ever washes a rental car."
If the Dispatcher promised these folks money and then doesn't give it then he should be held responsible not the UN or some other NGO.
I do think Chavez has lost his olfato politico. Every day he digs himself into a deeper hole.
Tank, his 'olfato político' was Fidel... no more Fidel whispering on his ears and he's been doing and saying the wrong things, most of the time.
Katy, I know what you mean, because I understand the logic that gets you to that place. It's just that Chavez doesn't operate by the same logic. However, it's possible that his different behavior represents a change in tactics, and that he's perhaps seeking a new way to escalate or focus the conflict. He knows he's going to lose something, but he's setting it up to spin it into a different kind of win. I don't see what, but I'm sure he sees something.
Today is not gonna be a good day for Chavez, Correa and Evo.
"Regional leaders, the children of decentralization, have proven time and again that they cannot translate their local success on to the national stage...Think of Alvarez Paz, Fermín, Andrés Velásquez, Salas Romer, Irene Sáez, Enrique Mendoza, Manuel Rosales, Antonio Ledezma..."
Hmmmm. Not a particularly impressive bunch. In several cases (Rosales, Salas Romer), their accomplishments at the regional level were the only thing that gave their candidacies credibility, and their failures had mostly to do with the moment and their opponent's popularity, rather than (I think) suspicion of regional differences.
I hope that things change in the years to come, although I recognize that being a mayor/governor under Chávez does not necessarily provide the ideal environment in which to take great strides forward.
Well Lucía, I guess we're waiting for that special mayor or governor to come and break this awful streak that locals have at the national level. But you're right, their failure may point more at their individual (and collective) failings rather than some underlying cultural/institutional impediment.
I, for one, ain't holding my breath for some in the next batch...
http://
www.lideresenvenezuela.co...dezenglish.html
These regional elections are far more important than one may think whether or not regional or local governments have a lot or little budget. These people are far closer to the common people problems than Chavez will ever be, a big win by the oppo is a spanner in the revolutionary machine. Add to that a possible "revocatorio" for the national assembly latter on and the pieces under his thumb will be slipping away one by one. Not good! In this I agree with Heinz Dieterich, one of the ideologues of the regime who wrote an article a few weeks ago on just this topic. He thinks that a unique situation where Chavez is in control of all government institutions is coming to an end. This is probably why the man is obsessed with the regional elections and he is right to be.
Good point Charly.
I guess Chavez knows that if he didnt accomplish his goals while he had control over all goverment institutions its just going to be so much more harder to get anything accomplished when you dont have it.
The best case scenario, Chavez will lose the most populated states and the most important mayors.
Anonymous,
I was not talking about foreigners being responsible for what Chavez does. I meant local governments have had to borrow from foreign agencies because Chavez was on purpose not sending the money due to them by law. It was either that or closing shop or protesting against the government and going to the press to denounce what Chavez was doing (retaining money). This latter they tried many times but the masses did not understand it because they often blamed the local governments (even if the culprit was Hugo)
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