Katy,
Interesting points. However, do you really think that this scandal will not sway Ni-Ni voters? I find that hard to swallow considering the millions of nationalized Colombians in Venezuela and their decendants.
Also, the border states such as Tachira, Zulia, etc will now be even harder for Chavismo to win. This people will be reluctant to support a goverment party that openly supports the FARC.
The Armed Forces are probably growing even more unhappy.
I cant think of anything worse that could happen to Chavismo outside of a coup. The more Chavez tries to fight the Colombian goverment the more support he will lose, but he cant accept that he supports the FARC. Its a lose-lose for Chavismo.
Tank
I hope you're right. However, I haven't seen the FARC links pop up in any significant way in recent polls. If it does pop up, it's an issue that matters to those who were already convinced and/or to those who were already voting against Chávez for some other reasons.
Interesting thoughts Katy, however I make dulce de lechosa with Splenda, so I might serve myself a bit more.
I like when you say:
"
As we saw in the second part of last year, the President finds it hard to walk and chew gum at the same time," Very important.His mind tends to discombobulate very easily.
His tirade against interpol( "President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela swiftly went on the counterattack with a barrage of insults issued from Caracas. He called Mr. Noble, an American lawyer and former Treasury Department official, a “gringo policeman” and an “international vagabond.” Mr. Chávez also called the Interpol report a “show of clowns.”) " was humorous in light of :
http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/news/294
I do realize the interests that many have in preserving the Status quo, but at some point they might feel intimidated..and Chavez himself is likely continue his deteriorating mental state, as he is more and more cornered.
I would love to see the Colombians play out the strategy you describe. It would be delicious -forget Chavez- go after the middle-men and people inhis inner circle and go after them hard! The shit will still splatter onto the Supreme Leader....Could this laptop be the 'Black Swan' of the Chavez regime? I mean which analyst could have forecasted this situation a year ago. I personally have revised my probability of having Chavez as President until 2050 down from 80% to 10%.......
Well Katy... I have not seen a single poll.. so I cant tell you. Its just what common sense tells me.
Pero bueno.. el sentido comun es el menos comun de los sentidos.
"...and the scandal, if left as is, may very well go away. ",
"...I have yet to see evidence that this scandal is hurting the government..."
"... This is not to say that they couldn't BE CONVINCED TO CARE. After all, a cover-up of the massacre of Venezuelans is something that anyone can understand and be apalled by...",
"It's a real disgrace, and I hope I'm wrong, but the short-term fallout from all this is likely to be small."
BY kATY
I also hope you are wrong, but as long as the politicos fight for the empty bottles of the little municipios, la metastasis del estado continua, y peor, la descomposicion promovida de todos los valores de la cociedad se exponencia, en la orgia de dinero mal habido y repartido de manera clientelal a todo nivel.
La nacion se sigue perdiendo, and all you can say is that we will surelly get wig wins in the coming elections.
Katy do you trust the CNE?, do you trust your armed forces?, DO YOU TRUST YOUR OPPO LEADERS telling people what to do on the night of november 23, 2008?
From my experience, organizing the voters to vote and "defend" thir choice is the way to go! but if you do not have the necesary force to make your rights be withheld, you will be steped upon, again.
I wish our opposition, unlike Chavez (katy dixit) is able to mascar chicle y caminar, is ready to make use of this scandal and to exploit its implication while they dance the electoral dance, and most importantly, they get ready for what needs to be done to take down this regime.
Regards,
Thanks for the blog.
Katy -- thanks for the post.
I think any day Chávez is belligerently issuing threats and denying accusations and sounding generally unhinged is a bad day for him, politically.
I really wish people would drop the euphemisms about "doing what needs to be done". You want a coup. Let's be open about it.
And it should not, and will not, happen, for the following reasons:
Chavismo, although a minority, is still the largest minority in the political arena. The nation as a while may not be as blindly behind Chávez as it once was, but they are still the main player.
As such, a coup (or a "popular uprising", or a "restoration of democracy" if you wanna play the chavista Vensoc game) is doomed to fail, simply because the people will not get behind it. And if it succeeds, it will be through the use of repression, leaving us with a dictatorial government that uses the weapons of the State to supress dissent. Which would be exactly what chavismo is right now.
Personally, I don't think Augusto Pinochet is better than Josef Stalin, just as I don't think George Bush is better than Vladimir Putin. Some people in the opposition camp, who really ought to know better, seem to still believe a strongman is what the country needs, just not one from the left. The same misguided caudillo-worship that made them support Chávez in the early stages (and you know who you are), now makes them believe not that the whole concept of the authoritarian leader is wrong, but that it's just a matter of finding the right kind of strongman.
And that is why our country is doomed. The long, painful slide into the fourth world started not in December of 1998, but in April of 2002. We just don't learn. Chávez is a symptom, not the disease. He's nowhere near as dangerous as our fixation with quick and dirty solutions and fatigues-clad messiahs.
What was the single strongest blow we have dealt Chávez since he returned in April 2002? The defeat of his reform proposal. Not Altamira Square. Not abstentionism. Not the CNR's delusional rantings. An electoral victory, corrupted system or not.
Chávez is a street tough. Step into illegality, and you have entered his turf. He will demolish you. Adhere to the rules, and he has nowhere to go. If we got over our quintessentially latin American "viveza criolla" fetish and acted like adults, Hugo would be a lot weaker than he already is.
EA,
Thanks for that, well put.
"What was the single strongest blow we have dealt Chávez since he returned in April 2002? The defeat of his reform proposal."
We dealt no blow EA. Chavez lost the vote we did not win it. Don't count that as our victory.
We dealt no blow EA. Chavez lost the vote we did not win it. Don't count that as our victory.
Spin it any way you want. The defeat of the reform proposal would have been impossible without the nullification of the abstentionist movement. Had that not happened, the reform would have been approved, and we would be living in Hugoslavia for good.
Check number of votes for the oppo camp in 06 and 07 and then check number of votes for chavez in 06 and 07.
Nullification of the abstentionist movement you say? Give me a break...
And BTW, according to your own argument about our idiosyncrasy, that country formerly known as Venezuela is Hugoslavia, in case you haven't realised.
I am afraid Katy is right.
Don't ever underestimate the capacity of Venezuelans to shoot themselves in their feet as long as they have enough Polar or whiskey and petrol to live through this very day.
Most ninis don't care a bit about anything that is 1 km away from them and, to be honest and that is the same for a huge amount of people from the Chavista or opposition camps.
If many oppos criticize what Chavez does elsewhere, if many Chavistas criticize what a Western country is doing, it is only because of what the head of the cheerleader team tells them to do.
The idea of diverting His Nibs to external concerns is great to give him a good slap in the regional elections.
Golpista (1992), facista (Norberto Ceresole) and now terorrista (Reyes notebooks), the guy has got what we call in poker, a full house.
Nullification of the abstentionist movement you say? Give me a break...
300,000 new votes (assuming everything else to have remained equal) which put us over the top sound like success to me. True enough, three million chavistas stayed home, compared to 2006. But if my uncle were a woman, he'd be my aunt. That's neither here nor there. We campaigned to get out the vote, and it paid off when it counted. What have the CNR and the guapetones de cyber got to show for their effforts to "do what needs to be done"?
And BTW, according to your own argument about our idiosyncrasy, that country formerly known as Venezuela is Hugoslavia, in case you haven't realised.
No. It could get much worse. And the sad part, and the point of my entire rant, is that Hugo Chávez is not likely to be the one to bring about disaster.
There is a shade of greys between black and white.
"Do what needs to be done" doesn't necessarily mean a coup. It means presenting an unified front and putting the country's needs before their parties needs.
The 2D wasnt a victory. We accepted a 1% margin and opened Pandora's box. We will never be able to challenge the CNE's authority when we accept favorable results and contest the negative ones. Chavez knows that.
The big winners on 2D are Federico Ravell, Manuel Rosales and UNT and they will be cashing on their winnings during the Regional Elections. This is about money and power. (The Alcaldia de Chacao has a large budget than some states). Yes we avoided the "constitution", but would life be different TODAY in Caracas if the constitution has passed? In case you haven't noticed, a lot of the things on the "denied" constitution are already implemented and Chavez has 5 years to figure out how to stay in power.
UNT has basically squashed the rest of the opposition and claimed the student movement as their own. They own the media and they will select the candidates a "dedo" (even tough some of their candidates are the best choices).
Some people beleive Venezuela needs a Pinochet, and maybe it does. Then again, some people think Chavez is the best thing ever. The point is, most Ni-Ni's dont bother to vote because they dont care for the goverment, or the opposition. At the end of the day, life is going to be just the same... Venezuela hasnt changed as much as some people think it has.
Some folks are so out of touch with the Venezuelan reality that they claim that the goverment shoulnt "subsidize gas". Why the hell not, its the only thing we get out of our "rich" goverment. In case you havent noticed our police sucks, the firefighters dont work, the hospitals are horrible and our army is fat.
Most Venezuelans want change, and most of us dont care if it comes trough elections or as a result of a military coup. A "El Pueblo" le sabe a bola... thats why you have so many ni-ni's. We are not inmature, we are not polar drinking monkeys.. we just dont beleive in the "democracy" most intelectuals talk about. Specially not here, the land where anything is possible.
** Please forgive my spelling errors! (typing in this box sucks... and I dont want to open word)
There is another important international effect: This should signify the end of the expansion of the Bolivarian Movement. Foreign government will be more willing and justified to crackdown and keep under strict scrutiny the different activities and Bolivarian circles abroad.
I like your desk Katy, mine.. is between the pantry and the laundry room
;P
$128 per barrel means Mrs Merkel will grin and shake with Chavez for the cameras. It's all about oil
Katy
Since this morning I got curious about the press coverage of Chavez I did not write much about the implications. I thought about doing that tomorrow but procrastination does pay off on occasion: since I am about 99% in agreement with what you wrote (you know, I am a contrarian, so surely I can find a 1% somewhere) I have no need to write an extra post, I just need to link to you. Instead I can write installment 4 of my Delta Amacuro saga, where by the way tea has never been heard of.
I think that unfortunately you are right. But I guess that it will all depend how willing the opposition will be to make an issue of the whole thing. If they think that it is more important to be elected concejal de Elorza than having a president running hand in hand with terrorists, then we probably deserve what is coming our way.
Props to Escualidus A. for his comments.
The abstentionists were whiny, un-democratic and the subject of widespread disdain both within Venezuela and abroad. They never had support outside of certain opposition elite circles -- and for good reason.
It's true that Chávez's new political vulnerabilities are due more to own-goals than to brilliant opposition manoevering. But I admire some (not all) of the opposition leaders -- who doggedly try to make electoral politics work, facing low funds, no access to nationwide television broadcasts, cranky and rigid elites, and a fractious coalition.
The vote gets out whether you campaign for it or not. Fact is the oppo vote is formed by a highly mobilised bunch, that, at the end of the day, will go out and sign, and sign again, and vote and vote again to get rid of Chavez, even if it means to vote for a totally unknown figure such as Rosales.
So allow me to not count this as a victory. Victory will be 7 million oppo votes. Victory will be having oppo witnesses in every single mesa in the country at the time of counting. Victory will be demanding the CNE to act legally. Therefore, and borrowing from you, spin it whichever way you like, fact is we haven't won a thing.
As per ninis, this whole notion of participation of 100% of electoral roll exists only in Caracas Chronicles' sterile democratic discussions. Perhaps I am wrong and somebody can show a few examples of such. Cuba does not count...
Lucia
Are you talking of any political party in particular? 
Daniel: Who? Me?!
Alek,
I think its more likely to expect abstention to increase on the Chavismo side and decrease on the Oppo side. You will always have the "Ni-Nis" that dont care.
As Chavez keeps digging himself in, some of his supporters might be tempted to stay home next elections (a la 2D). The Oppo numbers will probably increase a bit but they will be highly motivated to vote.
Its still democracy...
Lucia,
I dont know what there is to admire from the Venezuelan opposition leaders. Everytime they have had a chance, they have dropped the ball.
Katy has done a lovely job thinking through the consequences of Laptop-gate. Let's leave the oppo parties aside for the moment!
I think the US government has cards to play here -- though I think the state sponsor of terrorism label would backfire. I'm intrigued by the idea of penalizing high-level Chavistas for their misdeeds. freezing their US-held assets, maybe, and/or limiting their travel. Baby steps, perhaps, and surely not sufficient (a cover-up of a massacre!), but a nice little start, and further headaches for a movement that has long since become mostly about protecting the perks and privileges of its own.
If I were the US Goverment I would skip Chavez and go for the Jorge Rodriguezes and Chacines of the revolution.
Freeze their bank accounts and assets, remove their visas and limit their travel.
That should cause more damage than going straight for the fat man in palace. Lets also consider most of the hardcore Chavistas don't give a rat's ass about anyone but Chavez and themselves.
That will not bring Chavez down but will put more pressure in the goverment and isolate it even more.
Done to Belarus' boys long time ago.
I don't think it will make too much difference with some LA governments but maybe with countries like Costa Rica, Peru,or Mexico , it might.
Where it might have more effect on Chavez is with his international image and the press.It is another point against him.He cares a lot about his international image and he might try to take new initiatives and focus on how to regain lost ground , which will distract him greatly from local elections,after all, his megalomania will demand this i think.
I agree with you Lucia, it is commendable that some opposition leaders keep on struggling.
Escualidus Arrechus and others:
I understand your view but think a bit differently.I think that there is a tendency in Venezuela to give too much power to caudillos and to vivos in general.But the very fact that so many people think and feel that these types are so invincible and intellingent IS the power that they receive.In other words the main power Chavez has is what is given to him by others belief in him.Take that away and he is nothing.Starting with oneself, we can believe or not believe that we can be a powerful oppositional force against him.
Extracto del artículo de Laureano en Tal Cual:
HIPERTEXTO: Las 39,5 millones de páginas en Word que contiene la computadora de Reyes, que obligarían a un lector capaz de leer cien páginas diarias a tomarse 10 mil años en leerlas todas, lo que revela, aunque Interpol no lo diga, que Reyes guardaba celosamente las transcripciones de todos los discursos del presidente Chávez.
INTERFAZ: La cara oculta de todo dirigente político, suele aparecer cuando se encuentra alguna computadora portátil.
PROGRAMA: Aló Presidente, todo lo demás es piratería.
PUERTO PARALELO: Puerto clandestino que queda al otro lado de la frontera.
EA
Great post and I agree with most of what you wrote, except with this:
"And that is why our country is doomed. The long, painful slide into the fourth world started not in December of 1998, but in April of 2002. We just don't learn. Chávez is a symptom, not the disease. He's nowhere near as dangerous as our fixation with quick and dirty solutions and fatigues-clad messiahs."
That is not a Venezuelan flaw (or disease), it's a normal human flaw. There have been strong men in every country in the world at one point or another. Practically all religions are based on a messiah or another mythic figure.
Progress in political systems is to restrain that human instinct and give more power to institutions than to persons.
That's why alternancy is important in democracy.
Nevertheless, every once in a while a carismatic enough figure, helped by the circumstances, will pop up and subvert the institutional order: Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Napoleon, Bolívar, Gandhi, etc. That is bound to happen and to a certain degree is unavoidable. History is cyclic. The challenge is to restrain the "caudillismo" and restore/rebuild the power of institutions as soon as possible.
Not an easy task, but we're not doomed, it has been done in the past several times.
EA, Katy,
You read me wrong.
What needs to be done is not a coup. I agree. what need to be done is to finally understand you do not have a legal not legitimate goverment before you, and understanding the game you face is a different one altogether.
Waht needs to be done is to understand for good that missed oportunities, like water under a bridge, are lost foreever, and Venezuela is loosing the oportunity to remain somehow civilized before we fall into an abyss taht will bring us down to madness, and will guarantee impunity to the saqueadores y corsarios que son nuestro gobierno, nuestra oposicion y nuestros medios.
The thing that needs to be doen is to understand, that only societies can change the kind of rule they give tehmselves, and the kind of rules they want to follow.
For as long as we continue to think we are having the provervial free lunch, and like someone before said, be are entiled to our cheap gas, we will not begin to change.
imperio de las leyes. ese es la verdadera revolucion.
saludos.
amieres, yes,this is it I think.
But It has to start with the individual.This is what so many do not see in my opinion.First we have to look at the many small and large ways, we practice caudillismo in our day to day lives instead of projecting it onto others.
I also believe it is a human flaw, not just a Venezuelan one, only I do think this particular flaw may be much more accentuated in some places.Look at the difference between Oriente and Los Andes.Group behavior vs individual behavior .In Germany for instance there is far more group think than in England.Group thinking societies tend to fortify following a leader more than a more individualistic society does....o sea:
-what everyone thinks as a unit and how it mimics the main authority figure becomes more important than what I or you think as an individual -
Even on the blogs one sees it.There are always those who yell:
give me some certified proof by an authority( not your own personal opinion)
this plays right into the mind set of authority worship, and caudillismo.
The first thing I did was count the stars on your flag!!! 7,no??
Its the little things that inspire me.
firepig:
"the mind set of authority worship, and caudillismo"
Exactly!
Yet leaders are always going to be necessary, even the english needed Churchill when the germans followed Hitler. Every society is always going to need leaders, followers and independent thinkers because people will follow and admire other people, be it family, friends, co-workers, bosses, celebrities, espiritual leaders and political leaders.
OTOH, institutions need to have "Esprit de Corps" so people are happy to be part of that group and think & act collectively. The stronger the Esprit de Corps the more power the institution has, the military is the quintessential example of this, but also sport teams and companies. PDVSA comes to mind.
Charismatic leaders generate that "Esprit de corps" naturally around themselves.
Leaders are the ones that make or break an institution, Hitler destroyed Germany in the end. Chavez is the ultimate institution destroyer, it is in his instinct because he wants to be a caudillo not the leader of an institution.
What makes an institution strong is the capacity to survive the replacement of it's leaders and keep functioning in time with good leaders and bad leaders. Think Catholic Church.
So what's the difference between a leader and a caudillo?
A leader will use his power and abilities to strengtheng the institution so that it can outlast him. A caudillo will try instead to take power from the institution an wrap it around himself so he can outlast and out reach the institution. The way to do this is by creating a personality cult a la Castro, Stalin, Kim Il Sung, Trujillo, etc. That's why Chavez loves to rename everything and put his giant picture everywhere.
Uhh... interesting.
Colombian army forces were in Apure performing some kind of operation. The Venezuelan goverment forced them to retreat and protested the incursion.
http://www.noticias24.com/actual...alidad/?
p=14308
I wonder if Hugo will follow trough with his words...
In other news Colombian police just found hundreths of weapons from the Venezuelan forces in the hands of the Paramilitares.
Why does the NY Times quote Mark Weisbrot and not mention that Chavez pays the man?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/1...anted=2&_r=1&
hp
You have to read the article written by The Guardian:
http://venezuela-europa.blogspot...ws-to-
read.html
There are some references there to a couple of articles on Merkel-Chavez (in German, I have no time to translate them now)
"Chávez is a symptom, not the disease"
I think he's more like a disease infecting someone who already had another one. Like getting HIV when you already have cancer. (Or pick your own diseases - there's no intended metaphor in my specific choices.)
I would say he's like the more virulent strain of the disease run amok. Curing it won't make the other similar diseases go away, it will just get rid of the nastiest one and maybe in the process we'll convince ourselves we really need to cure ourselves before we go through another mutation.
There you go, FC - he's the drug resistant mutation. That metaphor explains why he won't resign when the country is falling apart, like democratic leaders in so many other places.
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