I think this is a lose lose situation for the Jays . They're not going anywhere due to Wells, (Rios to a lesser extend but it's not nearly as absurd) in fact, the situation is sooo bad that whatever prospects they get for Roy Halladay would probably nearing FA or even FA already by the time the Jays recover from the Wells contract.
Just how bad is the Wells contract? he's due for 98 million for the next 5 year!!! right now he's playing at a -2 WAR rate for the entire season!!! a -2 WAR player is roughly worth a NEGATIVE 10 M, if he plays at this rate for the next 5 year he would roughly be worth a unfathomable NEGATIVE 150 M, that's a hilarious -30M a year!!! . even if we're generous and assume he bounce back to a 1.5 WAR ish guy. he's still roughly a -70 M player for the next 5 year!!
So just looking at that, we can basically declare the Jays out of contention for the next 5 years already! no matter WHAT they do!
The only thing that might give them a realistic shot at having a chance in the next 5 year or so is removing the Wells contract. but just from the numbers above it would seem that trading *2* Roy Halladay would be closer to the worth it take to get rid of Wells, Jesus.
And really, how would it look if the Jays traded Halladay + Wells + a ton of cash for some A ballers to the Yankees? (say.. Andrew Brackman) not very good is to put it mildly.
And if they MUST trade Wells with Halladay. then their leverage pretty much goes down to 1 or 2 teams at best.
So no matter how you look at it, the Jays are going to come out looking bad here.
Nah that is short sighted and focusing in on only one player. The Wells contract is HORRIBLE but all it basically means is that Toronto can't screw up elsewhere. They could get salary relief (which has been talked about) by dealing Rios.
Nobody is taking on Wells and the Jays are stuck with him. He's certainly not worth the money, but Toronto can only ride it out or eat the contract.
Looking at Wells aside, the Jays are in position to do rather well. They are losing a lot of contracts too despite keeping Wells. Also they have young hitting under contract for awhile with Hill, Lind & Snider. It doesn't answer all the questions with just 3 hitters, BUT, it's a start. Plus they aren't without some minor league talent. They have guys like David Cooper who could come up and play 1B which knocks down a need. They are the JP kid to catch. That leaves them with holes at SS & 3B but they could fix that.
The only way the Jays are completely screwed is by not increasing payroll to $100 million at least.
It still would suck because if they resign Halladay (which they should) to $20/yr then 40% of the $100M is going to be wrapped up in 2 players, BUT they have enough youngsters on the squad to off set it.
The remaining $60M would be averaging $2M-$3M per player of the remaining 23 men on the roster but there are enough younger guys to be able to spent $6M-$7M on a 3B possibly.
By 2011 guys like Jack Wilson, Cesar Izturis and even Scott Rolen will be back on the market at spots the Jays need. How much will they command on the open market if the economy is still tanking (which it should be)?
It's hard to say but either/or the Jays are going to have to be spot on and not overspend.
Again a lot of it is tied up with the $100M payroll but if the Jays can't make it work that way they you are right in that they have no shot at competing in the AL East. That's a different question entirely because it only serves the purpose of thinking MLB is overextended when it comes to playing competitive baseball.
The myth of the Rays or A's or Twins happens just often enough to keep the charade going.
I think you overblow the Ray's "myth" here, for one, they're pretty close to the Yankees in the standing right now, and another, they're run differential is very similar, whats more important is that if they were in ANY OTHER DIVISION , they'd easily be leading that division right now (ok maybe not the NL west but that's more of a fluke.)
As for the Jays, the guys you meantioned aren't bad, but are you honestly saying they're better than... forget about the Rays / Sox / Yanks, are they even better than the O's young core? Markakis / Jones / Wieter ? they're not! Hill is a nice player but he's not THIS good. he had a few lucky HR this year so far (looking at hit tracker , only 3 of his 20 HR is of the no doubter variety! while 7 were just enoughers) Lind is a nice slugger but you have to do it for more than half a season to convince me, who knows what Snider will do? but looking at it it's not likely to be more than what Matt Weiter will do is it?
the Jays / O's / Rays are in a similar boat. sure the Jays have a little more margin for error than the Rays, but Wells already pass that margin by about 2-3 times by himself!
They need to COMPLETELY rob someone with Roy Halladay to have a chance, I mean getting a Jon Lester type of pitcher. or a truely truely special bat that also plays a premium position (say maybe Matt Weiter type, or Jesus Montero if you roll the dice that he can stay at C) those aren't likely to happen. even as valuable as Halladay is, Carrasco / Haap and Drabek etc are nice pitchers and all, but they're not likely to be truely special once.
Whatever value they can get with Roy Halladay,, it is probably not the value that would be to rid of Vernon Wells contract. I think we can agree on that. ridding Rios now would be a mistake, while he's probably overpaid in hindsight context. he is NOT someone you should just dump right now.
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