it tends to be 7-8-11%, respectively for paul in iowa, NH, SC....doesn't earn him legitamcy though....
Rob | Homepage | 12.25.07 - 5:08 pm | #

The Mainstream media is acting strangely toward Ron. They like to run stories about his rabid internet support & how "strange" he is. But, unless he's the focus of a story, they ignore him.
Bob | 12.25.07 - 9:15 pm | #

I'm not going to get all conspiratorial here, and I've been relatively critical of some aspects of the Paul campaign, but it strikes me that some of this stuff could actually help Paul in the long run. Think about it- after being repeatedly dismissed in the media as a fringe candidate, any delegates he pulls in Iowa or New Hampshire will become a bit of an upset. That then makes him one of the top two stories of that primary.

Imagine what kind of coverage he'll get if he beats Giuliani in NH (a possiblity, though not a likelihood).
Mark | Homepage | 12.25.07 - 10:55 pm | #

Nothing to see here...move along people! You are all nutso. Didn't you hear Ron Paul dropped out and is running as a libertarian.

The quirky, quixotic, longshot, no-shot, gadfly is NOT on the list, because he dropped out of the Republican race.
Eric Dondero | 12.26.07 - 9:28 am | #

Check out Realclearpolitics.com's polling charts. Paul is polling about 3-4% nationally and between 5-6% in most Iowa polls and 3-4% in most New Hampshire polls.

Any way you slice it, he's running sixth in the field

Paul has had ample opportunity and more than enough money to get his message out. Either he's not trying very hard or (more likely) it is just not selling among GOP primary voters.

Now maybe the polls are missing his voters. That's possible because the polls' criteria for "likely voters" is past participation in elections. A lot of Paul's support is presumably from people alienated from the GOP. But that's the problem; people like that are not reliable in elections.

Paul could beat the polls in the primaries, but I wouldn't bet on it. The damnable thing about pollsters is that they are prertty good at what they do.
Sean Higgins | 12.26.07 - 10:27 am | #

is that a legitamite dondero sighting at ttp?

exciting late christmas present

sean,

paul has been pretty steady at 7-8% in NH according the real clear politics poll avergaes...

in iowa he has bumped up from 3-4% a month ago to 5-7% in the past few weeks. south carolina he's been steadily rising to double digits.

personally I think he is close to his ceiling in all states as well as nationally. not to say he can't improve on those numbers come caucus or election day, but i doubt it. no doubt he likely to lose some of those voters as they pile into the booth and decide to vote for a legitamite candidate. however, i think if he pulls a 5th or 6th in iowa, and a 5th in NH (maybe a 4th), i think he could then carry that momentum into SC and have a strong showing....all guesses though.
Rob | Homepage | 12.26.07 - 10:44 am | #

Let me take one thing back. It seems I confused Paul's New Hampshire RCP numbers with Thompson's. Dyslexia thing a terrible is.
Sean Higgins | 12.26.07 - 11:43 am | #

I'm also surprised at the Dondero sighting. And a little disappointed. That's one of the many great things about this site, no dondero or Edward or Juanita or any of those other fucks who post on Hit & Run with the same old shit.
JMo | 12.27.07 - 12:55 am | #

Heh. TtP is the more exclusive troll-free lounge where the cool HnR posters hang out.
mike | 12.27.07 - 4:44 pm | #

No, I'm not above posting a meaningless filler comment to get myself into double digit comments.
Nate | 12.28.07 - 11:41 am | #