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Very nice, and fun site. As most of us here in Dis are we here at The Brimstone are concerned about end times matters especially this Avain Flu potentiality. We have put a link to your blog on our roll!
Keep up the good work!
Cavalor Epthith
Editor-in-Chief
The Dis Brimstone-Daily Pitchfork
"Hell's leading daily newspaper!"
PS, I'm just now getting up to speed with this and I wondered how you arrived at your 8-10 week figure. What exactly does one hope will happen after that time? Will it have run its course by then, or is there an expectation that it would take that long for the food supply to be reestablished? I don't really have a handle on how the quarantine is supposed to work. So 8 weeks passes and you come out of quarantine--then what?
Reverendmother, some folks advocate a full year's worth of stash, because the flu is likely to hit in two waves, with fairly major food-route disruptions in between. Others say six months, others say three. Without knowing Phantom's mind, I would guess that she arrived at a figure that seemed workable and not completely unrealistic, but acknowledged that few of us have the willpower or the money to lay up survival goods for a year.
Thanks for the info, PS. Matt and I definitely lack the funds (or space, in a small apartment) to stash more than 3 weeks worth of food, but it is good to have this info in case we get the means to form a more serious stash. Maybe we'll just move into your place and trade free babysitting for flour.
I'm with Jeni -- I really appreciate your attention to this issue. Darren and I keep talking about getting together a more organized stash of food (beyond the canned goods, pasta and juice we happen to store in the basement), and your posts are always a good reminder that we have failed to act on any of it. Just yesterday we paused in the water aisle at the grocery store, then decided to buy several gallons on a day that didn't require multiple trips between car and house in the pouring rain. (Some priorities, right?)
Good point, reverendmother. Let me explain my reasoning. I am NOT trying to plan for a total breakdown in supply systems. I'm not worried about farmers being able to bring in harvests, etc. etc. Not because there is no reason to worry -- just because I consider that level of disaster to be simply beyound what I am able or willing to plan for.
My goal is to not need to leave the house during the first major wave of infection. I say 8-10 weeks, but a 3 month supply is really what I'm shooting for.
It's definitely true, as Jody says, that a first wave is likely to be followed by a second wave of infection, and it's probably prudent to create a six-month supply of food. But again, that's simply more than I want to consider. If the worst happens, we will be prepared for the first time around. And then we will join everybody else in scrambling to prepare for the second.
Jeni, right now I'd be willing to trade the flour for the kid. That is, I'll give you the flour if you take the kid. It's been one of those days here....
The mention of "end times" in that first comment is a good example of the other thing that scares me about avian flu, besides the flu itself. I'm sure there are dreadful people someplace congratulating each other right now on the earthquake in south Asia because it must mean the Rapture is coming soon, right? And the more these calamities are seen as the work of a higher power, the less the righteous might be inclined to do to avert disaster or deal with it when it does come. I haven't bought any food stocks. Cash flow, mostly. There's no way we can spare money for two months' food.
Have you heard the argument that the 1918 flu was so lethal in large part because it mutated among the mass movements of young strong people at the end of the Great War - the trenches, hospitals, armies and so on? The scientist who I heard retailing this theory seemed to be saying that it meant the origin of that virus in birds is less significant for us that it might appear at first. Putting the case against her another scientist pointed out that viruses mutate, by definition adapting to conditions. Who knows what to think. I am glad you're taking active sensible precautions instead of feeling impotent and helpless. I'd better stop now. x x Laura
I just don't like this at all. No, I sure don't. I'm glad you're researching, though.
I want so much to follow those links, I really do, but I just can't make myself click on them ....
Maybe tomorrow, or not right before bed...
Sigh...
We did do a run to a local Buy in Bulk kind of place this weekend, and now have even put extra shelves in our basement. We have a stash that warmed my heart when I went to do laundry...
But then, I read that maybe I should have enough for 6 months..or a year!!! I think I'm hyperventilating again! And alcohol wipes...I forgot those....and masks.
..and....and.,..and...
Urp.
But a final thought---thank you Phantom, because without you we would have been completely unprepared. Mentally, I'm still unprepared, but at least I have flour.
Just a heads-up to say that the preparation sections of the Flu Wiki have become much more advanced in the weeks since I last looked. The lists of herbal supplements, links to water storage containers, etc., are all considerably more user-friendly than they used to be. That's both a good thing, and a nerve-wracking thing. Should I hit the buy button on all those pharmaceuticals now? What about the Tamiflu?
I'm feeling panicked, and I haven't even thought about what happens to my parents if this all goes down.
I've also heard that in a full blown pandemic we'd be looking at 12 to 18 months of waves of infection, so a stockpile that will get you all the way through is probably unrealistic. Like Phantom, I'm trying to stock up enough to not have to leave the house for 8 weeks minimum, ideally longer. Also, given the reliance on just in time supply chains, I wouldn't be surprised to see some very temporary glitches in the supply chain if things got really pandemic-y.
Don't forget things like extra batteries, matches, baby supplies, tissue, TP, garbage bags, vitamins, medications people might need, basic first aid stuff (band-aids, asprin, etc) pet supplies and cash (preferably small denominations). Books games toys DVDs etc to distract any little ones, too. (And big ones).
Me, I've been saying for about 15 years I'm going to read Proust, so Remembrance of Things Past is my Reading for the Apocalypse. (I understand the accepted translation is now In Search of Lost Time? Yeah, that's how long I've been saying I'm going to read Proust - my copies are actually old enough to be called Remembrance of Things Past.)
By the way, Papa Go Blue thinks that the B&D alcohol wipes are the best -- he thinks they have the largest concentration of alcohol in them.
due to my unrelenting desire to question everything, don't you think this is going overboard? it just seems very Chicken Little (no pun intended) to me. i mean no disrespect, but i don't see how it would ever be possible to NOT leave your home for months at a time, let alone have enough food and water to get you through. how am i going to get my mail, or is it assumed that the government will stop sending postal workers out to deliver? how will i see my doctor for my monthly visit? how will i get to work? how will i be able to cash my paycheck? i guess i just think this is all duct-tape-and-plastic and that we're freaking ourselves out for no reason. of course, if i end up dead due to this flu, you can say 'i told you so', but i think the scariest part of it all is the massive amount of fear that people feel, instead of the flu itself.
also, my fiance and i are able to buy groceries only once a month due to our budget. so we'd die of starvation before we'd die of the bird flu.
Well, honey bunny, no one insists that you have to believe anything we say. But these are exactly the questions that you ought to be asking yourself if you're interested in planning for a possible pandemic. What *would* you do if you can't leave the house for a month or more? Because not getting your mail would be one of the least of your problems.
of course, getting the mail is the least of my worries. but does this pandemic mean that the government will shut down? i'm a federal employee and we've heard nothing about this. i'm NOT saying that you're wrong (i hope that you don't think i am), i'm just asking questions because that's my nature.
honey bunny, my sense of the infrastructure is that if there is a genuine pandemic, people will (a) not come to work because they are sick, (b) will not come to work because they are afraid, (c) will not come to work because transportation networks (like subways) aren't running because of lack of workers, and/or (d) will not come to work because they've been told not to.
I'm talking genuine pandemic -- one out of every four or five people sick, and a highly contagious virus involved. In those cases, I would imagine that working priorities would go to essential services -- utilities, repairs, medical staff -- and the rest would be let to go hang. That would include, among other things, store workers and the like.
Plus, in the interest of containing the spread of the pandemic, I would imagine that quarantines would get slapped on most forms of transportation, particularly interstate and interregional -- which would include railroads, trucks, and airplanes -- the major means of shipping food. While immediate supplies wouldn't be affected, things like fresh fruit that wasn't grown locally would disappear from shelves pretty damn quickly -- not to mention the likelihood of panic buying (which we've all seen happen in other disasters).
Basically, the potential for chaos is pretty high under genuine pandemic conditions and somewhat less high under _perceived_ pandemic situations -- and as a result, I can see the appeal of not wanting to be diving out into the thick of it to keep one's family fed and watered, even without the added risk of getting infected.
I'm in a pretty small, remote place right now, so I'm less worried about getting infected than suffering the results of isolation should the major corridors and urban centers near us go into lockdown - and the panic of people trying to cope with this (especially since I suspect the vast majority of people are like you -- having heard little or nothing about it).
But then, I worry about things like our nation's declining infrastructures and environmental damage on the best of days, and I read a lot of sci-fi and apocalyptic fiction, so I'm used to thinking in these terms. (For example, I've been nagging D. to get a bicycle, so that we have reliable transport in the event of a gas shortage.)
I'm wondering how to stockpile enough kibble to feed two gigantic dogs. How long does it keep? Would it keep better in big plastic containers than in the sealed bag? Our three cats don't eat all that much from week to week; a case of Wysong Geriatrix would cover us for two months or so. But, oy! those dogs! We go through two huge bags of kibble a month, give or take. We're fortunate in that we have space for storing things, but I don't imagine trucking dog food to Maine would be a high priority in a pandemic.
I'd get one of those big garbage cans with the latching lids and put the bags in it. That's what my parents do for their dogs' food (two Rottweilers) and I think they can fit two bags in there. (Though they're more worried about mice than freshness.)
Wow. I scanned an article in Macleans (national Canadian news magazine) this weekend, but other than that and this post, I'd pretty much relegated the whole flu pandemic thing to the lunatic fringe. The Maclean's article downplayed the risk quite a bit, and I'm not sure I'm ready to start stockpiling supplies just yet. (They said something that discounted Canadian Sue's small Canadian city scenario, but I can't recall the details. Okay, I found the article, here's the link if you're interested http://www.macleans.ca/topstorie..._113117_113117)
I worked in federal government communications on the SARS issue when it threatened to shut down Vancouver and Toronto, and the hype and hyperbole was more frightening to me than the disease, so I must admit to being particularly cynical about this issue. But I am very interested in your perspective. Thanks.
Thanks for an opposing view, Danigirl. It's good to have both sides of the issue. Here's a working link to that Maclean's article.
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