Reader Comments
Taylor vs. Shuler based on the recent poll done?
My second guess would be Kean v. Menendez.
New Jersey Senate. Mernendez has a 0% Net Approval, and Lautenberg has a -6% approval and Corzine has a -18% approval. Kean Jr can portray Mernendez as Corzines buddy. (Which he is). It will be a close one, and honestly this is a clear toss up because of Dem leanings. At this time Kean has the advantage.
Can you post a link to the poll so Scott can post it?
Alaska Governor now that Tony Knowles is in the race. It will change from extremely weak GOP hold to extremely weak Dem gain.
http://www.newsobserver.com/659/...ory/
444750.html
Public Policy Polling of Raleigh found that voters in the 11th Congressional District prefer Democrat Heath Shuler over Taylor by a 46 percent to 42 percent margin. The survey of 687 likely voters was conducted May 22 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Also showing Taylor's support slipping is a survey by Anzalone Liszt Research, Shuler's pollster, which shows Shuler up 45 percent to 43 percent in a survey taken May 9 to 13.
Stuart Rothenberg, an analyst who writes for Roll Call magazine in Washington, says the Taylor/Shuler race may be "the best evidence that the national GOP meltdown is affecting individual Republicans."
Jarod, good call. I completely forgot that Scott hadn't made any changes based on Knowles's declaration for Alaska Gov yet.
I just thought of one more possibility, although I doubt Scott's ready to flip this one yet. CA-50. There are a lot of doomsayers on the GOP side who think Cunningham and Bush have roasted Billbray's chances. I agree with them, of course, but it will be really close.
Too late but I'll echo it being AK governor
I think the Knowles declaration is a good guess but i haven't seen enough polls to say so. Kean consistantly leads Menendez, but i have to think Jersey will pick a Democrat. I said before Indiana's 9th should be a Democrat gain as should the Ohio Senate. But if you force me to pick one, i say the Governator loses his seat in California. He trails both Dems by a couple of points and has poor approval ratings in a traditionally blue state.
I feel it is going to be the Michigan governor's race. Mr. Devos has continued to hold an edge of Jennifer Granholm. That's just what I think.
I will guess that it is a senator. I said Ohio Senator last time and I will stick with it. Weak Dem Pickup.
Man, Scott, you do know how to excite us. Your (educated) guess is as good as any of ours and you have us all yipping like little puppies.
Good job.
I agree with Logan and Jarod, Knowles in Alaska will change methinks....there is a slight chance that the Governator's plight could changetoo, but I'd say Alaska after Friday's and Monday's announcements.
In the end, Knowles lost to Lisa Murkowski... I doubt Scot'll flip this one quite yet... My guess is NC CD-11, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Michigan Governor
I would have to say the NJ Senate race. In the last change, he cited, "When balanced against the numbers, hearsay doesn't quite add up in my book." Since Kean has lead in every poll (or a vast, vast majority), precedent says that is the change.
btw, for those of you who said it is the Gop that is changing its mind about Harry Reid, what about his own constituents? From Hotline
Meet Harry Daschle?
It was only a matter of time that the perils of being in the nat'l party leadership would starting taking its toll on Harry Reid back home in NV. His job rating is under 50%, according to a new Research 2000 poll, conducted for the Reno Gazette Journal and KRNV-TV. Some more highlights:
-- 48% of Nevadans approve of the job Reid's doing compared to 41% disapprove. OK, not horrible. But these are the best numbers in this poll.
-- The pollster added this question: "Do the Democrats under Harry Reid's leadership have a workable agenda, or not?" 35% of state voters answered "yes" and 43% said "no," including 40% of indies. This means there are a chunk of NV voters who approve of the job Reid's doing as a senator but don't think he's helped the party develop a "workable agenda."
-- And then there's this question: "Does Harry Reid possess the leadership qualities to guide the Democrats to gain control of the Senate in 2006." 36% said "yes" and 46% said "no," including 20% of Dems and 44% of indies. Now, it's possible some of these Dems who don't view Reid as having the right "leadership qualities" could be simply pessimistic about the nat'l party's chances. Still, it's a result that has to be somewhat depressing to Reid partisans.
Poll numbers like this put Reid in a box. While he may be doing things that the nat'l party desperately needs done (i.e., make Senate GOPers look like they can't govern), his reputation with home-state voters as a middle-of-the-road Red-state Dem is eroding. If this storyline seems familiar, it is. It's exactly what happened to Tom Daschle. There's no perfect answer. For Reid, becoming majority leader might actually help change the minds of some NV voters who will start enjoying the fruits of Reid's power. It's not easy being a party leader who represents a swing state because by nature of the leadership position, you look partisan. And in some of these states, partisanship doesn't sit well with swing voters. If Reid's tenure as Senate Dem leader ends the same way Daschle's tenure does, it could mean that a "red state" Dem won't be picked as leader for a long time. Being personally safe politically may become a necessary job requirement.
SUSA has his approval at 51%. Not bad at all. But his numbers were in low 60s high 50s.
Wishful thinking. SD is 11th most conservative state, NV 28th -- just look at Scott's data if you don't believe me! 
Also, my perception is that while both Daschle and Reid are quite partisan (as if that is a bad thing for a party leader), Daschle is more liberal.
So, a not quite as liberal leader from a not nearly as conservative state. My advice to Harry would be to "let Reid be Reid" and let the chips fall where they may, and not to listen to Brian.
Saying that 51-49 Nevada is a "red state" is folly. South Dakota is a red state....and Daschle went down there by less than two points even when Kerry was going down by 22. Reid's in great shape....and won't even face the voters again until 2010.
It will be Alaska's Governor race, but I think North Carolina's 11th District also should switch.
California governor.
AZ-Sen to Mildly or even Moderately vulnerable
Even with out polls of a head to head match up between Murkowski and Knowles on paper I still feel that Gov. Frank's 29% approval rating speaks volumes. In regards to the '04 Senate race it sure helped daughter Lisa Murkowski that Bush was heading the ticket in what is a Republican state in Presidential elections. The political climate has changed enough that '06 doesn't look to be the best off year Republican election in recent memory.
It won't be New Jersey. Scott knows just as well as I do that polls in New Jersey favor the GOP but undecides always go strongly DEM. I haven't seen a single poll that shows either Kean or Menendez breaking the 40% mark.
Because no one has said it yet...
Illinois Governor switches from Blagojevich to Topinka.
Good one Matthias. As long as we are grasping at straws i'll pick Arizona's 8th becuase it should be mentioned.
Alaska Governor
The MSM will finally admit they have been using bogus samples in the polling data (huge advantage given to the left) and state that the Dems have little to no chance of taking back either house of Congress (sarcasm).
Right now, the MSM is reporting every day that it will take a 'miracle' for the Republicans to maintain the House. Of course, if you look at the state by state races, this is ludicrous.
As with most left wings ideas, this 'agenda-based' polling will end up back-firing (even as the 'culture of corruption' is now coming home to roost). Rather than discourage Republican turnout, they will supress their own base by making them over-confident.
This mid-term election is going to be almost more fun to watch than Bush beating Kerry by nearly 4 million votes after the "exit-polling" had Kerry winning in a rout.
Can't wait!
Ditto Alaska Governor. In Scott's predictions he stated "However, aside from Gov. Murkowski's decision, the biggest question surrounding this race concerns Knowles. If he decides to run for his old seat - which he might - things would immediately brighten further for the Democrats in this race. Without his entry, The Blogging Caesar rates this race a weak GOP hold. If he goes for it, that will have to change to weak Dem gain."
Bill, everybody in the MSM media is downplaying Democratic chances of taking back either branch of Congress. Who are these people suggesting that it would "take a miracle" for the Republicans to hold the House? I review this stuff daily and have never once heard anybody in the media say this. I suspect that in traditional Republican fashion, you're making this up.
Too clear things up. I was the first one who called it. Back on yesterdays Daily Poll Report.
Alaska goes DEM NOW!!! Knowles is running. Here's the article http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/s...p- 7693042c.html
Blaine | Email | Homepage | 05.30.06 - 1:02 am | #
All I know about Alaska is that there is an ocean of oil up there and we know exactly where to drill for it.
Put the caribou and moose in zoos somewhere, they will live longer that way. It is the humane thing to do.
Down here, in my neck of the woods, in Venezuela, gasoline is the equivalent of 19 cents a gallon. Why? Because they have it coming out of their ears. On the other hand, the U.S. is dependent on oil from some guy named "Sheik Yer Boobies" in Arabia or nut cases like Hugo Chavez, in South America.
Mark --
The WaPo has recently admitted that the Dems have a good chance to take house. The tone falls well short of the "resistance is futile" tone we get from Karl and the Rovettes.
They are also utterly fascinated with the Clinton marriage, a subject about which I don't give a rat's [backside].
Watching my Dem friends is like watching Red Sox fans -- no matter what the relative standing of the Red Sox and Yankees, it is the Red Sox fans who are always filled with angst, and the Yankee fans who are arrogant beyond belief. Draw the obvious inference about repubs.
Bill-Nobody is saying that the Democrats are going to retake either house.
the nj polling shows no trend for kean.it`s a dead heat with his ceiling at 40%, nj will stay blue.
i think cd-50 in calif may be weak democratic now. plus several races in pa. may need to be switched.
CA-50: It is quite telling when there are interior polls released by the Busby campaign and polls have yet to be released by the Bilbray campaign.
From U.S. News and World Report:
Staffers from the National Republican Congressional Committee are quietly telling GOP House members to prepare for a possible loss in the June 6 special election to fill the seat of Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now in prison for taking bribes. The Southern California district is heavily Republican, but some GOP insiders believe that Democrat Francine Busby will defeat former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray and go on to win a full term in November. More alarming some worry that a Bilbray defeat could signal the GOP's loss of control of the House. The NRCC has already pumped $3.1 million into the race. "It is becoming more and more likely," says one GOP strategist, "that Bilbray will squeak out a victory." But another longtime Republican operative isn't so sure. "This is a district we should never lose," he says. "It's the stink of Cunningham, and the Bush problem."
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/pol.../
5whisplead.htm
I have seen no polls, other than SUSA poll ( Which overestimated Busby's performance last time by 5 points or so ) that shows Dems ahead in CA-50.
BTW, since Bush is a lame duck now. I would not mind the House going Dem for this reason, it would be the best thing conservatives can hope for in the long term. Let America see how the Democrats do things. GOP has been in power long enough that America forgets about the Dems leadership or lack there of skills. And Maybe if moderates are knocked out, GOP will begin listening to its base.
just what has the gop done except cut taxes for the rich, sqeeze the middle class and kill a whole bunch of kids for nothing.i think a few years of tax and spend democrats may be a nice improvement.
John
What I want the Dems or the GOP to do is GOVERN.
I don't want the dems to go impeachment crazy to get even for Clinton. (just like some people think that the GOP impeached Clinton to get even for Nixon)
I want no debt. If a service is vital, have the courage to raise a tax to pay for it. If taxes need to be cut, have the courage to cut services to pay for it.
We'll see if either party delivers.
What time is Scott posting this change?
The suspense is killing me.
California governor. I have a hard time believing Californians are going to re-elect Arnie.
He just switched CA Gov back to WEAK GOP HOLD which i agree with. Definitely AK Gov. A poll done a few months ago shows knowles w/ a sizeable lead over Governor Frank
It should not be NJ....it is a BLUE state...and it will STAY A BLUE STATE!
What it SHOULD be is OHIO...with DEWINE OUT....it should now be a WEAK DEM GAIN!
DeWine out in Ohio? On what grounds, a single Rasmussen poll and the infamously inaccurate Zogby polls that declared Kerry the straight-out winner of the 2004 election? It takes more than that, which goes against the vast majority of polling, I might add, showing Brown ahead to declare the race. The people declaring this are akin to those saying that Kyl is anywhere near in trouble, without any poll, poll trend, or electoral trend in general, backing their assertion.
I agree. I don't think Kyl is in trouble at all. DeWine may have a tough run, but he will still come out on top. Until I see consistent polls (excluding Zogby) showing otherwise, my predictions will stay that way.
Alaska Governor to weak DEM with Knowles entering the race.
Once again, let the Ohioan explain DeWine...
He is a moderate in a polarized state...the GOP gubernatorial candidate is a right-wing conservative crusader who has alienated the left wing of his party - while the Democrat for governor is a centrist. In addition, DeWine's membership in the Gang of 14/12 has him at odds with the state's religious right - who are upset with the 'activism' in the country - and with the moderates - who see him stand up for moderation and then back down for popularity's sake.
The Democrats in Ohio are united more than ever, combination of the 2004 GOTV effort in our state mixed with our desire to retake the mansion and the Statehouse.
Ohio is becoming more and more a Democratic state - the recession has still not left our state and the Honda plant bid, if it goes poorly in the next few months, will spell doom for a GOP already riddled with a 17% approval rating.
So while conservatives are split in the state (I know a few Republicans who will NOT vote for DeWine under any circumstances), Democrats get stronger.
If people want a bellwether of where the country will end up in 2006, I believe the Brown-DeWine race will tell all. If Brown leads in October, the Democrats carry a House, maybe two. If DeWine leads in October, expect Republican retention.
My theory is that Brown will prevail in November - the fruits of change are overripe in Ohio and people are getting sick and tired of being sick and tired.
Kevin...
I will go with that...
With Ohio...so goes the nation!
I think you hit the nail on the head with many issues....
The neocons on this site are too blinded with 2000, 2002, and 2004 to talk reason to them...they really have forgotten that before those years...the Democrats controlled at least one house or both pretty much since 1945....
We will, of course, see how it plays out...but I say....count on DeWine going down for the count in November!
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