I don't know if ISU is the longest shot. I might give that to the Pitt Panthers. Yes, they can still get in the BCS if I'm looking at this right.

They'd need:
-A win over West Virginia Thanksgiving Night
-South Florida to Lose to UConn 11/26
-South Florida to Beat West Virginia Dec 3
And
-Louisville to lose either of its last two games vs the Orange or Rutgers

Pitt, WV and USF would be tied at 5-2 in the Big East and Pitt would have wins over both those teams. I'm not sure whether those 4 things are less probable than ISU winning the Big XII but its gotta be in the discussion.
PantsB | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 12:10 am | #

Pants, I thought about Pitt for that selection, but any of those Big East outcomes seemed far more likely than ISU beating Texas, which is what they'd have to do to make the BCS.
Jay | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 12:15 am | #

I found this quote funny:

But what if the Fiesta Bowl instead takes Notre Dame with that first selection? Then the Orange takes Penn State, and might the Fiesta match the Irish and the Buckeyes?

Hansen termed that a "regional" game, but those are two schools that have great tradition on a national basis.

"We're a nationally recognized program," Moos countered. "People will turn on their TV sets to watch Oregon."

Bwahahahhaa
Matt | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 12:27 am | #

Although in all the scenarios that you posted, the BCS still fulfilled it's primary goal, to have the #1 and #2 teams in the country face off in a bowl game, unlike other years where it failed miserably.

Also, if Texas were to lose, the scenarios look an awful lot like the old bowl system with the Pac 10 vs. the Big 10 in the Rose, Notre Dame in the Orange, Big 12 in the Fiesta, and SEC in the Sugar.

The BCS really was cursed from the begining by trying to have to work in the old bowl system. There biggest mistake was thinking a computer running a complex algorithm could make everyone happy. Hello Dave.

The best solution (outside a playoff) would just be to have five old guys smoking cigars go into a poorly lit room and come out with the bowl lineup. If anyone has a problem with that, they get their knee caps broken.
Tom | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 12:39 am | #

Tom,

It definitely worked out this year, although it's convenient for the BCS that only two teams are undefeated (thus far).
Jay | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 12:43 am | #

How, exactly, would Florida be a possibility to win the SEC? Georgia's already clinched the SEC East slot in the conference title game--they did so this past week with a win against Kentucky. Had they lost to Kentucky, South Carolina would have taken their spot--not UF.

With no spot in the SEC title game, I'm kind of mystified at how UF could win the SEC.
Nate | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 12:52 am | #

Yep, you're right, Nate. In my haste, I took UGA-Tech as an SEC game. If it were, Florida would have a chance to tie in the East, and win it by virtue of having beaten Georgia earlier in the season. Post is modified. Thanks for the catch.
Jay | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 12:59 am | #

just fyi, the south florida entry lists them having to beat pitt, not wvu in the "how to make the best case" column.

really great work. nice to see it all in front of you like that.
tjf | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 1:08 am | #

NP Jay--I've been obsessing about this for a few days (slow time at work). Collegefootballnews.com has a great writeup of what each team needs to do/have happen to get in. Now if they'd only remind everyone that the BCS is designed to match up the 2 most deserving teams, and not the 8 most...
Nate | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 1:23 am | #

Beat Stanford.

Stay on message.
SeanH | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 7:35 am | #

So we beat the Orange, and now we have to play the Cardinal? Anyone care to bring up any other teams that have a Crayola mascot?
Brad | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 8:22 am | #

My invaluable input is that Finite Math, at least in spring '97, was Math 104, not 101. Thank you.
Bullfrog | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 8:26 am | #

"We're a nationally recognized program," Moos countered. "People will turn on their TV sets to watch Oregon."

Sure, to laugh at those god-awful uniforms.
DJ | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 8:32 am | #

It was my understanding that there would be no math, Bullfrog.
Brad | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 8:33 am | #

Finite Math???

How did you choose which team would represent the Red Balls and which team would represent the gold urn?
brandywells | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 8:35 am | #

If the Fiesta passed on ND and the only other viable at large team other than the Irish were Ohio State, wouldn't the Orange have to take OSU and let the Irish go to the Fiesta against JoePa?
Jake | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 10:14 am | #

Jake -- I think if Fiesta passed on the Irish then the Orange would pick them immediately.
Jay | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 10:22 am | #

I don't really get that question Jake. Why would they have to take OSU? They'd jump all over the Irish for the TV ratings alone.
Brad | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 10:24 am | #

Is Louisville out of it? What if WVU loses to Pitt and USF, USF loses to UConn, and regarding Pitt, Louisville wins its last two? Shouldn't they be in the chart somewhere?

Ahh, the next 3 weeks will do wonders for clearing your chart up. . . won't it be grand?
atepesm | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 10:57 am | #

I hate all this thinking. In the spirit of Wargames, I cast my vote for M.A.D. (Mutually Assured Destruction for those who don't remember the 80's, M-M-M-Mask cartoons, and Transformers the Movie).
Brad | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 11:01 am | #

well done, Professor Falken
Terence | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 12:35 pm | #

Living here in the Pac NW, I almost hope we get to trash Oregon in the Fiesta. I've had to suffer with the losses to Oregon State for waayyy too long. Plus I wouldn't have to hear the whining for the rest of the offseason from Ducks fans, well, at least not whining about the BCS anyway. They always whine about something.
JohnWA | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 1:00 pm | #

Admittedly -- my question didn't make a heck of a lot of sense, but what I meant to imply was that if Fiesta took PSU the Orange would have to take OSU because the Fiesta wouldn't match up PSU and OSU -- yes I'm an idiot. But sometimes this crazy internet blog comment thing gets me all jacked up and I just want to say something.
Jake | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 1:17 pm | #

first, bring on stanford.

then, bring on the buckeyes.

the trashtalking has already began around columbus, 'notre dame is overrated.' 'wait till brady quinn sees aj hawk running after him.'

blah blah blah.

i'll go ahead and predict this.

nd 31
osu 14
ryan in ohio | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 1:49 pm | #

The Stanford game has me more concerned than the BCS.
IrishFan | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 1:55 pm | #

Bullfrog: Finite Math was Math 104 in Spring '76 as well.
Jersey44 | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 2:01 pm | #

"We're a nationally recognized program," Moos countered. "People will turn on their TV sets to watch Oregon."


SORRY MOOS, but a 'following' in Nevada and Montana, as well as a billboard on 7th Ave for an overrated QB a few years back DO NOT equal NATIONAL recognition.

You know you have a problem when your team is remembered MORE for their UNIs than for their play...

ALSO, scheduling more than Houston, Montana and Fresno St. just might increase your profile...

Have fun in the Holiday bowl (and thanks for laying the woodshed on OSU...)
domer95 | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 2:11 pm | #

"People will turn on their TV sets to watch Oregon..." HA!!

P.S. I own a television, but to my knowledge no one has owned a TV set since like 1959. Who says that?
Brad | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 2:40 pm | #

I am quite sure that CW won't let the lads overlook Stanford. I know it's only been 10 games with him, but I really don't think we'll see the head-scratching losses to far inferior talent that were so common during the Davieham years (and as much as I love Lou, his teams had a number of these losses too).

I'd much prefer to spend my time daydreaming how I'm going to taunt my obnoxious columbus neighbors after we drop 35 on them in the Fiesta instead of worrying about Stanford.
Scott | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 2:40 pm | #

Brad,

I had completely forgotten about MASK

Thanks for the memory.
Junior | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 2:50 pm | #

Another option following a Texas loss is LSU jumping Penn State after winning the SEC Championship. This probably puts ND in the Sugar, as the selection order would be Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, Sugar after the automatic spots are filled...

Rose: Southern Cal vs LSU
Sugar: Notre Dame vs West Virginia
Orange: Virginia Tech vs Penn State
Fiesta: Texas (or Colorado) vs Oregon
Jeff | Email | Homepage | 11.23.05 - 10:16 pm | #

If USC loses, and Texas wins out. The ND could play USC in the Fiesta.
James | Email | Homepage | 11.25.05 - 1:37 pm | #

I gotta love the blogger of one of the last independents taking a shot at conference tie breakers.

The Pac10 system (in its last year, since they go round-robin next year) makes perfect sense. Lets make it simple: if USC, UCLA and Oregon all finish with the same conference record, whos the best team of the three?

With wins over ND, Oregon, and Fresno State that team is USC.
Jerry | Email | Homepage | 11.25.05 - 11:16 pm | #