Please.....bring me Spring Ball.....please....
Brad | Email | Homepage | 02.16.06 - 1:26 pm | #

What about 4th down efficiency, say around the 4th and 9 stat line? Any info on how we did there?
Kevin | Email | Homepage | 02.16.06 - 1:34 pm | #

I'm going to cry in the corner now, thanks Kevin.

**Shakes fist at Matt Leinart
Ryan | Email | Homepage | 02.16.06 - 2:15 pm | #

I just vomited in my mouth a little after reading that. Much appreciated Kevin.
Paddy | Email | Homepage | 02.16.06 - 2:28 pm | #

Hey, it's alright. I actually kind of like knowing that USC needed a miracle to beat us. It sure beats the past years of being BLOWN AWAY by halftime. Unfortunately for us, USC's miracle came true. But hey, we always got next year.
ND101 | Email | Homepage | 02.16.06 - 2:40 pm | #

I wonder which team has the best best offense and defensive 3rd down numbers . . . Anyone want to do the leg work so I don't get in trouble for goofing off at work?

It'd be good to see how ND compares to the best of the best. . . .
atepesm | Email | Homepage | 02.16.06 - 3:06 pm | #

Thanks, Kevin. I cringe like a person about to be hacked up in Texas Chain Saw Massacre any time I hear the numbers 4th and 9 in the same sentence.

Looking at MGO yesterday, tOSU's offensive and defensive efficiencies were pretty incredible, but I don't know about best in the country.

ND's 3rd down defensive efficiencies make a lot of sense. Load up against the run in 3rd and short (except 3rd and 1 where we lack a huge run-stopping DT to knock back a big OL). Bad in middle distances to 3rd and 10 due to having to cover both short and long receivers (plus the mobile QB's in the MSU and tOSU games). Good once the distance becomes too long for a short pass or a run by the QB.

CW and Minter should get this fixed, especially with experience returning on the D.
JohnWA | Email | Homepage | 02.16.06 - 3:18 pm | #

The 3rd down data set is interesting in that it confirms another observation, which is that the key to playing defense is to force teams to travel long fields and face at least a couple of 3rd downs. Even on 3rd and 1 and 3rd and 2 the chances of converting are only 70% and 60% respectively. Consequently, there's only a 42% chance that a team will convert both a 3rd and 1 and 3rd and 2 in sequence. If you keep putting teams in 3rd down, their drives will usually stall. OTOH, when a team converts a huge fraction of its 3rd downs (like OSU did) it will almost always win.
omahadomer | Email | Homepage | 02.16.06 - 4:48 pm | #

Not that I'm down on Carufel (I did see him play and I wasn't exactly floored with him) but the State of Minnesota only had 15 Div-I signings. They signed w/ Iowa, Fredo College, Iowa St, the Gophers (5 guys), Wisonsin (3), Purdue, and Wyoming (2). Not exactly stiff competition. The two guys mentioned in the story did not go DI.
paddy | Email | Homepage | 02.16.06 - 6:34 pm | #

Interesting point, Paddy. That's the first negative thing I've heard about Carufel. It definitely helps to keep things in perspective.
JohnWA | Email | Homepage | 02.16.06 - 7:59 pm | #

Carufel did well at the AA game, though, against better competition. And the other OL we have from MN has been pretty good for us. I trust Charlie et al. on this one.
KL | Email | Homepage | 02.16.06 - 8:21 pm | #

I'd venture that Minnesota had about as many Div. 1 football recruits as the state of Florida has Div. 1 hockey recruits...I think weather has a lot to do with it. I wonder how many recruits came out of Montana or North Dakota as well. Anyone know?
c-stone | Email | Homepage | 02.16.06 - 10:48 pm | #

omahadomer: I thought that was an interesting takeaway lesson, too. The best third down is third and zero, and it's a big deal versus third and one. A primary reason I dislike Weis is because I think he understands this better than Carr.
Brian @ mgoblog | Email | Homepage | 02.16.06 - 11:31 pm | #

c-stone: I will stick up for my state by saying that last year USC had two Minnesotans on the roster (Dominique Byrd being a starter from). They signed Eden Prarie stud DL Walter Ashley this year (he didn't qualify last year).

That said, we have ~ 5 million people, so the numbers won't always be great. The Prep Bowl (state football championships) will never match the interest in the state hockey tournament.

That said three years ago we got Harris, Carlson and Laws - all servicable players, if not consensus all-American talent.

Sean
Sean | Email | Homepage | 02.17.06 - 12:27 am | #

I understand what you are saying paddy, but the players who have the best year as a high school senior aren't always the ones that have the brightest future in college. Ben Mauk of Ohio is proof of that. This award went to the kid that people thought was the best high school player in the state that year, not the one that had the best offers or the best chance to make the NFL. The fact that Carufel also happened to have the best offers is a sign that everyone who watched him play agreed he has talent. Miami and Florida don't travel to Minnesota for lineman just for kicks.
Pat | Email | Homepage | 02.17.06 - 12:52 am | #