My only comment on the "took his foot off the gas" thing was the play-calling. There were a couple times when Navy was clearly stacking the line to stop a run, yet we kept running. Why not call play-action there? It seemed to me that Weis wanted to try to run the clock out, but did it with backups. If we are going to put in backups, use the normal playbook. How many non-penalty first downs did we get with the 2nd string? I remember 1.

I completely agree on the 3 major issues though. If any of those doesn't happen, I think the game is easily over without a doubt ever popping into our heads.
cjdomer04 | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 2:11 pm | #

You have got to more into detail about "Parris was getting set to haul in the ball, but got leveled by one Navy player". A flag was called on this play as the Navy player ran ahead of the ball and blasted Parris which is a penalty. Why did the refs pick up the flag when it was clear a penalty had occurred?
The Butobi Brothers | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 2:29 pm | #

I'm still working thru all the BGS analysis of the game, but did the 3-yard QB sneak on 4th down come up? it wasn't in the last 9 mins but certainly another head-scratcher (read: bad) of a call by Weis.
everloyal | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 2:30 pm | #

The Butobi Brothers - I'm pretty sure the ball had traveled 10 yards before Parris was hit, hence no penalty. It was close, but the ball appeared to have gone the needed distance. I will edit the post to mention this though.

everloyal - The QB sneak was indeed a bad idea. It was also an audible by Clausen rather than a called play.
Pat | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 2:37 pm | #

Nice analysis Pat. And thanks for resurrecting Toegate. Though I stand by my belief that the Navy catch at the 1-yard line was the correct call.

To me, it's a simple toe-drag, except in reverse. Barnes just happens to be facing toward the field, as opposed to the sidelines, which is the way we have come to expect a toe-drag to occur.
kmf | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 2:41 pm | #

Aagh! Not toegate again!

The issue is not whether the ref on the field made the correct call. The issue is whether the replay provided indisputable evidence that the ref on the field was wrong.

It didn't, because as Pat notes the rule can be read two ways. Call stands.
Joe Magarac | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 2:48 pm | #

I believe, again, that kmf is correct. Just for kicks, I asked several of the high school coaches here on staff at the high school where I work, and they all say it's a catch." He got his toe in bounds. Just like kmf says, toe drag in reverse is still a legit toe drag.

It doesn't matter what part of the body hits next out of bounds (elbow, knee, head, heel, whatever) because the toe was in with the ball in possession.

If the heel hit first on the chalk, then it's NOT a catch. Or, if the heel and toe hit simultaneously, half-in, half-out, no catch.

Go Irish! beat the heck out of Syracuse.
Brian ND '96 | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 2:49 pm | #

I think that's a defensible argument kmf. Really the rulebook leaves room open for interpretation.

I found another very similar example that was also ruled a catch from last year.
Pat | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 2:50 pm | #

Even with the starting OL in -- which is a GREAT point, and thanks for making it -- I still think we took our foot off the gas. Having backup skill players in there can make a huge difference even if you've got your starting linemen. The rookie RB doesn't have as much chemistry or practice with the OL. The QB doesn't have great timing with the WRs -- even though Sharpley is a "veteran," he doesn't have Jimmy's experience with these guys at this point. True, it seems like Sharpley was just there to facilitate a clock-chewing running game, which is fine, except that I think we needed our best backs -- or at least two of the three, or one of the three -- in there to ensure that extra TD happened. Preserving a banged-up, psychologically off Jimmy is understandable, but we have a glut of starting-caliber tailbacks we could've left in a bit longer before putting it on Jonas Gray's shoulders. ESPECIALLY when the weather turned.

"everloyal - The QB sneak was indeed a bad idea. It was also an audible by Clausen rather than a called play."

Yeah, if I remember right, the announcers speculated that Charlie had talked to Jimmy about defensive reads -- and that if he saw the defense giving him this specific look, he should QB sneak. However, the announcers then said, "We suspect Charlie is now telling Jimmy that he meant that in short-yardage situations, not on 3rd and a long 4." Who knows.
Heather | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 2:54 pm | #

I can see little Jimmy just thinking in his head "Coach said to run if I see this defense,so I MUST RUN!"

Brady used to do this all the time, however, it was always on 1st and 10 and he tripped over his own linemans legs. Never on 3rd and 4. Jeez.

We're just not there mentally or physically as a whole unit. The "it" Charlie always speaks about isn't there, just too much disconnect. I'd like to see what another month of practice for a bowl game will do and what another spring session will bring this team.
Wild Jay Bevearman, ND '46 | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 3:10 pm | #

I meant to write, and Jimmy trips over his own linemans leg
Wild Jay Bevearman, ND '46 | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 3:11 pm | #

I know we're never all going to agree on Toegate, but I just don't see this as a toe drag in reverse. If the reciever's toes had continued sliding out-of-bounds then yes, it would have been a toe drag in reverse. However, they were not dragging they were landing straight down. If the player had been facing the other direction, and his heel landed in bounds followed by his toe landing out of bounds, it would not be considered a "heel drag" it would be a step on the line. I'm probably not explaining my thought right, and it probably doesn't need to be said in the first place, but I just don't see it as a "toe drag" in reverse.

Anyway, great analysis of 4th quarter, Pat. Thanks for breaking it down so thoroughly for us. I'll have to take your word for it that Navy still had that time out. I remember the ref saying "we were simultaneously buzzed by the booth for a replay, so Navy will not be charged a time out" but I still thought they were out of time outs. Maybe I was influenced by the CBS coverage incorrectly listing TO's remaining.

I was dissappointed in CBS's coverage where we missed both the Personal Foul on Washington AND the first onside kick. Too often in the 4th quarter when the game is seemlingly out of reach, the announcers will just start talking about random stuff that no one cares about (read: Michigan) and then miss a critical point to analyze from the game. The NFL, and in particular the ESPN Monday Night Football crew, are notorious for this. It's like they just get bored watching the game and have to talk about something else to entertain themselves.
Erik '04 | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 3:39 pm | #

One interesting point, to me, is that the issue was not so much back-up personnel as it was ND's lack of personnel for 2-tight end sets. Pat noted that Jonas Gray's fumble resulted in part from a missed block by one of the TE positions. I look forward to a day when the roster is deep enough to withstand a few injuries over the course of the season.
Louie | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 3:46 pm | #

Also, I don't have a problem with the decision on 4th and 3. The only reason it became an issue was because of the one-in-a-million confluence of other negative (for ND) plays.
Louie | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 3:50 pm | #

Actually Louie, Charlie has frequently used backup offensive linemen in this goalline formation and I imagine many other programs do as well.

It's basically a four tight end formation with Schwapp and Kyle Rudolph as two of the "tight ends" on the edge and Bemenderfer and Dever as the two lining up on the line, effectively giving ND 7 offensive linemen.

Here's a picture. But instead of lining up in the backfield, Schwapp lined up on the left edge of the line so the formation was balanced.
Pat | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 3:55 pm | #

Pat,

Did you ever read anything that suggested why McNeil was not in for the last series? Someone speculated because of giving up the 40 yarder, but I would be surprised by that.
Michael | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 4:19 pm | #

I don't ever want to talk about this game ever again. Can we do that?
Brad | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 4:25 pm | #

Not sure Michael.
Pat | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 4:26 pm | #

Toegate issues aside, this is a great post, especially because it explains why Charlie was judicious in use of subs. Last year many fans complained that Weis should have used subs more often in 2006, so that those players would have been more experienced in 2007. Now he is actually doing that, and fans complain that he used subs when he shouldn't have.

Weis has his flaws. But it seems like an ND head coach can't ever win.
Joe Magarac | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 4:42 pm | #

Pat- Glad you filled out the Parris flag portion. At the time of the game and after watching the video, I still feel the flag was the correct call. My question is, is that call reviewable and if so, why wasn't it?
The Butobi Brothers | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 4:54 pm | #

I disagree that Weis' decision to go for it on 4th was such a bad thing. In fact, I would argue it was just the opposite.

Look at it this way, from before its called. CW KEPT HIS FOOT ON THE GAS (contrary to what people complained about) and went for the one play knockout punch.

Also, Weis gave 2nd stringers some serious experience.

ND has a good success rate on 4th down and Weis, who knows the stats better than any of us, recognizes that it wasn't that big of a gamble and a good/important play to get young players involved in.

The problem I have is that ND "FANS" went into meltdown mode. Seriously people. ND was 3-9 last season. Why do people keep expecting an 12-0 caliber team to walk out of the tunnel? Pre-season guesstimates have ND at 7-5 or 8-4 before the season started, and NONE of that has changed.

The line on the ND vs Navy game was 3.5 points. Heck, ND beat the spread, why do ND fans have to go into meltdown mode?

1. The game came out a W.
2. There was good playing time to younger players.

2008 is not a season worthy of causing a heart attack for ND fans. 2009 and 2010 is where the money is at. I wish ND fans would get their head out of their _ _ _ _ _ and stop tearing the team, the coaches and everything about the season apart. 2009 ND will be stocked with a respectable 4th and 5th year class for the first time in eons. Let just see what these guys can do and keep cheering ND.

OK, rant over.

(Sorry I just HAD to get that off my chest.)
atepesm | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 5:00 pm | #

Pat, you do such a great job of going back and putting everything into perspective.

I think it is time to let this game be history. It may not have been pretty, but we won. There has been enough finger pointing...mostly by people who are self-proclaimed experts.

That is why this analysis was so good.

GO IRISH...SMASH SYRACUSE!
tednict | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 5:01 pm | #

Well I think you've definitively established that the whole meltdown was directly attributable to playing Kevin Smith. Sorry Bud, you're the bad luck. Before we put you in, things were going fine.

;)
KB | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 5:08 pm | #

Curious if anyone looked at that late Navy "first down" that looked short and at least should have been measured...

CW has little clue on 4th down... I would hardly call ND successful on 4th down.. should have punted, no question then or in retrospect..
jmc | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 5:27 pm | #

Finishing the thought on 4th down, what about the 4th down late in the Pitt game at mid field-- dummy stuff
jmc | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 5:30 pm | #

The only thing I care about Navy now is (going forward) to compare whether the o-line is going to get more physical, or if Navy will be the one game a year we get to see a running game due to undersized defenders.

I hope the run game can be a threat-even against good defenses.
www.southbendblarney.com | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 5:44 pm | #

Postmortems on Navy! Our official rock band, Dire Straits, should crank up a riff for us.

We'll destroy hapless Syracuse, humiliate ourselves on nat-tel versus USC, and worse : if we elect to go to a bowl, looks like we face a Florida team.

Until mid/late-October we could've beaten FSU or UM - now, both teams have developed way beyond us. Our best shot versus either - today - is a 31-10 ish loss.
Ugh.

Any way we can check on the 'experience' thing, that is, how it applies to other teams? Seems we can't acquire any experience regardless of what we try to do.
Blighting Irish | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 5:55 pm | #

Once again ND fans continue to shout openly their lack of intelligence about the sport they think the love.

1. ND is not playing for a NC this season.
2. ND was 3-9 last season and managed to be successful 54% of the time on 4th down.
3. Prior to that ND was 58% and 50% successful in the Weis tenure at ND on 4th down.
4. So ND is supposed to stop doing what it does well with its young team that is training for 2009?

Seriously you guys are pathetic fans. Go cheer for UM, as the conservative playing calling mentallity they've had for the last 40 years is a better fit for your personality.

Tell me again how you are better at calling plays than Charlie Weis? Tell me again how you know the statistics of the game better than Charlie Weis.

Yes, ND is only pulling a 32% success rate this season on 4th down, which is all the better reason to KEEP GOING FOR IT, so that in 2009, ND will be comfortable at NAILING the play when they need to.

ND was 3-9 last season. It just doesn't matter that much with this season obviously being a training season for an NC run (in 2009 or 2010). Get the experience NOW when the NC isn't on the line. Winning teams know how to win on 4th down, so you really think its smart for ND to throw it instead of learning to get it this season?

Please, go be scUM fans. You'll fit in better there. You people live to complain. Get a life or at least get a clue.

Its good that Weis is willing to take risks when they don't matter. Why you complain about it . . . well that isn't really of any value.
atepesm | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 6:17 pm | #

http://www.floridatoday.com/arti...343/1065/ SPORTS
kryptonite163 | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 6:22 pm | #

Interesting article from FLA Today. Meyer at ND someday? I wonder what that would look like.
Anonymous | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 6:31 pm | #

Good comments, you've changed my mind about a few things. I think I'll put some of my frustration in moth balls till next year. I still like to hear a thorough accounting of the OL and special teams coaching at years end.
valpodoc | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 6:53 pm | #

Great post. You should send it to Michael Mann. He could get a rewrite-into-screenplay done and it would soon be a so-so motion picture starring Jaimie Foxx, at least two Wayans, and Jeff Bridges.

Look, I don't want to pile on Weis, but not punting near midfield was probably the single f'ing dumbest coaching call I've ever seen. It was a no-brainer to punt that ball. I cannot get my head around it.
Joe Subway | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 7:40 pm | #

Thank you for the clarification and image, Pat. Sorry that I wasn't online to see the response right away. I still look forward to better depth at the TE position, which only last year seemed like something ND had.

As always, thanks for the great reading and myriad insights.
Louie | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 7:44 pm | #

Joe, did the backups need more practice with punting or with converting short yardage situations? Wasn't the argument at that point to get experience for backups?

To me, the only great crime was successive kick recoveries.
Louie | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 7:46 pm | #

Off topic, but.. I moved from sb to southern New Mexico for school, and haven't seen a live game in two years.. Today, I read that the Sun Bowl in El Paso wants ND (even if they "L-word" out the rest of the season)

Does anyone see ND accepting an invitation to a non-major bowl game?

I'm not trying to get my hopes up or anything.. And, I'd much rather watch them play in something bigger and better and more, well, major.. but.. everyone is invited to crash/tailgate at my house if this were to happen.
Drew | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 7:53 pm | #

I don't buy that article about Meyer to ND (someday) for a second. Maybe he'll use it to squeeze UF for more money when they negotiate an extension, but I don't see A. ND wanting him after last time, or B. him wanting to leave what he's building/built at UF.

Though it would be funny to see waht the people who call him "Urban Crier" and rail about his shady recruiting, etc. would have to say about it.
Nate | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 7:58 pm | #

ESPECIALLY when the weather turned.

One thing that should be noted is that that nasty weather made injuries a lot more likely. If Weis had left the first string in during that hurricane and someone had come up lame, would we have been happy with that decision?
John | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 8:28 pm | #

I hope to see Urban at ND in 2010. We will win once again. I'm still upset about the advice Boob Davie gave him.

ND needs to go to a minor bowl game this year. This is what they earned.
Maybe we can play Pitt again. I'm serious--like LSU a decade ago.

The BQ talk in the comments to a previous post reminds me of a moment in early December 2004. I overheard a wise & clairvoyant old lady at a Taco Bell south of Tucson tell a younger lady, "Notre Dame has a young & good looking quarterback who's going to be something special one day."
In the Name of Sonny Sixkiller | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 9:54 pm | #

Let this be a lesson to all reading this...never, and I mean never, leave the room to go take a crap with 2:30 left on the clock and the game seemingly in hand.
Much to my surprise when I stepped out of the bathroom to see Charlie soak n' wet and yelling at the refs with ND only up 6!
I had to take a double take at the clock and then ran down to my DVR and hit the rewind button.
So let me say that again...if you have to poop...hold it!
Brian | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 9:59 pm | #

If we had Urban at the controls, we would not fooling around with Navy and reading well-written recounts like this one.
Bob Crable rules | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 10:13 pm | #

Two thoughts:

1. I think Eric'04 has it right on toe-gate. Think of a curl pattern rather than a corner pattern. If the receiver catches the ball then first foot is heel-toe (not simultaneous, with heel in, toe out), that is never called a catch. I cannot fathom why it would matter to the rule that the toe then the heel falls or that the receiver is advancing forward rather than backward. (And for the record I do not read the same ambiguity in this rule, and I'm a lawyer and see ambiguity in just about everything.) That Shipley catch clip looks like a toe touch with an ankle turn, but the ankle never turned enough for any other part of the foot to touch down. Thus, not an analogous play. Seriously, folks, how many times have we seen a play called incomplete because the foot came down out of bounds. Did anyone ever really look to see whether another part of the foot touched in bounds first? Just typing it is ludicrous.

2. While I have absolutely no expectations that USC is a win, I have high expectations that this team is good enough to beat them. This is not based on blind fan-dom. Not entirely, anyway. Look at SC the last month or so. Their offense has been largely abysmal against average defenses. (Stanford is a below average defense, and it still took SC almost a full half before they could get offense really going.) Look at the ND defense over same time. Highly improved, and I think the Navy game success of the D says a lot. It is not unrealistic to suggest that the Nov. 29 contest will be very low scoring, perhaps even coming down to the last possession (which SC as a team is much more likely to win, granted, but you know that ball can take funny bounces, so you never know). With this line of thought, I am likely one of the few that believe that SC will not be a blow out loss. Man I hope I'm right.

And so as not to overlook SU, I'm banking on CW's perfect record on Senior Day to predict a bland win against SU (in order to avoid showing SC too much).
IndyEsq | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 10:20 pm | #

If the Irish go to anything but a minor bowl they will simply extend their bowl losing streak. They are not a good football team at this point in the season. Their progress, if any, is miniscule. I'd love to see them play Ball State for the Indiana state championship. As I watched Charlie and his son hug each other at the end of the Navy game, I got the feeling that he had just escaped with his ass and they both knew it. Frankly, I was hoping that Navy would have pulled off its miracle win to prove CW's pig-headedness. Fourth and three near the fifty and go for it. Get real!!! Charlie's coaching has been sliding downhill since the loss to Ohio State. And "atepesm" stick it in your ear if you don't like our complaining. When the Irish are good, they get plenty of applause. When they are bad, they deserve the kick in their butts.
baseballeddy | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 10:30 pm | #

atepism,

I tend to disagree with your assessment of going for it on 4th down. I can't remember the last time ND needed to pick up a long 4th and one or 4th and 2 and been successful. I agree there is nothing wrong with "practicing" it, but I think Charlie needs to see the value in pinning somebody on the 1 yard line and making them move the ball 90+ yards. I can't remember the last time ND punted and pinned someone deep. Yes, there are plenty of times we have been able to extend a drive, but when the offense has to play from the 1 or 2 yardline, the chance of a turnover or a 3 and out is relatively high. While I am sure CW knows the odds of picking up the first down, I bet he is also familiar with the chance of a team scoring when they have to move the ball 95 yards.

By the way, I don't feel like I have seen you posting much this year. Good to see you back.
Michael | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 10:35 pm | #

By the way, not to hijack the thread, check this out, especially if you ever played.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/p...20& sportCat=ncf

Ahh, the days of QB'ing the Pangborn Violence. Winless, but a helluva time. And now that place is just a bunch of chicks who Patty O'Hara and Bill Kirk gave our dorm away to, lying through their teeth that no more dorms would need converted (see Cavanaugh 2 years later) and no funds would be available for years to build new dorms (see 6 new dorms built within 10 years). But no, I'm not bitter. Bastards.

Good story nonetheless.
IndyEsq | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 10:48 pm | #

That was a big blunder on 4th down and it's a recurrent problem. The thought process is, if I punt it's akin to death (O-coordinator, not head coach). 54 percent is not a good percentage. Watch any good football team, and watch how many times they go for it in 'plus' territory. They kick a field goal or punt, period. If they punt, they end up getting the ball back in pretty much the same spot when it was 4th down. The players don't learn squat by playing that kind of pass happy gambling minded football. If anything it should be good lesson, in a down year, to the coach.
4thdown | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 11:35 pm | #

Wouldn't mind Meyer being ND. I miss the days when the coach would run out of the tunnel with the players. Plus, he's a young guy. Wish ND could have snagged him before.
gatortrade | Email | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 11:47 pm | #

One weather point on the decision to not punt. I was at the game and the rain was howling during that series, probably causing the QB fumble on first down. Wind was nasty also. I don't think CW wanted to take a chance on a bad snap, drop, etc. possibly giving Navy even better position than a missed 4th down (IMHO)
ndjoeg | Email | Homepage | 11.21.08 - 9:23 am | #

I thought the article about Meyer was interesting. We have demonized him quite a bit, but what if he actually deferred to his wife one time?
I would have assumed that he chose Fla over us and for the oft stated reasons that he would have more control, get the unqualified kids into school etc, but if by any chance he still wants to come, then by all means I would welcome him in the future.
I am a Charlie backer, but it is hard to deny the Meyer is a better coach at this stage.
canuck 75 | Email | Homepage | 11.21.08 - 9:33 am | #

"Joe, did the backups need more practice with punting or with converting short yardage situations?"

Hey, I think the first string, never mind the second string, needs more practice with converting short yardage situations. I'm still just surprised they didn't punt it for field position reasons.

Maybe the weather did make them fear a botched snap and six the other way.
Joe Subway | Email | Homepage | 11.21.08 - 9:35 am | #

Drew,

There is no possible way that ND declines a bowl game this year, even if it's the worst most pathetic bowl imagineable. Charlie knows the value of 3 more weeks of practice and one more game of experience for this young team. He was lobbying last year for the NCAA to allow them to practice even though they weren't bowl eligible.
Erik '04 | Email | Homepage | 11.21.08 - 9:50 am | #

http://www.universityofcaliforni...ws/article/ 4636

This is an old study, but it seems that going for it on 4th down is (empirically, at least) a better decision every time. I really don't have a problem with our going for it.

Now, the QB sneak earlier in the game was questionable, and learning that JC audibled it doesn't make me any happier.

All in all, though, thanks so much for this analysis. SOLID.
grengle | Email | Homepage | 11.21.08 - 9:53 am | #

From that Urban Meyer article:

"For Notre Dame's purposes, Meyer RUNS A CLEAN PROGRAM, wins, works like a maniac, is passionate about recruiting, and cares deeply about what kind of men he produces off the football field." (EMPHASIS ADDED).

Can someone please explain how Meyer "runs a clean program"? Was it someone else' school whose player was shooting an AK-47 off in a parking lot and then back on the team two weeks later?
Erik '04 | Email | Homepage | 11.21.08 - 10:14 am | #

"There was a note on Irish Eyes earlier in the week from a friend of the family that Charlie personally told Smith, a four year walk-on linebacker, that he was going to be added to the travel roster for the Navy game and play on special teams. With a brother at the Naval Academy, it was a very nice move by Charlie and his staff to not only bring Smith along, but get him in the game as well."

Gee, this doesn't seem to fit the current narrative at all that Weis is a big fat selfish egotistical jerk.

It was a nice move indeed.
The Song of Hiawatha Francisco | Email | Homepage | 11.21.08 - 10:53 am | #

great write-up, as always. thanks.
tjf | Email | Homepage | 11.21.08 - 10:55 am | #

grengle

I agree that for most teams going for it on 4th makes sense. However, this is not your average team. The OL still cannot move a Navy DL 1 yard at will, much less any other team. I liked when Lou would do it because his line would blow other lines out.
GB | Email | Homepage | 11.21.08 - 11:24 am | #

..."(Of course, the more worrisome aspect was that a Navy player was that wide open in a situation where a pass was expected.)"...

...you can thank our "crack" cornerback crew...
jim/redondo beach | Email | Homepage | 11.21.08 - 11:42 am | #

http://www.sportsquant.com/fourt.../ fourthdown.htm

4th and 1 @ the 45 or on the goal line, I'd be ok with. 4th and 2 or 3, and there's just not enough data to run an analysis. I'd say most teams that go for it at that distance on are losing teams.
4downCharlie | Email | Homepage | 11.21.08 - 8:46 pm | #