great analysis as always.
Dan | Email | Homepage | 08.31.06 - 2:47 pm | #

Wetting myself with glee.
IrishHoffy | Email | Homepage | 08.31.06 - 3:31 pm | #

Thank the Lord that we are home on September 16th...
Tony "The Ant" Spilotro | Email | Homepage | 08.31.06 - 3:46 pm | #

You're right. Penn State is too low. The OLine will be fine. The DB's will be fine. Anthony Morelli will prove to be better than #8. And Michigan State is too high. I think you guys are just paranoid of MSU because they beat you last year.
Mike | Email | Homepage | 08.31.06 - 3:48 pm | #

And what, MSU beat us 5 times in a row before the last time we were in East Lansing.
IrishHoffy | Email | Homepage | 08.31.06 - 3:54 pm | #

I think you have to consider putting Ga Tech at #2 in WR and ND at #3, just b/c the only thing I ever hear about GT is that they have good wide receivers and that's why ND is gonna "poop the bed" (in the words of known scumbag/moron Dan Shanoff, good riddance btw) on Saturday...

Of course, i would ask if you would ever pick an unranked team to beat the #3 team in the country b/c they have better WRs...but hey, don't let logic and reason get in the way of the Anti-ND agenda you have going there...
Bryan ND '02 | Email | Homepage | 08.31.06 - 4:03 pm | #

I like the ranking system you made up, but I was looking at the Army and AF rankings (just cause I am in the AF) and when I added up your points, you mixed the two up.

It's all good though. Either way, ND is gonna walk all over both of them on their way to the NC. ;) Just want to give my AF a little more respect.
chilli | Email | Homepage | 08.31.06 - 4:07 pm | #

Mike, it's probably not so much paranoia as that I'm personally just more familiar with the Spartan players having watched them over the past few years. I haven't watched as many PSU games so I'm more unfamiliar with their depth chart. And I'm sure that influenced into my rankings.

Also keep in mind that this ranking doesn't include one John L. Smith, who would be rated near the very bottom if I considered coaching as a category.

When all the factors are combined, I think the PSU game will be tied with Georgia Tech for the 3rd toughest game on the schedule behind Michigan and Southern Cal. Penn State is probably better than Tech, but we get you guys at home with most of your players making their first road start.
Pat | Email | Homepage | 08.31.06 - 4:08 pm | #

Michigan State is an extremely talented headcase of a team that could easily go 11-1 or 4-8 this year. The thing is, if they go 11-1, that loss is going to come against either EMU or Indiana. It's just the way Sparty is.
gozer the traveller | Email | Homepage | 08.31.06 - 4:16 pm | #

One other think Mike, we added your blog to the blogroll as our first PSU blog. Great name.
Pat | Email | Homepage | 08.31.06 - 4:21 pm | #

Pat - great analysis as always.

Something else to consider is not only the average of the positions rankings, but their standard deviation. Teams like Michigan and USC (0.99 and 1.25 STDEV) are solid across all positions. However, teams like Standford, PSU and Purdue (3.42, 3.20, 3.34 STDEV) all have weak points that could be exploited.

Since Weis loves to exploit other team's weaknesses, these may be games where we have a distinctive gameplan and therefore have a higher probability of winning (ala short passing game vs. BYU last year).

If anyone is interested the standard deviations are:
Michigan 0.99
USC 1.25
MSU 1.89
Ga. Tech 2.12
Stanford 3.42
PSU 3.20
Purdue 3.34
UCLA 2.07
UNC 1.75
Navy 3.02
Air Force 1.20
Army 1.19

Keep in mind that these numbers are not definitive and have little meaning without the corresponding average associated with them. For example, Army has a low standard deviation, but based on there average (10.6) it only shows that they are consistantly bad across the board.
Chris | Email | Homepage | 08.31.06 - 4:29 pm | #

Pat, appreciate the love with the link. I put a link to BGS as well.

MSU is definitely a headcase team, much like their coach. Who knows how they will do. Where you guys go wrong is in playing them early in the year. By the time PSU gets them at the end of the year they have suffered their mid-season collapse by then. But even we are always guessing which MSU team will show up.
Mike | Email | Homepage | 08.31.06 - 4:39 pm | #

To all the lazy media wonks that think GT has a great receiving corp:

There is NO way ND receivers should be ranked behing GT's. ND's top 2 receivers are WAY more established than GT's 1 receiver.

If Shark's fancy grabs had been in the ACC/SEC, he would be a front runner for the Heisman.

Essentially Calvin Johnson is overrated, considering the QB tossing to him is so 50/50. CJ just doesn't put up the numbers. He had 6 TD's last year. The Shark had 15 TDs.

Any questions?

Lastly, Pat, nice job putting this all together. Great work.

However, if ND's LB are suspect, shouldn't ND's secondary be suspect by the same argument (ie they have yet to show it on the field)?
atepesm | Email | Homepage | 08.31.06 - 5:09 pm | #

Always enjoy your articles and analysis. Thank you.

One comment, though, on this piece. If you throw ND into the mix, you need a new table of rankings as everyone will be adjusted accordingly. If you do that, I think Michigan will come out with the same average score as ND... and to be a homer, i think you can add in the position of "coaching" (maybe D & O)...to ensure ND comes out on top.

Keep it up! Go Irish!
1qa | Email | Homepage | 08.31.06 - 6:14 pm | #

It's interesting to compare your position rankings to the earlier fan survey on losses.

The fan poll (rankings in parenthesis) fears PSU more than MSU and UCLA more than Stanford:

1. Michigan (1)
2. USC (2)
3. MSU (4)
4. Ga. Tech (5)
5. Stanford (8)
6. PSU (3)
7. Purdue (7)
8. UCLA (6)
9. UNC (9)
10. Navy (10)
11. Army (12)
12. Air Force (11)
canuckirish | Email | Homepage | 08.31.06 - 6:24 pm | #

Atepesm, although our receivers should certainly rank ahead of GT's, Calvin Johnson and the Shark are virtual equals. How can Johnson be overrated if the QB throwing to him is not very good? Isn't it more likely that he would be considered overrated if Quinn or Brian Brohm was throwing to him? Watch him on Saturday, the guy's a freak.
Anon | Email | Homepage | 08.31.06 - 10:04 pm | #

Atepesm, I agree that ND's receiving corps should be ranked ahead of GT's, but what you said is ridiculous. Calvin Johnson is not overrated, and would be the clear #1 on ND's team. He reminds me of Charles Rogers. NFL scouts see through his low touchdown count.
CS | Email | Homepage | 09.01.06 - 12:28 am | #

Charles Rogers was good but very inconsistent. I was at the game in E. Lansing that ND won on Arnaz Battle's last moment TD, and the game would never have been close if Rogers was an all-around reciever. He made two circus catches, at least one for a TD, but dropped at least 4 passes over the middle on third downs that would have extended MSU drives. Also, he's about to get cut from the Detroit Lions after injuries and drug problems have made him the biggest bust of the century (behind Mike Williams, also about to get cut from the Lions). P.S. I wish the Lions didn't stink. Anyway, I don't know anything about Calvin Johnson. :o)

Go Irish!
Erik '04 | Email | Homepage | 09.01.06 - 1:04 am | #

To keep the natural order of things, Calvin Johnson will be drafted by the Lions next year and be out of football by 2009. The Lions curse lives! Pray that Millen has an anti-ND bias and leaves our receivers alone on draft day....
GRNDFan | Email | Homepage | 09.01.06 - 9:04 am | #

Erik-

You can't blame either Rogers or Williams for sucking in the NFL. They're Lions. Being drafted by the Lions is an instant death sentence, though being cut by them can sometimes re-vitalize a player's pro career as they go to another team. I honestly think Rogers will be a good receiver for some other team, and will do so this year.
gozer the traveller | Email | Homepage | 09.01.06 - 2:09 pm | #