The OBC almost helped the cause last night. Close, but no cigar.

The Gamecocks could still play spoiler to Florida, though. Spurrier loves The Swamp.
Ken | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 1:54 pm | #

Still think the best chance is to build consistency week by week and then shock the polls by drubbing U$C.

Folks are gonna be shy of putting ND ahead of 1 loss teams after the tOSU and Michigan games.

Taking U$C to the cleaners would be the ultimate statement that voters won't be embarrased by rating ND in the top 2.
canuck | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 1:57 pm | #

Disclaimer: This is a big if

If we win out and everyone is undefeated save tOSU, UM, and USC in November and UM beats a tOSU on the road and we beat USC on the road and are schedule holds up with Navy, GT, UM, MSU, Purdue, Air Force, and enn State all being bowl eligible than I don't see how we can't be top 2.

I realize this is a huge IF but I see it as the most realistic of the unrealistic options out there. I don't see many teams ahead of us getting more than one loss so we need the team that we lost to, to run the table and beat the #1 team.
Anonymous | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 2:03 pm | #

There have been some near misses already, and its likely that some of these teams will knock each other off. I don't think Auburn makes it through unscathed (play Ga. and Fla.), Georgia and Florida play each other so one must lose. The ACC is just plain terrible. Texas is clearly not a top 5 team. There are a lot of possibilities, but it does all hinge on the Big Integer I think, because of our loss to UM and OSU's pole position. If Iowa or, dare I say it, Sparty can come through with an upset or two (and Iowa will surely lose at least one game) we could be looking at a back-door to the NC. Well, except for USC, which would give us the legit big-time victory we need to jump to 2. Every top 10 team has shown some weakness this year, so I think its just possible. Who knows, maybe a rematch with an overrated WV team will happen? Wins are wins, championships are championships. I would take it. Hey, if it worked out, it could be a small recompense for the '93 screw job.
Thundershaker | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 2:39 pm | #

I honestly believe that if the team can start playing consitently well and win a solid victory at USC, we can have a very good shot at the title. By the time late November rolls around, people ten to forget about mid-September, and I expect the headlines will refer to the "much improved" Irish who have "overcome their slow start" against the "toughest portion of their schedule".
Jeff | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 2:57 pm | #

How's this sound?

Iowa beats tOSU to give them 1 loss
UM beats Iowa to give them 1 loss
tOSU beats UM to give them 1 loss
Oklahoma beats UT to give them 2 losses and they are out
The SEC beats up on each other as usual, leaving AU/LSU/UF/UGA with no clear cut dominant team between them and all with one or more losses
UL beats WVU to give them a loss to the only ranked team they'll play
UL gets beat by someone else in their schedule simply due to the loss of Brohm and Bush
GT wins the ACC to make ND's win look better
ND beats U$C to give them 1 loss

ND vs. tOSU for the NC game, each with one loss? Makes sense since they would be the two teams near the top that would have a late signature win over a highly ranked opponent and haven't faced each other on the field.

Of course even if all that happens, that still means ND has to beat the tar out of everyone else on their schedule AND whoop U$C in LA on 11/25.
JohnWA | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 3:07 pm | #

I know I've only been following ND since I arrived on campus as a freshman in 2000, so I haven't been around the block as long as most of the people on this site. The whole history of the late 80s and early 90s is competely lost on me. Therefore, I am really only concerned with winning A bowl game. Really any bowl game. Obviously I want that to be a BCS game and if possible the NC, but at this point after so many years of bowl futility I would be very happy with closing the season with a W.
Erik '04 | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 3:07 pm | #

Erik '04 brings up a great point. As much as we all want a return to the glory days of Holtz and 20+ gm wining streaks, I would be dam happy come January if we were to finish the season 12-1 and win our first bowl game since the '94 cotton bowl. And as much as we are all thinking that next year is a wash because of seniority and dept issues, it may also be one of those fun, unexpected great years like last year and '02 (until the BC game). 21-4 or 20-5 would not be a bad start for Weis' first two seasons.
Anonymous | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 3:12 pm | #

JohnWA,

The only issue with your projection is that the pollsters would likely put a one loss OU team ahead of us since they were pretty much robbed of a win, or at least that is the general perception of it. I would root for Texas to crush OU and take AP out of the heisman race or at least lower him on the list and then root for Neb over Texas. Its in Lincoln.
Anonymous | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 3:17 pm | #

True, Anon, but I think there's several reasons OU (the Oklahoma one that is) wouldn't get ahead of ND in the unlikely event that everything in the scenario played out. One is that I don't think they can run the table, even in the incredibly horrific Big 12. AP likely can't carry the team every week and Thompson is bound to make a mistake sooner or later. Two, pollsters are probably going to forget about the fact that OU actually beat OU (the Oregon one that is) because it happened in mid-September. Three, when Oregon gets smacked by U$C, Oklahoma will look even worse by comparison. Four, where's OU's signature win? Against UT in the Red River Shootout? In the Big 12 Championship game against a weak Nebraska or Iowa State? As someone mentioned above, if the Irish turn it on and convincingly beat the rest of their schedule, the struggles against GT (which would be ACC champions in my scenario) and the blowout against UM (which would be a one loss team to the #1 team in the nation in my scenario) would be considered early struggles against a tough early schedule. Finally, both OU and ND have had a recent history of getting killed in big games against "superior" competition (at least they are perceived that way in the media). Given that the pollsters have been burned recently by putting OU into the NC game when they clearly didn't deserve to be, ND has the advantage there. Also, let's face it. Love the Irish or hate them, very few people would pass up the chance to see tOSU and Weis match wits for a second straight year in AZ and this time with a National Championship on the line.
JohnWA | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 4:45 pm | #

A one loss Auburn, Michigan, or possibly Texas could be barriers.

The main chance pretty much comes down to beating U$C the way they didn't beat us last year: CONVINCINGLY.
canuck | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 4:54 pm | #

JohnWA,

Thanks for the response. I agree that it would be hard for OU to go nudefeated from this point on and that ND would stay ahead of them anyway in the polls. On a side note, is anyone else getting really pissed off at ignorant TV analysts griping about our defense. May was blabbering away about how ND's D has given up 84 points in the last two games. Hey Mark, no we haven't. The D has given up really only 54 (1 ep was blocked) in the past two games when you subtract the two pick 6s BQ threw, the int. returned to the 4 by UM resulting in a FG, the fumble by Grimes on the kickoff, and the fumble by BQ returned for 6. Now I am not trying to make excuses but our D is alot better than people are letting on. Do some dam research talking heads! If our offense doesn't puke the ball up and routinely go 3 and out than things could be much different. Figure this, takeaway the gimme points and points resulting from gimme field position and over the last two games ND has scored 61 and our opponents 54. With the points included, the score is ND 61, opponents 84. Based on that, I say the offense needs to pick it up. We have no illusions re: our D but don't put the blame on them.
Anonymous | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 5:09 pm | #

What you also need to take into consideration is that the hype for the USC game, if USC is unbeaten and we're 10-1, will be ginormous. Last year times two.

It could very well take Quinn from an also-ran to the top spot. From us as #5 to possibly #2.

It will be that big of a game. And by that time, the Michigan game will be what...9 weeks old? "This is a different team now after that Michigan loss" will be the phrase du jour, or "They really woke up after that Michigan blowout."

Yeah it's an outside chance, but there is no reason to give up.
Ken | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 5:34 pm | #

"I like your thinking, can I subscribe to your newsletter?"
Anonymous | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 5:38 pm | #

I'm not worried about UM. Even if tOSU and UM are both undefeated for the next BEST GAME EVAH!! one of them has to lose at the 'Shoe and there's little chance that the BCS will put two teams on the field that faced each other that recently. Of course, if UM wins that hurts ND due to the lopsided loss.

Auburn is a big problem as a one-loss, especially with the sympathy from a couple years back, but they almost blew one to the Other USC last night and almost lost to LSU. They've still got a brutal schedule, the Iron Bowl, AND a SEC Championship game to get through with only 1 loss though.

As for UT, who knows? The Big 12 is a complete toss-up. The 'Horns could run the table or trip up against OU, NU, A&M or even in the Big 12 Championship game.
Anonymous | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 6:06 pm | #

I think the Big 12 and SEC are extremely balanced at the top, so it is unlikely that ND's BCS competition will come from there. However, the Big East and Big Ten are a different story. We'll see how Iowa/MSU and Rutgers/Pitt do as spoilers, but both of those conferences are two horse races and on track to have undefeated, winner-take-all matchups in November.
Jeff | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 6:13 pm | #

I'll admit, there are times when I will amuse myself by going through all these "what if" machinations as well...at least until I come to my senses with a self-induced head-slap. Y'all are conveniently ignoring the elephant in the room: if ND plays USC anywhere close to the way they did against UM and MSU (first half, at least), they are down 45-3 by halftime. Game over. I certainly hope they'll be playing better by then, but they have a LOT of work to do beforehand.
c-stone | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 9:02 pm | #

Take it Easy Fellas. Let's just take it one game at a time, Although I like the chances of running up a lot of scoring this week. Look for Aldride to get a touchdown(Screen Pass).
NUG | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 9:47 pm | #

C-Stone,

Yeah your right about the elephant in the room and yeah USC wouldn't let ND back in like MSU but also keep in mind that these kids haven't had a second to catch their breath in these first four games. With a kinder 7 game stretch coupled with USC having their worst stretch at the end of the season (Oregon, Cal, ND, UCLA) gives us a pretty even matched game in LA come 11/25. We will be rested and hopefully injury free while USC will be in week 3 of their 4 game stretch.
Anonymous | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 9:59 pm | #

NC? I don't think it is a realistic hope. BCS Bowl game? Yes, definitely a reality. Beating USC? I'm not sure I'm convinced that we are on the same level as they are just yet. (of course, they are only one arrest away from being knocked down a rung.) As much as I would love a NC; I am rooting for a BCS bowl win. A consolation prize would be a win against USC and afterwards, Pete Carrol announces he is leaving the season early to go coach the Buffalo Bills or a World League team (one can dream, can't he?)

Go Irish!
rbingham'97 | Email | Homepage | 09.29.06 - 11:45 pm | #

You guys crack me up. Let's just beat Purdue.
MattCT | Email | Homepage | 09.30.06 - 6:57 am | #

Too much looking down the road. Right now I can't even think beyond today's game against the Purdue Boilermakers. ND has to win this one and win convincingly.
Southside Shrek | Email | Homepage | 09.30.06 - 8:54 am | #

Sheesh, it's hard for me to defend us ND fans against charges of delusions of grandeur when I see posts like this. Purdue or UCLA (and maybe even Navy or AF) could conceivably upset us if we don't get our act together. That said, I must confess I find myself occasionally daydreaming possible NC scenarios at work. Those obviously involve Michigan losing at least 2 games and us completely destroying an undefeated USC as convincingly as UM destroyed us. Probably isn't gonna happen, but it's fun to think about nonetheless. My other dream scenario-- having the gods conspire to grant us a rematch against the skunkbears in a BCS bowl (that's probably even more remote a possibility than playing for the NC). Sigh...
scott | Email | Homepage | 09.30.06 - 12:35 pm | #

Seriously, why do you guys worry about a national championship?

I think that's what's irritating to a lot of CFB fans. You guys have a loss at home by a large margin, a win that was miraculous and relied on a collapse by the opposing team, and a defense that looks porous even in the games you win.

Start talking about the national title when you legitimately enter the picture. For example, if you win out and defeat a quality USC team.

Until then, accept the fact that you're not among the top title contenders. You have to play your way in to title contention. It's not Notre Dame's birthright.
William Swann | Email | Homepage | 10.02.06 - 3:25 pm | #