Great analysis, Mike. Taking a look at the coach's ability to improve on a mediocre record vs. an abysmal record brought to light a few things. Good stuff.

Love how deep you guys will delve into topics like this--something that's rarely found on the big sites like ESPN, CNNSI, and CBS.
kmf | Email | Homepage | 02.26.07 - 3:27 pm | #

Dennis Dodd wrong. Man creates fire.
Andrew | Email | Homepage | 02.26.07 - 4:20 pm | #

Great writeup. Thanks.
atepesm | Email | Homepage | 02.26.07 - 4:32 pm | #

Good stuff, although aside from a few whiners that are so far up their butts in recruiting, I think you're preaching to the choir regarding what Charlie Weis has done for Notre Dame football. Obviously some thought we could get it done in year two and win a title, but Rome wasn't built in day, let alone two years. We are heading in the right direction. Heck, If Mack Brown can win a title 6 years into his job, I have no worries Weis can get ND there.
Jake | Email | Homepage | 02.26.07 - 5:28 pm | #

One quibble: Charlie Weis' offense is what ultimately killed us in the Sugar Bowl. ND stormed back on offense, then in the second half fell flat, despite our defense holding LSU to consecutive field goals. It was Weis' offense that went 3 and out and gave the ball right back to LSwho? IMO, Weis' offense was at its best when Rashon Powers Neal was playing. I think next year we'll have enough bruising backs to compliment the finesse run game and the pass game.
Rick Minter | Email | Homepage | 02.26.07 - 5:33 pm | #

"We'll" have enough bruising backs...?

Rick, I don't know how to break this to you...
Jay | Email | Homepage | 02.26.07 - 5:37 pm | #

In the meantime, one of the molder of men's players gets drunk and steals a cab. Or something like that . . .
24 hour | Email | Homepage | 02.26.07 - 5:43 pm | #

It is tough to put together metrics on how a coach has done in a 2 year period of time. I would rather compare the expecatations of the university/alumni when he was hired with what Weis has accomplished.

Here are 5 categories I think he should be graded on followed by reasons for each of my grades. Let me know if you think there are any additional categories and if you agree/disagree with the grades.

1) Wins - Met Expectations
2) Winning Big Games - Below Expectations
3) Recruiting - Met Expectations
4) Future of the Program - Met/Exceeded Expectations
5) Moral State of the Program - Exceeded Expectations

Obviously, there shoud be a 6th category of "Win a NC". I think it is too early to measure him based off those expectations. Therefore, this is wrapped up under "Future of the Program"

1) Wins - Met Expectations
Personally, I feel that Wies exceeded expecatations in this category. 19 wins in his first 2 years was more than I would have hoped for when we hired him. That being said, ND has pretty high expectations and I think 19 wins per season is what was expected.

2) Winning Big Games - Below Expectations
If ND wins the "Bush Push" game or one of his bowl games, I give him a met expectations. Being fare to Weis, he was outmatched talent-wise in both bowl games. But, he was also blow out by our 2 biggest rivals (ND and USC) and has yet to beat USC. Regardless, I will always be thankful to him for the UofM win when I was sitting next to my best friend and UofM grad at the game.

3) Recruiting - Met Expectations
He is close to exceeding my expectations, especially during the first 2 years. Overall, consistenty landing top-10 classes is expected at ND. If he had landed a top-3 class, I would have given him an exceeded expectations.

4) Future of the Program - Met/Exceeded Expectations
My personal opinion is that ND is moving in a great direction. Based off the amazing increase in the level of ticket requests, I would guess that the Alumni agree. I also think that most Alumni would be optimistic about the possibility of winning a NC in the next 10 years.

5) Moral State of the Program - Exceeded Expectations
The one thing Ty Willingham did well was manage the program from Sunday through Friday. Weis has followed in his footsteps. Kids have stayed out of trouble and have only been on the front page for good things. Weis' (or Wies's) personal efforts for disabled children is admirable to say the least. As far as I know, grades have been good as have graduation rates.
rbingham'97 | Email | Homepage | 02.26.07 - 5:48 pm | #

"was also blow out by our 2 biggest rivals (ND and USC)"

should read...

was also blow out by our 2 biggest rivals (UofM and USC)

If we were blown out by ND (The Fighting Souix?), I would be worried.
rbingham'97 | Email | Homepage | 02.26.07 - 5:52 pm | #

Nice work on the piece, Mike.

rbingham'97, you also bring up some thought-provoking points. My disagreement would be in the area of recruiting - I think CW is a little bit ahead of expectations. In 2 - 3 years, this year's class might be considered a tad less than satisfying. Good thinking, though!

Go Irish
Bill H | Email | Homepage | 02.26.07 - 6:22 pm | #

24 Hour beat me to it.

The "molder" of men strikes again:

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/ne...ov=ap& type=lgns
Irish_Angst | Email | Homepage | 02.26.07 - 6:26 pm | #

I think you guys are taking cheap shots. Under Ty there is tremendous mouldering taking place in Washington.

As for Rick's comment, I think it's great he's continuing to take an interest in the program and especially the offense. He may have missed his calling, considering how successful offenses have been the past two years with his play calling.
indy | Email | Homepage | 02.26.07 - 7:28 pm | #

And now UW is finding out the problem with hiring Ty. Most of the graduates and fans I know up here want him gone. They almost all acknowledge that the second they do that, however, the university will get roasted on the same spit ND did. It will be interesting to see how they handle it after this season and even more interesting to see how the media takes it this time around.
JohnWA | Email | Homepage | 02.26.07 - 7:39 pm | #

Mike - Great write-up. Please, please always keep BGS going for us.

rbingham'97 - I like your metrics as well and agree with you except for one thing. As for Moral State of the Program, it is nearly impossible to exceed expectations at ND. Expectations are that everyone graduates except in extenuating circumstances (transfer, early draft declaration), nobody gets in off-the-field trouble, and everyone conducts himself/herself with class. That's not to take anything away from Charlie and the program; simply meeting expectations in this category is reason for celebration.
TacomaDomer00 | Email | Homepage | 02.26.07 - 7:44 pm | #

Actually, as I hit the OK button, it occurred to me that something like Pass Right would qualify for going beyond expectations on the Moral State of the Program piece. Ditto for the actions such as honoring the service academies during their fight songs. Man I love ND.
TacomaDomer00 | Email | Homepage | 02.26.07 - 7:46 pm | #

Two additional criteria I guess I would have to apply to build upon Mike’s matrix:
a composite of recruiting rankings (an idea from rbingham'97) from the major recruiting services and heaven forbid, final national rankings after the BCS season.

If I had the time and the now how, a two year comparison of: Charlie, Lou, Dan, Ara, Frank and Knute would be interesting and fun.

On the JohnWA thread – man I don’t care if TW gets roasted, anything to get ND off that ever-turning spit. The racial card still comes up in articles and among talking heads from time-to-time.
53 days and counting.
Subway Alumni | Email | Homepage | 02.26.07 - 8:18 pm | #

Mike,

Great analysis. I think your is much more accurate than Dodd's. As far as I can tell, 4 of the best current coaches were hired in that year. Weis, Meyer, Miles and Spurrier. The only coaches I can think of in that league are Carroll, Tressel, Saban, Fulmer, B. Bowden, Carr. Mack, Stoops and maybe a couple more.
GB | Email | Homepage | 02.26.07 - 10:45 pm | #

Um, guys, can someone edit out the comment by Hillbilly LSU? That's got no place on a quality blog like this. Unacceptable.
Anonymous | Email | Homepage | 02.26.07 - 11:11 pm | #

I can't complain about CW's recruiting.

"In 2 - 3 years, this year's class might be considered a tad less than satisfying." - - - - This just doesn't compute.

Remember, the ideal class size at ND is 20 (ND doesn't have a 50% graduation rate or a high dropout rate, so ND really is limited to about 20 kids/class. Combined with the year before's 28 kids, that puts ND at 48 kids for 2 years, still +4/year over what ND needs).

ND's most recent recruiting class (like the year before it) was better than ANY class Ty brought into ND. Its been a long time since ND had 2 consensus top 10 recruiting classes back to back.

If CW does that for a 3rd year in a row (as NOW expected), ND will be stacked, like they used to be during the Vinny C/Lou Holtz years.

Seriously, complaining about ND's recruiting classes is like complaining about having too much money to spend.

There's enough talent in place in ND last 2 classes. The bigger question now is will that talent be developed and used appropriately.
atepesm | Email | Homepage | 02.27.07 - 1:50 am | #

My bad. I can't add for squat.

In my last comment it should say ND will have 46 commits over the last 2 years recruiting classes, which leads to +3/year.
atepesm | Email | Homepage | 02.27.07 - 1:51 am | #

Did anyone else notice that TW was ranked ahead of CW when they were hired two years ago? Is that just because CW was unknown at least in relation to NCAA football? I'd have to say those rankings are shot to pieces after the past two years...
Erik '04 | Email | Homepage | 02.27.07 - 9:16 am | #

Rbingham '97: I disagree with the big game ranking you gave CW. In '05, we beat Pitt and Michigan on the road and came within 1-yard and an opponent's cheating of beating USC at home. '06 saw us beating Georgia Tech and Penn State (both ranked at the time we played them), and a huge win at Michigan State (not just the comeback, but the fact that the game was so emotionally charged after the '05 flag-planting made that a huge game). Those should all be considered big games; maybe not as big as the BCS bowls or the big losses to traditional rivals in '06, but still very big games. And would you have expected us to win any of those, or even be competitive, before CW was hired?
If CW has not met expectations in big games, it's because most ND fans forgot what 1994 to 2004 were like, and set unreasonable expectations for the first 2 years of our new coach's tenure, especially considering the state of the program he inherited.
Oscar_Dillon98 | Email | Homepage | 02.27.07 - 10:09 am | #

Rather than rank these coaches by win differential, a more accurate metric might be (wins^2)/(predecessors wins). This accounts for the difficulties in improving on a program that was doing well to begin with (Miles and Meyer), while punishing coaches that mantained status quo of a very weak program (Zook and Willingham). The results of such a ranking matches what you would expect if you ranked them without an unbiased metric (it could be more accurate by using winning % instead of wins, but I'm not about to look that data up, and it won't make a major difference):

1 Skip Holtz ECU 3 12 48.0
2 Bill Cubit Western Michigan 6 15 37.5
3 Charlie Weis Notre Dame 11 19 32.8
4 Urban Meyer Florida 15 22 32.3
5 Bronco Mendenhall BYU 9 17 32.1
6 Dick Tomey San Jose State 5 12 28.8
7 Frank Solich Ohio 6 13 28.2
8 Les Miles LSU 22 22 22.0
9 Steve Spurrier South Carolina 11 15 20.5
10 Terry Hoeppner Indiana 5 9 16.2
11 Kyle Whittingham Utah 22 15 10.2
12 Dave Wannstedt Pitt 16 11 7.6
13 Mike Gundy Oklahoma State 16 11 7.6
14 Tyrone Willingham Washington 7 7 7.0
15 Walt Harris Stanford 8 6 4.5
16 Ron Zook Illinois 4 4 4.0
17 Shane Montgomery Miami (OH) 21 9 3.9
18 Ed Orgeron Mississippi 14 7 3.5
19 Brent Guy Utah State 6 4 2.7
20 Greg Robinson Syracuse 12 5 2.1
21 Hal Mumme New Mexico State 8 4 2.0
22 Mike Sanford UNLV 8 4 2.0
Steve R | Email | Homepage | 02.27.07 - 10:25 am | #

Not sure about this because und.com doesn't seem to have the all-time record info anymore, but Ara's first two years were something like 16-3-1 as against 7-13 or worse the previous two years. Then his third year was 9-0-1 and NC. But he did have a great sophomore class his first year (Page, Hardy, Eddy, Conjar, Lynch, etc.) that was recruited by others.
ND67Aquajock | Email | Homepage | 02.27.07 - 11:00 am | #

I think another thing that has to fit into evaluating the coaching class is the 'What Have You Done For Me Lately?' criterium. A big part, perhaps the largest part of the frustration with Willingham was his out and out refusal to do anything to right a sinking ship. Willingham could be the coach of Notre Dame today if he had fired his coordinators when it was demanded. Luckily, Willingham continued to not have bad days until he was fired.

Weis is the complete opposite. While there were rumblings about the defense, Weis was already addressing the situation. Nobody is happy with how the defense has played, but we can point and say measures are being taken to address it.
Pete | Email | Homepage | 02.27.07 - 3:13 pm | #

R-bing97,

"That being said, ND has pretty high expectations and I think 19 wins per season is what was expected."

19 wins a season is a leee-tle optimistic. :-) Maybe when ABC-BCS-BS expires, we can get a playoff and come close. Didn't BYU get 14 wins in 1 season?

I would add another criteria: Assistant coach selection.

Bobby Bowden hasn't done much without Mark Richt. We sank with Minter. Polian's troops did NOT improve or inspire - so he's next on the plank. CW did address the Minter problem after he created it. The ultimate would have been never to have hired that bodanker in the first place.
ThE LoSt BoY | Email | Homepage | 02.27.07 - 3:52 pm | #

Oscar_Dillon98,

I mostly agree with your comments. I think all of the wins you mention are very strong wins, but not 'big wins' by my definition. To clarify my definition of big games, I would describe it as follows...

1) A rival (definitely USC or UofM; maybe tOSU, FSU, Miami, or Penn State and personally - BC and Florida.)
2) A top 5 or top 10 team
3) A BCS bowl game (obviously, since a BCS bowl game would likely have a top 10 team in it.)

Any game that has more than one of those factors in it makes it a big-big game, such as USC the last two years.

So, by both of our definitions, UofM '05 was a big game. Penn State last year is 'on the bubble' for me, but I could see counting it as a Big Game. "Bush Push" was a big game, but regardless of how we lost, we lost. Pitt and GT I would not consider "Big Games" but definitely impressive wins.

Based on my definition, we are 1 or 2 wins and 5 losses in big games. This is why I gave him a "Below Expectations" grade.
rbingham'97 | Email | Homepage | 02.27.07 - 8:31 pm | #

Fair enough, and thanks for taking the time to clarify your definition. I guess I like to be as optimistic as possible when it comes to the future of ND football. I'd say it's the only thing that gives me hope in this cold, cruel cubicled world, but my wife and kids wouldn't appreciate the disrespect. Thanks for your thoughtful analysis - that goes for both rbingham and the BGS guys!
Oscar_Dillon'98 | Email | Homepage | 02.27.07 - 9:21 pm | #

ThE LoSt BoY,

I think you make a valid point. I guess, personally, I would have given him an "Exceeded Expectations" in this category, but thought that 19 wins in 2 seasons was more along the lines of a "Met Expectations" for the ND faithful. After reading your comments, I would feel comfortable bumping him up to a "Met / Exceeded Expectations Ranking".

Now that I have had time to step back and think about my grading 'system' a little more, I would bump his overall grade up to a "Met/Exceeded Expectations" as well.
rbingham'97 | Email | Homepage | 02.27.07 - 10:26 pm | #

This analysis is great, but doesn't factor in strength of schedule. That's for another day...
PangbornViolence | Email | Homepage | 03.01.07 - 12:46 am | #