Ow. Ow ow ow. It hurts the head. And the heart. Why, Ty?
AS | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 12:58 am | #

William Morrisey ate his way out of an Aggie uniform, he came in weighing 280 at 6'1 and left weighing closer to 4 bills.

Last we heard he was trying to get his weight under-control and get back into A&M or Houston.
HMFIC | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 1:51 am | #

HMFIC

Last we heard he was trying to get his weight under-control and get back into A&M or Houston.

You're talking about getting into the uniform. Right?
GB | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 3:21 am | #

Interesting analysis, BGS...but for those of us who are Red-Green colorblind it would be nice to have a color scheme like Blue, Yellow, Red, Black...just saying.
bgregor4 | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 7:23 am | #

Neat post.

An interesting addition would be to list by school the number of top 50 both annually and cumulatively. Also, to keep track of player development capabilities, you might want to keep a running tab of busts and those that panned out by school.
masked avenger | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 8:38 am | #

HMFIC - Thanks for the info.

bgregor4 - Here is the list of green numbers: 1,2,5,7,11,12,13,18,19,20,21,23,25,28,34,35,36,41, 44
Pat | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 9:36 am | #

nice to see louisville bury whatever morals they had to scoop up a thug like willie williams.
Schultz | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 9:38 am | #

Very nice work, Pat.

Willie Williams at #3 will probably also go the Prison route. Wise citizens of Lou-a-vull should strive to know his wherabouts 24/7.

I got a little chuckle reading about #33 Bobby Washington. Can you comprehend the non-standards they have at N.C. State when they take kids who aren't academically gifted enough to get into The U?!

Pat's comment at #22 that it is not the job of the recruiting sites to predict a kid's future criminal activity is, of course, correct. But if any of the leading recruiting sites wanted to distinguish themself from the others in a very meaningful area, this would be it! For example:

Linebacker/Player X has all the tools. Speed (4.6 secs), strength (375 lb bench), and size (6'4", 245 lbs). A true force to be reckoned with when not spending his weekends in Juvi Hall, Player X recently showed scouts his versatility when he upgraded his game from simple burglary to armed robbery and carjacking. Shows tremendous maturity by not doing any of the drugs he sells. Player X is also a budding family man, having fathered three children during his Junior year. His wit and sense of humor were exhibited to our scout when he rhetorically asked, "Why do you think they call it JUNIOR year, Man? I had three juniors in two months." Coaches attribute that productivity to an intense regimen during the Summer after his Sophomore year. Player X wants to play college ball somewhere that can prepare him for the NFL. His dream is to someday play for the Bengals because he likes Marvin Lewis a lot, and also has significant numbers of cousins and uncles already incarcerated in the Ohio Correctional system. "I don't plan on going to jail, but if I did at least I know I got lots of my peeps watching my back in Ohio."
Voice in the Wilderness | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 9:41 am | #

Interesting analysis... Thanks bgregor4 for sticking up for us color-blind folk ;) I had to read the end where it said 'bust or star' to tell. I can't believe blue gray sky would discriminate against disabled people like me (just kidding.)

It would be interesting to look at a larger sample to see what the results are. Though I found the analysis very interesting, but am curious if it is still true over a 10-year period of time. That being said, I am not interested in going through the cumbersome task of making a case-by-case analysis of 500 players over the last ten years.
rbingham'97 | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 10:04 am | #

Here was an interesting skunk-bear article on recruiting similar to this one. I found it mildly interesting...

http://motownsportsrevival.blogs...ng- lowdown.html

Here's another, even better article by another skunk-bear blog. This one is very similar to the analysis here on bluegraysky...

http://mgoblog.blogspot.com/2006...100-part- i.html
rbingham'97 | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 10:09 am | #

Pat: Thanks for listing those.

rbingham '97: Yeah, I did the same thing, looking at the end of each write up. But it's nice to be able to scan down the page and get a sense.

Color-blind proletariat unite and throw of the spectrum-visible bourgeois.
bgregor4 | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 10:13 am | #

Great post Pat. Just an update to your Xavier Carter section, Tyson Gay just ran the second fastest 200M in history yesterday in Indianapolis with a time of 19.60. American sprinting at its finest.
Self-proclaimed ND recruitnik | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 10:52 am | #

Awsome post Pat.
Adam | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 11:17 am | #

Ok, all "green" ranked players have been re-branded as "blue" for easier reading.
Pat | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 11:46 am | #

Wow, Pat going above and beyond the call of duty. Thanks, man. And by the way, kidding about colors aside, this is a great feature of BGS, really makes you think. Couldn't help but to notice in the analysis last year JaMarcus Russell was listed at #30 in his recruiting year. It looks like he was underrated by about 60 spots. Mythical.
bgregor4 | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 12:03 pm | #

Thank you Pat for the analysis. I thought it was interesting and well done. We know Ty did a lousy job recruiting, but this really shows that. While some may take issue with what you have developed, I would suggest they should do a better job...good luck. Isn't it interesting to note the recruiting job CW has done and is doing. In the future, one has to believe ND will be represented in such a review.
Ted | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 12:15 pm | #

Of the top 25, only 3 were red numbers. The remaining 12 were in the bottom half of the top 50. So I guess it gets a little more hazy after 25.

Also, Pat, the yellow is very light and difficult to see against the white background. Kidding, of course. I can't believe you caved in to the pressure from the colorblind.
Gabe | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 12:39 pm | #

Woe be unto him that caveth not unto thy colorblind lobby.
-Exodus 14:21
Voice in the Wilderness | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 12:45 pm | #

Interesting analysis Pat. Again, a bang-up job
Chris | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 12:59 pm | #

I'm going to email CW and tell him to stop putting the QB's in red jerseys b/c they can be confused with the Green jerseys. Instead they should be a nice floral pattern.
bgregor4 | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 1:06 pm | #

i thought that passage was in leviticus... my mistake i guess
guyritz | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 1:14 pm | #

Pat,

Would you be so kind as to list Davie & Willinham's names in red...
ND_Dad | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 1:26 pm | #

EKU Colonels not the Colonials... small point, I know.
Heath | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 1:27 pm | #

and, Pat,

Make them RED forever.
ND_Dad | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 1:29 pm | #

Is there any empirical evidence to back up the claim that Lemming overates ND recruits? I tend to agree, but just curious if anybody has ever taken a hard look at the issue...
jeremy | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 2:06 pm | #

Well, Jeremy. I mentioned that neither Scout nor Rivals had any ND recruits in their respective Top 100 lists for this particular year. Lemming had three (Lambert, Vernaglia, Walker).
Pat | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 2:25 pm | #

Math majors: How many millions of dollars did Ty receive from ND (before and after being fired) per top 50 recruit?
jim / redondo beach | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 2:25 pm | #

Fixed Heath. Thanks.
Pat | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 2:26 pm | #

Interesting story.....I habitually keep the Parade All American teams in both football and b-ball and look at them 4 years later. There are a lot of name you don't recognize.....but, like the NFL draft, identifying the top ten players is easily done for the most part......the good drafters are the ones who get the gems in the second and third rounds and later...or those who go after undrafted guys....Just so, picking up guys who are "on the fringe" of the draftniks is the real science.
captain jack | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 2:57 pm | #

I just couldn't get past Itawamba Junior College. I still can't.

This post is yet another example of why BGS is the best, and the rest of us are just posers.
OC Domer | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 3:09 pm | #

Speak for yourself OC
captain jack | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 3:49 pm | #

Great job Pat, I think the interesting analysis would be class rankings for schools. Does the number 1, 2, or 3 recruiting classes translate into top 5 finsihes for that classes junior and senior years? That might be interesting and I suspect you've already done it just because you guys are the best.
yago | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 3:49 pm | #

Voice in the Wilderness,

Dont be surprised about NC State taking Bobby Washington. They too Derrick Morris after Ohio State wouldnt take him for academic reasons. He didnt even get through the NCAA clearinhouse and took the SAT something like 4 times and got a 700 the last time. He never did graduate from NC St opting to leave early for the draft that never happened for him. So dont be surprised about NC State, also the running back that they had that left early, he was an academic casualty too.
Doug | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 7:38 pm | #

Very good analysis, but you lack a control group.

We can see from this list that just under a third of the blue chip high schoolers turn into true blue chip college players. However, is this better than, worse than, or the same as any random group of 50 high school recruits? What about compared to the consensus 50-100 or 100-50?
PAK'00 | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 7:48 pm | #

Doug-
I'm not all that surprised. It does, however, make ND's loss to NC State in the 2002 Gator Bowl that much more maddening. Ty Willie got exposed BAD on that day, and my hopes that he was our "answer" were thoroughly and completely extinguished.
Voice in the Wilderness | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 9:25 pm | #

Reading this article reminded me of the second BGS contest winner:

http://bluegraysky.blogspot.com/ ...746004848068332

I wonder what the correlation is between the top 100 highschool recruits and the college award winners. Another article for another day, perhaps.

Good stuff, as always.
DCDomer | Email | Homepage | 06.25.07 - 11:11 pm | #

Classic. That old John Cash line takes on an extra meaning when you think about where some of the kids finally 'matriculated:'

"When I hear that whistle blowin', I hang my head and cry..."
indy | Email | Homepage | 06.26.07 - 12:58 am | #

on a random note...I just got my Men's Health in the mail...and apparently Brady was their cover man...with the title "The Male Body" and it say

The Mens' Health Guy Brady Quinn: Quarterback of the Future
irishguy06 | Email | Homepage | 06.26.07 - 1:35 am | #

oh...and i forgot to mention...there is an article about him too
irishguy06 | Email | Homepage | 06.26.07 - 1:37 am | #

Willie Mo was still enrolled in school at A&M but was off the team.

When he played the guy showed flashes of brilliance out there. He was #2 DT in Texas that year behind Okam. And a lot of people thought he was better than Okam.
HMFIC | Email | Homepage | 06.26.07 - 3:28 am | #

Voice,

I agree with you 100%. From that game on it was downhill for ND under Willingham. Even worse was the fact that he was outcoached by Chuck "The Chest".
Doug | Email | Homepage | 06.26.07 - 7:19 am | #

Whoo boy, it's going to be a looong two years for Notre Dame fans and even that assumes the juniors will stop the bleeding in 2009 since there won't be many seniors hanging around. I gotta find a new team . . . maybe Vanderbilt.
Harris | Email | Homepage | 06.26.07 - 7:26 am | #

Does this mean that Omar Hunter is a guaranteed monster on the DL?

Please, please tell me it does.
Brad | Email | Homepage | 06.26.07 - 8:10 am | #

Excellent post. Particularly excellent format. It was easy to pick out what information you wanted w/o wading thru all the words on some guy you've never heard of. I first found this site because of the excellent analysis of the 4 disasterous plays in the '05 Fiesta Bowl and this is why I come back.

Since this isn't a peer reviewed journal, I hardly think a control group is necessary. Consider a random sample of the 85 or so players on the 114 or so 1A teams. Not so many blues. Plus, you can already see a cluster of reds at the lower end of the top 50.

I think it would be very interesting to see if certain coaches or programs have a greater hit rate--due either to superior scouting or fertile environment.

The UM boards went nuts when Cam Colvin "went to sleep a Wolverine and woke up a Duck." Looks like all that angst was for naught. I had forgotten Morelli was so high. He's got some ground to make up. That ND/PSU game will be very interesting for him.
imafreak | Email | Homepage | 06.26.07 - 11:27 am | #

We should show the number of Top 50 recruits for the past couple national champions to see any correlation.
Jon Mortison | Email | Homepage | 06.26.07 - 1:57 pm | #

a deeper statistical test would evaluate correlation of BCS finish and count or cumulative ranking of recruits on the team - perhaps weighted by SOS.
indy | Email | Homepage | 06.26.07 - 3:20 pm | #

I'm going to have to advise an edit to Demonte Bolden's color choice. He should be a yellow. He's slated to start at UT this season, going into his JR year. By coaches' reports, he had a good spring. A lot of knowledgeable people around the program expect a breakout year.

I think in all fairness, considering he's just now going into his JR year, he should be a "jury's out" label.
Doug @ CFB Authority/The Power | Email | Homepage | 06.26.07 - 11:50 pm | #

Fair enough Doug. Consider him yellow.
Pat | Email | Homepage | 06.27.07 - 1:37 pm | #

A geographical analysis would be interesting. I wonder if any states or regions of the country are consistently under-rated or over-rated by the recruiting services.
Flann | Email | Homepage | 06.28.07 - 4:51 pm | #