Great post. It takes a strong man to watch all of those sacks again, as it was painful enough the first time around.

If you have it easily accessible, how many of those 26 1st down sacks resulted a punt during that set up downs?
mark | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 2:14 pm | #

And just think of how many potential sacks were avoided because one of our OLinemen jumped offsides before the play even started. H*ll, we might have given up 158 sacks! :)
jezza | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 2:29 pm | #

Great analysis. Any person that would voluntarily watch all those sacks again, let alone analyze them, deserves a medal.

You allude to a point I would make, but I think it needs to be emphasized. Many of the sacks were due to the QBs holding on to the ball to long, and/or the receivers not getting open quickly enough. But those problems were often the direct result of lousy down-and-distance situations, which were in turn created by poor offensive line play on first down. A 1 or 2 yard run (or even a stopped-for-loss run) on first down creates a situation where receivers have to run longer routes, the QB has to wait longer, and sacks are more likely.

The point is, the poor run blocking by the O-line was also a significant factor in the sack totals. Just one more measure of how awful overall line play was last season.

Keep up the great work.
OC Domer | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 2:30 pm | #

Pat, great post, but I have to disagree with one point you make. When you provided examples of coverage sacks where receivers weren't getting open for Clausen, the first video (from Penn State, url below) clearly shows Clausen at fault. Just pause the video about ten seconds in, just as Clausen has time to settle into the pocket. Jimmy clearly has two receivers who have beaten their dbacks, with the play setting up particularly well for the tight end across the middle.

Personally, I think that Clausen was simply too tentative. On this play especially he needs to read the blitz on the edge, recognize the open field across the middle, and deliver a strike to the open tight end for an easy 12 yard gain. To be fair, the TE could have made a much sharper cut toward the inside, but my point is that Clausen is still playing very 'young,' which might be expected last year, but for the coming season this type of effort will not suffice.
connor | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 2:31 pm | #

Here's the breakdown Mark.

punt - 8
1st down - 7 (one via fake punt)
fumble - 4
failed 4th down conversion - 3
halftime - 2
interception - 1
field goal - 1
touchdown - 0

In other words, 18 of the 26 resulted in ND losing possession during that set of downs.
Pat | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 2:31 pm | #

Under the "Quarterbacks - 24" section, there is a typo in the 5th paragraph, 1st sentence. It should read "for reasons that can BE explained as..."

Fantastic post here Pat. Very impressive analysis. I hope you got good and drunk after having to watch all that.
Brad | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 2:40 pm | #

Under the silver lining section, you left out Clausen being hurt last year. It still doesn't explain why he was going out of bounds during the Stanford game, but in the spring game, Clausen threw the ball a lot better which will make teams think about blitzing as much.
The Butobi Brothers | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 2:48 pm | #

Can you get the Laetere (sp?) medal for your service to Notre Dame....? I can imagine that viewing/tabulating process was slightly less painful than being martyered.
everloyal | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 3:07 pm | #

As always, great job Pat.

Although it is hard to detect in some instances and may not reveal much, did you have a breakdown of defensive player by position in on sacks?

Just wondering.
REM | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 3:21 pm | #

With regard to Clausen running out of bounds, I recall that a couple of those occasions (especially in the Stanford game) were on busted screen plays. If you throw the ball away on a busted screen play, you'll get flagged for an ineligible receiver downfield (because the O-linemen are looking for blocks downfield). So, for at least some of those plays, there was a reason he ran out of bounds instead of throwing it away.
J.D. | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 3:21 pm | #

J.D. - Very good point. In fact, the screen pass was the reason for a number of sacks. As you note, Clausen ran out of bounds with the ball against Stanford on at least one and I believe against Michigan as well. In addition, a few of the other sacks came as the OL didn't set up the screen very well. In their haste to get out to block for the receiver, they didn't even slow down the lineman, who was on the QB before he had a chance to throw.

REM - I don't have that info.
Pat | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 3:28 pm | #

Good point on the screens. In the future, Clausen will read the play quicker and if the back isn't open immediately, he'll simply throw the ball at the back's feet and kill the play. If done fast enough, the linemen won't be downfield and there will be no penalty called.
PJC | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 4:58 pm | #

Pat,

Great analysis as always!

When I read the post, I was getting ellipses in place of the number of sacks listed below:

"the number of sacks that came against a blitzing defense versus a standard four (or three) man rush was rather surprising. 33, or 57%, of the 58 sacks last season happened when the opponent was blitzing while 25, or 43%, occurred when the defense did not"

I couldn't see the numbers until I copied and pasted it into here.
JM | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 5:11 pm | #

That is odd JM. Try it now.
Pat | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 5:25 pm | #

Pat; Great effort and insights.
jim masterson | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 5:57 pm | #

Yeah, you're a bigger man than me for going through that agony. Thanks for a great post!
One other possible break-down I'd be interested in is whether or not there was notable improvement as the season progressed. I actually figured that would be the first chart you had was sacks by game. I'd especially like to see those by-game numbers adjusted to better judge how the O-Line did as the season progressed, (so minus all the other positions' gaffes and the Clausen-scrambling-out-of-bounds, "are-you-kidding-me-he-did-that-again" -plays).
baIrish | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 6:38 pm | #

Color me crazy, but I am actually not that (note, that) worried about the o-line this year. I know, I know - they were catastrophically bad this past year. But the things that give me hope are as follows:

Sam Young - Played hurt and in the wrong position. He moves back to where he is comfortable and is bigger, stronger, and fully healed.

Paul Duncan - Keeps me up at night. But at least he has another year of experience. I played against him in basketball a few times at ROLFs and this is one big athletic man. I know that doesn't translate to success, but I feel like with another year, he can only get better. He may be the weak point.

Eric Olsen - He was moving all over the field last year - tight end, tackle, guard. I really think now that he is settled in, good things will come.

Mike Turkovich - Should benefit from more time focused on fundamentals and from another year in strength and condition. Like most of the other lineman, is bigger and stronger.

Chris Stewart - another mover and shaker. Went from oline to dline to Texas and back again. Now that he is settled in, I expect great improvement from him. He has the potential to be a devastating run blocker.

Dan Wenger - Again, switched positions (see a trend). Played guard and center, and had much greater success at center. I expect him to be improved.

Basically, I think the whole line was made worse by being moved all over the field, QBs holding onto the ball too long, the subpar receiver play, injuries, a lack of focus on fundamentals by the coaching staff (who's fault? who knows...), play-calling, and maybe most importantly experience. Receiver play should (hopefully) be better, injuries have healed (knock on wood), play-calling has been turned over and should improve, the coaching staff has supposedly recommitted to fundamentals, and each member has garnered valuable experience.

I am (hesitantly) hopeful.
Chris | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 6:44 pm | #

Then again, it'd be a bit skewed due to the disparity of competition between the first part of the season and the last few games. Maybe I'm just too desperate to find improvement/reason for hope -- helloooo wishful thinking...

Me: "No really, see, they got better!"
Logical Person: "C'mon, man, it's Duke!"
baIrish | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 6:44 pm | #

Also, Pat - great, great post.
Chris | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 6:47 pm | #

Pat, you are amazing! Infriggincredible job. Again!
The number and percentage of sacks on first down really blew my mind. I simply cannot fathom how defenses, on first down, with virtually no blitz packages or DL stunts or twists called, were able to sniff out the pass and then extinguish it in the rudest manner. That stat boggles the mind. I cannot reconcile it without saying horrible things about the O line's pride.
Voice in the Wilderness | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 7:28 pm | #

Great job Pat

i have to say that was painful to read and my wins have gone down for sure...i guess ill go with 9 w's now.
bk | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 8:04 pm | #

How in the flying f**** does Latina still have a job? Someone please try to rationally answer this - I need a good laugh
JangKimND | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 8:16 pm | #

This is a fabulous post. I will say it until I am blue in the face. With a limit of 85 players on scholarship,the days of any one team stockpiling talent are over perhaps with a few exceptions e.g., USC?. Throw in a few "down" years of recruiting and the NC becomes a pipedream. In 1966, Michigan State game, ND lost its All-American center (george Goedekke), its starting QB (Hanratty) and its All American running back (Nick Eddy), all within the first three plays of the game, and still tied the game. How many teams can do that today? The 1947 had 42 players who went on to play professional football!! Whatever your feelings about Ty Willingham, the reality is that unlike Faust, Ty left the cupboard pretty bare in some areas.
lush | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 8:18 pm | #

Pat, great job as usual.

I hope the the silver lining in the sacks debacle was that GT was #1 in country in sacks last year. I hope next year's assessment of the 2008 season and sacks is from the defensive side of the ball and marked improvement attributed to the ex-GT Defensive Coordinator.
Kelly | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 8:42 pm | #

Voice.
Great to have you back on the Xs and Os.
Take a 15 year old kid and have him write a tendency program. D-coordinators are just as smart as Charlie and when they have players, scheme don't work. Throw in a hurt, freshman Qb, kid receivers, a kid offensive line that never hit, no running attack because the scheme doesn't have one, a still-hurt soph runner, two frosh at RB, a D that's on the field all day with a bad scheme for the personnel (we managed to play a 3-4 without a linbacker coach--that's why Tenuta is here--not bright), nobody that can play O-tackle and no TE that can block and you wonder why there are so many sacks on first down? Common guy, think it through. You know the game.

Jang
Latina is an assistant Coach. The operative word is ASSISTANT. He does what the HEAD coach tells him to do. This guy, throughout his career, has been a hell of a line coach. He didn't get stupid last year

We will be a hell of a lot better this year...I think...if Charlie finds his brain...which he will
Domerplayer | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 10:11 pm | #

FYI...

The South Bend Tribune's Irish Sports Report 2008 Football Annual asked 20 questions of each incoming recruit.

Here was Lane Clelland's answer to "What was the most interesting thing you heard from a recruiter".

"When I called all the coaches and said I was going to ND and was getting 'Why are you going there' the whole time. When I got to Florida State, instead of bashing me, he said, 'To be honest, if there's anyone better than me, it's John Latina. He'll take care of you.'"
Pat | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 10:32 pm | #

Frankly, I think the lack of a credible running attack was responsible for at least 1/3 of the sacks. Until we run consistently...sacks will continue.
yago | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 10:45 pm | #

Until THE WHOLE TEAM walks like they've got cannonballs for nuts, the sacks will continue. Last year, almost the whole team was tucking like Buffalo Bill in Silence of the Lambs.

It would have helped if T. Laws left his jockstrap behind, so our recruiters can walk the land until they find players who can fill it, Cinderella style.

I think it's happening...
flannercock | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 11:05 pm | #

I believe in college football if the ball doesnt cross the line of scrimmage there is no ineligible downfield. Clausen will just need to throw the ball over the backs head out of bounds. I truly expect marked improvement in all phases of the game this year. One other problem is if the qb throws a pass and is outside the tackle box then you have an illegal forward pass which results in a loss of down but that is still no different than running out of bounds in negative territory.
Doug | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 11:25 pm | #

Thanks for a great analysis. Now, if we are going to improve in 2008, what can we hang our hat on? One thing is that the line will be more experienced. Perhaps just as important is that there will be a lot more experience and continuity between the QB and receivers. One of the keys to a good passing game is for the QB to throw the ball before the receiver is actually open -- that happens only when the familiarity is there. We need to at least cut our sacks in half this year, and better QB-receiver coordination has to be part of the equation.
rays15 | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 11:26 pm | #

Pat, do you have a link to the Tribunes article on those freshman questons? I'd do the leg work but I'm constantly checking BGS on the phone.
mark | Email | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 11:41 pm | #

not sure if you mentioned it, but in watching some of the sacks i was reminded that clausen seemed to take too deep a drop many times last year. i think this makes it tougher for a tackle to handle a speed rusher. if clausen steps up, the tackle can ride him to noman's land. would love to see it happen come september.

beautiful albeit painful post, btw.
fake kanu | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 12:22 am | #

I've read several places that ND's OL will be bigger in 2008 (all over 300lbs).

I can't help but wonder if that will hurt their ability to move quickly and protect against the sack. . . . .

Although I can't believe Weis would be aiming for a big/slow OL. . . . .
atepesm | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 12:46 am | #

flannercock

I laughed when I read your post. It's true.

Pat

What did you do? Buy a case of Red Bull? You've had a record week in posts and must have propped your eyelids open to watch all the game footage. Maybe I take that back. It may have been easy to keep your eyes open since you were watching a horror movie.
GB | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 3:52 am | #

Great post. Lots of imformation.
Pete | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 5:18 am | #

Domerplayer,
Great response to my post regarding first down ineptitude. You cogently describe a "perfect storm" scenario, and one, hopefully, that cannot ever again happen at ND.
Your analysis also works for downs two, three, and four!
Part of my disbelief centers around the fact that first down has always been, historically speaking, a "running" down, thus, not only was Charlie unable to surprise the defense when we threw on first, the defense was able to shut it down before Clausen could throw it away, tuck it and run it for positive yardage, or locate a quick outlet even for just minimal gain. I laid it squarely at the O line's feet, but your perfect storm description is more accurate. Last season was a humongous sh*t sandwich and everyone associated with the team helped to make it, and, it's only fair that everyone associated with the team be made to help eat it.
Voice in the Wilderness | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 7:12 am | #

Mark - I don't think it's online. I had seen someone copy that quote on another board.

GB - I've been working on this one slowly for a few weeks now. Trust me, I was in no hurry to watch all of these sacks.
Pat | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 7:45 am | #

We are a better nation because you have the time, talent, ingenuity, and energy to do this. Thank you.

Now, to show how selfish I can be after finishing the ice cream, I wonder if you will be doing the same for what I think will be this year's problem area, the D's front 7 (especially against the run)? Do we have the personnel Tenuta would like to have to run his schemes? If he tries to shift us to a blitzing D, will that expose us against the run?
foxrocks | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 8:53 am | #

That Navy flying sack still makes me sick to my stomach.
WyoMike | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 9:03 am | #

Pat,

Great post, though gut-wrenching.

I had one comment: you mention that the playcalling did not take advantage of what the defense was doing, but I don't think you followed up that critique adequately. In my opinion, after reading this article, the playcalling was incredibly hamstrung by player performance. I really don't want to throw anyone under the bus, so this really applies to the whole team. But if 43% of the sacks allowed come when the defense rushes 4 or fewer players, then a playcaller's hands are really tied. That speaks to a basic inability to handle predictable, vanilla defenses. At that point, it's the Sugar Bowl from Holtz's era, when Holtz just dropped 8 back into coverage every play. If a defense can send 3 in and have a high likelihood of pressuring a QB or getting a sack, then the most well-designed routes are going to be largely ineffective.

It really goes to show, I think, how important the point of attack, the offensive line, is.
Taylor Palfrey | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 9:14 am | #

If one of the main reasons for getting Coach Weis to come to ND was his brilliance at offensive play calling then why is he not going to be calling the plays any longer? I don't get it. I'm not complaining about his coaching stint thus far. He took ND to BCS games in 'O5 and '06 (only Ohio State and USC did that along with the Irish) and he has improved the recruiting by leaps and bounds. The guys are also tearing it up in the classroom. However, I thought his offensive coaching acumen was going to be the edge ND had over other squads. I certainly don't doubt the abilities of the other coaches on offense, but what happened to the supreme confidence of the NFL's top offensive coordinator? Did the 3-9 season mess with his mind or something?
Fighting Binny | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 9:43 am | #

Yago,

I am with you as long as we don't run this year, we will get sacked. I hope I get to see a more of a run attack offense this year. Go Irish
Jean | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 9:53 am | #

I don't know if this was the case or not this year, but a lot of times when a QB runs out of bounds they are trying to get to the line of scrimmage and just miss out. That counts as a sack even though it's a one or two yard loss. Still bad, but that's in a different category than the regular 8-12 yard sacks
Matt | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 10:06 am | #

I should've taken your warning to heart and not clicked on those video links. ND has a long way to go, fortunately the schedule is a little more forgiving this year.
Chris | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 11:13 am | #

why not call the post "Sack Attack"...from Saved by the Bell.
Anonymous | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 11:15 am | #

With the stable of backs and the size of the line, if this ND season doesn't feature the run, someone better send the coaches for brain scans.
david | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 11:45 am | #

Fighting Binny,

To be honest, I'm not sure how much I buy this whole Weis not calling the plays thing. If you look at Bill Parcells, he did a very similar thing. He would 'relinquish' his play-calling duties, but he was always very much in control of the offense.

Weis is still going to be running our offense. He will still call plays occasionally. I think its more an organization issue. By handing over the reins to an OC, he can allow that OC and the offensive staff to prep during the week. This opens up Weis's time to worry about other things, like team chemistry, motivation, etc.

If Weis sees something from the Defense, he is gonna be right on the horn telling his OC what play to call. Nothing will change that. And Weis will still be highly involved with Offensive strategy (which I think is much more important than individual play calling).

Its not like Weis is going to just leave the Offensive coaches to run the offense. This will still be HIS offense, make no mistake about it.
Brad | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 11:46 am | #

Yago, Jean,

A lot of people liked to slag Darius, but my man never lost yardage. If he ran or took a screen on first down, the worst we'd usually be looking at was 2nd and 7. This, of course, is a world of difference from 2nd and 11 or 2nd and 17.

I'm hopeful we get some of this three-yards-no-matter-what from the Hughes/Aldridge combo. I understand Hughes looks great, and I'm as high on him as anyone. But I'm not ready to say Aldridge's chance to be the main horse has passed. I think he still might prove to be the guy.

But, yes. A running game. Let's get one.
Hal | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 11:56 am | #

Thank you Voice and thank you Pat for standing up for Latina. The guy has been getting the dirty end of the stick for too long.
Domerplayer | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 12:04 pm | #

Agreed, Domerplayer. Even I have been guilty of being a little harsh on Latina at times. I think the main reason that has occurred is because, overall, the past three years we have seen probably the worst 3 collective years of Offensive line play at ND in its history. I remember in the early 90s when to be a member of the ND offensive line MEANT something. It meant you shoved people all over the damn field!

I think having to watch the way the line has played, many of us simply jumped to the conclusion that Latina was coaching them properly. In retrospect, (though I guess I was aware of it at the time) he really hasn't had a whole lot to work with. We have had few bodies, and even fewer healthy ones. Further more (not to dump on Willingham) but ND used to bring in some of the more talented Olinemen in the nation. Under Willingham's watch, we not only saw the quality of OL guys coming in drop, but we saw the quantity drop as well (including an abysmal recruiting season where we did not secure a single OLineman).

That said, the time for any excuses is over. This OL has size, strength, tenacity, and a whole lot of talent. We also finally have depth. If these kids don't come out and impress THIS year, then I truly will have to go to the anti-Latina side. But until I see the kids play this year, I will reserve my judgment.
Brad | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 1:03 pm | #

Hal,

I also don't remember Darius Walker ever missing his pass blocking assignment. Even if he got blown up (very, very rarely), at least he got in the defender's way.
The Song of Hiawatha Francisco | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 3:31 pm | #

I don't think the effect of not tackling in August last year can be overemphasized. No matter how many times Latina told his players what GT's scheme would be like, they never could have been prepared for that first hit without hitting at all since the Blue and Gold game.

I still remember that "All OL" sack vividly. I was standing on the corner of the endzone behind Clausen, and after the ball was snapped, it looked like our offenseive line just melted as the ENTIRE Michigan D-line came unabated to the QB. It was almost as if UM's D-line had lined up BEHIND our O-line. Worst protection in the history of the forward pass!
Matt '09 | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 3:41 pm | #

"Worst protection in the history of the forward pass"


Honestly, thats quite possibly true.
Brad | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 3:52 pm | #

Matt
If I remember correctly, the OL cut blocked to a man. Unfortunately, the QB took a five step drop (or maybe seven--I closed my eyes at five). When you cut, it's three steps and throw. I think the QB was at fault there...that is not to say that there need be a modest improvement in the o-line this year
Domerplayer | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 4:07 pm | #

Hiawatha,

My brothers and I talk about Darius all the time. He was exactly what Charlie's offense requires. He sets up certain plays for the RB, but the execution has got to be dead on. I specifically remember two third down plays with Munir Prince when a screen and a short pass were set up perfectly, but he dropped one pass, and juggled another. These resulted in stalled drives.

Darius never seemed to drop 'em. He was always where he was supposed to be, and if the play was set up right on 3rd and 7, he'd weave his way to a first down.

I'm not picking on Munir Prince. I just mean I think Darius had a combo of skills that were hard to come by. He was missing that extra gear, true. But there something glorious aabout a back who just keeps coming at you in 4 - 7 yard chunks.
Hal | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 4:31 pm | #

Personally, I would like to see another stat about how many times Olinemen were turned around, FACING the quarterback, watching him get pummeled. It seemed so many times they would either cut block and be laying face down in the turf, or they would be spun around 180 degrees, looking at the name on the back of the defenders jerseys as they crushed the QB.

In hoping our Oline can turn things around, I burned "The Shirt" from last year and I keep the ashes in a bowl on a shelf, next to an open can of Guinness, under a picture of Aaron Taylor with Metallica's "For Whom the Bell Tolls" playing on a continuous loop. My wife isn't too happy about the shrine, but if it makes our line give up fewer sacks, it will be worth sleeping on the couch all season.

I can't wait for September 6th!!! Let's hope we see our big boys up front cracking some heads and pushing people all over the field this season.

GO IRISH!!!
GO IRISH!!! | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 4:35 pm | #

I, too, have a shrine in my home. It is rather intricate, but suffice it to say it is centered around an autographed picture of Tony Rice that he sent me for Xmas one year (helluva guy), a 1978 Lou Holtz Arkansas Action Figure, and autographed pic signed by both Charlie and Brady, Charlie and Lou's Books, and some candles that are lit on game-days and certain occasions.
Brad | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 4:49 pm | #

Pat,

Great post. I would add a couple things on the Jimmy side. I think in the PSU game and other early games, Jimmy probably felt he did not have the arm strength to get the ball where he needed it. My guess is that made him tentative.

The other thing I noticed is that when he scrambled, he always went right. In at least one case, BC seemed to be expecting that and a player was literally 'covering' the roll. Sharpley had a tendency to step up and throw to get rid of the ball. Clausen did not. Perhaps an arm strength issue, but also an experience one. In HS, given the talent he had, he probably never needed to 'speed up' his decisions.

Your post actually gives reasons for a lot of optimism. If Clausen's arm is stronger and he releases sooner, rolls in more than one direction and does not run out of bounds with the ball, probably 16 or 18 of the sacks go away. The line should be able to cut down on 5-10 if they stop cut blocking ineffectively. With two easy steps, and not much improvement, you are back at respectable numbers. With decent improvement, we should keep Jimmy alive all season.
Andy T | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 6:59 pm | #

Latina just needs to teach the O-line the "Hickory Picket Fence", so Jimmy (Chitwood) Clausen can get the shot off before the sack buzzer sounds.
Nate | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 7:13 pm | #

For those of us in our dotage, the EA Sports NCAA Football 2009 PS2,

has quite a nice edition. Many nice improvements.
I'm sure my admission chances to ND would have been severely compromised, had I grown up in the PS2/3 XBOX generation.
Dana Payne | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 9:19 pm | #

Game play thus far reflects very faithfully this post.
Dana Payne | Email | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 9:21 pm | #

Pat,

Thanks for the ND football post.
ThE LoSt BoY | Email | Homepage | 07.19.08 - 1:33 pm | #

"Borderline unwatchable"?

Take out the borderline and you got it right.

GREAT anaylsis...I say 7 wins next year.
Furjanic Stonebreaker | Email | Homepage | 07.19.08 - 6:11 pm | #

That correlation between blowouts (15+ pt losses) and # of sacks (26) is truly awful.
Chris | Email | Homepage | 07.19.08 - 7:17 pm | #

: )
R2K | Email | Homepage | 07.19.08 - 9:59 pm | #

I'm not a glass-half-empty kind of person, but I see no reason for optimism this year--unless one defines being optimistic as believing this team will be marginally better than last year.

Yes, the schedule will be easier, so wins should be more prevalent. But wins are not the measure of a good team (see, e.g., Hawaii). What is the measure of a good team is the ability to beat other good teams, and this team has not beaten a quality opponent in years. More importantly, though, the core group of current players has not shown it can compete with other elite teams. Until it does so, I see no reason to believe that this team can achieve any better than an 8-4 record this year.

Last year, this blog posted the pre-season predictions of nine BGS bloggers. Not one of them predicted ND would fare any worse than 8-4. Not one of them predicted a loss to MSU, to Purdue, to Navy, or to Air Force. All but one predicted a win against Georgia Tech, a team which ND lost to by 30 points. Only three bloggers predicted losses to Michigan and BC, games in which ND was out-scored by a combined 51 points.

The point of all this isn't to dwell on last season's woes. Instead, it's to wake up the homer domers, the glassy-eyed, and the dull. Let's all be realistic: this year won't be pretty.
Tyler | Email | Homepage | 07.19.08 - 10:48 pm | #

Tyler,
No one here is getting paid for their predictions. There were plenty of paid pundits who claimed Notre Dame would be lucky to get one win in their first six games during the 2005 season. We remember how that turned out.

As an alum, it is my god-given right to drink as much Kool-Aid as I want to when I view the prospects of the Irish. The same goes for any other ravenous fan out there.

You say that this year isn't going to be pretty, but then say you think 8-4 is a realistic record. 5 wins is an enormous swing; especially considering the way we were manhandled by most teams last year.

8-4 would almost certainly be viewed as a universal success, and anything better (depending on who the wins were against and whether the losses were lopsided) would probably get CW votes for coach of the year...
NavyJoe | Email | Homepage | 07.20.08 - 8:12 am | #

You're free to drink as much Kool-Aid as you'd like, but everyone else is free to watch and laugh as you predict ridiculous accomplishments for ND this year. We'll beat Michigan and USC! A BSC berth is guaranteed! Charlie Weis will drop a hundred pounds and win coach of the year!

The point of my original post was made explicit in the last line: be realistic. This team isn't very good, and going 8-4 wouldn't be a big accomplishment for any team with ND's schedule. They're likely to lose all four games against quality opponents (i.e., Michigan, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, and USC), and the rest of the teams are softer than Charmin. If you're excited about the prospect of beating San Diego State, Purdue, Stanford, North Carolina, Washington, Navy, and Syracuse, then I pity you.
Tyler | Email | Homepage | 07.20.08 - 12:02 pm | #

Not being a homer, but Tyler the only surely tough opponent is USC. Mich is in transition, MSU is well, MSU, and Pitt is coached by Wannie. Last year was horrible,but with another year comes experience and hopefully better preparation. My biggest concern with our squad is consistency from week to week.
Domer Dan | Email | Homepage | 07.20.08 - 2:27 pm | #

Don't put words into my mouth. I said the EXACT same thing you did: 8-4. I didn't make any outlandish claims about beating USC or Michigan (BTW, I forgot how great UM is supposed to be this year) and I didn't say anything about the BCS.



I feel I viewed 8-4 realistically; while you, on the other hand, have some contrived notion that ND finishing with 8 wins this year would "not be pretty."



You think our schedule is soft. I can't argue with that, but we won't really know until the end of the year, now will we?



Who, exactly, is the core group of players that have proven they can't play with elite teams? Is it all the freshman and sophomores that we threw out there last year? We fielded the youngest team in the history of the freaking program and you're ready to discard them quicker than that shitty Charmin you so metaphorically alluded to.





What's better, going 8-4 and losing to the four teams we're "supposed" to lose to, or going 8-4 and losing to the teams we're "supposed" to beat? From your general attitude, I'd say you'd opt for the latter.



Well, big upsets are fun when you're in the stands, but consistently losing to teams that you should beat says much more about a team/coaching staff. We had our share of upsets when I was a student from 2001-2004 (Michigan a few times, Tennessee, Florida St., etc) but all of those ND teams were pretty bad. The CW era hasn't been defined by upsets but, last year notwithstanding, we didn't lose to teams that we were better than (with the exception of MSU in 2005).



After last year's atrocity, I am excited about beating SDSU, Purdue, Stanford, NC, Washington, Navy, and Syracuse. Guess what, I'm also excited about beating two of those four "quality" teams that we're playing as well.



If being happy about 8 wins is deserving of pity then you better set some time aside in December because I have a feeling that there's going to be a whole lot of Irish fans out there that will be in need of some of your "support."



Hey, I could be wrong, if there are any other BGS people out there who think 8 wins would be a pitiful disappointment, I'd love to hear from you as well...
NavyJoe | Email | Homepage | 07.20.08 - 3:09 pm | #

my apologies for the weird spacing. i'm posting from the Persian Gulf, so I'm going to have to blame it on the "axis of evil." ;)
NavyJoe | Email | Homepage | 07.20.08 - 3:11 pm | #

Thank you for being there Navy Joe. Good luck and God's speed home.

I think you, without the wierd spacing, are asking Tyler why he feels a team he hasn't seen play, isn't very good. I'd kinda like to know as well. Some specific analysis would surely be helpful.

Oddly, I tend to agree with him as to Ws & Ls, but I think we can beat Mich and Pitt. On the other hand, BC
at Chetstnut Hill is not going to be a walk in the park. NC has a really good coach and Washington is going to be jacked up unless they go O-fer in the early season. So 8-4 might be right.

Problem is, statements such as "this team isn't very good" don't count for much at this time of year. This team could actually be VERY good if you look at the individual talent level (I think our QB is going to be a great one...this year? Don't know). Then again, some of our opponents might be a lot better than we expect. Some come on Tyler, do a Pat. Why aren't we very good? Your analysis please. You owe it to this brave, young Domer on freedom's front line.
Domerplayer | Email | Homepage | 07.20.08 - 3:49 pm | #

I don't know if we are ready to expect anything in terms of wins from this team yet. If we went the entire year without suffering a blowout (I'd take an exciting ten point loss to USC if it took all four quarters), then I'd be ready to expect big things in '09. I want to watch a team that shows it deserves to be on the field every down it plays. If they come up a little short in the wins column this year, I'm okay, as long as we are legitimately competing. To answer NavyJoe, 8 wins would have me pretty psyched, as long as the four were not 38 point losses. Keep up the good work over there. Hopefully, you'll be watching these games in person soon.

This season's t-shirt: 9-3 IS good enough???
flannercock | Email | Homepage | 07.20.08 - 3:50 pm | #

Talk about putting words in others' mouths. I never said 8 wins was a pitiful disappointment, nor did I say that I wouldn't be happy about 8 wins. What I said was that the prospect of 8 wins against shitty opponents doesn't excite me, and that I pity anyone who gets excited about beating perennial doormats. Please tell me, where's the excitement in beating Syracuse, a team whose record the last three years is 7-28? Or Stanford, whose record over the same period is 10-24? Or North Carolina, whose record over the same period is 12-23? Or San Diego State, whose record over the same period is 12-24? Or Washington, whose record over the same period is 11-25?
Tyler | Email | Homepage | 07.20.08 - 4:02 pm | #

Maybe it wasn't your intention, but you predicted 8-4, and in the same breath, said the season wasn't going to be a pretty one.
And you're right, I'm not going to jump for joy when we beat SDSU or Syracuse but I do believe that if we show the ability to consistently beat the lesser teams, the likelihood of us competing and possibly beating an "elite" team is greatly improved.
Don't discount the "confidence" factor either. If we roll into a big game not having lost, or on a good roll, I'd say our chances would be a lot better than if we went into it with a goose egg in the W column, a la last year.
NavyJoe | Email | Homepage | 07.20.08 - 4:55 pm | #

Flannercock,
Funny story, I'm stationed in SD and I was trying to get USC/ND tickets. For whatever reason, my application got lost in the mail (so I thought). Anyway, I did manage to find some on Stubhub.
I had my wife order the two tickets with my credit card. After she saw what the total was (about 3x the normal price), she emailed me and said something along the lines of "sorry, I guess I should have sent that ticket application in like you asked me to back in March."
I'm hoping the game will be meaningful or, at the very least, we can pull a Stanford.
NavyJoe | Email | Homepage | 07.20.08 - 5:07 pm | #

Tyler, you seem to be stuck in a rut. I think you predicted 8-4, NAVY JOE thinks you predicted 8-4, but if you say you didn't, you didn't. However, I would STILL like to know why you think this team isn't very good. Common Tyler, share your knowledge. The schedule is what it is as the great Bob Davie used to say but all of us need all the intel and insight we can get, so we know what to expect.
Anonymous | Email | Homepage | 07.20.08 - 5:11 pm | #

@ Anonymous

I never predicted an 8-4 season, but I did say that 8-4 is a reasonable possibility. A bounce here or a fumble there, and it could be 9-3 or 6-6.

As far as why this team isn't very good, well...did you watch the 2007 season? If not, here's a recap: ND went 3-9 AND lost to Navy AND lost Air Force AND only beat Stanford by a touchdown AND lost by two touchdowns or more to six teams. Need I say more?
Tyler | Email | Homepage | 07.20.08 - 9:34 pm | #

new commit

Indianapolis offensive tackle Zach Martin has submitted his pledge to the Irish.

http://blogs.chicagosports.chica...-pick-up- o.html
Anonymous | Email | Homepage | 07.20.08 - 9:42 pm | #

Somebody mentioned the players’ hard work (strength and conditioning) during the off-season in previous posts.

After 4 years, let’s hope The Mendoza’s Way worked in this time..


Interesting article:

http://www.sportsline.com/colleg...tory/10900421/ 2
I22 | Email | Homepage | 07.20.08 - 10:16 pm | #

Ei9ght wins would not be "a pitiful disappointment" and I see no basis why it should be.
lush | Email | Homepage | 07.20.08 - 10:56 pm | #

I think what Tyler is getting at, is that 8 wins could be deceptive, depending on who we beat and how the games go. I agree with this to an extent. If we get hosed by the teams that are supposed to beat us, and only eke out wins against teams we are supposed to beat, well eight wins might not be something to start writing Mark May about...
NavyJoe | Email | Homepage | 07.21.08 - 12:03 am | #

Ah, yeah Tyler you do. That was last year's team. This is this year's team. So why will it not be any good?A year older, a year wiser, a year stronger a year more experienced, a year with a maturing coaching staff (with one very big addition), a year with more speed and more depth and a more favorable schedule. In college football, each year, there MAY be 10 teams that seperate themselves; probably fewer. Can we be one of those? Probably not this year. But not very good? The entire ND nation awaits your in depth analysis as to why not very good, Tyler. You know, the old if not, why not. You're not going to disappoint us are you? There's a good lad.
Domerplayer | Email | Homepage | 07.21.08 - 12:13 am | #

Not a fan of your team (Go Dawgs!) but I wanted to say congrats on being listed as one of Bloggers "Blog's of Note"

Since your not in the SEC I can with full conviction wish you all the best for this up coming season!
JanetRN | Email | Homepage | 07.21.08 - 12:23 am | #

Janet RN

While not exactly a Dawg fan myself, I hope you stuff the Gators on Nov. 11.
Thanks for visiting.
GB | Email | Homepage | 07.21.08 - 5:26 am | #

I will be a Dawg on November 11th.
Voice in the Wilderness | Email | Homepage | 07.21.08 - 6:58 am | #

Regarding whether 8 wins is "exciting" or "acceptable" or whatever else, I think everyone needs to take it for what it is. ND went 3-9 last year. ND has not truly been in a National title hunt since 1993. ND's best seasons over the past 14 years have been 10-3 and ND has not won a bowl in that time. Whatever your thoughts are on these stats, these are facts. Given that, after having gone 3-9 last year, an 8-4 season in 2008, no matter WHO we beat, is a successful season. You can argue the details all you want, but a win is a win and a loss is a loss. I'll take 8-4 this year as a stepping stone to next year, when we SHOULD expect some very good things. As it stands, we were one of the worst teams in the country last year. Let's win more games than we lose in 2008 and WIN A BOWL GAME and then we can talk about WHO we beat and what our standards should be from 2009 onward.
Jonathan Domer | Email | Homepage | 07.21.08 - 11:59 am | #

Janet,

Also, my seven year-old son mourns/celebrates the death/rebirth of the nation's best live mascot: UGA.
Hal | Email | Homepage | 07.21.08 - 12:08 pm | #

Great post.

All of the comments about having another year of experience, more time in the weight room and more time to develop technique are, we hope, correct. I am neither optimistic not pessimistic on this score -- I am completely agnostic.

However, all of the better strength, better technique and better experience will be for naught unless this line develops some attitude.

What I saw too many times last year, including from Young and Turkovich, were plays when they got their hands on the rushing defender and pushed the defender away. They then stopped, as if the play was over, while the defender kept his feet, regrouped and rushed right on by our guys to the QB. Our O line had too many plays where they all but quit after one initial bump.

An O lineman needs to make up his mind that NO ONE is getting past me on this play (or, on a run play, that the guy across from me is going to go backwards, no matter what). Look at Navy offensive line (and defensive line, for that matter) in last year's game. They were not bigger or stronger or even much more experienced. I doubt that they were better coached, at least in technical terms. What they had was attitude.

The way to built attitude? Strength helps (the Nebraska strength coach years ago said that "strength breeds confidence). So does a knowledge that they guys around you are good. But I think the most important thing to do is to get off to a quick start this year -- which will be tough with this schedule. What I would do is to run the ball against SD State in the first quarter (linemen love to run the ball - running downhill is fun), and then mix up 50/50 with the pass in the second quarter. If that works, the line will have some confidence heading against Michigan, and we hope they feel they have something to prove on their home turf against the defense that embarrassed them last year.
MarkG | Email | Homepage | 07.21.08 - 2:07 pm | #

Pat,

It the numbers came up fine for me today.

Thanks,
JM
JM | Email | Homepage | 07.21.08 - 2:21 pm | #

Great stuff Pat; As to any naysayers who would suggest 8-4 isn't saying much-you do all opponents a disservice. A couple of our all time best teams got upset by "crummy" teams. UCLA beat an invincible USC and lowly Stanford did it last year. To finish 8-4 or 9-3 will be great result because the game is played on the field and not on the blogs.
canuck 75 | Email | Homepage | 07.21.08 - 5:03 pm | #

Personally I think the line problems were a by product of Charlie insisting on all the OL-men cross training positions. Far too often last season guys seemed to not know who they were supposed to block. It took away their aggressiveness in a "paralysis by analysis" sort of way. Hopefully this year guys are assigned possitions. Then they can master that postions assignments and build some continuity.
aaron b | Email | Homepage | 07.22.08 - 12:49 pm | #