I'm just excited we can't lose this weekend so I don't have to all depressed.

I'll save that for next weekend. Though I freely admit I will cheer Navy if/when they win.

Plus I'll be tailgating with a bunch of Midies. Should be a good time


Great job guys. Glad to see this hasn't gone completely into the dustbin -- it's an interesting experiment and I've enjoyed following it over the past couple of years.

Re: UM in the top 3; maybe one way to tweak the Conversation would be to penalize teams more severely for losing to I-AA teams, and adding no points for a win against a I-AA team...they wouldn't even count as ""wins" at all. Furthermore, the I-AA opponent's W-L record should not be factored into the Opponent Bonus.

This sort of thing seems to fit into the overall idea behind the Conversation's rewarding of tough schedule and punishing bad losses. If expanded on a national level this would certainly discourage future scheduling of I-AA teams.

I wonder how far down those tweaks would push UM in these rankings. Hopefully at least below teams like ASU and tOSU where they clearly belong at this point (although I agree the bucks haven't proven much yet).

Otherwise, I think UM does belong somewhere in the top 15 or so. Their loss to Oregon is looking better and better as Oregon is plainly a good team. And since that loss UM's been steady if not spectacular. Remember, they were highly ranked by the other polls for a reason -- stocked with talent and senior leadership, etc. They just proved themselves to be true inheritors of Bo's legacy by folding to inferior opposition and embarrassing themselves on the national scene.


Hm, OK, I actually went back and read the original "conversation" post...I had forgotten the Conversation already disqualifies wins against I-AA teams. (I also mistakenly thought that UM's squeaker win over noted football powerhouse Eastern Michigan was a I-AA game -- I forgot they're in the MAC.)

So I guess my points can be boiled down to these two questions:

- UM is -2 for their two losses (Oregon, ASU). Should the AppSt. loss count for more than just one?

- Is App. State's W-L record factored into UM's Opp Bonus? If so, should it be removed?


Jay,

Here's how I would handle a loss to a 1-AA team: for purposes of calculating that game's effect on Opponent Bonus, substitute the record of the 1-A team with the worst record for that of the 1-AA team.

There's two reasons for doing this. First, I think of a loss to a 1-AA team like a disqualification in one event of a multi-event sport, where the person that DQs automatically gets the worst score in that event. A team that loses to a 1-AA team should automatically get the worst one-game point total.

Second, it's punitive. Sure, a 1-AA team might be better than the worst 1-A team. But the simple act of a scheduling a 1-AA team in the first place raises questions about a team's place in the conversation. We penalize teams that beat 1-AA teams by ignoring the win. We need a bigger penalty for teams that actually lose to 1-AA teams, and I think the above system works a certain rough justice.


Hey Guys;

Where's the gametime kickoff pick?


Hey,

I think this system is quite flawed. Take for example Notre Dame. Despite a 1-7 record, Notre Dame would have 28 points according to this formula (entering Saturday). Yes, I realize common sense alone would remove Notre Dame, but clearly this method needs to be refined.


"Take for example Notre Dame. Despite a 1-7 record, Notre Dame would have 28 points according to this formula (entering Saturday)."

No it wouldn't.


You might want to read up on the methodology first.


Guys:
You've got BC in the Big East. I believe theyt are in the ACC?


Thanks.

Mentally, they'll always be in the Big East.


Anybody watch usc taste the bitter herb of defeat against the green & yellow clad ducks?


with extreme pleasure - though I actually like USC under Carroll infinitely more than under jerks like McKay, Robinson, and Smith. You gotta give them their due - til this year, they have been as dominant between 2003-2006 as any team in my lifetime. And under Carroll - The Rock Report despite - they play with more class than under any combination of any five of their other coaches in history. IMHO.


Now, if I may be so bold, the BGS nation turns attention to ga - fl and we root for the bulldogs...


for my money, we root for ANY team not coached by Urban Meyer. But Georgia is an especially attractive choice.


and Meyer f's up. Life has its sweetnesses.


What a nice weekend for a change!!
My blood pressure is waaay down and I can watch football enjoyably!
Watching Urban Myer and Flawda lose coupled with a U$C loss (and drop them out of any NC hopes) just completes the day.
I sure hope we don't play next week, this was actually one of the best Saturdays I've had in a couple months :)


Delaware put up, what, 49 on Navy? Delaware. We better put up some serious offensive numbers next week.


Looks like tOSU and Oregon are solidifying top 5 spots along side LSU and BC. I'm betting on an ASU loss tonight, which would free somethings up @ the top (Kansas, anyone?)


Yes, we should be able to *cough* run the ball against navy? here's hoping?


bcuster.... bite my shiny metal ass.

I'm as big a ND fan as they come but I am not Catholic. so the hell with BC.

For me, as an Irish Protestant, its not about what sect they follow but the quality of men they produce.

(And don't even try to tell me the VAST majority of ND football players are practicing Catholics. You're dreaming)


Just to clarify, Roman Catholicism is the tradition, the Protestestant off-shoots are the sects.

I'm sure you're right about the players, but Notre Dame means 'Our Lady' and that's not for nothing.


This blog is about ND college football, not religion.

If you start going down that path, things get dicey.


Notre Dame means our mother? Huh. Never knew.


Der.

Not going on about religion, and I've probably been in more Catholic masses than Protestant, but for me I've never seen it as such a STRICT Catholic school. To me, lifelong fan and funder, its just a college albeit with amazing tradition and strength of character which is amazingly rare in todays athletics. And since most players are probably non-Catholic Christians (plus Raghib Ismail? WTF) I guess I never really ever focused on the "Catholic" part.

Anyways good news, guys!

ND: 2
BYE: 0

Thats a win!


I'm all for conversations generally, but I stick to my guns that Wes Colley's BCS "computer poll" www.colleyrankings.com is quite simply the best answer 99% of the time. It basically matches your conversation up through michigan which everyone agrees doesn't belong up towards the top. Check it out.


If you want a diversion and harsh criticism, go on the Penn State and Southern Cal fan blogs among others today.


An old Notre Dame dorm rector once told me that the best ND teams always had mostly Catholic linemen and mostly Baptist backs and receivers.


How does one explain that tOSU has only 5 seniors on their two deep?
Yes Bruin Nation, LA Times, Conquest Chronicles, are having a field day with Carroll & Dorrell.


Sounds about right. And the occasional Serbian Orthodox wideout doesn't seem to hurt, either.


If he can pass or catch, run, block or tackle, I dont care what religion he is


If he can pass or catch, run, block or tackle, I dont care what religion he is

Or she is.


Add Erickson of ASU to that list of failed pro coaches who are extremely successful at the college level.
Erickson
Lou (not that Lou) Holtz
Carrol.
Saban.
Spurrier
Reily, OSU
Davis, UNC.


Don't forget Barry Switzer.

That Super Bowl was Jimmy Johnson's ghost third ring.


jim masterson, your list is cool and provokes me to think of others. I suggest Gene Stallings, Dan Devine, John McKay, John Robinson, Bill Walsh, Denny Green, June Jones (iffy, I know), Ron Meyer (although, technically S.M.U. was a professional program when he was there), Dick Vermeil, John Mackovic. Al Groh, until this year, would be on a "failure at both levels" list, but anyone who can get the Wahoos to win 7 games in a season, automatically comes off the "failure at college" list. Same thing could be said for Rich Brooks. Brooks is the coach who released Jerome Bettis from the Rams. Genius. Dave Wannstedt should be on the "double busters" list, while a "great success at both levels" list would include Jimmy Johnson (I am puking while I type), Barry Switzer, Bill Arnsparger.


I agree with NDdallas' assessment of Switzer, although, history books will record that he won collegiate nat'l championships as well as a Super Bowl. Just keeping Michael Irvin out of jail or detox during the season ought to be worth something, and Barry had lots of experience dealing with drug fiends at OU.


Voice: I knew you'd fill in the blanks. Great job!
Paul Brown: tOSU, before it was known as THE and the Cleveland Browns, Bengals?
Wow! Kind of forgot what an outlaw conference "the old" Southwest Conference was in it's prime.
The ball-players at all the power schools had the latest in the driving fads.


PS.
How hot is Tom Brady of NE. 30td passes in the first 8 games. Still 12 min. to go in the 4th qtr. against the 'skins.


Bill Walsh's name puzzles me on the Voice list. He did ok in his first stint with Stanford, then merely revolutionized the pro game and won three Super Bowls. ?


And Vermeil? - won a Rose Bowl with UCLA over #1 tOSU and took and went to two Super Bowls, winning one. According to Wiki, the only man to be named Coach of the year at the hs., JC, college, and pro levels...


And since most players are probably non-Catholic Christians (plus Raghib Ismail? WTF) I guess I never really ever focused on the "Catholic" part.

Ismail is a Muslim. And not the only one at ND: Karmeleeya McGill (I know I messed up the spelling), and Ryan Harris (a convert to Islam) were others.


"Ismail is a Muslim."

Not.

http://www.greeleytrib.com/artic...RTOPS/ 104150136


What's with Belechik trying to run up the score? When the lead got to 31-0 or at least 38-0 I think I'd be pulling my starters out of the game and avoid possibility of injury.


Bobby Ross, Gary Moeller, Pepper Rogers, Al Luckenbill, Chan Gaily.


Steve Mariucci and Tom Coughlin


Hmmm...Doug's list looks like coaches who haven't been especially successful at either level.


JimK et al...I went all dyslexic and made a mess of jim masterson's list. I think I reversed the plan regarding Walsh and God knows why I put Vermeil on it. If anyone finds other glaring "WTF's", please go easy on me. I wish I could just take that damn post back! Watched lots of pro ball today, to go with tons of games yesterday, and I'm still sort of euphoric ND didn't lose. My brain's going soft!


Bobby Ross won a National Championship at Georgia Tech (not expected) and took the San Diego Chargers to the Super Bowl (also unexpected).

College success + NFL flop? how about Dan Devine?!
Flop at both levels? how about Joe Kuharich?


Joe Kuharich was a failure at both levels, but an evil genius. While as both GM & Coach of the Eagles, he signed himself to a ten (10) year extension as GM. What a set of ball$
John McKay: the best line ever.
Q. "What about your offensive execution."
A. " I'm all in favor of it."
His son is now the GM at Jax, or TB, was at Atlanta. Maybe made the trade of two "1's for "Ron Mexico" aka. Michael Vick.


jim masterson, I agree about the hilarity of John McKay's famous line. He said that during the year his Bucs went 0-14. His son Rich became the GM at Tampa (many years later), and has been the GM of the Falcons for the past 4-5 years. James "Shack" Harris is the moron GM of the Jaguars, and is the man responsible for not taking Brady Quinn TWICE in the first round of the most recent NFL draft. Watch for this coconut to get pink slipped at the end of this season as Jacksonville's QB woes are serious, and Jack Del Rio is on the record of wanting to draft BQ when he fell right into their laps. Harris nixed it.


Gonna be exciting...


Voice, another great McKay line from that time: "Well, we can't win at home and we can't win on the road and I can't think of anywhere else to play"!

btw, as bad as Jacksonville's front office is, Miami's is worse. They also passed on Quinn to take Ted Ginn jr. The reason they gave was that Quinn had been so well coached they weren't sure he could improve! There are reasons some teams stink every year.


The Poodle must be crying. They play a quality team (Oregon) and get a big L. They still have California, ASU, and UCLA. Would it not be fantastic to see them with five losses? I didn't realize they had played such a schedule.


I know this is the "Duff Man" of Blue Gold Ill. fame.
McKay,pere,JT, fils. The son was Pat Hayden's favorite target in HS, Mater Dei?, & at U$C.
Pere McKay said upon recruiting his son, "it was the first time he was forced to sleep with the Mother of a recruit."
He always told his teams, against ND, this is a national game, UCLA, a city game. Big difference to him & his teams.


Jay, I would like to see this analysis after the season is finished but before the bowl parade begins. It could be the greatest idea in the world, but the BCS will not change. However, it is great for discussing college football over our favorite beverage.


DuffMan, Thanks for paraphrasing what the Dolphins said when they passed over BQ. Hilarious! Cam Cameron is getting his butt whipped every week, but I am sure he's upbeat this morning since Ginn caught a TD pass vs the Giants at Wembley yesterday. I'm sure you have seen the video of the Dolphin fans booing Cameron when, during their draft party, he stepped to the podium, after skipping on BQ and taking Ginn, and was met with thunderous disapproval and boos. I watch that on youtube every now and then. It always cheers me up.


Yes. I think a 4 loss season is very possible for USC. You have to wonder if there are maybe too many personalities on that team now, or if Carol's lax discipline policy is catching up with him, or if Carol wasn't ever a great coach at all but instead just a fantastic recruiter and cheerleader.

I know injuries have hampered their team a little, but the fact that their talent pool is the miles ahead of the rest of the Pac-10 alone is reason enough for LA fans (because let's be honest, most LA fans own both an SC and UCLA flag and put one out when that team is doing well) to be upset.

Carol's penchant for running up the score in years past will likely catch up with him soon.


Yes, thankfully there are many opportunities to rejoice in the misery of others this year, even as we wallow in our own. Not only the dolphins' implosion, but the way the Huskies' bandwagon seems to have emptied of national sportswriters.


The Huskies' bandwagon empties of national sportwriters the moment they lose their second game of the year - which thankfully happened in week 4.

My coworker and I made some predictions on various teams at the beginning of the year. He predicted UM to go 12-0, I said 9-3. He picked FL to lose 3, I said 2. I said 8 wins for ND, he said 7 (yikes!). But of course the one I made him predict was the Washington season led by [NAME REDACTED]. He actually thought that the Huskies could pull out 5 wins, but I said they won't do any better than 3-9. Not too many more games for the Huskies to play to get one more win.

And of course, [NAME REDACTED] had a 16 point lead at the beginning of the 4th quarter this past week, and grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory. Anyone think that [NAME REDACTED] won't be in attendance at the 2008 meeting with the Irish?

There won't be anything better than watching ND hit paydirt in 2008 when they face the Huskies. New team, new fundamentals, a "restart" so to speak, and lots of confidence as the team continues to build after rolling off 4 consecutive wins at the end of 2007.


Chris, note that UW is playing 13 games this season thanks to the trip to Hawaii.


Well, then, I guess that means [NAME REDACTED] finishes 3-10 instead.

More evidence for the media to crucify the "Molder of Men" as a lousy coach and mostly just "Mold".

Oh, wait, that won't happen because that will only prove that Notre Dame knew exactly what it was doing when it fired [NAME REDACTED] - and we can't let that happen, now can we?


I'm not going to say anything about UW when they have more wins than we do right now.

Tommy O: My argument (because I have nothing better to do) is that it's not running up the score when you call a run play to Reggie Bush and he breaks it for an 80 yd TD. I guess you could pull him from the game, though.

Re Belichek running up the score: The announcers purported that it was to show everyone that he doesn't need to cheat to be successful and that the video thing was a flash-in-the-pan fluke. It's been pretty convincing if you ask me. The Pats have been dominating all aspects of the game. Question: Is it considering running up the score more if you go for it on 4th and 2 late in the game or if you kick the field goal? The announcers tried to defend him by saying the 4th down conversion could fail and then you're essentially just giving them the ball back, but it worked and Tom Brady threw his 31st TD of the season a couple plays later.


There is an interesting article on the Bloomberg.com financial board.
Under sports; the title is academics in public universities.
Included are the salaries + bonuses for academic progress. It's a joke.
Cal Berkely. Football grad rate. 37% v. 86% for overall student body.
Ruptures, I mean Rutgers, no offense Lou Holtz, the real Lou, not "the other Lou.'
RU. 50% for football players v. 72% for all students.
Granted the athlete has to spend minimum of 20 hrs. a week in practice. Somehow that is never accounted for in these stats.
Confusing as hell.


i just heard that CW spent the weekend watching horse races in nj. you would think he had more important things to tend to in south bend.


Erik,

I question why Tom Brady was even in the game at that point.


Tommy O,

I think the most significant factors at SC are the losses of assistant coaches.

Regardless, history proves that it's really, really hard to live at the pinnacle of the college game for longer than five or six years at a time. (Think ND from '88-'93, Miami in the mid-80s and Nebraska in the 90s.)

There are obviously teams that can sustain a stay in the ranks just below the pinnacle. Oklahoma, Texas, and Ohio State to name three. But to be that one team that everyone else is chasing? That requires a perfect alignment of the stars.

SC's not going to fall off the map any time soon. But it sure feels like their stranglehold at the top has ended.


By the way, it's my personal opinion that if SC wins only one championship in this era, they've dramatically underperformed.

I guess you could argue the same for the Irish in their '88-'93 run, though I think it's pretty well established that they got robbed in either '93 or '89 (one of the other; not both).

I can't wait until I can stop having to refer back to my college days when searching for examples of Irish success.

By the way, I don't find these SC teams to be short on sportsmanship. I hate them, but I also respect them.


I don't have a problem with CW being at the horse races in Jersey. If recruiting is permitted this time of the year, he may have been making contacts while he was in NJ. At the very least he might have been visiting high school coaches without making student contact. Until we have all of the facts, let's not be too critical. Even then, I don't have a problem with him finding time to relax.


Yes, in general I have a lot of respect for the fans and football at USC, but I have to say that PC looks like a winner now because of some great assistants and some very very lax policing of NCAA rules. I think He and the rest of them knew very well what has been going on with Bush and undoubtably others, and simply looked the other way.

And Chris, you and I are of one mind, but when I refer to the national bandwagon I mean all the nitwits looking to beat on us with [name redacted]'s success at UW, which very nearly revived after a close loss to USC, but now is too flaccid a Shillelagh for even May to take in hand. Good Riddance!


Are those the same horse races that came on ESPN immediately after College Gameday concluded? If so, why would anybody go to a horse race like that instead of watching it on TV and then having the rest of your day freed up to watch your peers play football? I wonder if CW bets on the ponies. Good Lord, I hope he doesn't.


He was probably there with his buddy Parcells.
The race was from Monmouth Park in NJ.
He may have been also visiting old friends, family, looking at Hafis Williams on Fri. night.
Give the guy a break.
The kids were home for semester break, & the ass't's need time to recharge & have time with family away from their vocation.
Geez!


Guys:
Go onto Conquest Chronicles and read the way some SC fans are now trashing Pete Caroll and some of his assistant coaches.


One more:

Lead story on the Nittany Line:

"..it's time for a complete scrubbing of the coaching staff.."

Two years ag, PSU was two seconds away from being undefeated and untied.


Indy,


I'd agree that for the most-part, USC is a respectable opponent, with what I would consider to be great fans.

But USC has been run quite shoddily in the past few years. They have kids getting arrested for assault, rape, and dealing X, and on top of that they had a WR living in a $5k a month appartment paid for by another players father (and booster).

Also, I am saddened that the NCAA has done nothing to Reggie Bush. The man has parents who are a janitor and corrections worker (not that there is anything wrong with that) who moved into an $800,000 house while their son was at USC (plus an estimated $200-300k in gifts). No one can get me to believe that nobody on that team or coaching staff (or even Reggie) knew about that. That makes what happened to the Fab Five look innocent in comparison, and the NCAA had no problem stripping them. When did the NCAA lose its balls entirely?


Erik,

I also question why Brady was throwing instead of putting it on the ground in the 4th Q.


...did y'all miss me?


Where have you been big boy!
It's like having hot apple pie w/o ice cream.
Ham w/o eggs


In regards to the Patriots in my opinion BB is not happy getting caught cheating, so if he has the chance to put up 50, he is going to. We will see how good his team is this weekend, as they finally play a team with a decent defense. I really don't see him sitting his starters in games 14-16, because if they win this weekend he will want to go undefeated. Hey Miami, how is Ted Ginn Jr. doing for you, have you won yet? Maybe they will be the only team in NFL history to go undefeated and also go winless. Oh the irony.


I had to evacuate my house...


jim/redondo...I hope all is allright there. I can imagine that is quite stressful. Good seeing you back...


The Pats were still going for it late in the 4th quarter because Belichick is a classless a-hole.

That said, if the Redskins hated it so much, they should have maybe stopped them for once. Pretty pathetic job for a rather highly-rated defense.


Has Notre Dame's awful season sucked the life out of this fine blog? No new posts since Saturday?


Hello, I emailed you about possibly exchanging links on our websites. Please let me knonw, it would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.


Jim in Redondo... glad you're alive. Try being a little less bitter. You'll live longer.


http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/re...? playerId=50597

Time to get scared. So Cal is courting Big Bad Omar Hunter.


Fighting Binny- consider the source...wearesc.com


plus it doesn;t even say 'will' it says 'may'


still, disconcerting.
have to assume a couple of commits de-commit before feb, but it still sucks when you read these rumours.
anybody have a guess: what does weis do here? tell the kid "you visit and we're pulling our offer" or
"whimper".


Please, for the love of God, stick with us Omar. You'll be starting next year, and Lord do we need you.


Hate to pile on the rumor wagon, but word is Crist may visit Oregon.


From what I've heard there's nothing to the Omar Hunter rumors. They're /hoping/ to get him to visit SC, but right now it looks like it definitely won't happen this weekend, and the SC people would be surprised if it happens at all.


damn. also don't wanna pile on rumor mill but crist's comments in a recent irish eyes were hardly comforting.
things like "yeah, it's definietly notre dame...for now". i'm paraphrasing a bit.
his de-commit, if it happens, is less worrisome to me than say omar or some of the o-linemen. he'd be a loss, no doubt, but n.d. needs to rebuild the lines.


I posted this in a different comments thread because I forgot that this was the most current one, but let me post it again in case anyone hasn't heard: Weis announced in his press conference this morning that Robert Hughes left the team this morning to be with his family after his brother died: http://www.irishenvy.com/irishro...cused-from- team.

Keep him and his family in your prayers.


May the peace of the Lord be with the Hughes family.


If these kids do decommitt I hope it is now as opposed to February. CW said he wouldn't get burned again, we will see if he can put his money where his mouth is.


Crist's Dad said he is 100% committed.


How exactly do you calculate the Opponent Bonus? It is not just the wins of teams you've beaten minus losses of teams you've lost to. If so, then at the time of the post Michigan's opponent bonus would be +24 and Southern Cal's would be +7.

What is the criteria for which team's wins to count and which losses to count?


Jeff, to clarify: the wins portion only counts wins against BCS conference teams. If you want a fuller explanation of the methodology be sure to hit the link in the first line of the post.


Thanks Doug, Crumpler, et al...it wasn't because of the fires...I ran into an old girlfriend...and had to leave town...shall we say...quickly.


That can be worse than a fire, jim/redondo. The heat can be a lot hotter! HAHAHAHAHA....good luck.


Tweak Suggestion - "Opponent bonus" should (1) omit wins against D-II schools and (2) there should also be a default adjustment for losses to D-II schools.

(1) Teams get a lot of points for playing winning opponents, which is good unless those opponents are lining up against D-II schools.

(2) Losing to a D-II school must create a severe penalty in the calculation. The best example is Michigan, who is not being penalized enough in the Opponent Bonus for the loss to App. St. b/c App. St. only has 1 loss - which, for calculation purposes would be the same as losing to LSU.

I recommend a standard default of 11 losses goes into the calculation for losing to a D-II school (12 games - the victory over the D-I school). That would be a decent incentive to keep from scheduling D-II schools.


ctl, the Opponent Bonus already takes into account just BCS wins, so we're covered there. We not only omit D1AA, but also any non-BCS wins (MAC, CUSA, WAC, etc). It's stringent but that's the way we like it.

You're correct about building in a D1AA loss penalty. Mike had a good suggestion along your lines, too, earlier in the thread.


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