Pretty safe to say that the winners of the Outland (Joe Thomas), Biletnikoff (Calvin Johnson), and Butkus (Patrick Willis) will be the first at their position drafted this year. I doubt any of the others are.
Pat | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 9:49 am | #

two questions....

Is
Troy Smith in the draft?
and
How come Jamrcus Russell wasn't in the running for all the year end awards. I never really heard anything about him until the bowl game.
captain jack | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 9:52 am | #

Troy Smith is in the draft, but his height (barely 6'0") really hurts him as the NFL loves tall QBs. He'll probably be somewhere from the 5th to 8th QB taken.
Pat | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 10:27 am | #

I did hear one of the draft pundits on the radio recently saying OL were the positions easiest to correctly predict as far as NFL success is concerned.
indy | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 10:37 am | #

Tell that to the Oakland Raiders with their choice of Robert Gallery.
JohnWA | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 10:41 am | #

McFadden would likely have been the first running back chosen as well.
Michael | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 10:43 am | #

McFadden or Adrian Peterson is a bit more of a toss-up, but given Peterson's injury history you are probably right.
Pat | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 10:48 am | #

I think the main difference between the awards and punditry during the CFB season and the draft is that during the season all the hype is from sportswriters who are watching a half-dozen games a week, possibly covering multiple sports, and reading a lot of what other sportwriters have to say.

In the NFL draft, you have 32 teams going back and having paid professionals review every single piece of film on guys for every play, as well as applying some sophisticated data mining techniques to the process. There's no comparison in terms of rigor. That's why you often see the starting seniors on great teams like Alan Branch and Dwayne Jarrett 'dropping' late in the lead up to the draft - almost all the information we get is from the sports press, and it takes time for professional opinion, gossip, and draft day gamesmanship to gradually filter out from NFL insiders and dispel the fog of ignorance represented by the beat writers conventional wisdom, which naturally is biased toward good players on great teams over standouts at an individual position with potentially a very poor supporting cast.
indy | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 10:57 am | #

College awards don't pretend to indicate future success. It isn't the "going to be a nfl star" award it is a "college star" award. To compare how good a predictor it is is interesting, but to say "how could they do so badly?" is silly, when they weren't even considering future success at all. 0%.
Matt | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 11:05 am | #

College awards include a lot of hype that disappears by NFL draft day. Only certain NFL teams known for their bad decisions actually seem to notice a player's college hype. For example, the LSU fans I know say that JaMarcus Russell has a cannon for an arm, but he is inconsistent and not the brightest person lining up under center. Yet, he shreds ND's bad defense and suddenly he is the best QB entering the draft. I think if he isn't drafted by the Raiders, he won't get drafted until much later, because other teams that study his tape will recognize the problems that await.
JM | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 11:33 am | #

If, for whatever reason, Jamarcus doesn't go #1, the Browns will absolutely pick him up. I don't get the obsession with this guy, but it seems like NFL teams are in love with him.
Gabe | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 12:02 pm | #

Funny shit and worth a read:

http://www.theonion.com/content/ ..._im_going_to_be
Lowry | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 1:04 pm | #

Part of it is hubris. NFL coaches like to think that they can take a raw talent with insane measurables (like Russell) and mold him into the perfect player. It's ironic,really, because overall college coaches get more 'teaching time' than NFL coaches, IMO. They spend so much time preparing professionals to do their job they have little time to turn a a raw talent into a professional.

Second off, though I haven't read the main article yet, I'm pretty sure I knew the author in college. It was pretty weird seeing a recognizable name on top of a BGS article!
PAK '00 | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 1:06 pm | #

It's ironic,really, because overall college coaches get more 'teaching time' than NFL coaches, IMO.

And yet, Weis states that one of the benefits of coaching in college is that he gets to spend more time with his family because he can only spend 20 hours a week with the players. The pros have year-round access to their players.
DJ | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 1:24 pm | #

Yes, I am not sure that players or coaches would agree with that. In numerous interviews, Weis has mentioned how much less time he has to teach the players because of classes, study halls, etc. Whereas in the pros, they can practice all day long with various mini-camps and the sort in the off-season.
Michael | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 1:30 pm | #

I'm hoping that JaMarcus DOES go #1. As a Denver Bronco fan, I am looking forward to Champ Bailey and Dre Bly picking off his passes and seeing him get destroyed behind that crappy o-line. While it would be awesome to see Quinn in Denver every year playing, the Raiders are a crappy franchise with a crappy owner and have no real chance at improving until Al Davis croaks. Since he is currently 267 years old, I don't think he is going to die anytime soon. I hope JaMarcus plays for the Raiders and flames out just like Cryin Leaf did.
Mike | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 1:42 pm | #

I suggest, like above comments, that the inaccuracy likely has to do with the voters than the players.

I also suggest that only people who are truly experts would vote for position player awards, but as the positions move away from technique (OL, etc.) and towards statistics (QB, RB), the voting pool is crowded by more and more people who aren't truly experts but merely observers.
Klug | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 1:42 pm | #

Players who win the Heisman are often coming from really good teams or really good systems that allow them to excel. The team with the overall #1 pick in the draft is the worst team in the league. Therefore, they often need to pick someone who has had relatively good success with a far worse supporting cast.
Erik '04 | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 1:55 pm | #

The article is fun... but you can look at it another way.

In the last 25 yrs, 3 of the #1 draft picks went to a Heisman Winner, the other 22 went to everybody else. So a quick look there says your chances of going #1 are definitely better. Now we all know that the Heisman isn't an NFL litmus test, it is a college football award. So if you were to only evaluate those who carry the prototypical NFL stats, your chances of going #1 or at least in the first round are much higher.

Same goes for the charts built around the #1 position drafts... which range from 20 to 60%. The conclusion that carries no statistical shift in process mean and deviation from the "rest of them" is presumptuous. Once again, if you look at it rather as… 20-60% the top position pick goes to 1 guy, and 40-80% of the time it goes to everybody else, you are still doing pretty good.

You are, however, correct in your statement about sample size. Because we are dealing with attribute data, or failure rate… that is, failure to go #1 in the draft, there is no way to pull a statistical conclusion that one award is better at selecting draftees on a 3 vs. 4 count, or… at least a 70% chance that there is no statistical difference. To come to at least a rough statistical conclusion with the same proportions you would need about 200 years of data.
Rusty ND04 | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 2:54 pm | #

I can't wait the 200 years. But in 5 years, Quinn will be a success and I think Russell is problematic.
captain jack | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 3:48 pm | #

Sorry, I think this analysis is pretty weak.

Of the 15 Heisman winners that got drafted, 7 of them were drafted first at their position and 13 were drafted in the top 3 of their position. Its also worth noting that Manning deserved the Heisman in '97 and Bush deserved the top pick last year.

The disparity of opinion in the NFL and college football is not that huge, and can be explained by the fact that they are completely different games.

For example, in college, there is often enough speed difference between the receivers and secondary that you can beat a team simply by running past them and having the QB launch it. A QB doesn't have to be really precise with his throw and the receiver doesn't have to be precise with his route.

In the NFL you can't do that because 90% of the defensive backs are fast enough to be right with you. The emphasis changes to running a precise route and having an accurate pass.

Sidenote - take a look at Heisman winners and where they are drafted. The NFL has done a great job of drafting Heisman winners at the right spot in the last 20 years. Rashaan Salaam and Andre Ware are the only true busts.
Steve R | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 3:57 pm | #

I think you can add Eric Crouch to the list of true busts. Even if he wasn't drafted for the position he played in college, I just feel like calling him a bust is appropriate punishment for that touchdown celebration in overtime.
Brian 06 | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 5:24 pm | #

Well reasoned article but way off. NFL teams are NOT picking the best players. They are drafted to fill a need. They oftern pass up much more talented players becuase they silpmy don't need that position. They pass over players that don't fit their system. They draft players becuase they need depth at a position or they dont' want to try to sign a head case. The real analysis that needs to be done is the NFL success - or lack there of -- of award winners. I can tell you right now - Heisman's no guarantee of anything.
yago | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 5:39 pm | #

"NFL teams are NOT picking the best players. They are drafted to fill a need."

I think you're overstating the case a little bit. Not all teams have the same needs, and each position will find some set of teams that needs it. So, over the course of the draft, the best players WILL be drafted, just not in the order that fans would rank them. Occasionally there are good players who are not drafted, but, you know, the exception proves the rule, etc.
24 Hour | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 6:16 pm | #

Since 1960 name the Heismann winners who have gone on to great NFL careers.The Heismann is in no way any kind of guarantee or even a measure of who will be a great or even consistent performer in the NFL. Everyone needs to quit with the award winners making it in the NFL. Ask yourself what Joe Bellino, Terry Baker, John Hurate, Steve Spurrier, Gary Beban, Steve Owens, Pat Sullivan, Gino Torretta have in common. Heismann winners are more often than not busts in the NFL.
Doug | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 7:14 pm | #

Very impressive job by Michael Bangert. It's interesting to me that aside from the older, well established awards (Heisman, Outland, Camp, Maxwell) the newer college football awards are often named for players who became icons in the professional game. Unitas, Butkus, Biletnikoff, Mackey were certainly outstanding collegians, but all owe their fame and status to their subsequent achievements in the NFL. Dave Rimington is just the opposite. As a center he was a two-time Outland Winner at Nebraska, but was never really considered to be a tremendous pro. Having the center's award named for Dwight Stephenson would have fallen more into line with the others. Analogous to Rimington would be having the tight end award named for ND's own Ken Macafee. In my mind the best college TE ever, but inexplicably had a brief, dismal pro career. Although I don't know too much about John Mackey, I'm just glad that we won't have to endure a Shannon Sharpe TE award in the future, but a Reggie White DT/DE Award seems probable and warranted.
Voice in the Wilderness | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 10:14 pm | #

Great post, Mike. An enjoyable read. It is a worthwhile question to explore in my opinion, given all the hype we have to listen to during the award events in the fall. Let's see what happens tomorrow.
emeurope | Email | Homepage | 04.27.07 - 10:15 pm | #

The real analysis that would be fun is comparing the "pudnuts" predictions to the actually draft order.

My gut says they are wayyyy off. Especially when it gets past the first 6 - to dozen picks. Interesting to see their batting average...

24 hour - I think we basically agree. If I overstated it a bit that's primarily because its a blog and hyperbole is rewarded and I'm lonely.
yago | Email | Homepage | 04.28.07 - 9:38 am | #

Have you heard NFL Network's Mike Mayock's latest predictions for the first round? He's definitely drinking Jamarcus flavored Kool-Aid (says he's the greatest prospect in the history of the world) and has BQ going number nine to the Dolphins. While BQ would have that same Leinart-face during the free fall, in the long term playing for Cam Cameron in Miami might be the stuff dreams are made of. HOWEVER, Mayock is out of his mind and BQQB goes way earlier than ninth. In fact, Al Davis might pull the biggest surprise in memory and go numero uno with Quinn, but, as indy pointed out a month or so ago, Lane Kiffin's institutional loyalty to the Trojan Nation might prevent such an occurrence. What the hell am I talking about...Lane Kiffin is twelve years old and has as much influence on Al Davis as I do. Come on Al...listen to Tim Brown and pick one more Domer before your next meeting with Pete Rozelle.
Voice in the Wilderness | Email | Homepage | 04.28.07 - 10:49 am | #

Oops. Never mind.
Voice in the Wilderness | Email | Homepage | 04.28.07 - 4:57 pm | #