..."The 16 rushing yards against Michigan State were the fifth-fewest in the Weis era."...

...wow! if this isn't an indictment of the running back/offensive line talent/coaching...then...

...I hate to ask....but what were the four worse rushing yard totals that were under the 16-yards-per game?...

...no...I don't want to know...
jim/redondo beach | Email | Homepage | 09.25.08 - 12:08 pm | #

I think your defensive wins stat is very instructive. Ringer was effective but not dominating in the first half or even the beginning of the second half. It confirms that generally, ND's defense played a good enough game to win had they been helped by a competent offense.
IndyTom | Email | Homepage | 09.25.08 - 12:20 pm | #

The 1st down win rate could also show that our defense was keying in on the run on 1st down, and was effective. Then, in 2nd and long when the defense has to protect against the run AND the pass, we were not able to stop the run. I imagine it also shows poor 3rd down efficiency, although I don't have those numbers in front of me.

Perhaps both the final score and our own offensive ineptitude are causing us to lose sight of the fact that MSU was not dominating the score for more of the game. We were a TD away from taking the LEAD for most of the game, and still a TD and field goal away late in the game. Our defense must have been doing something right, and we just didn't realize they were keeping us in the game because our offense couldn't move the ball, especially in the first half.
Erik '04 | Email | Homepage | 09.25.08 - 12:36 pm | #

*most of the game
Erik '04 | Email | Homepage | 09.25.08 - 12:37 pm | #

I think the first down win metric is actually quite good as a gauge for how the defense is doing. The final drive, when Ringer racked up a lot of his yards, we were just trying to strip the ball. Another touchdown came after the 3rd down PI in the endzone, and we threw a pick on our own 20. All this, and MSU still only scored 23. Over the course of the whole game, the defense played quite well and did a pretty good job containing Ringer. This metric illustrates that fact.
cjdomer04 | Email | Homepage | 09.25.08 - 12:44 pm | #

it could be too, that 1st down win rate can't be viewed in a vacuum, and we have to consider the context. (passing vs running oriented team, 1-score game vs blowout, etc)

Kicking butt on 1st down and then slacking off/giving up on 2nd/3rd doesn't help at all.
everloyal | Email | Homepage | 09.25.08 - 1:36 pm | #

Jim read my mind...the fact that there have been 4 games with less than 16 yards rushing speaks volumes.

The game notes also list at least 10 games where ND had under 50 yards rushing. That is one out of every 4 games in the Weis era.

ND's most yards rushing under Weis came under powerhouses Pitt, Navy, Washinton, Stanford, Army, Duke and Air Force.
RedMahoney | Email | Homepage | 09.25.08 - 1:58 pm | #

Pat,

For what it's worth, this article (written by a guy from Football Outsiders) defines two stats that could be helpful to your win rates, Stop Rate and Defeats:

http://views.washingtonpost.com/...acker- most.html

I'm not sure if the numbers for Stop Rate are arbitrary or based on actual data. Oh how I wish I had the time to go back and calculate ND's Stop Rates and Defeats on the season (or at least the time to write a script to do it for me).
Kanka | Email | Homepage | 09.25.08 - 2:15 pm | #

Have to state it again...16 yards was only the fifth worse in the last 3+ seasons? Over a period of 40 games, there are five games where the offense rushed for less than 20 yards? That's insane...even in some of our worst games, we should have 20 yards in a quarter.
ND Alum | Email | Homepage | 09.25.08 - 3:49 pm | #

Great link Kanka. Thanks.

Maybe I'll play around with that during the bye week.
Pat | Email | Homepage | 09.25.08 - 5:08 pm | #

Battle for First Down v. Georgia Tech:

Losses v. the run: 12
Losses v. the pass: 4

Draws v. the run: 3
draws v. the pass: 0

Wins v. the run: 8 (a robust 40% win rate)
Wins v. the pass: 4 (an equally stellar 50% win rate, albeit a small sample size)

What really stuck out for me is how spectacularly Notre Dame lost first down when they lost it:

-22 yard rush
-18 yard rush
-15 yard pass
-31 yard pass
-28 yard pass
-7 yard rush for TD

There were only 2 or 3 "small" losses of the 4-5 yard variety.
The Song of Hiawatha Francisco | Email | Homepage | 09.25.08 - 5:44 pm | #

How are you supposed to run and pass 50/50 when you can't run at all. Doesn't that mean 50% of the offense isn't working?
bs0ng | Email | Homepage | 09.25.08 - 5:47 pm | #