Not a single touchback.....

That, my friends, is very bad / sad.

I heard of an urban legend of some college kickers able to do this. I have been told by some comrades that casually watch games on Saturdays, of other teams' kickers reaching (or getting very close to) the end zone. I haven't seen it for myself, so I can't confirm its existance.

I am contemplating reaching out and calling up Mulder and Scully. There's got to be some truth out there somewhere.
Bubba Du Lac | Email | Homepage | 11.06.09 - 8:28 pm | #

Interesting point regarding ND's relatively high M.O.E. numbers versus the team's impressive #5 national ranking in yards per game. I would guess that while M.O.E. is a good indicator of offensive success on any given night (i.e., ball/clock control, and whether the team actually won), M.O.E. does not necessarily predict total yards very well. ND's had a lot of big pass plays, for instance, that probably made up for offensive mistakes when looking at total yards, but also may not have ultimately resulted in a score due to ND's red zone problems. The big pass play also obviously detracts from the goal of ball control, since it results in the other team getting the ball back sooner whether or not the drive results in a score.

It would be interesting to plot M.O.E. against yards gained for each game of the Weis era and see if there's much of a correlation. It would probably be more useful, however, to compare both M.O.E. and total yards in terms of which one better predicts the outcome of the game.
Ryan | Email | Homepage | 11.06.09 - 9:00 pm | #

I can understand a somewhat higher MOE number due to the fact that the time of possession in the Washington State game was so heavily in our favor.
Grady | Email | Homepage | 11.06.09 - 9:32 pm | #

Regarding the MOE, isn't it obvious to everyone that this is a very sloppy team? I could have told you the MOE was very high without crunching any numbers. It has driven me nuts all season.

This team is far too experienced to make so many mistakes every game. They may still technically be young compared to the BC's of the world, but they have a ton of experience.

I don't know what the problem is, some of our coaches seem to be amazing (looks in the direction of the new hires) while others are lacking. The OL seems to have a lot of drive killing penalties yet I love what Verducci has done so far in other areas (run game).

All that to say, the sloppiness of this team, IMHO, has cost them one game this year and nearly a couple more because it's resulted in field goals when TD's were about to be scored.

Makes me nervous going forward.
Jason | Email | Homepage | 11.06.09 - 10:49 pm | #

Maybe I'm misreading things, but shouldn't the trend arrows for Sacks Allowed for offense and QB Sacks for defense be the opposite of how they currently appear? For instance, isn't 17 sacks this year on defense worse than 27 last year? If it's supposed to reflect rank instead, 53rd this year is still worse than 50th last year.
Justin | Email | Homepage | 11.06.09 - 11:10 pm | #

I find it interesting that the hail Mary TD pass to Golden Tate accounted for over 9% of our total yards. Had that pass dropped incomplete as so many of them do, our "drivin" stat would be 56.4% which takes us from 3rd best of the year (almost 2nd best) to 5th best of the year.
Erik '04 | Email | Homepage | 11.06.09 - 11:25 pm | #

2 losses to teams that aren't going to wind up amounting to a hill of dogpoop (mu & usc) what a sad lost season

and btw the irish suckorz as far as covering the spread

bet your mortgage payment navy covers
brian custer | Email | Homepage | 11.06.09 - 11:43 pm | #

ND SINKS NAVY BY 30
StadiumDudeNamedChip | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 1:46 am | #

I think MOE gives somewhat of an indication. However, a ten yard penalty usually is not as costly as a fumble unless it costs a big play (i.e. see numerous plays vs. UM ) WSJ had an article one time. They figured out that on average an interception costs a team a little over 49 yards so they rounded it off to 50. An interception should be weighted differently than a 5 yard off side penalty. Alford and the boys are exceptional at not coughing up the ball and Clausen is pin point on his targets. Those should count for much more.
GB | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 2:28 am | #

Regarding sacks, I wonder how many more sacks we've taken this year because of Jimmy's injury. He was looking good in the pocket to start the season, but his mobility has been severely hampered and several of those sacks are just him basically falling down b/c of that turf toe. I wouldn't point at that trend as completely the OL's fault.
KyleJones | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 5:20 am | #

Dirty Harry was once asked about his "wounds/kills per shot fired" statistics which were trending in crazy directions depending on whether he was holding the gun with one hand or two, eating a hot dog or not, whether the perp thought he had fired six shots or five, wind speed, etc. He told the interviewer, that when it came to statistics, "a man's got to know their limitations."

I love these stats, I really do. I am always quoting them to family and other ND fans until they shake their heads and walk away. But at the end of the day, crazy stuff happens, and the stats go askew, or are negated. A great example is Jimmy's turf toe as KyleJones points out. Do you want to start factoring that into sack numbers?

They are great at spotting trends. But predictions become a problem. Some outfit runs NFL game predictions based on 10,001 computer simulations *for each* upcoming game based on statistics and modeling. I have never looked at their overall track record, but based on certain single games I am interested in, I am amazed how far off the results of 10,001 simulations can be.

Or it's like Amazon.com stats. Authors and publishers don't (or shouldn't) use those to get an accurate snapshot of how a book is doing, but rather they use them to observe trends over a week, months, 6 months, a year, etc.

That being said, please keep the stats coming, but just know their limitations!
Épée Fencer | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 7:20 am | #

I like the MOE stat, but Ryan and GB got me to thinking about it some more. A fumble/pick turnover has to be weighed differently than a 15-yard penalty, which has to be weighed differently than a 5-yard penalty.

With an explosive pass-oriented offense, how much does a 5-yard penalty really hurt? But with a run-oriented, ball control offense, then what does a five yard penalty mean? Or a 10-yard penalty?

A team having ten MOE events made up of turnovers would fare rather differently than a team suffering ten 5-yard penalties.

Would refinement, based on scaling the relative impact of each negative event, be useful? Or would the occurrence of an average distribution of MOE events suffice? Is there an average distribution of such events?

Alright, Admiral Weis, have Lt. McCarthy, Williams, and KLM prepare to repel boarders -- those pirates of Annapolis are on their way. Fire a Kyle across their bow, and if that doesn't deter 'em, have Captain Clausen give 'em a round of Tate and a barrel-full of Floyd to boot. And a Hughes and Allen ram should blow a big hole in their barnacle-crusted hull.

Go Irish, scuttle the Navy!
Épée Fencer | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 7:37 am | #

no injuries, and a productive day by the steel-collared one.
indy | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 9:30 am | #

Go Fightin' Irish! Beat the Middies.
Joe Subway | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 9:46 am | #

Do penalty yards get subtracted from total yards when looking at the 5th place ranking? If not, then having a team who gets penalties could actually increase your yardage total. For example if you got, say, a personal foul penalty in the red zone, you have 15 more statistical yard to gain on that drive. This would be especially true if it's a red zone penalty.

I'm not sure you have the data for it but it might be interesting to break the field into thirds when looking at MOE. As you get into scoring position penalties would create a larger swing on your team's expected points for the drive.
Joel | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 9:59 am | #

I was just walking around downtown Annapolis and it was pretty rowdy (for Annapolis, anyways).

I love how much old-school class is exhibited for ND vs Navy game.

Go Irish.
DayBreakBoys | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 10:11 am | #

Pat, nice job on this stat (if you created it that's really cool). I imagine it's a much better predictor for a team that plays more consistent defense. However, given our penchant of giving up big pass plays, particularly on 3rd down, it's value is diminished.

A stat I would love to see is the ND defense's win rate on 3rd and long over the past 2-3 years. I'm not sure what the right definition for 3rd and long is, but 3rd and 7 or more feels right.

I SWEAR our win rate in these situations has to be way
Irish Rat | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 10:44 am | #

Battle for 1st Down should be adjusted based on the percentage of 1st down runs versus passes. If I had to make a wild guess, I'd say that WSU passed a lot more on 1st down than they ran; therefore, a single 1st down run "loss" weights more heavily than a corresponding loss on a 1st down pass.

The stat also doesn't account very well in blowout situations one way or the other. When the blowout is on, it becomes much more certain of whether 1st down is either a pass or a run (if the team is ahead in a blowout, they run, if behind, they pass). This creates both the skewing that I noted above and another secondary effect: the defense of the team that is ahead is expecting the pass, so it is more likely that a run play will catch them by surprise and pop a good 1st down gain. It goes the other way, as well: the defense of the trailing team is going to be selling out to stop the run, and is more likely to be beaten by the pass.
PAK'00 | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 10:46 am | #

Hmmmm. the rest of my post got cut off. What I was saying is our win rate in 3rd and long (3rd and 7 or more feels right) HAS to be way < than 50% the last 3 years (even before Tenuta was here). Am I imagining this or have others noticed this? It drives me BONKERS.

Related to MOE, something that is of concern to me is our penchant for laying the ball on the ground lately. We had 2 or 3 fumbles against SC we got back and 4 fumbles against WAZZOU that we recovered. We do that against the Mids, and they're going to recover some of them and we'll be in big trouble. As Jason said, way too sloppy for a veteran team.

I'd love to see us play a complete game and win by a solid 2 TDs, but the realist in me sees ANOTHER close game and ANOTHER 3 years being peeled off my life expectancy.
Irish Rat | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 10:48 am | #

AND I HAVEN'T SEEN ANYONE RUNNING BACK PUNTS ANYMORE...IT'S ALL FAIR CATCH
captain jack | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 11:25 am | #

fair catching the punt can be very important. I also haven't seen so many plays where the ball has hit and then bounced another 20 yards. they've done a good job running up and catching it in a lot of cases.
irishbill | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 11:39 am | #

Weis talked about all the fair catches on punts at a recent press conference. The "spread" punt formation is causing it, and it's a trend across the country. Instead of a gunner on each side, there's a lot of people out wide.
jugmed | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 11:40 am | #

ND's offense hasn't made a lot of gigantic major offensive mistakes (g-moes?) when you consider that they haven't fumbled or thrown many interceptions. the fumble against Michigan, and jc's lateral seem to be the only ones that really cost them. On the other hand, they have had a lot of td's called back and red zone troubles. so, they have moved the ball, but not scored as many points (only 40 once) for a top offense.
irishbill | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 11:43 am | #

Re: Battle For First Down: I'd imagine it means more or less week-to-week depending on our opponents. For example, Wazzu sucks. We could have handed them five yards on every first down (and they would have gladly taken it), but in the end it wouldn't have mattered much because we still would have won by three touchdowns or more.

However, this is a stat that will matter against Navy because their offense simply does not work when they are in situations like 2nd & 9 or 3rd & 7.


To the comments! . . .

Bubba du Lac: Not a single touchback.....

That, my friends, is very bad / sad.

Grr. My patience is thinning with this. Kicking touchbacks is not an easy thing. Most NFL kickers can't even do it consistently.

If kickers were doing it any more than occasionally, they'd move the kickoff line back another five yards.


Erik '04: I find it interesting that the hail Mary TD pass to Golden Tate accounted for over 9% of our total yards. Had that pass dropped incomplete as so many of them do, our "drivin" stat would be 56.4% which takes us from 3rd best of the year (almost 2nd best) to 5th best of the year.

We also were in a position where we didn't need to gain a single yard in the second half. Check out the post for more evidence: we gained 85% of all available yards in the first half but only 62% and change for the whole game, meaning we basically tread water in the second half.


brian custer: 2 losses to teams that aren't going to wind up amounting to a hill of dogpoop (mu & usc) what a sad lost season

and btw the irish suckorz as far as covering the spread

bet your mortgage payment navy covers

Of course ND blows against the spread. It's not a measure of how we "should" perform, but of how many people are betting a certain way. With so many Irish homers putting their thumbs on one end of the scale, it generally means that ND lays more points than they should and thus fails to cover. I've heard it said by semi-professional sports bettors that betting against ND every game would not be a terrible thing to do. I can't bring myself to do it, but I understand the concept.

Also, given your name, your defeatism is perhaps historically coincidental, but that doesn't make it any more welcome.


Irish Rat: our win rate in 3rd and long (3rd and 7 or more feels right) HAS to be way < than 50% the last 3 years (even before Tenuta was here). Am I imagining this or have others noticed this? It drives me BONKERS.

No way. If we were giving up more than half of all third-and-longs, our overall third-down defensive efficiency number would be atrocious. Also, we'd probably lose every game by 20.
INCITEmarsh / Mike Marchand '0 | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 1:17 pm | #

Emergency! Does anyone know how to get to the website with the extra NBC video coverage of the game online? My local NBC station is not going to show the first 1/2 of the game. Thanks.
jugmed | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 2:29 pm | #

jugmed - http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/25889627/
Épée Fencer | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 2:37 pm | #

jugmed -- FoxSports.com and ESPN.com also offer live game tracking
Épée Fencer | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 2:38 pm | #

Where is everyone? At the stadium?
Épée Fencer | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 2:41 pm | #

showing some class cheering for navy...atta baby ND fans
Shaun | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 2:42 pm | #

Yep, Shaun -- good to see.
Épée Fencer | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 2:42 pm | #

good bottle of wine and choppy stream of the gamecast... good night in Italy.
domer03inflorence | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 2:43 pm | #

I just drove 4 hours in a snowstorm to get to a TV to watch this... GO ND!!
Irish Canadian | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 2:44 pm | #

its going to be nice to see how good Golden will be when not double and triple covered...so nice to have Floyd back
Shaun | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 2:44 pm | #

New window for the chat open.
Épée Fencer | Email | Homepage | 11.07.09 - 2:44 pm | #

Outlined by a warm, sunny, November day the 3 Stooges came out to play:
To most they are know as Moe, Larry and Curley. However to loyal Irish fans they are simply Charlie Weis, Corwin Brown and Randy Hart. Like the slapstick of decades ago, these 3 stooges are able to pull laughter and jeers from the faces of Notre Dame fans and opposing offenses alike. Their ineptitude on the sidelines has allowed offenses with borderline talent to rack up points faster than Weis can down a dozen Krispy Kreme doughnuts.
As though in the golden days of vaudeville they plan their routine with care and attention to detail. They take the stage to an onslaught of cheers from anxious fans craving the entertainment quality that only the stooges of Notre Dame can provide on a fall Saturday afternoon. They are not soon disappointed as the stooges commit blunder after blunder much to the delight of visiting teams.
On this Saturday afternoon they were in rare form allowing NAVY (an offense that struggled in the week prior to score against the powerful defense of TEMPLE) to run the field at their leisure in handing the Irish of Notre Dame their 3rd loss of the season 23 to 21.
The Stooges next home performance will take place on Saturday November 21st at 2:30 pm against
UCONN. There will be a $2,000.00 cover and a 12 drink minimum.
Knute Holtz | Email | Homepage | 11.08.09 - 11:59 pm | #