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A merging of the left of centre is inevitable. This does not necessarily mean a merger of the NDP and LPC; it could take place as a leaching of support from the NDP to the LPC, as voters come to realize just how extreme – in Canadian terms – the New Tory party under Harper is.
The New Tories are not at all a merger of the old Alliance/Reform party with the old Progressive Conservatives. It is a party which resulted from a takeover of the PCs by the Reform/Alliance party, aided by the sellout of the PC leader. As a result the policies and value systems of the New Tories are solidly rightwing Alliance/Reform ones. Most voters do not appreciate that yet, but policies do become laws and programs, and the results will be apparent to all within months.
The NDP is probably doomed to shrink substantially on the federal scene once the LPC has a new leader, and has finished a review of its own policies. I expect the LPC to move leftwards from Martin's amorphous Tory-like policies, and to have a harder edged demarcation of its policies as compared to the New Tories.
Layton asked voters to lend him their votes. Some did, and Harper took power as a result. Now progressive voters will consider the impact of a rightwing neocon government under Harper brought into power and propped up by Layton's colossal blunder, and lend their votes for mainstream Canadian values, by voting for a reinvigorated Liberal government.
Layton will then become another footnote on the Canadian political landscape, along with others who gambled and lost, such as Joe Clark.
I agree with you that the NDP will see a loss of votes in the next election especially if the Liberal party swings more center left as I anticipate they will in many aspects. However who ever takes over leadership will have to also capture the soft center right vote that went to Harper last time around to have a shot at government.
Cat what are you smoking.
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