3.5m peaking at 4.2m yesterday. Just checked the BARB figures, Saturdays are rating *much better* now it's on later - 3.45m for the Saturday before last.
Brig Bother | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 12:23 pm | #

DOND ebay watch is rather entertaining. Homemade mousemats and mugs among the junk in there alongside audience tickets and the mystical £250,000 box. Ironically there's no picture for the big red box.
NJ | 02.09.06 - 2:41 pm | #

No surprise to see the Saturday show storming back now that there's no football clash to contend with.

3.9m peaking at 4.7m from Tuesday was sensational though. I wonder if there's any correlation in the ratings (most likely the peak ratings) and the amount up for grabs (the peak offer would be more relevant than the prize won here, I think) - to see if people are tuning in mid-episode if it looks like it's going to be a big-money corker of a show, something that was certainly true of Tuesday's show. Mind you, it was also true of yesterday's.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 3:48 pm | #

Keep up the excellent work with the commentary boys!
Gerry in Inverness | 02.09.06 - 4:11 pm | #

TORYDEEDS becomes DESTROYED, and I'm waiting for the Mail to complain about left-wing bias on Channel 4.

Paul Howe gets it to complete win number five, another century to boot.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:16 pm | #

Talking of Tories, I'm reading Boris Johnson's blog (I disagree with what he says, but love the way he says it) and Carol Thatcher's coming tomorrow.

But that was the Parlour Game Warmup and we're not here for that.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:17 pm | #

Continuity announcer makes the mindblowingly stupid, but still amazingly common, mistake of dubbing DoND a 'quiz show' rather than a 'game show'.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:18 pm | #

I'm here to either do stats or commentary, depending on KP's mood.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:20 pm | #

'Time to box clever'.

The game that's so simple even the idiots who cut across all lanes of traffic on the motorway can win big on it. But there's judgment as well as luck, and that's why we're here every day.

Noel is once again wishing everyone good luck, as he did yesterday.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:20 pm | #

I'll do the commentary, I do tend to enjoy that and it's nice to switch roles as I'm normally doing stats for LJ.

'This show ticks all the boxes'.

And 'the money moment has come' for BRENDA.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:21 pm | #

Noel does the 'ticks all the boxes, and there are twenty two of them' gag again in the pre-player selection stuff.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:21 pm | #

She's got Box 11, which Noel places very carefully.

And she has a leprechaun.

Dublin-born but now lives in Newcastle. She's got some medical background, didn't catch the details. She was born on November 11. Spooky.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:22 pm | #

Brenda has a small Leprichaun with her. Now, will that be wishing away the 1p and 10p fast and £250k into her box?

One of her lucky numbers is her box, number eleven, as well, which is somewhat interesting.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:23 pm | #

She doesn't have a strategy for box-opening. Fair enough.

We start with Sam and Box 16 - 50p, yay!
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:23 pm | #

Box 10 (Okiem the Oak): 10p! Sensational.
Box 6 (Norma): £5,000. Won't do harm in isolation.
Box 15 (Paula): £500! We're rolling now.
Box 20 (Russell): £3,000. And the last box doesn't ruin the round as it often does.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:25 pm | #

I'd personally be offering £5,000 here.

The Banker, who considers Brenda 'the enigma' and himself as 'the code-breaker', offers £7,500. Woo.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:26 pm | #

Well, visually that pretty much decimates the six boxes in the upper part of the board.

Mean is £32,774.47
Median is £1000
Absolute Balance +16
Significant Balance is 11/17; +4
FD is £13,334.33
Volatility at 0.81

The offer of £7,500 is high, but this is a very good board.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:26 pm | #

At her audition in Carlise Geordie Brenda had to play charades. She reached into the bag with the slips of paper describing what she had to act out.

As she was reading it... I shouted out "SUPERGRAN".... which was the first thing she reminded me of when we met again in Bristol.

I hope she wins a fortune today!
Gerry in Inverness | 02.09.06 - 4:26 pm | #

'You're not going to walk at £7,500, are you?'

It's a nice opening offer but it's certainly not walking money. Yet. Two more rounds like that and we'll be in life-changing money though. No Deal. Noel thought she was going.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:27 pm | #

She plays with Noel sufficiently to make him think she was going to say 'deal'. Rather amusing.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:27 pm | #

Box 8 (Peter): 1p! Dear hell. She's guaranteed £1 and she was shocked.
Box 22 (BOOYEAH, Donna): £5! This has to be the best start ever now. 'Bit of advice - keep breathing.'
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:28 pm | #

"Bit of advice - keep breathing"

Slightly worrying break link of pouring positivity into the box.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:29 pm | #

1p goes. I've got a horrible feeling this next one'll be a big 'un.

£5! I stand corrected. Fantastic start so far.

And onto the break.
Billy | 02.09.06 - 4:30 pm | #

Box 4 (Germaine): He's asked to 'pour positivity' into the box during the break.

Not that it's needed. 'This is the best we have had for a very long time!' enthuses Noel. That's almost an understatement on this board.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:30 pm | #

Savour this board, we won't get a better one than this for weeks at the first break:

£1, £10, £50, £100, £250, £750
£1k, £10k, £15k, £20k, £35k, £50k, £75k, £100k, £250k
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:31 pm | #

Thanks for the commentary, folks. I'm following from work but I feel compelled to calculate the chance of keeping ALL of the five- and six-figure amounts until the first break: it's just 2.0%
Mister Al | 02.09.06 - 4:32 pm | #

At the first break -

Mean: £37,144.07
Median £10,000 (yes)
Absolute Balance +34 (outstandingly good)
Significant Balance 11/15; +7 (Dear hell this is awsomely high)
FD at £17,086.47
Volatility is 0.81

If the £1 goes, I think that will be the fastest the bottom five have been taken out.

If the £250,000 goes, the stats will still be quite nice.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:33 pm | #

Ryanair caught napping apparently, but the luck of the Irish is smiling on Brenda.

Germaine is still pouring in positivity...

...and reveals... £250! Oh dear hell.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:34 pm | #

This has to be a record-breaking offer. I wouldn't blame him if he went above £20k here.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:35 pm | #

The offer...

...isn't a record. £15,000 equals the old record. Definite No Deal here.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:36 pm | #

That ups the stats somewhat...

Mean to £39,779.36
Median to £12,500
FD to £19,299.50

The offer of £15,000 is... Quite strong, I think. At least, for this stage of the game. Still, on this board, I think that's a No Deal.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:37 pm | #

Chance of keeping ALL of the five- and six-figure amounts until the deal-of-fourteen offer: 0.9%
Mister Al | 02.09.06 - 4:37 pm | #

He's repeated the first two offers from Angela's game. The difference is that Angela had an ordinary board and Brenda doesn't.

No Deal.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:37 pm | #

Best game ever?
David B | 02.09.06 - 4:38 pm | #

...I'm not sure if that was real thinking or pretend thinking...
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:38 pm | #

It is now!
David B | 02.09.06 - 4:39 pm | #

After the first box in this round, the Absolute Balance was at 42. Just thought I'd throw that in there.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:39 pm | #

Box 9 (Gary): £50! My jaw is dropping further.
Box 3 (Paul) £1! Um... and we were saying this game was fixed against the players??? The crowd are going crazy. As well they might.

This is the only situation in which I'd even dare to consider a £250k win. That means she'll hit the big one now.

Box 18 (Gassy Fin): £1,000! Even when she hits a red, it's the anti-red.

Anything below £25k is a joke on this board.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:39 pm | #

My god, it gets better! £50!

We're about due a disaster. Will it lurk in Box 3?

No! £1! This is just incredible.

Surely, SURELY a massive one's going to go here.

£1,000. Wow.
Billy | 02.09.06 - 4:40 pm | #

Mean is at £50,532.73 (!!!)
Median is at £20,000 (!!)
Absolute Balance is at 49 (!)
Significant Balance is at 1; +9 (!!!)
FD is at £29,998.96
Volatility is at a mere 0.82

This offer is going to be through the roof, surely.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:41 pm | #

This board is so strong I'm suspicious.

The offer has to be life-changing.

£31k is a record third offer but it's only just above the FD. The only argument for walking now is 'that's my life-changing sum of money, job done'.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:42 pm | #

The perfect board at this stage (eleven reds and no blues) has a FD of £33,781.78.

...we're not far off that :O
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:42 pm | #

It's inevitable she'll knock out big ones this round.
Alex | 02.09.06 - 4:43 pm | #

£31,000. Suprisingly (given the size of the offer) it's only about a grand above the FD. I'd probably No Deal that. But, I'd be tempted not to simply because of the monetary value of the offer and how quickly this game can turn around.

As Peter puts it - "You've got a rediculously strong board here"
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:43 pm | #

Chance of keeping ALL of the five- and six-figure amounts until the deal-of-eleven offer: 0.05% (precisely 1 in 1938)

We won't expect to see a halfway board as strong as this again for another 8 years. (Why did I have to be at work today...?)
Mister Al | 02.09.06 - 4:43 pm | #

Christ, this is tough. Hitting any of the top three is likely to damage the deal.
David B | 02.09.06 - 4:43 pm | #

Whatever you think of the board, you've got to say this is a case of 'is £31k life-changing money?'

She... goes on. Yay.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:43 pm | #

Alex - I think you're forgetting that on this board, £35,000 can be considered low.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:44 pm | #

Anyone sweating?
David B | 02.09.06 - 4:45 pm | #

Feels like the game Marie had....
Gerry in Inverness | 02.09.06 - 4:45 pm | #

She's won £750! Amazing!
David B | 02.09.06 - 4:45 pm | #

Noel says we're one good round away from life-changing money.

Box 2 (Helen): £100! Um... this isn't happening.
Box 12 (Chris): 'There is an inevitability about hitting a big number'... NO THERE ISN'T! £10!!

There is now a one-in-nine chance of the dream round-of-eight board. The crowd is the loudest I've ever heard on UK television.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:46 pm | #

Holy crap!
DJC | 02.09.06 - 4:46 pm | #

The significant Balance reaches 11/9; +11. That +11 is as high as it can possably get.

The crowd, understandably, goes absoltuely wild.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:46 pm | #

Break time.

On this board, if my theory about ratings is true, we've got to be looking at 5m upwards, surely?
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:47 pm | #

This is incredible, I feel Anna may have one of the biggest 3 though.
Alex | 02.09.06 - 4:47 pm | #

Interesting that the volatility is 0.82 which doesn't strike me as particularly low.
David B | 02.09.06 - 4:47 pm | #

I know I've said this a million times before today, but I really, really have bad feelings about this round.

£100. Erm...

£10. FDKGdfkgkdfkkkkdk!!111!

Translation: Wow.

And it's a break. Oh god, if this is the £750...
Billy | 02.09.06 - 4:47 pm | #

On a Round of Eight board, 0.82 volatility is ridiculously low.

And it'll only be 1.22 if the £100k goes...
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:49 pm | #

Will this be enough to appease the statisticians, tho?

Quote me happy!
David B | 02.09.06 - 4:49 pm | #

At the second break, the stats are... Well... As ludicrous as the board looks.

Mean is at £61,750
Median is at £35,000 (has it ever been that high in active play?)
Absolute Balance is at 59
Significant Balance, as I just mentioned, is at 11/9; +11
FD is at £44,196.22

£35k being eliminated would increase the FD. That means that this board is stupidly strong, and that there's a 5/9 chance of upping the FD even further before this offer.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:49 pm | #

I'm waiting for the reverse of this board - 1p, 10p, 50p, £1, £5, £10, £50, £100, £1k.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:50 pm | #

Is this just one big wind-up? Are you guys having me on? I'm finding this difficult to believe what I'm reading here.

Chance of keeping ALL of the five- and six-figure amounts until the second break offer: 0.003% (precisely 1 in 35530)

Expected time before we see a board as good as this again: approximately 150 years.
Mister Al | 02.09.06 - 4:50 pm | #

David - if anything a board this strong is going to make the staticians get extremely suspicious.

She can't have £750, though, surely?
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:51 pm | #

Don't forget that Marie hit the £250k with the last box before the fourth offer.

The Madeleys get their biggest audience ever. And we're back.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:51 pm | #

Mister Al - I'm not sure if I believe what I'm watching here.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:51 pm | #

"We don't see this very often" - Noel makes the understatement of the centry.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:52 pm | #

We're back. I haven't been this excited at a gameshow since Who Wants to be a Millionaire in 1999.

Someone should screencap that board for posterity. In Box 14 is...

£20,000! It's Ok!!!
Billy | 02.09.06 - 4:52 pm | #

Box 14 (Anna): Noel says anything outside the Power Five is fine.

...£20,000! Not the perfect final eight, but it might as well be.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:52 pm | #

(I meant second break, not second break offer. Forgive me, I'm getting over-excited here...)
Mister Al | 02.09.06 - 4:52 pm | #

WOOHOO!!1!1
David B | 02.09.06 - 4:52 pm | #

He's talking to Brenda.

I'd offer £54.5k here, which would be the second biggest prize won in the show's history if she took it.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:53 pm | #

Mean raises to £66,968.75
Median raises to £42,500
Absolute Balance drops to 53
Significant Balance drops to 5/4; +10
FD raises to £47,886.53
Volatility raises to 0.87

The Banker appologieses... Wow.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:54 pm | #

Are the heartbeats over the music new?
David B | 02.09.06 - 4:54 pm | #

I bet she's got the £750.
Brig Bother | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:54 pm | #

Noel talks about the trap.

He probably can't believe this.

£57,000! And to be honest, it had to be.

If she takes this, she's second to Jennifer's £120k.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:55 pm | #

I'd deal that. I'd only be disappointed with that if I had the £250k.
David B | 02.09.06 - 4:55 pm | #

£57,000 offer.

It sounds huge. It looks huge. But... I'm not sure if it's worth taking on this board or not...
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:55 pm | #

We could be left with Jennifer's £750/£250k decision here. That would be insane.

Peter warns her that a joke offer would come if she hit the big one, and reminds us that UK game show wins are tax-free.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:56 pm | #

I want her to carry on here, but I can't think anybody would blame her for taking £57k.
Mister Al | 02.09.06 - 4:56 pm | #

David - no, they've been there for a while now.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:56 pm | #

I'm agreeing with David B here.

Also: Incredible Games wasn't hosted by Bloody Mark Bloody Speight!
Brig Bother | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:56 pm | #

In real terms, this offer is higher than the record-breaking $132k won on Wheel of Fortune on Monday night. Assuming that $132k is taxed at 40% or so, as I think it is.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:57 pm | #

DEAL. She doesn't care if she has the quarter-million, it's job done for her.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:57 pm | #

Deal, but the way she said it I'm not sure she knew what she was going to do before it left her mouth.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:57 pm | #

Good deal. That's a good pay day in anyone's book.
David B | 02.09.06 - 4:57 pm | #

You could tell she was going to deal because there's not enough time left to play the game properly!
Anonymous | 02.09.06 - 4:58 pm | #

How is Brenda coping with all this? I'm pretty hyper and I'm just reading a commentary on a screen. I can only imagine what kinds of emotions she must be feeling...
Mister Al | 02.09.06 - 4:58 pm | #

Box 21 (Mike): £15,000.

One in 56 chance of the dream five lives...

...not now. There goes £100k. Noel says that would only have been disastrous if the quarter-million went.

Box 19 (John): £750! No!
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:59 pm | #

Hmmmm....
David B | 02.09.06 - 4:59 pm | #

I'd have offered £75k here, I think.

The hypothetical offer...

...is £84,000. Right on the mean.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 4:59 pm | #

It's a Deal. Good move, I say - I think some big numbers will go in this round. Then again, I've been wrong throughout the show...

£15,000. Looks like I am again.

£100,000! Hang on, though. That's a start.

£750. Wrong again.

£84,000 offer.
Billy | 02.09.06 - 5:00 pm | #

The offer has to be above £70k here, surely?

Mean £84,000 is the offer.
Median of £50,000
Absolute Balance is 39
Sig Balance is 7/5; +7
FD is £66,002.85
Volatility is 1.47

And the quarter million goes, thank goodness.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:00 pm | #

Box 7 (Benita) - £250,000!

64...

Box 17 (Traci): £35,000
Box 1 (Daz): £75,000! TPW.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:01 pm | #

£21k hypothetical offer, a joke with that final two but he would have done that in active play no doubt.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:01 pm | #

On any other day those final two would be spectacular. The offer of £21k is about right, maybe a bit on the low side though.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:01 pm | #

What two were left, chaps?

Sorry, joined in half way thorough and didn't have my scoreboard in front of me.
Brig Bother | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:02 pm | #

She had £50k. 'Oh sugary'.

She still beat her box. '£57k is fabulous.'

Selling £50k for £57k sounds like a property deal in the mid-90s, doesn't it?
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:02 pm | #

£250,000, £35,000, and £75,000. There we go.

£21,000 offer...and £50,000's in her box. Still a £7,000 gain, though!

Absolutely incredible show. Definitely one of the best ever.
Billy | 02.09.06 - 5:02 pm | #

10k and 50k, she had 50k
Alex | 02.09.06 - 5:03 pm | #

Oh. And it's a red to appease the statisticians!

I don't think this is the greatest catchphrase to be honest.
Brig Bother | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:03 pm | #

The pocket change bit.

Box 3 - £1,000 for Peggy Mitchell from Bolton.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:03 pm | #

Thanks very much everyone!
Brig Bother | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:03 pm | #

Incidently, it's still the case that all wins above £27,500 have been on Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays (and all above £50k have been on Thursdays and Fridays)

Noel thinks we've been due a game like that for quite a while. I disagree, based on Mister Al's 150 year assessment.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:04 pm | #

In a surreal end, Peggy Mitchell from EastEnders wins £1,000. I'll be watching tonight's episode with interest.
Billy | 02.09.06 - 5:04 pm | #

Summary:

Box value: £50,000
Peak offer: £84,000
Prize won: £57,000
Result: Technical Player Win, 68-32

I'm still in shock.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:04 pm | #

In a surreal end, Peggy Mitchell from EastEnders wins £1,000.

After this game, I'm almost ready to believe that.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:05 pm | #

That sounds like a web entry to me! Is that really what it said?
Brig Bother | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:06 pm | #

...and paradoxically that pretty much confirms to me that the quarter-million will never be won.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:06 pm | #

Surely the most exciting episode of DoND ever, surely, surely, surely?
Tom H | 02.09.06 - 5:07 pm | #

Oh, no, it just flashed up 'Peggy Mitchell, Bolton' like it does for every Legalised Telephone Lottery win.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:07 pm | #

And no, incidentally, Peggy was from Bolton.
Tom H | 02.09.06 - 5:07 pm | #

Watch out for ridiculous viewing figures tomorrow.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:07 pm | #

Ah right, sorry. I assumed it said "PEGGY MITCHELL, Eastenders" from the way you were saying!

I think the £250,000 can and will be won, but funnily enough it will happen on a board which starts off quite weak and becomes strong, rather than being strong from the off.
Brig Bother | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:08 pm | #

Peak offer £84,000
Amount won £57,000
Box amount £50,000

That's a 68-32 TPW
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:10 pm | #

On condition that at least one big safety net stays all the way through to make gambling worth considering, I think I'll agree with that. I'm thinking of Arlette's game as a good example here - a merely ordinary start, but both six-figure values survived to the final eight.

That, or the Banker does what he did to Garvan.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:12 pm | #

To say the top prize absolutely won't go just isn't fair - it's been and gone several times in the French show, and that's an even bigger one!
Brig Bother | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:15 pm | #

But €500k isn't much more than £250k, and it's actually less if, as in Italy, it's taxed (do they tax game show winnings in France?).

And they have two big safety nets - €250k, and the joker (usually €220k). The £250k on our version is really quite isolated.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:19 pm | #

That was something special, I can only hope that More4 is working on my Sky box as I have to see this for myself.
NJ | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:34 pm | #

The Joker on the French version can be any amount it depends on the number of correct answers. One episode I've recently seen only had the Joker at £130,000 (13 correct).
Travis P | 02.09.06 - 5:44 pm | #

LOL £3,000 win on You Say We Pay!
Travis P | 02.09.06 - 5:45 pm | #

...nine people got a Joker wrong once? I always thought nearly everyone got the Joker question right.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 5:46 pm | #

Re - ebay auction.

I wonder if that auction would actually went for a hight amount, if he added an audience wristband?(provided they still issue them).
Travis P | 02.09.06 - 5:49 pm | #

Parish notices first. Lisa, the new player (right side, ninth from the board) opened the final box. Lucy opened the £100,000. I won't be live-commenting for the next two Saturdays, but will put up an after-the-game recap the following day.

17 -- £4100 -- £9600 -- £19,000
Offer £7500, 46th percentile.
Another very strong opening results in a near-median offer.

14 -- £7100 -- £16,000 -- £26,000
Offer £15,000, 49th percentile.
Following the protocol the bank's established over the last few days. It's a bit like the West Indies' tactics when rain's in the air - play the normal game, and pray for rain.

11 -- £15,000 -- £26,000 -- £42,000
Offer £31,000, 58th percentile.
"Calm down, dear, it's only a game show." We're in uncharted territory here. To spike the cricket analogy, the weather is set fair for the rest of the day. The top eight remain. We are guaranteed two values in five figures or more at the deal-of-5. KP was right that the only reason to walk would be a player whose utility curve took a massive step up at £30,000. On a normal board, mine says to deal at £28,000. But no.

08 -- £30,000 -- £43,000 -- £62,000
Offer £57,000, 61st percentile.
We've reached the point where it's a gamble to play on. Take out the big one and two of the bottom three and she'll get a bit more. Leave the big one and she'll go up, unless she takes out two of the top four.

05 -- £33,000 -- £57,000 -- £76,000
Offer £84,000, 70th percentile.
Wow. Reverting to the mean, a sign of sheer panic and desperation.

£21,000 for a 10/50 split is very mean.

Well, what can we conclude from this game? Brenda was right not to deal at £7500. And, when faced with a once-in-a-blue-moon scenario, the bank has no idea what to do. Does the bank know what to do in a once-a-year scenario? Even a once-in-two-months game?

For those who asked, the board going into Act III is up on my humble site.
Weaver | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 7:09 pm | #

I actually double checked that to make sure it hadn't collapsed early. We ain't seeing that again for a while that's a sure thing.
NJ | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 7:35 pm | #

Wow, what a game. I was literally screaming with delight watching the More 4 repeat and also frantically trying to work out the odds during the second break (but only had a pen and paper and no calculator handy).

I knew it would be posted on here though.

I thought that Peter's comment about working out how much £57,000 would be worth as post-taxed wages was one of the best pieces of advice I've heard. Equating that amount of money with about 4-5 years worth of wages (I think Peter said it was worth £70-£80K pre-tax and I'm guessing as a GP receptions she's on about £15K a year).
Simon | 02.09.06 - 8:58 pm | #

I think he implied £90k, can't remember now.

Either way that is a giant win, and she probably did what I would have done.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 9:39 pm | #

It would be £90K if you wanted to take £57K away in one year.

Working for the NHS myself, I have a fair idea of the kind of wages receptionists would get (I'm a clerical office) and it would be just about 5 years take-home wages for a full time worker.
Simon | 02.09.06 - 10:23 pm | #

> Noel thinks we've been due a game like that for quite a while. I disagree, based on Mister Al's 150 year assessment.

Well, I based that on 230 shows per year (since the current commission is for 230 shows). Having thought about it a little more I think that it's more realistic to assume 300 shows per year, which would mean we'd expect to see it once every 118 years.

Mind you, I'd still describe 118 years as "quite a while"...
Mister Al | 02.09.06 - 10:27 pm | #

Amidst all the fuss, it's worth noting that this is the second biggest win in DoND history, £3k more than Mally's £54k but still less than half of Jennifer's £120k.
KP | Homepage | 02.09.06 - 11:13 pm | #

Peter made an interesting point, yes. Could someone who knows more about British tax law than me equate each valued box into how high a year's sallery would be to produce that amount after tax?
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.10.06 - 7:52 am | #

Tax rates vary, up to 40%. But there are other taxes, National Insurance. This is 9 or 10% (can't remember whether there is a cap on NI - long time since earnt more than basic wage!)

General Rule think 25% up to 20k, 30% up to 35k, 35-40% or more above that
SteveW | 02.10.06 - 10:07 am | #

The other thing I've just realised...

The five values Brenda finished with were the same five that Irene removed in her first round of her train wreck game.

SPOOKY.
KP | 02.10.06 - 2:28 pm | #