Watch out for the new late start for the showing of DOND Thursday onwards - 5.15pm. Dunno if it is Christmas tine only!
SD | 12.18.05 - 11:01 pm | #

Yes - back to normal in the new year I gather.
Brig Bother | Homepage | 12.18.05 - 11:14 pm | #

So, DoND directly competes with Link for a short while. Should be interesting.
Gizensha | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 2:46 am | #

I expect a huge win for DoND over Link, and from there the next step is going primetime.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 2:05 pm | #

Not that I'll be able to watch most of this one as I have to leave early to go to the presentation of A level certificates.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 3:07 pm | #

I will, however, be able to commentate on the opening half of the show.

Easy 109-60 win for Maria on Countdown today btw, five in a row.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:17 pm | #

I'll try and do some commentary.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:18 pm | #

If anyone likes, I can do commentary on DoND USA tonight here (although it'll probably be the only night I can do it)....5 hour time difference, so it would be about 1AM in the UK...
David | 12.19.05 - 4:20 pm | #

And the theme choon, saved only by THAT bassline and certainly ruined by THOSE bells, rings around the Bristol Underground Club.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:20 pm | #

That would be great David - even if I will be asleep. Damn, I want to be nocturnal now.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:21 pm | #

And it's Karen! At last.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:21 pm | #

Today's player is Karen at last. Let's hope she has some luck today.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:21 pm | #

Today is the day that she wants a big value in her box.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:22 pm | #

Karen is a flight attendant, which evidently Noel guessed from her walk. She's from Beckenham in Kent. She says she feels lucky, thanks to her big circle of friends and good health, but says she goes looking for luck rather than being a magnet for it.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:23 pm | #

Thought it'd be Karen today. Let's see how she does!
Billy | 12.19.05 - 4:23 pm | #

Is it me or does it seem a long time before boxes are being opened today?
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:24 pm | #

'How are you going to go for it?' asks Noel. She's not a spiritualist and 'can only control the boxes I pick' rather than her contents.

She wants to become a pilot and should she win enough she wants to spend it on training. Well, Glenn Hugill surely has no idea how much pilot training costs, so no guide of an exit fee here.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:24 pm | #

A little while longer than normal, because Noel clearly has decided to talk a lot to Karen because he thinks her interesting.

She starts at the top, Box 22 with 'Mad Max'. He 'can't remember' what he did Sunday. Maybe this wasn't recorded on Sunday. £100,000!
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:25 pm | #

Box 22 (Max) £100,000

Noel reminds Karen of Audrey's disaster last week.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:26 pm | #

Noel is already reminding Karen of the Audrey start.

Box 11 with 'Sir Bobby'. He suggests 50p. £35,000! Yuk.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:26 pm | #

Box 11 (£35,000)
Box 7 (Louise) £50
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:27 pm | #

FD has already tumbled to £6,469.15 as Karen calls on Box 7 with Louise.

£50. That'll do.

Box 5 - Jenny - 'Please - we need another low number'. And get it. £1.

FD has recovered to £7,906.66.

Box 10 - Jenna, who could pass for a primetime version model. £50,000. 'I didn't want that to happen.'

This'll be a train wreck, won't it?
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:28 pm | #

Box 5 (Jenny) £1
Box 10 (Jenna) £50,000

FD is £6,560 after taking 3 of the highest 5.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:28 pm | #

It's already a 2 box show after the first round.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:28 pm | #

Karen admits it's a bad board and downplays the role of the £250k. That'll mean a joke offer.

FD is £6,560.45. Median is £750. Mean is £22,389.15 - down over £3k from the starting value.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:28 pm | #

'An opening offer to be reckoned with' because he's afraid of Karen's blatant honesty.

£2,700! That's almost worth taking on this board.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:30 pm | #

£2,700 for first offer. Not that much of a joke.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:30 pm | #

No Deal.

FD could tumble to barely £1k in three boxes. But it probably won't.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:30 pm | #

Michael (Box 6) £20,000

Next box £75,000 - missed box number

Looks like Karen's bad luck is finding her when she didn't need it the most.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:32 pm | #

Box 6. Michael. There's plenty of blues to hit, and Noel is pleading. £20,000. 'You seem completely and utterly mesmerised by red numbers'.
Box 2. Jill. 'Mustn't be the quarter of a million or the £75,000.' £75,000!

Karen can't believe it and roars with laughter. I can't believe it and if I didn't like Karen I'd roar with laughter too. But I do like her.

Could she have £250k all along? Wouldn't surprise me.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:32 pm | #

Box 9 (Michael) .. break time
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:32 pm | #

'Do not break the seal. Did I say break?' This is getting boring now.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:33 pm | #

FD will be - get this - £1,087.40 if the £250k goes.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:36 pm | #

Welcome back to Karen's episode of 'serious engine failure'. We're 'down to one engine'. I wonder if that'll draw any complaints?

Box 9 has to be low. And is. £100.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:38 pm | #

Is this a total train wreck......

Box 9 has £100.... Phew
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:38 pm | #

FD is now £4,620.70. Median is £625 and the mean is £20,393.97.

Nobody's had the top six gone at halfway (Helen was closest, taking out the top five in eight boxes). If Helen takes out the £250k in the next three, she'll manage that unwelcome first.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:39 pm | #

Karen says this now a worse board. Realises she has to lower her expectations.

Karen's attitude impresses the banker but not enough to offer her £900.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:40 pm | #

The offer is going to be a joke. But I said that last time.

With the state of the board, 'you are not going to fulfil your pilot's dream' he says; this incenses Noel. The offer is £900, 'so you can go ballooning'.

We're going to cut to the No Deal, as Karen is a 'very practical person'.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:40 pm | #

Karen doesn't want to timewaste by taking advice and its NO DEAL.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:40 pm | #

'Quite simply, this is the £250k game.'

Andy (not the Y-Factor contestant) opens Box 4 to unveil... £500.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:41 pm | #

Box 3. Mary-Ann. £10,000. Whee. 'Who clapped?'. Max, because it wasn't £250k.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:42 pm | #

Box 4 (Andy) £500
Box 3 (Mary Ann) £10,000
Box 17 (Chris) £250
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:42 pm | #

Box 17. Chris.

£250. 'Lost three noughts off it and we can all breathe again.'
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:43 pm | #

Banker offers £6,600 above FD of £5,469.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:43 pm | #

No longer an unmitigated disaster. FD is up to, um, £5,469.11.

Offer is 'very interesting'. £6,600 is above the FD. 3/11 chance of a disaster, 8/11 chance of an improved offer. It's that simple.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:43 pm | #

£6,600 would allow her to take six months' maternity leave but not to fulfil her piloting dreams. No Deal. Ouch.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:44 pm | #

NO DEAL. Hope she doesn't regret that.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:44 pm | #

This black and white game, as Noel calls it, continues with Box 8 - Terry. £5k.

And I now have to go.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:45 pm | #

Box 8 (Terry) £5,000

Box 1 (Simon) £5
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:46 pm | #

Box 13 - Crucial box - Noel gets everyone to join hands for positivity.

Dave opens 10p !!!!!!!!!!

Karen gives him a big kiss.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:47 pm | #

Ooh, I leave you by saying this has to be a Deal. 37.5% chance of a simple disaster is a Deal no matter what.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 4:47 pm | #

FD is now £8,561.45
Mean of £33,720
Median of £875.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:48 pm | #

With a 3/8 chance of disaster in next round, this could be a crucial offer.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:49 pm | #

Noel asks if he put the phone down to hard and hopes he didn't "break" it.

Break time is it then.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:49 pm | #

I reckon this could be close to a £10K offer and like KP I agree that she has to deal at this stage.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:51 pm | #

Richard and Judy signify it's time to find out the crucial offer.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:53 pm | #

Noel says £12K, £13k, £14K, £15K, £16K is a lot of money.

As is the offer of £17,000.

No-brainer here - she has to deal surely.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:55 pm | #

Offer above 7 out of the 8 boxes.

Karen believes she won't take out the £250,000. She thinks the £250,000 is out there and not in her box.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:56 pm | #

She would choose boxes 12,14,16 next round if she no-dealed as she believes £250K is in boxes 18,19,20 or 21.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:57 pm | #

DEAL!!!!!!

Thank goodness.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:57 pm | #

Box 12,14,16 opened

Box 12 (£750)
Box 14 (£1,000)

FD into 5 figures now - £12,890.43

Box 16 (£3,000)

FD would have been £15,697,28 with an offer of £55,000.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 4:59 pm | #

Final 3 boxes of prove-out

Box 20 (£250,000) - Julie the new girl.

Box 21 (50p)

Box 19 1p

Would have left a £1 / £15K decision with an offer of £7K.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 5:01 pm | #

Karen kept last box 18 as she thought Angela was a hot-spot.

Karen's box 15 contained £15,000K.

A good result. In the end, dealt a deal to soon but a 37.5% chance of disaster was too much too risk.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 5:03 pm | #

Hope I've given enough info for the rest of the regulars to analyse post-game.

Pointless bit - £1,000 goes to Sandra Bovoal of Fleetwood.
Simon | 12.19.05 - 5:04 pm | #

That was a weird ending. Audience were deadly silent when the £15k was revealed, even though that was a Good Thing, and the contestants walked really slowly up to Karen at the end. Everyone seemed to be lacking energy, really.

On another note, why DO females keep winning the Viewers Competition?
Billy | 12.19.05 - 5:06 pm | #

A technical Banker win (69-31) but only just...the player was good to get away with anything at all today, but if she had waited, she could have gotten a OPW...2427-1873 Banker overall...
David | 12.19.05 - 5:13 pm | #

I'd suggest females keep winning the viewer competition because gameshows, apparantly, are an example of 'female-friendly' television. (which the majority of British tv is, it should be noted, due to the British tv audience is... I think it's 70% female. This is why American sci-fi shows tend not to do all that well over here compared with how they do in the US (where the majority of the television audience, apparantly, is male), and why RTD aimed to make absolutely certain that Dctor Who was 'female-friendly'.)

...And I overslept :/

£17,000 was a good start to the week, though, as far as the mean goes. Third highest win on a Monday, and if we keep this up, we'll wind up with the fourth best week, and only £566.67 per day behind the third highest.

I think today was a case of right decission at the wrong time. It should be noted, however, that that offer was either going to go through the roof or through the floor between the final eight and the final five, there was no inbetween, so, without looking at the FD, mean and balances, I could see someone managing to convince themselves there was another deal in that board. I'm not sure how they would, but Ic an see someone doing it. As was said - 37% chance of disaster. but that's a 63% chance of a huge increase in the offer on that board. There's no way of justifying an offer less than £40k if the £250k is left in the final five, in my opinion, afterall, since at that point the banker is trying to do damage limitation. In fact, I'd say that the banker has to make comparitively huge offers if the 250k is left in the final eight, possably or the 100k, since at that point it becomes a game of 'Not allowing 250k to still be in the final 5' for him.

Or at least that's my perception of the gameplan the Banker should take on if £250k is in the final eight. I mean, sure, where between the £40k and the mean will be determined by the player but, the one in five chance of the box being £250k should be sending alarm bells, and the possability of a £250k in the final five should heavially encourage very strong final eight offers.
Gizensha | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 8:14 pm | #

And after all that, she knew where £250k was. Spooky.

And of course she had a red in her box.

Saturday was the wrong decision at the right time. Today was the right decision at the wrong time. That's how the game works - you can look at it in terms of probability, but strange things do happen.

No question that utility theory struck here - at that point it was a 3/8 chance of disaster or a 5/8 chance of a no-brainer offer in the region of £50k.

Given Karen's ambitions, that breakdown makes the deal look strange. Googling suggests that commercial pilot training costs in the region of £50k:

http://www.ccat.org.uk/ costs_fwi...wintegrated.htm

...anyway. Having to leave at the second adbreak because of going to pick up my AS/A2 results was maddening, though I did find out the result from one of my friends and I was so relieved she took the offer when she did.
KP | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 8:40 pm | #

They've stopped putting DOND on the screens at work to make sure that we actually do some work while its on.
NJ | Homepage | 12.19.05 - 9:42 pm | #

Been using a lottery odds calculating programme to develop an understanding of the Game. It allows you to programme the number of balls - the number of picks - and the odds of any combination of balls coming up.

Round One 5 from 22

Taking out any 5 = 1 in 26334
Taking out any 4 = 1 in 1463
Taking out any 3 = 1 in 154
Taking out any 2 = 1 in 23.1
Taking out any 1 = 1 in 4.4

Round Two 3 from 17
Any 3 = 1 in 680
Any 2 = 1 in 45.33
Any 1 = 1 in 5.66

Round Three 3 from 14
Any 3 = 1 in 364
Any 2 = 1 in 30.33
Any 1 = 1 in 4.66

Round Four 3 from 11
Any 3 = 1 in 165
Any 2 = 1 in 18.33
Any 1 = 1 in 3.66

Round Five 3 from 8
Any 3 = 1 in 56
Any 2 = 1 in 9.33
Any 1 = 1 in 2.66

Found Six 3 from 5
Any 3 = 1 in 10
Any 2 = 1 in 3.33
Any 1 = 1 in 1.66


ANY COMMENTS?


which suggests that the odds of taking out the top 3 in the the 3 from 8 round is 1 in 56. Taking out the top 2 in the 3 from 8 round is 1 in 9.33. Taking out the top one in the 3 from 8 round is 1 in 2.66.
SD | 12.19.05 - 11:34 pm | #

cont...

making the 3 from 8 Round the round that sorts out the cautious from the Gamblers
SD | 12.19.05 - 11:35 pm | #

I think the odds of '2 or more' would be more useful than the odds of 'any 2'. However, thanks. Also, while this list is probably useful (could we get it up anywhere that's easier to find, anyone?) for some situations, I feel it would also be useful, maybe more so, to treat the... Top 5, for example, as 5 numbers. Then work out how many of them were 'expected' to go after the first five, after the first round of three, the second round of three, etc, simply to gauge if the top end of the board is doing better or worse than expectations at any particular stage. I also feel that doing that sort of analysis of the board, since it's simply memorising a list of numbers, would probably be easier to do in the studio, than any real analysis based upon FD or means, etc. (though these probability lists are also useful for that purpose, there might be too many of them for ease of memorising for the vast majority of people).

Also, I somewhat (read, significantly) find odds as %'s or decimals easier to interprit, and we've already got the round of five odds pretty much memorised (10% of leaving either the bottom two, 30% of taking out the top two (the 10% is a subcomponant of that chance), 70% of leaving at least one of the top two, 40% of leaving the top one, 40% of leaving the second to top one, and 10% chance of leaving the top two), all of which are easy to calculate in your head if you forget them, because there are only 10 possable combinations of 2 from 5 possabilities.

1 in 4.4 is useful for working out the expected return, but seems a more artificial way of phrasing odds in a purely mathematical expression. As such my preference to percentages and decimals is probably due to coming from the realms of 'A level math student a few years ago', whereas those who come from 'natural expression' (which seems to be based upon what bookies will tell you when they state the odds) will probably be more used to the 1 in 4.4.
Gizensha | Homepage | 12.20.05 - 12:10 am | #

US version is on....showing the models...contestant Karen picks cas 14.

rember, values are

.01
1
5
10
25
50
75
100
200
300
400
500
750

1K
5K
10K
25K
50K
75K
100K
200K
300K
400K
500K
750K
1million

rd 1:

$25, $.01, $400, $200, $5, $5000

offer:$21,000

no deal..
David | 12.20.05 - 1:13 am | #

rd 2:

$750,000!...then...$1million! (not a good start)

then there's some better news: $100, then $750..

then a break beforelast case before 2nd offer
David | 12.20.05 - 1:16 am | #

last case...$400,000! (not a good round)

2nd offer: $37,000.

Karen has her husband, her daughter and her daughter's husband to help her along...next off would be after another 4 cases.
David | 12.20.05 - 1:20 am | #

RD 3: 4 cases

$50, $10, $100,000!, then $75,000!

offer: $53,000.....NO DEAL.
David | 12.20.05 - 1:25 am | #

RD 4: 3 cases...

$1,000....then $1!....but followed by $200,000...

banker calls....but it's ringing during the break.
David | 12.20.05 - 1:28 am | #

offer...lucky $77,000..she says "as long as the two big ones are showin' (300K and 500K)I'm goin'...no deal...

next round: 2 cases....

$10,000...but then case 13 is $300,000!

Banker calls and thinks odds are in his favor...offer is $63,000.

17% chance she has $500,000....Howie opens the case to the button the contestant presses to deal....but NO DEAL....


1 case this time.....it's not bad...$25,000...


offer....$90,000. Howie says think about it...as they go to break.
David | 12.20.05 - 1:38 am | #

Cases remaining:

$75, $300, $500, $50,000, $500,000.
David | 12.20.05 - 1:41 am | #

Karen goes with what her husband wants...he says no deal, she says no deal..

1 case: She goes with 19, because she met her husband on the 19th....





opens to reveal...


$300!


$75, $500, $50,000, and $500,000 remain...
David | 12.20.05 - 1:43 am | #

offer coming..Howie says wow...and it is: $138,000!


She's thinking......
David | 12.20.05 - 1:44 am | #

the family has a feeling about case 8....but it's up to her. ....she says "at home you make the decisions...but we're not at home.."

She opens the button case.....and the SLAMS IT SHUT! NO DEAL!

1 case to open...
David | 12.20.05 - 1:47 am | #

She's going with 8......the family said go with 8...she says go with 8....she doesn't want to see it...Howie says maybe she'll want to see it after a break....
David | 12.20.05 - 1:48 am | #

if it's $75 or $500, you could be looking at a $200K offer...if it's the $50K, not quite as high...if it's the $500K, maybe $20K.....
David | 12.20.05 - 1:51 am | #

back....and case 8 is opened...

it has...




(lot of suspense, isn't it?)





OH HECK!

$500,000!!!!


(everyone had a feeling on case 8...and it was the WRONG feeling!)
David | 12.20.05 - 1:53 am | #

well there's still a chance at $50K....but banker wants to end this. $17K offer.

but no deal....
David | 12.20.05 - 1:54 am | #

Not the best start for a new series.
Simon | 12.20.05 - 1:55 am | #

Any more updates David?
Simon | 12.20.05 - 1:57 am | #

she opens 1 case....$75!


it's a $500/$50,000 decision....Banker his it right in the middle. $25,000..



and she HITS THE BUTTON! DEAL AT $25K!

but did she make the right call....she had a 5 and either 2 or 4 zeros ater it......Howie opens the case...


GOOD DECISION! $500 in her case!

Technical banker win, but still a great start....and speaking of start, they're going to start another game in the last few minutes.

Jason is the contestant...two minute drill is in play..

RD 1:
$200
$200K!
$25
$50K
$25K
$750K!!

banker comes up with a joke offer...$7,000. It's quickly no dealed, which is good, because time has run out. They'll pick up the game tommorrow.

and a woman from Mississippi wins $10,000 in a viewer contest.
David | 12.20.05 - 2:08 am | #

(Staying up to watch some NFL)

Clearly the style is similar to other daytime versions. Having 2 games in one show though? That's interesting. Sounds to me like American players could well be much more reckless that other nationalities though.
NJ | Homepage | 12.20.05 - 2:42 am | #

At one case an offer, I think she was right to ND the $90k but wrong to the $138k.
Gizensha | 12.20.05 - 7:25 am | #

$138k sounds like the one that should have been taken to me too. The highest the next offer was going to be was $200k and if $500k went the offer was going to crumble, as indeed it did.

Like the idea of a Millionaire-style 'let's go on to our next contestant' trick. I wonder if we'll get any 'the banker will make you an offer - in the next episode' tricks.
KP | Homepage | 12.20.05 - 12:50 pm | #

Also noteworthy: the $17k offer with three boxes left, and the first proveout 'offer' for Karen, were both above the mean... and the first of these was rejected.
KP | Homepage | 12.20.05 - 2:16 pm | #