To start a new week, here are some interesting DoND stats.

Top 5 Highest Winnings.
1) Jennifer - £120,000
2) Brenda - £57,000
3) Mally - £54,000
4) Lee - £50,000
5) Trevor - £47,000

Top 5 Lowest Winnings.
1) Nick - 1p
2) Raj - 10p
3) Irene - £5
4) James - £10
5) John G - £10

Top 5 Longest Serving Contestants.
1) Karen - 33 Shows
2) John M - 32 Shows
3) Gill - 29 Shows
4) Elaine H - 29 Shows
5) Kai & John (Show 2) - 29 Shows

Top 5 Shortest Serving Contestants
(Excluding the original 22).
1) Garvan - 9 Shows
2) Tina - 11 Shows
3) Daz - 11 Shows
4) Vaughan - 12 Shows
5) Jennifer, Mally, Andy K & Hayley - 14 Shows

Top 5 Best Appearance Fees
(This is based on the average of total winnings and number of show appearances).

Excluding the original 22
1) Jennifer - £8,571.43
2) Daz - £4,090.91
3) Mally - £3,857.14
4) Jessica - £2,562.50
5) Brenda - £2,478.26

Including the original 22
1) Lynn - £14,000
2) Anita - £11,000
3) Rachel - £6,250
4) Mark - £4,950
5) Haleem - £3,700
Travis P | 02.19.06 - 6:42 pm | #

I love those stats :) Who's been on for longest without being picked among the current box-opening brigade? And I thought Garvan was on for seven shows rather than nine but I'll trust you :)
KP | Homepage | 02.19.06 - 6:55 pm | #

Fin has been on longest out of the current bunch (26 shows as of tomorrow). Garvan was definately on for 7 shows, not 9. Otherwise great stats.
Alex | 02.19.06 - 7:01 pm | #

Lovely stats there.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.19.06 - 7:45 pm | #

No, Garvan has attended nine shows. He first appeared on episode 62 (Robbie). Read the commentary and he is classed as the "new guy" who had £500 at the start of the game.

http://www.geocities.com/tpenery...nery/ garvan.jpg
Travis P | 02.19.06 - 7:52 pm | #

To clarify.

At the start of tomorrows show, the longest serving contestants at the moment are.

1) Fin - 26 Shows
2) Anna - 22 Shows
3) Okiem - 21 Shows
4) Donna - 20 Shows
5) Norma - 19 Shows
Travis P | 02.19.06 - 8:02 pm | #

You're right. I thought he played 7 shows since that's what he said he'd been on for when he played. Checking my records, it is definately nine.
Alex | 02.19.06 - 10:15 pm | #

Forum watch from me, a DOND thread has sprung up on the forums of one of my favourite magazines. Thread here.

http://www.neomag.co.uk/forum/fo...4636&PN=1& TPN=2
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 12:33 am | #

OK, after talking to KP and Joe Raygor about this, I'll break the silence. I'm developing a British DoND game as we speak. Right now, I'm just trying to get the monitor to work properly, with the money slides sliding into place from below and then sliding horizontally to be removed. I'm also working on trying to get an audio banker, if that would be possible. All the aspects from the show will be there hopefully: a proveout round, the little set flash as a contestant is chosen (you'll just choose a box), the phone, the center table you sit at, a full functioning monitor. I'm working on a few other things like zooming in on the box you want to remove, but we'll see how that goes. I'm working as hard as I can with my busy schedule. I'd expect a few weeks for it to be finished. I'm attempting to make this so no one else could possibly make a better one.
Alex Davis | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 12:55 pm | #

Cool Alex. We've yet to have a perfect DOND game on the web.
Simon | 02.20.06 - 2:36 pm | #

I can't wait to see the game Alex.
Anyway, correct me if I'm wrong on that Saturday is show 100?

I'm in the commentary box today, but just to give my general opinion as I have to sort out my broken PHP coding. Fun.
Michael | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 3:31 pm | #

This Saturday coming is episode 100, yes.

Thanks in advance to commentators, I've got to do some "proper" "work" this afternoon. :(
Brig Bother | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 3:50 pm | #

I'll be commentating too. I reckon it's got to be Fin today. Or Anna, as she hasn't stood out so much in the box-opening queue for me at least.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:06 pm | #

The parlour game warm-up has rarely been this one-sided - 95-35 after an amusing letters game: 'MATEXUPSO'.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:13 pm | #

And Matthew produces a Carol-beating numbers game performance with six small numbers, and completes the rout with the conundrum - BEDHUBRIS becomes RUBBISHED and it's a 115-35 win. He's had a century every game. Could this be a Conor-beater?
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:16 pm | #

And 6 small numbers (3, 2, 3, 8, 6, 8) give a 518 target in stunning fashion with one Carol didn't get.

BEDHUBRIS becomes RUBBISHED to give a 115-35 demolition.

Places people, its time to play.
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:18 pm | #

115-35 is the equivalent of 77-23, so I predict a 77-23 technical win one way or the other...
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:19 pm | #

R&J talking to 'a British movie star' I've never heard of, and we're away. Commentary: NJ. Stats: KP.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:20 pm | #

And just so you know, the starting stats are as follows:

Mean: £25,712.12
Median: £875
Absolute balance: 0
Significants: 1/2, 0
FD: £9,215.40
Volatility: 0.79
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:21 pm | #

Rather extreme close-up for Noel there.

Start of a new week. Following quite an odd week. Russell's side-splitting game and John's big gamble make the headlines.
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:21 pm | #

'It would be fantastic to start with a big money win'. We never have, have we?

Today's player is Fin, as I expected.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:22 pm | #

And its Fin! Psychic KP strikes.
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:22 pm | #

Hmmm. Tis Fin as KP said.
I sense a good win today.
Michael | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:22 pm | #

What's up with the monkey noises anyway?

Finley McLoughlin from Loughborough has Box 1.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:23 pm | #

Uh-oh. 'I'm just here for the game.' I'm worried about what that implies for his utility curve.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:24 pm | #

This is Fin, training for a marathon and of 'independant means'. He doesn't need the money, we have a game here. He has a copy of The Alchemist with him. I'm looking forward to this.
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:24 pm | #

His utility curve is likely to be conducive to either a huge win or a tiny win.

He's making his own decisions. Yay.

Away we go.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:25 pm | #

He's not asking for advice. The decisions are his.

GAME ON!!

Box 6 (Jermaine)
-£15,000-
Oooh...

Box 15 (Sarah)
-£75,000-
Oooh...

Box 3 (Okiem)
-£1,000-
Still red.

Box 12 (Gary)
-£100-
About time.

Box 16 (Candice)
-£5-
Strong finish.
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:27 pm | #

Not a great opening round but the stats aren't all that bad.

Mean: £27,915.39
Median: £750
Absolute balance: -4
Significants: 8/17, -1
FD: £9,670.25
Volatility: 1.11

The board:
1p, 10p, 50p, £1, £10, £50, £250, £500, £750
£3k, £5k, £10k, £20k, £35k, £50k, £100k, £250k
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:28 pm | #

The gold-alchemist idea is there.

Offer 1
£900
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:28 pm | #

I seemed to be eating my words as the first 4 boxes were reds, one of them being £75k.

Prediction: £2,200
B/o: £900

No brainer.
Michael | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:28 pm | #

"This is not the stage of the game we're ever planning to leave at."

No deal.
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:29 pm | #

The offer is a joke at £900, less than 10% of the FD. Fin knows that nobody will deal at the first offer and he says the opening offer is hence irrelevant. Ding!
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:29 pm | #

First 3 boxes Michael.

Box 4 (Tracey)
-£3,000-
Say what you like, its red.

Box 9 (Beryl)
-£50-
That isn't though.

Box 18 (Paula)
Incoming Break...

Break.
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:31 pm | #

We go into the break with a board not to complain about too loudly, to be honest.

Mean: £31,434.11
Median: £750
Absolute balance: -1
Significants: 8/15, 0
FD: £11,518.92
Volatility: 1.13

I stand by my prediction this will be either a huge win or a tiny win.

The Big Board displays the following values:

1p, 10p, 50p, £1, £10, £250, £500, £750
£5k, £10k, £20k, £35k, £50k, £100k, £250k
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:31 pm | #

And its Sam with the voiceover again. The production crew seemed to like this idea.
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:32 pm | #

I think it was Saj actually, I didn't hear properly.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:32 pm | #

Me neither.

But we're back with the big, gassy man.
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:35 pm | #

I don't like this spiritualist theme. I actually annoys me.

I think it's fair to say that there are three main groups to DoND:
1. The Statisticians
2. The Spiritualists
3. And the Randomisers

The top two usually get eaten alive by the banker as he knows that they're there to win. The randomisers surely have the upper hand as there is an air of mystery around them and the banker can't tell whether they are there just to play the game or win some money.

Going back to my original comment of 'I sense a big win today' I now withdraw that statement. I'll probably be eating my words at the end though.
Michael | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:36 pm | #

Box 18 (Paula)
-£50,000-
Eeeeshh...
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:36 pm | #

Two-box game.

Mean: £30,107.97
Median: £625
Absolute balance: -9
Significants: 1/2, -1
FD: £9,805.05
Volatility: 1.46

Chances of the £100k/£250k finish: 1 in 91.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:37 pm | #

"As long as the last two boxes are £100,000 and £250,000, I'll be a happy man."

Well, obviously.
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:37 pm | #

The banker thinks he should sit cross legged on the table.

Offer 2
£2,300
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:37 pm | #

"He's just playing to the rulebook."

No deal.
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:38 pm | #

He's 'playing to the rule book' says Fin. I wonder whether Weaver will dispute that. No Deal here is indeed playing to the rule book.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:38 pm | #

I've a feeling Fin will play through to the end, regardless of how the game goes.
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:38 pm | #

And it's now officially a two box game.
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:39 pm | #

Box 20 (Marcus)
-£35,000-
Now there's a gap.

Box 14 (Mike)
-£1-
Steadily taking them out.

Box 10 (David)
-£5,000-
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:40 pm | #

Four reds, seven blues, but the continued presence of the top two is going to worry the banker. Not sure if I'd prefer this to the reverse board.

Mean: £34,682.78
Median: £500
Absolute balance: -11
Significants: 6/11, -1
FD: £10,506.12
Volatility: 1.90
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:41 pm | #

The board:

1p, 10p, 50p, £10, £250, £500, £750
£10k, £20k, £100k, £250k
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:41 pm | #

"Keep playing like this and you'll create your own religion"
Fin-ism maybe?

Prediction: £5,100
B/o: £11,000
Michael | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:42 pm | #

£11k! A good offer, but he won't be interested.
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:42 pm | #

It looked like the end of a french film when his name appeared.

Offer 3
£11,000
Its worth dealing I think but he won't.

No deal.
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:42 pm | #

First serious offer of the day, above the FD (which is overvaluing the board in my view, which is unusual) but it's turned down. I guess we're going to see some huge offers now.

Especially as 50p goes.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:42 pm | #

Delayed reactions from the audience today. Everything is too calm for this stage.
Michael | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:43 pm | #

Box 11 (Lisa)
-50p-
And The Fin smiles.

Box 13 (Anna)
-£500-
And again.

Box 21 (Donna)
-10p-
Ohhhh Yes!
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:44 pm | #

What a great round! This'll be huge, but I still reckon he'll play on regardless.
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:44 pm | #

And now we do have a strong board, no question about it.

Mean: £47,626.25
Median: £5,375 (woo, crazy number alert)
Absolute balance: 10
Significants: 3/4, 3
FD: £19,047.76
Volatility: 1.91
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:44 pm | #

Another first. He's scared. I would be.

Offer 4
After The Break
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:45 pm | #

The voiceover is definitely Saj.
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:46 pm | #

And it is Saj, not Sam.
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:46 pm | #

Fin has calmed down the audience in spite of a very very nice board.

The Banker isn't calm though. Break comes very early.

I'd probably take anything over £25k and turn down anything below £20k. I suspect this will be an offer I'd take.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:46 pm | #

We're so early in the game, there's plenty of time for him to go all the way. Which could have unbelievable consequences, good or bad.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:49 pm | #

Is the break coming early a sign of something extraordinary. Or a tense last few rounds?
Michael | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:49 pm | #

(In terms of time rather than the stage. The second break came several minutes early.)
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:49 pm | #

One thing's for sure - I can't see him dealing this next offer whatever it is.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:50 pm | #

R+J here still panicing about bird flu.
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:50 pm | #

And we're back. A full fifteen minutes left and the top two still there. Very, very exciting.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:50 pm | #

Offer 4
£44,000
Whoa.
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:51 pm | #

The offer...

...is...

...£44,000. Oh dear hell. Even he might deal this.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:51 pm | #

Forty-fucking-four!
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:51 pm | #

£44,000?! Indian Banker Alert!
Michael | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:51 pm | #

'£44,000 at this stage of the game is without precedent'.

Noel has already forgotten Brenda's game.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:51 pm | #

Erm, wow. It's another Insane Banker day, clearly.
Billy | 02.20.06 - 4:52 pm | #

Head in hands at the offer but now back to zen-mode. He is immensely calm.

Oak is asked what he's done. Oak says he can go all the way.
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:52 pm | #

Hang on, didn't Fin say that he wanted no advice?
Michael | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:52 pm | #

In fairness, this is still below the mean, and the Banker must be assuming Fin will take his box if he made conventional offers...
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:53 pm | #

He did. Pesky Edmonds.
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:53 pm | #

No Deal!
Michael | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:53 pm | #

£44,000.

No deal. No surprise.
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:53 pm | #

And it's a No Deal. This is either going to be joyous or terrible.
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:54 pm | #

Whoa.... if he hits either of them, he's gonna be punished bad.
David B | 02.20.06 - 4:54 pm | #

It's still far too early for a Deal.

So Fin turns down the biggest no-brainer offer ever seen at the Round of Eight. But then again, he's come for the game... and it's not a one-box game...

'That is one of the highest sums of money that anyone has No Dealed'. Second only to Jennifer's £52k, AIUI.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:54 pm | #

Buggar.
Michael | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:54 pm | #

Argh!
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:54 pm | #

Noel didn't ask for advice, he asked what Fin had done to the banker.

Box 7 (Paul)
-£250,000-
Oh no...
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:54 pm | #

£250k goes. It's Saturday all over again.
Billy | 02.20.06 - 4:54 pm | #

Ooooh dear.
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:55 pm | #

Buggar again.
Michael | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:55 pm | #

Box 5 (Matt)
-£750-
Better.

Box 2 (Norma)
-£100,000-
Oh cock.
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:55 pm | #

Gotta laugh at that. He overcooked it badly.
David B | 02.20.06 - 4:55 pm | #

Prediction: £900
Michael | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:56 pm | #

He'll definitely play til the end now.
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:56 pm | #

Mean: £6,052
Median: £250
Absolute balance: -10
Significants: 1/5, -2
FD: £2,714.31
Volatility: 1.95
Pages added to 'the £250k will never be won' file: lots
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:56 pm | #

Offer 5
£3,000
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:56 pm | #

Offer of £3,000. That's sensible and I'd probably go on. He's definitely taking his box and I think Nick's going to get company.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:57 pm | #

Has the maximum ever been won, anywhere in the world?
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:57 pm | #

No deal, going for the glory.
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:57 pm | #

Ian: the top prize has been won in several countries. In the case of both Australia and France, someone turned down an above-mean offer in the process.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:57 pm | #

It's entirely even now.
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:58 pm | #

No New Members to the 1p club!
Michael | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:58 pm | #

Cheers, KP.

The penny's gone! Not a *complete* disaster, then...
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:58 pm | #

Box 17 (Sam)
-£250-
Good, but the only worthy blue.

Box 22 (Trevor)
-1p-
That's what he was aiming for!

Box 8 (Lucy)
-£10-
YES!!
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:58 pm | #

Ah, that's a much better round. He'll open his box.
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:59 pm | #

Its a double red showdown! £10,000 minumum!
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:59 pm | #

Could he manage to get a draw?

Prediction: £15k
Michael | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:59 pm | #

Fin won't be joining Nick, something I really, really thought could happen.

...oh dear hell. If he'd done that in the last round...

FD is £14,571.07.

Has anyone ever been guaranteed this much in active play?
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 4:59 pm | #

Offer 6
£15,000

No deal.
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 5:00 pm | #

B/o: £15k

No Deal
Michael | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 5:00 pm | #

Predictably he decides to risk £5k on a coin flip. I wouldn't but his utility curve makes that reasonable.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 5:00 pm | #

He's swapping!
Michael | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 5:00 pm | #

Norma's going to open his box for him.
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 5:01 pm | #

He's taking Box 19!
Michael | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 5:01 pm | #

Or not. He's gone for the swap.
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 5:01 pm | #

Interesting finish here.

Picking boxes from a line... hell, it's JUST LIKE THE PRIMETIME VERSIONS.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 5:01 pm | #

Hint of sarcasm there.

£10k
Damn.
Michael | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 5:02 pm | #

Bugger!
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 5:02 pm | #

And its the swap! It didn't end well last time it was taken.

Fin takes it. Box 1 goes to Norma...hang on? OK, he takes box 19 off Saj.

So. Good swap?

Box 19 (Saj/Fin)
-£10,000-
Still nothing to sniff at.

Box 1 (Fin)
-£20,000-
NJ | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 5:02 pm | #

His new box, Box 19...

...has won him £10,000.

Summary:

Box value: £20,000 (£10,000)
Prize won: £10,000
Peak offer: £44,000
Result: Outright Banker Win

Still a nice sum of money. I should have known he'd have a middle red all along.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 5:02 pm | #

Still, 10k. Better than a kick in the balls, especially for someone who claims he doesn't need the money.
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 5:03 pm | #

At least he's won double the LTL maximum.

Maureen is the first member of an ethnic minority I can remember seeing picking the blue box. It's the middle value, £1,000, for Mike Lansom from HYDE.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 5:04 pm | #

Haha, the woman on Box 3 is so tiny that she gets covered up to the nose by the box when she opens it!
Ian Symes | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 5:04 pm | #

115-35 is the equivalent of 77-23, so I predict a 77-23 technical win one way or the other...

Hilariously, he *did* finish up with 23% of the peak offer. But it was from opening a box and thus counts as an OBW.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 5:05 pm | #

Thanks chaps.

Re: has the top prize ever been won around the world - yes is the answer you were given. As may have been pointed out elsewhere though, the Brit show is unique (I think) in that the top prize is more than double the second top prize.

Let's not forget, the original rumours were that the top prize was going to be £100,000. I'd be interested to see what the board would have looked like with that.
Brig Bother | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 5:29 pm | #

Possibly worth mentioning, very late, that the announcer before Countdown said today's Deal or No Deal would be "spectacular". Just for the record, like.
Tufty | 02.20.06 - 5:41 pm | #

Another red to appease the statisticians!
Tim | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 5:58 pm | #

Weaver's analysis of today's game is going to make fascinating reading.

Fin certainly influenced the offers and a 'normal' player might have expected an offer of nearer £22k at the Round of Eight, to be honest. That's the point where I'd have had problems deciding on that board.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 6:03 pm | #

The 44k offer was remarkably high. In fact, the only way he was going to get a significantly higher offer (it might have gone slightly higher had the 250k remained) was if the 100k and the 250k remained to the final five.

Was certainly an interesting game.

Spookily, he had a demeanour that was somewhat reminiscent of someone from my A/S level Religeous Education class. Calm, positive with a somewhat dry wit.
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 7:04 pm | #

Oh, and I've been thinking about things along the lines of KP's "Hilariously, he *did* finish up with 23% of the peak offer. But it was from opening a box and thus counts as an OBW."

Namely, shouldn't the box amount be the zero point for TB/PW calculations?
Gizensha | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 7:07 pm | #

95: Take me out!

New player is Matt.

17 -- £1400 -- £5100 -- £13,000
Offer £900, 30th percentile.
A slightly poor opening attracts a poorer offer.

14 -- £1300 -- £5000 -- £11,000
Offer £2300, 38th percentile.
Still low given four of the top six are still in play. Not a huge amount of backup, though.

Is this playing to the rulebook, asks KP? A smidge on the low side, but if the player thinks these offers are to his expectation, then he's going to play rationally.

11 -- £460 -- £4100 -- £16,000
Offer £11,000, 64th percentile.
Of the 55 combinations remaining: Twenty-eight combinations at £600 and below, seven of around £4000, seven of around £8000, one of perhaps £14,000, nine of around £50,000, nine of around £100,000, one of £150,000. Crunching the probabilities gives a take-out deal around £21,000. Which you're not going to get at this stage.

08 -- £4500 -- £11,000 -- £29,000
During the break, do the maths. 28 combos remain: six below £500, four each of £4000 and £8000, six each of £50,000 and £100,000, and the ones of £14,000 and £150,000. Take-out offer from these figures is somewhere around £40,000.
Offer £44,000, 71st percentile.
I'd have gone here. Heck, my utility curve says to go at £20,000. More than twice that amount is not only generous for the board, but above the estimated value remaining according to the probabilities.

05 -- £2500 -- £3000 -- £4800
Offer £3000, 50th percentile.
Two at £100, three at £4000, three at £8000, one at £14,000, and one at nothing. Something north of four grand will see us sprinting for the door.

A new metric for us to use; the Take-Out Figure.

Take-Out Figure: The arithmetical mean of the expected value of each two-box combination remaining in the game. The definition of "expected value" will vary from person to person - it may usefully be approximated by the root-mean-square value.

Theory: Any offer above the Take-Out should be dealt at once. No offer significantly below should be taken under normal circumstances.

For to-day's game, the Take-Outs were:
Start of game: £17,000
17 -- £18,000 -- offer was 5%
14 -- £19,000 -- 12%
11 -- £21,000 -- 51%
08 -- £31,000 -- 141%
05 -- £4000 -- 76%

Yes, I shall be monitoring this figure, and testing the theory, over the coming days.
Weaver | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 7:10 pm | #

I think this Take-Out Metric could be very useful indeed. :) Proves that today's Round of Eight offer was a no-brainer, that's for sure.
KP | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 11:20 pm | #

I was going to update the FAQ last week wasn't I?

Never mind, I'll do it tomorrow.
Brig Bother | Homepage | 02.20.06 - 11:49 pm | #

Great game
Ford | 06.15.06 - 7:43 am | #

he was sexy
Anonymous | 01.06.07 - 6:07 pm | #