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Mister Al: I've put your list of odds up on its own page for posterity, I hope you don't mind!
Brig Bother | Homepage | 12.21.05 - 11:12 am | #

Just to add a quick audience figure update for yesterday's show: 3.1 million/27% share - C4's top rating show of the day once again.
Tom H | 12.21.05 - 12:48 pm | #

I was at work, so I couldn't do the US show last night...I did follow it, and the player had a very interesting game, and a decision I thought was poor to a point..

*SPOILER*

Player had 4 cases left:

10K, 300K, 400K, 500K

offer was $240K, and he ND it.

Picks a case- it's the $500K.

so it's 10K, 300K, 400K.

offer was $189K, and he dealt.....

they did the proveout, but there wasn't an offer.

next case would have taken $300K out, so it would have been a 10K/400K decision.....so the offer could have been closer to the $240K earlier..

his case had $10K, BTW.

*END SPOILER*

The question that had to be asked last night is, if you have a decent guarantee and a realistic chance of winning many times more, do you ND all the way to the last two regardless of the offer?
David | 12.21.05 - 2:54 pm | #

US DoND is looking pretty good...it gained a million viewers last night, up to 12.6 million...
David | 12.21.05 - 4:16 pm | #

A close Countdown going down to the conundrum to end the year.

Coming up is the final 4.15pm DOND of the year (it's on at 5.15pm from tomorrow).
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:18 pm | #

I'm here to provide commentary, in case no-one else shows up.
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:20 pm | #

Today's player is Chris, a chauffeur from Whitley Bay in Tyneside with Box 2.
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:23 pm | #

He already knows the order of boxes he is going to pick.
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:23 pm | #

He brings out the piece of paper with the numbers on he is going to pick. He has picked 2 boxes he wants at the end and he has one of them in front of him.
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:24 pm | #

Here we go

Box 12 (Julie) £75,000

At which point he tears up the piece of paper!!!!!!!!!
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:25 pm | #

lol...I wonder if he planned on doing that all along....
David | 12.21.05 - 4:25 pm | #

heh.. Gets £75k and tears up his plan.
Gizensha | Homepage | 12.21.05 - 4:26 pm | #

Noel says in the military they say if you have a plan, stick to it. He goes back to the paper with

Box 19 (£50)
Box 9 (Jill) £100

Chris realises he wrote numbers on page 12, so that wasnt the number he was going to pick.

Box 8 (Simon) 10p
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:26 pm | #

And that box with £75k was a page number, not part of the plan, apparantly.
Gizensha | Homepage | 12.21.05 - 4:27 pm | #

Final box of the round

Box 21 (Lee) 1p !!!!!

FD already in 5 figure territory at £11,468.93.
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:27 pm | #

well that's a really good round...losing one of the big three isn't too bad...
David | 12.21.05 - 4:28 pm | #

Initial offer of £8,500 !!!!!
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:29 pm | #

bank never takes the 1st offer seriously...
David | 12.21.05 - 4:30 pm | #

Some of the numbers come from a lucky 50p. 1998 - 19, 9, 8. It reminds me of the old lottory ads.
Gizensha | Homepage | 12.21.05 - 4:30 pm | #

Noel says it's one of the biggest opening offers. Don't have statistics with me so don't know how big it is.
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:30 pm | #

NO DEAL

Box 11 (Alan) £100,000 - bad start again.

Box 15 50p
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:31 pm | #

Board was worth about 12-13k, he then drew £100k.
Gizensha | Homepage | 12.21.05 - 4:31 pm | #

looks like another middle red game...
David | 12.21.05 - 4:32 pm | #

...That was a strange cut to break...
Gizensha | Homepage | 12.21.05 - 4:32 pm | #

Box 4 (Michael) -

Noel goes off on a rant about people coming up to him in the street asking whether there really is someone at the end of the phone and whether he knows whats in the box. He says "GIVE ME A BREAK"
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:32 pm | #

I was hoping he'd maybe punch the camera to the ground for a moment, or start throttling the cameraman.
Billy | 12.21.05 - 4:35 pm | #

anyway. FD at £10,049
Absolute Balance at +20 (huge)
Significant Balance at 7/15; +3 (not huge but not bad. The +3 is significant, the 7/15 is only just not-good, but it is by no means bad)

I'd estimate the board's worth about £11.5k-12.5k. However, the fact the £250k is on its own makes it less comfortable than I'd like. Saying that, we're not worse than expectations for loosing two of the top five.
Gizensha | Homepage | 12.21.05 - 4:36 pm | #

And we're back.....
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:37 pm | #

Box 4 contains £250

FD now of £11,294.17
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:37 pm | #

9 reds and 5 blues left.
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:38 pm | #

FD has gone down by only £175 but the offer has gone down to £2,700.

A joke offer.
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:40 pm | #

OK, this is comfortable now. FD at £11,294
Absolute Balance 1/2; +3
Box has to be worth £12k-13k at least.

I'm expecting the offer to have rose a little, but not to the FD.

And the offer is... £2,700. That is nonsensical based on the board and the last offer, however, the Banker is the Banker.
Gizensha | Homepage | 12.21.05 - 4:40 pm | #

Noel things because Chris is mucking around with the banker, the banker is mucking around with him.

and its NO DEAL
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:41 pm | #

Box 17 (Angela) £500
Box 13 (Gavin) £50,000

Only 4 blues 8 reds now
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:42 pm | #

Michael (Box 14) £15,000

He is taking numbers called at the bingo club.

FD is £10,355.73

Offer of £6,200
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:43 pm | #

NO DEAL!!!!!!!
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:44 pm | #

"You think I'm joking, don't you?" 'Regretably no, I'm believing every word you say.'

Offer of £6,200.

Not a nonsensical offer, but way below what that board is worth.
Gizensha | Homepage | 12.21.05 - 4:45 pm | #

Box 3 (Irene) - £1 (she had 1p yesterday)
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:46 pm | #

Box 7 (Dave) £10,000
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:46 pm | #

Hmm. Irene has a bad feeling and her box contains £1. I'm starting to detect a pattern there.
Gizensha | Homepage | 12.21.05 - 4:46 pm | #

Box 1 (Jenni) - After the break (without the tenuous break link this time)
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:47 pm | #

Since when has 20k or 35k not been life changing to some people? Not as life-changing as some amounts, but still.

FD at £12,804
Absolute Balance at +16
Significant Balance 5/9; +3

Board is probably worth around 13.5k-14.5k now, though due to the board's stability issues, I'd consider going for an offer of 12k or more. There's over a 50% chance of losing one of the top three in the next set of boxes... And independently the odds of losing one of the top two are also above 50%.
Gizensha | Homepage | 12.21.05 - 4:52 pm | #

We're back

Box 1 contains £5

FD now at £16,134.03
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:53 pm | #

Mean is £39,345.
Median of £4,000
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:54 pm | #

Offer of £24,000.
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:54 pm | #

FD skyrocketted there.

FD at £16,134
Absolute Balance at +23
Significant Balance at 5/8; +4

Board must be worth around £17.5k-£18.5k now, but the stability issues still would make me consider an offer at the FD.

Offer of £24k. The banker really, really wants to avoid a situation of the £250k in the top 5, as is to be expected.
Gizensha | Homepage | 12.21.05 - 4:55 pm | #

It's the same decision as a couple of days ago, whether you risk the 37.5% chance of taking out the £250K.
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:55 pm | #

Chris speaks to his wife in the audience, she says that cars are cold in the winter if he had to sleep in them.
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:56 pm | #

Noel is playing devil's advocate but in the end we have a

DEAL!!!!!!
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:57 pm | #

I think it's a smart move here...the risk of losing the 250K was too much.
David | 12.21.05 - 4:58 pm | #

Well, that's the one of the top two that we expected to lose gone.
Gizensha | Homepage | 12.21.05 - 4:58 pm | #

Time for the prove out

Box 5 (Nick) £35,000 - one safety net gone.

Box 16 (£5,000)

He doesn't seem to be using his list now - looking up and down the wings.
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:59 pm | #

Box 10 (Jenna) £1,000

FD would have been £21,126,16 with an offer of £57,000.
Simon | 12.21.05 - 4:59 pm | #

Offer would have been £57k, apparantly. So that's a TBW at best, sadly. That's also an offer above the mean.
Gizensha | Homepage | 12.21.05 - 5:00 pm | #

well there's another TBW.....
David | 12.21.05 - 5:00 pm | #

Box 20 (Louise) £20,000
Box 18 £10

6 figure offer coming up if he doesnt hit the £250K

Box 22 (£250,000) PHEWWWWWWW
Simon | 12.21.05 - 5:01 pm | #

And the £250k goes.

Offer would have been... £1200.
Gizensha | Homepage | 12.21.05 - 5:01 pm | #

£750/£3,000 decision would have been left with a £1,200 offer.
Simon | 12.21.05 - 5:02 pm | #

Does someone have the link for the comments with the criteria for player/banker wins?

Chris had £3,000.
Simon | 12.21.05 - 5:02 pm | #

Double day for the viewer competition.

Box 2 contains £2,000 which goes to Margaret Vena of Bolton.
Simon | 12.21.05 - 5:03 pm | #

well another TBW (3 in a row), but still a close one (57-43)...2535-1965 Banker now..
David | 12.21.05 - 5:04 pm | #

I came up with them...

1:if player takes deal, deal taken = max deal offered and
deal > box, it's Outright Player win.

2:if player takes box and box > max bank offer: Outright player win.

3:if player takes deal and deal taken < box value: Outright Banker win.

4:if player takes box and box < max deal offered: Outright Banker win.

Outright win=100-0

5:if player takes deal and deal taken> box but deal taken < max deal offered, then Technical Player win if deal taken > 50% of the max offer, and Technical Banker win if Deal taken < 50% of the max bank offer.
David | 12.21.05 - 5:12 pm | #

so far:

OBW: 14
OPW: 13
TBW: 13
TPW: 5

The conditions are slightly skewed towards the banker I admit (because if a player takes a deal, the proveout usually results in a TBW)...but the banker does have more experience in playing the game....
David | 12.21.05 - 5:17 pm | #

Thanks David, just found them myself in the archive.
Simon | 12.21.05 - 5:22 pm | #

"Mister Al: I've put your list of odds up on its own page for posterity, I hope you don't mind!"

Wow! I feel flattered enough that anybody is the slightest bit interested in it. So for somebody to deem it interesting enough to warrant its own page, on the internet no less, makes me feel incredibly proud.
Mister Al | 12.21.05 - 6:20 pm | #

Incidentally that's 45 shows gone. Averaging about £18,000 per show.
NJ | Homepage | 12.21.05 - 7:44 pm | #

Every show of that recording session produced the same outcome - a TBW.

(That's assuming this was the last of three shows to be recorded on that day.)

Will we ever see that again?
KP | Homepage | 12.21.05 - 8:41 pm | #

I thought they were down to two-a-day now?
Matt Clemson | 12.21.05 - 11:47 pm | #

just a spoiler on US DoND....

player was down to 4 cases...10, 75, 5K, 1million....banker calls and offers 201K.....but then the phone rings AGAIN....the bloody banker put the contestant's kids on the line! After some talking to her kids and her family she deals at 201K.....

but had she played on....she would have knocked out the $75....

then the 5K!!!!

it would have been a $10/$1million decision! and the banker said he would have offered $500,000!!!

and to top it of...SHE HAD $10!!!!!

a Technical Banker Win, but WHO CARES!!
David | 12.22.05 - 1:37 am | #

Dude, would you mind putting some spoiler space before future US recaps? I've just found a place on IRC where they can be downloaded and I'm slowly trying to catch up :)
Brig Bother | Homepage | 12.22.05 - 1:58 am | #

sorry about that....I thought I did before I submitted it, but it didn't have as much space as I thought it did....but when you see this particular show, it's a really good one...and the ratings have been decent, so there should be more shows planned after this week for sometime in the future (the network that runs it has some trouble areas, but they have time because they are also doing the Olympics in February, so they don't have to rush...nor should they.)
David | 12.22.05 - 4:02 am | #

Brig, i hope you don't mind but could you e-mail me the website from where you got Deal or No Deal US episodes. is it just in IRC or is there torrents because i can't find anything anywhere on my own.
BRIAN
Brian | 12.22.05 - 3:43 pm | #

It's just in IRC, from the popular #survivor-central channel.

http://www.geocities.com/ gluedto...luedtothescreen is something you might find useful.
Brig Bother | Homepage | 12.22.05 - 4:25 pm | #

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