15 minutes to go to the first DoND to be shown in complete darkness, thus giving the illusion of a primetime show.

Talking of which, apparently Noel was interviewed on Radio 5 Live and hinted at the prospect of a Saturday primetime slot, but I haven't heard the interview myself.


A tuxedoed Noel!


Noel looks natty. He plugs the viewer competition again.


No Bow tie though.


Today's player is .....

Lee with box 16.


...That's not a tuxedo, that's a suit.

Anyway. This game reflects the important decissions that affect us day to day. Career or family. Something or something. Brown sauce or ketchup.

Toiday's player is Lee.


It's Lee! He's been fabulous value on the West Wing.

And he's an entrepreneur. Uh-oh.


Tuxedo, suit, whatever.

Happy birthday, Noel!


Tuxedo, suit, whatever.

Happy birthday, Noel!


It's Noel's birthday, apparantly. Is that today or on the date of recording, I wonder.


It is today. Noel was born December 22, 1948


Interesting strategy, and the Banker will hate it apparently.


"Each stage is a new game." We have the potential for a great player here, then.


Lee wants a fast paced game

Starts with Box 1 (Jenna) £1,000
Box 5 (Michael) £100,000


Box 7 (Alan) £10,000
Box 11 (Louise) £10

Just need £100 to complete the sequence now.

Box 2 (Andy) £50

FD of £9,464.40


Box 1 - £1000
Box 5 - £100,000
Box 7 - £10,000

(100 and 10 next?)

Box 11 - £10
Missed box number - £50

(Well. Nearly.)


And he's going to go with speed rounds all the way, it seems.

Box 1 (Jenna): £1,000. The blue in all but name.
Box 5 (Michael): £100,000. Yuk.
Box 7 (Alan): 'He needs more than luck here'. £10,000. Two from £1, £10 and £100 now?
Missed the box - £10! Spooky.
Box 2 (Andy): £50!


Lee suggests £6k. Noel knows that's high for an opening offer and implies he'd have to take him very seriously to do that.

And he has!


No Deal at £6k.


FD is £9,464.
Absolute Balance at -4
Significant Balance at 9/17; 0

About where we started, then. Slightly better.

"Where's 'happy birthday Noel'?" ... "Don't say it just sing it."

Offer on Lee's prediction at £6000. Impressive.


Round 2, or Game 2 in his mind.

Box 10 has £50k. Yuk. 'Another two to go... plenty of blues there.'
The other Michael opens Box 20 to reveal £15k. He has the wrong idea - looking at the blues left to hit, not the reds left to avoid.
Box 8, Max, and another spurious break link.


"I've learnt to expect the unexpected." (apparantly he's also learnt to expect when the breaks occur)


I think this board is worth £8k or so with the £250k and one, but only one, safety net.


I'd say if the 1p goes next, we're at an average but slightly-worse-than-start board.

Anyway.

Stats at the first break are...

FD at £7,601 (below starting, but not concerningly so)
Mean at £25,974 (about the starting value, actually)
Absolute Balance at -17 (worryingly low)
Significant Balance at 7/15; -2 (could be better but not bad)

I quite like the stats of this board. The bitty nature of the top six is somewhat concerning, however.


And we're back, and this is a pivotal box.


Box 8 contains £5,000

FD of £7,807.68
Mean of £27,4723
Median of £375


And it's £5,000.

This is a blue-heavy board, but four of the five reds are in the top six.

Lee predicts a £4,500 offer due to the lack of reds.


Box 8 contains £5000.

Lowering the Absolute Balance, raising the FD and the mean. No real change to the Sig Balance, but still.

He predicts a reduction, to £4,500. I think the reduction will be slightly more than that, myself, but the board is worth about £7000.


'He is resisting you'. £3,000 offer will be turned down. 'That's the yorker, the bouncer, call it what you will'. The two are complete opposites, heh. No deal.


Offer of £3000, and a swift No Deal.


The spooky Box 13 goes. £35k! 'Wow! Yet another red!'


Box 13 - £35000

There goes the absolute disaster safety net, then.


Box 21 (Pat): £750. Hell, at least it's blue. Median is a catastrophic £175 now, but FD isn't bad at £7,261.69, and the mean is above the start value.
Box 15 (Gavin): £250. Yay.


Lee's wife is in the audience again. Gets a good luck card from his kids to put on the table.


We won't get a much more bipolar board than this at halfway. Only four values between £5 and £75k!


Noel reminds people that contestants are away from home - 5 weeks in Lee's case.


Lee claims he's spent 'five weeks away from home'. I think he means 'two or three, but I've been told not to reveal this show's being recorded three times a day even though it's common knowledge'.

Offer could be £9k here.


'You are going to have such a miserable Christmas' says Noel to the Banker, who teases him over the £3k offer.

The offer is much more serious. £12,000!


Offer of £12,000


FD at £8,377
Mean has £31,692.

He decorates the table with a good luck card from his kids. Awww.

Absolute Balance at -23 (ouch)
Significant Balance at 6/11; -3.

This board is strange, some stats are saying that it's good, others are saying it's bad. I'm saying 'it would be good if there wasn't such a gaping hole in the red boxes.'

Noel gets confrontational after The Banker says the good luck card was really touching in a insincear way.

Offer of £12k. Suprisingly high, in my view.


NO DEAL at £12,000.


A no deal. Too quick for my liking, myself.


A 5.5% chance of taking out both big ones.

No Deal.


Box 9 (Gill) £20,000 - 1 safety net gone. Now only 3 reds and 7 blues left (5 of them the lowest ones)


Box 22 (Jenni) £5


Box 12 (Irene) - a failed psychic..

Break time


Box 9 contains £20k. 'You have a red fixation'. 'Yes, it's very interesting'. Cue giggles. 'Nervously interesting' says Noel.
Seven blues and three reds.
Box 22, opened by Jenni, had £250k last time. But it has the fiver this time!
Box 12 (Irene). 'You are so accurate with the predictions' Noel jokes, and that starts a good run of humour regarding her so-called psychic powers. Break time.


The median briefly fell to £52.50. That's insane.

FD is almost right on the starting value, interestingly - £9,197.18.


And we're back. This is a scary game.


Box contains £1 !!!!!!


£1! And I think we're heading for a deal.


'You'd have to be extraordinarily unlucky in the next three boxes to take out £75k and £250k'. 10.7% is not that extraordinary. FD is £11,613.23; I'd take anything above £15k.


It's a bit early timewise in the show for a deal now. Still 15 minutes to go.


board is better now.

FD of £11,613
Mean of £41,075
Absolute Balance at -14
Significant Balance at 5/8; -1

The offer should go up, but if I were the banker I'd consider going down with the offer to force him to play on. Either the £75k or the £250k can be expected to disappear. The other option is to try and get rid of him now in case the £250k survives into the last five.


Offer is £17,800


He says the existence of £250k is 'terrifying' him, though he feels reassured by the loss of £20k.

Noel says this is 'interesting'.

£17,800. Probably about right on this board.


£17,800 offer. He takes the 'try and avoid a 250k in final five' option, it seems.


Lee's wife Nicola is consulted. She says this is an offer worth serious consideration because the board could turn very quickly.

Max says No Deal.

I think he will given the time, but I may well have dealt this.


And he's going to play on.

No Deal! I think he might be making a mistake. The crowd don't.


No deal..


No Deal. This could be... interesting.


A No Deal. He really needs those low numbers.

1p! Great start!


Crucial 3 boxes

Box 17 (Arlette) 1p - Huge cheer from audience


Box 4 (Simon) £3,000


We can afford to lose £75k at this point, incidently, as far as offers are concerned.


35.7% chance of keeping both big ones.

Box 17. Arlette. 1p! And now things look very much better.
Box 4. Simon. Hand-holding behind him. Uh-oh. £3,000! Roar of approval.
Worst-case scenario now is four blues and £75k. If this isn't £250k, it's a monster offer. And Noel knows it.
Box 3. Angela. 10p! Wow.


Box 3 (Angela) 10p

FD up to £26,045.38
Mean of £65,120
Median of £500.


This'll be a no-brainer offer.


sounds like a good game so far....


I'd deal this next offer. Even if it turned out the £250k was in my box, I wouldn't mind. Just too risky to go on.


Will he triple it to £53.4k? That would be interesting.


Bloody hell, this board is huge.

Mean of £65,120
FD of £26,045
Absolute Balance is positive for the first time in the game - +5
Significant Balance at 1; +3

Offer of £50k at least coming up I think.


Phone lines now closed for viewer comp so I sense a deal coming now ......

Especially with a deal of .....

Noel goes close up to the camera and says don't go anywhere - this will be interesting.

£50,000


Noel does the walk...

...'don't go anywhere for a moment. This could be interesting.'

The offer is...

...£50,000. Oooh.


...Well... Saw that coming.


£50k was my guess too.

DEAL, FOR GOD'S SAKE!


40% chance of a six-figure offer, but a 30% chance of a disaster. That's a no-brainer in my book, because blue/£75k will be nowhere near £50k.


Lee's wife joins him at the stool and then walks back to her seat.


His wife gets up and comes over to him, giving him a kiss and a reassuring hug by the looks of things.


DEAL (thank goodness)


Deal. Well, saw that coming from when he said that the offer was more than he expected it to be.


Box 19 - £500.
Box 18. New guy Robbie. Crazy tan. 50p! Oh my.
Are we going to get the second-best scenario?
Box 14. Terry. 'You know what I'm thinking'. £100! We are!


Prove out time

Box 19 (Dave) £500
Box 18 (Robbie - new guy) 50p
Box 14 (Terry) £100


*stands corrected*

He's gotta be happy with £50k, though.


...Wow.

Offer of around £150k, I expect.


Here we go. £150k offer perhaps?

Noel can't believe it. £160k!


Offer would have been £160,000 !!!!!!!!


Well, when you're dealing with figures above £100k, what's £10k?

ABW, then.


Box had £75,000.


The 30% chance of a disaster was too much.

'£50,000 is a great result' as Noel says.

Is he the third to have £250k?

Nicola opens it. Mary-Ann's daughter revealed the lower of the two values left at the end...

...and so does Nicola. £75k.

Box 6 had the jackpot.


That's 3 days running people have dealt 1 deal too early but with justifiable reasons.


Someone brings out a birthday cake for Noel.


A man wins the viewers competition for the first time in yonks.

And Noel gets a cake!


It's been the week of players taking good deals to find their luck wouldn't have run out after all...


Should be noted that he made the right choice at the wrong time there.

Considering that this was the 10% chance, and the odds of the offer dropping was 60% (since the 75k would only have got an offer of 30kish), with a 30% chance of it completely dieing...

On the other hand, if the offer increased (40% chance, keeping the £250k), it wasn't going to be lower than 100k.


But you have to consider what the offer would have dropped to - no lower than £30k, which is still a lot of money. I would have ben very tempted to risk it, but that's just me.

Thanks chaps!


That's a comprehensive banker win yet again. Good winnings so far this week though.

£109,000 out of a possible £309,000.


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