Well, so far Maliki's guys aren't performing that well and Fadila - the other local Shia major party - is now officially complaining about the assault and the civilian losses.
Kevin was wondering what they would do. Well, that may be a bit the beginning of an answer.
And, as far as I'm concerned, I wouldn't take the most obvious conclusion from Sadr "It's better to negotiate and stop fighting" vs Maliki "I'll get rid of these militias to the bitter end".
I'd rather think it means that Sadr can afford to negotiate on this issue because he's strong enough and that wouldn't weaken him that much, while Maliki has no choice but to try to crush the Sadrists because he has basically no strong card in his hand and has to prove to the other players he can kick ass; pulling back would show the weakness of his troops and would destroy his credibility, so he's now risking to prove to everyone just how weak and underperforming the official Iraqi security forces truly are. (not to mention they are partly infiltrated by other players)
Al-Sadr, according to NPR's sources, was studying to become an Ayatollah, a course of study taht requires far too much of his time and resources to spend fighting. This may have been a contributing factor in the cease fire.
What causes me furiously to think now is what Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani is up to. What is his take on all of this? Will he declare jihad, or try to talk the Shiites down before the war gets any hotter?
for a priescient look at this situation go back through gilly's archives. he saw this exact thing coming. he masterfully used google earth photographs of sadr city and bagdhad to explain how there was simply no way to win there.
the never ending refrain of counterinsurgency commanders and occupation leaders is "they won't stand and fight!" the mahdi army has been fighting petraeus and his remf sycophants for five fucking days. they not only have not ceded one block they have taken control of the city of kut.
it took petraeus two days of biblical bloodbaths to realize that his cease fire was over.
i'm convinced that one of the reasons fallon was fired as centcom is that they knew when this inevitably happened that fallon would can his ass.
I wish Steve was around for this.
No offense intended, but he was the maestro on shit like this blowing up.
Minstrel Hussein Boy - I too remember that post of Gilly's - chilling in it's obvious conclusion
here's a post from roads to iraq - kinda rambling, but concurs with Mr Sonic's post
http://www.roadstoiraq.com/2008/...-basras-battle/
a 2nd American has died from Green Zone shelling
I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Sistani to speak out. (Of course, one could ask him directly by going to www.sistani.org, but that might be too easy.)
Sistani is not overtly political, and has kept his distance all this time. He never met with Bremer or any other American, and I don't think he's met with Maliki either. He is "above it all" and that's unlikely to change.
Sistani is a target. His silence probably has much more to do wit self-preservation than we think.
BTW the death from the air campaign over Basra has already begun. Nothing better than using the natives as the stormtroopers while we rain on death from above in relative safety.
Thassit, Wengler. And nothing more likely to engender white-hot, lifelong, hatred of us; to give the next Owellian "leader" of bush's ilk, the excuse to perpetuate this insanity.
I doubt that Bushco would ever lay a finger (or a bullet) on Sistani.
For one thing, all their efforts in Iraq seem totally aimed at solving short-term domestic problems in the USA, and nobody here has heard of Sistani. If they were going to go after him, they'd demonize him for a couple of weeks ("Did you realize he's Iranian!?!") first.
Sadr, on the other hand, makes for a scary boogeyman on the nightly nooze, and might (in the cracked calculus of Cheney's minions) make a useful scapegoat.
I wonder what would happen if Sistani told them to stop killing each other??
Grey-haired Sistani looks sage-like, as opposed to the younger, swarthy Sadr........ obviously the ultimate villain. I've no idea as to what Sistani's vision is (obviously), but Sadr fits the TV boogeyman very nicely.
If I were to guess, I would say that Sistani is much more interested in being a venerated voice for Shia Muslims worldwide, than being a political figure in Iraq. The only reason he is in Iraq is because southern Iraq is where Najaf and Karbala are located. The sacrifice of the imams Ali and Hussein are the founding cornerstones of Shia Islam and so he is there as a steward of that heritage.
Sadr is a nationalist, has an armed militia movement, and has been consistently opposed to the foreign occupation of Iraq for over five years. I really don't see Sistani getting in the middle of a political fight for control of Basra. It makes no sense for him and what he wants to do to publicly back any side, but rather call for peace.
In the larger scheme of things as the situation deteriorates further and further, Sistani has been largely irrelevant since he last called for Shias to vote heavily in Iraq's elections.
note to matthew saroff:
i simply wish gilly was around period
he was an inspiration, fresh air in a stuffy room.
i loved it especially when the whole blogroll cleansing bullshitstorm was roiling and gilly said "write. then write some more. get. better. write. more."
word gilly.
thanks for this post...HS.
we are so happy you are here, even when we are missing steve.
Maliki going into Basra (and his Mosul operation) are a lot like the Vietnamization program with president Thieu going after the NVA in Cambodia and Laos. Both are/were showcase examples meant to publicize the potential self-sufficiency each army had become as a formidable force to its enemies. Of course in Thieu's case the operations were disasters in that they telegraphed exactly how weak they really were. In Maliki's case, its even worse because he doesn't even have the level of popular support Thieu had in either the poplation or the army, not to mention the many outright enemies Maliki has within his army. At Cheney's prodding, Maliki may make the failed Vietnamization program look like a smashing success.
Run you fools!
At Cheney's prodding, Maliki may make the failed Vietnamization program look like a smashing success.
would that mean that we won there and the gasbags would finally STFU about it?
magic 8 ball sez "unlikely"
I came to the party late. Very late. If anyone has the links to where Gilly was writing about this stuff, I would be utterly grateful.
By their absence one can deduce US forces are finished as combat effective maneuver units. If the Iranian trained flunkies can't punch into Basra ...Game over man.
Steve's Sadr City/Google Earth link
http://stevegilliard.blogspot.co...lity-
check.html
HS ... thank you.
US embassy staff in Baghdad have been told not to leave reinforced structures.
Mission Accomplished
Looking bad for Maliki tonight. Total defeat in Basra, massive crap-flinging in lots of other cities where nobody expected trouble.
Oh, and more shells on the Green Zone, with casualties.
With luck, Maliki will fall quietly and quickly and some other stooge will get put in place.
This Administration has not been lucky.
Where is Army Group Steiner?
Where is Army Group Wenck?
"By their absence one can deduce US forces are finished as combat effective maneuver units"
Well, the Iranians surely are fearing a US ground invasion right now...
By the way, Sadr actually asked Maliki to leave Basra. Considering how well his troops are doing there, I'd expect him to have fled before next morning.
The June Offensives have begun:
"The Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, has moved to Basra, where he is said to be supervising the operation, in which 22 people have been killed and over 100 wounded so far." -Patrick Cockburn, Counterpunch, 27 March 2008
The July Days are just around the corner, and then an October coup. Just in time for our November elections.
Steve had this guy pegged when he made him the successor to Kerensky.
this is the other one some folks are looking for -
where Steve made the Brooklyn analogy
http://stevegilliard.blogspot.co...es-of-
iraq.html
and thank you Mr Sonic and Groupnewsblog - a relief to have you guys out here
Al-Maliki's office also announced Friday that it has given residents in Basra until April 8 to turn over "heavy and medium-size weapons" in return for unspecified monetary compensation.
The deadline has been extended for those of you who haven't gotten around to turning in your RPG's and crew serviced weapons...
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