It is a surprise, but the delegate contest is not going to change radically.
Let's see what happens with the report that some 50 superdelegates may bolt to Obama tomorrow. That will help to offset any gains Clinton made tonight, plus, there will be some "mo" restored to him, if it happens.
I heard that rumor too, but I also heard it wasnt true.
tanbark,
I think Hillary just bought herself a week by winning by a double digit percentage margin in Ohio and a close margin in Texas. I don't think that those 50 superdelegates will declare for Obama tomorrow lest their declaration dampen the victories that Senator Clinton won.
They will wait to declare until after Obama wins Wyoming and Mississippi by significant margins. That six week gap where Obama will be attacking McCain while Clinton and McCain will be hitting Obama with all they got is something that party leaders' nightmares are made of. Clinton might continue after that, but no one will be able to accuse the superdelegates of cutting Hillary off at the legs right when she was mounting a comeback. Hillary Clinton's hardcore support may abandon Obama if this were to happen tomorrow. If you don't believe me go and see the celebration going on at TalkLeft or MyDD. They really have no clue that the delegate apportionment is not going to give their candidate much of an advantage. They will say "we was robbed" even after Obama has won 11 contests in a row.
One week until this thing is put to rest. Hopefully.
I'm surprised that Clinton won Texas. I wonder how many Republicans voted for her at Limbaugh's urging?
Billy Joe,
I think the image of thousands of fat middle aged white Southern men voting for the person that they have hated with a passion over the past decade and a half is well worth whatever half delegate it bought her.
The disquiet in their souls puts a smile on my face.
Well, they'll be voting for McCave in the general (if they vote at all), so I suppose it's not going to mean much anyway.
They voted for a Clinton.
They think that the Clintons are the puppetmasters of a massive conspiracy that has left dozens murdered(if not hundreds) in a mad dash to power.
And what to do with that power? Take away your guns and have the United Nations invade and control the US in a one-world government that burns the bible and bans religion and somesuch.
Limbaugh listeners who listen to him to get information are some of the most certifiably batshit insane people I have ever met. A vote for Hillary is like a stain on them that won't go away.
I think the delegate counts go something like this:
+3 Obama in Vermont
+4 Clinton in RI with one more that might go her way.
+1 Clinton in Texas(source: Burnt Orange Report with a great district guide)
+5-7 Clinton in Ohio(according to Chuck Todd)
And I don't know how the Texas caucus will end up but let's take something like a 55-45 advantage for Obama. If you round down he get 36 delegates to Hillary's 31. So +5 to Obama.
So if you add it all up it is Obama +8 and Hillary +10-12 leading to a net gain of 4 possible delegates for Hillary.
She will lose this net gain easily in the next two contests. I don't think it has really dawned on her supporters that even though she finally won 3 out of 4 contests(or 5 contests), she will only come out with only 2-4 pledged delegates. And it might even turn out to be lower.
I'm sorry, but there isn't much of an argument for her being in this thing after March 11th. Magical thinking about superdelegates and Michigan and Florida isn't going to put Hillary on the road to the White House.
speaking of florida, are they going to re-do their primary, after all?
If they do that is 185 pledged delegates at stake and 25 superdelegates allowed to vote whomever they choose. Hillary could probably get a good net gain out of it of maybe 20 or 30(including superdelegates, but even then it will probably not be enough.
It's my hope that Michigan and Florida both hold re-votes and have their delegations seated. But Hillary supporters are seriously deluding themselves if they think that these delegations will be seated as is if they overturn the outcome of the race.
What we all need to remember is that what is on a lot of these superdelegates' minds who haven't endorsed is how best to unify the party. Howard Dean doesn't care if Hillary wins or Obama wins- he wants the Democratic Party to win in November. I think you will see a push toward Obama starting a week from now that will be respectful of Senator Clinton's wishes, but will pursue the overarching goal of uniting the party around the eventual nominee.
I hope so. I'd vote for either and don't actually mind the drawn out primary season because it's really bringing peoople out, helping state parties get organized and letting people who aren't normally involved (later states) have a real voice. I wish big media would see it that way - I think it's a positive for Dems.
The Michigan & Florida situations are the only thing that sort of worries me. I suppose if it looks like it'll become a protracted conflict, the big guns (Gore, et al) will come out and get Hillary to stand down. At least at this point I assume it would be Hillary standing down.
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