Okay:
Obama will lose in Kentucky but do better than expected, and he will win comfortably, in Oregon.
Clinton by 57-43 in Ky.
And Obama by 55-45 in Oregon.
She gets a net gain of 5 delegates or so, but he comes out of it with that majority of ALL of the pledged delegates that exist.
AND; more superdelegates break for him. If that goes as it should, he could clinch it mathematically within the next few days.
Obama wins decisively (>10% margin) in Oregon, Hillary squeaks by (
[Ok, let's try that again without the accidental tags]
Obama wins decisively (greater than 10% margin) in Oregon, Hillary squeaks by (less than 7% margin) with the "hard-working white voters" of rural Kentucky. She then announces her impending victory for the nomination once again, while her few remaining supporters decry the rampant sexism present in Oregon.
How many GB on the drive, and what kind of sushi? 
obama big in oregon, a Ky suprise indiana like numbers.
Woops. I'm taking a mulligan here on Oregon, Little Gator. :o)
I forgot that Edwards is still on the ballot in Kentucky, and is still expected to get something like 6% of the vote. And, it looks like Hillary's margin will be wider, so:
Clinton-60%
Obama-35%
Edwards-5%
Her pickup then is about 10 pledged delegates, but overall, Obama still get the majority of all of the pledged delegates.
Bottom line: She's done for.
Anything else will simply tear the party apart, and the "leadership" knows it.
And while I'm at it; if Obama is stupid enough and cowardly enough to let the DLC shove her down his throat as VP nominee, in the general, that will cost he/us the support of way more independents and moderate republicans who flat-out despise Hillary than we would get from her scorched-earth Hillary supporters who MIGHT come on board if she's the VP pick.
As good has his decisions have been so far, I can't believe he'd take her.
Hillary doesn't want the VP slot. It won't be the powerful post it was under the Cheney administration, and she can undermine President Obama more effectively from the Senate alongside her new bff, Holy Joe.
I think Tanbark is right
tanbark..look at edwards in WV, he took votors from both some what evenly, a little mreo from hillary then obama...he drives teh race closer.
OTD, I think she might take the VP slot, if Barack would brainfart enough to offer it to her. If she goes back to the Senate, I think Baracks' coattails will be long enough to make her not nearly as powerful as she fantasizes.
There are going to be some new senators coming in who owe her nothing, but who owe Obama, a lot.
Plus, the political climate is shifting back to the middle, from these years of the "patriots", with their god-sanctioned ability to fuck up a two-car funeral. Short of it: Clinton aint gonna be doin' much interfering with President Obama's agenda from her Senate seat. :o)
She's a political beast, and will go along to get along, which is what she's been doing with george bush and the republicans, anyway, the last 7-plus years.
But I don't think the VP offer will come. Obama is way smart enough to know what a liability she will be with independents and the moderate republicans who are sick of george bush, from whom, he WILL get some substantial support.
Also, she and Bill have to be nearly nauseated at the possibility of her going back to the Senate with her unsuccessfully-entitled tail between her legs.
They are about to become a LOT less interesting to the media than they have been for the past few decades, and that is probably the most frightening thing of all, to both of them.
If they were, so to speak, next door to the white house, does anyone think that they would be quietly supportive of Obama and his policies?
I sure as hell don't. There would be a BRIEF honeymoon where they behaved themselves, and then, at least media-wise, they would do everything they could to fashion a co-presidency. And I think Barack Obama is plenty smart enough to know all this.
Moon'; I hope I'm wrong, and you're right. :o)
I dunno...it's kind of tough to call. The democrats in Kentucky may not be as much bitter-enders as those in W. Va. were. Plus, Obama is clearly poised to take it, which is why the supers keep moving to him. After today, he should pick up some more of them, and we're about to the tipping point of a stampede to him.
The Kentucky dems may decide to go with the frontrunner. I sure hope some of them do.
Oops! Is crossing over allowed there? I'm getting REAL tired of Limbaugh, etc., fucking with our primaries.
Decisive win in Oregon by at least 15 if not 20 points. I haven't seen any Clinton ground game in Oregon worth mentioning.
Kentucky breaks for Clinton, but just barely, 47%-45%, with Edwards taking the rest.
sad news for us who grew up with the Kennedy brothers...
BREAKING: Sen. Ted Kennedy diagnosed with malignant brain tumor...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/
20080...tw6B8QMlTis0NUE
Obama wins both. Ky by 1% or 2% and Oregon by 20%.
Also, on the VP. No he will not choose Hillary. He can't. He wants to win and his campaign has farrrrr more smarts than to shoot themselves in the foot like that. He'll tell the dnc to step off should they even attempt to get all "demanding" like that. He'd be right.
Now people are floating this "clinton surrogate" VP bullshit out there too. Frankly, anyone who supported her is automatically disqualified as VP for lack of judgement. I don't care if its Ohio and PA governors, they have fucked up judgement. No Clinton supporter appeasement will be enough for the Clintonistas. We all had better understand that right now. And I think the Obama campaign GETS that at least. Surely he's not so stupid to hobble himself in anyway like that. I do not see that happening at all.
humm hillary is goign to be in florida on the 21?!?!? with a big "suprise"?!?!?! when was obama goign to be in the state? when was gore heading there? LTG give us some news.
Kentucky C 57 O 35
Oregon O 55 C 42
But the focus today will be on Ted Kennedy as it should be.
I had a friend who died at 16 because of a malignant brain tumor.
I've had others die in my life and die suddenly but her death was honestly one of the worst.
She was so young.
All the best to the Kennedy family.
moonglum, Obama's website says that he will be in Tampa FL on the 21st.
Rally with Barack Obama
St. Pete Times Forum
401 Channelside Drive
Tampa, FL
Wednesday, May 21st, 2008
Doors Open: 10:30 a.m.
Program Begins: 12:00 p.m.
Stay Tuned!
hillary clinton will also be in FL on the 21, the FL papers are buzzing with it, but know one knows where she will appear..
common LTG, your in teh loop give us something.
hillary has one schedualed apperance tommarow, near miami around 3:30 pm...Obama is goign to be all over the state....where teh hell is gore again...and what the hell is every one going to FL?????
she actualy acepting that its over??
am i goign to have to admit that I was wro...wro...misilinformed???
Kentucky: Clinton 62 - Obama 33
Oregon: Obama 61 - Clinton 39
The Courage Campaign reports Gore to send a "special" email on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, Al Gore will send a very special email to Courage Campaign members. It's an important message that could help change the conversation in California. We hope you will read it and respond when it arrives in your in-box tomorrow.
I think he'll either endorse or at least acknowledge Obama as THE nominee tomorrow.... in Florida. Hillary will probably announce the agreement to seat the FL delegates and Gore and Obama will be there to begin the general. It'll take the wind out of her sails again I think.
moonglum - "misspoke"..... you forgot the ever popular "misspoke" 
regardless, soemthign is goign down tomarrow, teh back chanels seem to be abuzz
Kentucky: Clinton - 56, Obama - 41, Edwards - 3
Oregon: Obama - 63, Clinton 37
Kentucky: Clinton 59 - Obama 36 - Edwards 5
Oregon: Obama 65 - Clinton 35
I am so sick of hearing Hillary's lame-o-rama after every primary as she falls farther and farther behind. After all the years of supporting and defending the Clintons, I surprise myself with my loathing of them. It is approaching Lieberman levels...
Moonglum, I don't have any inside fla. info. But you are right there is a lot of buzz. we shall see.
More later on which of you prognosticators is the owner of the cool sushi usb flash drive.
sorry to have been so silent in the thread. time zone issues. I posted and then went to sleep.
NO MORE Bets will be taken at the window
Hey, where's my winnings. Using Clinton math, I'm right on the money!!! Fork it over 
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