I need a drink. Another drink, I mean.
The military is the strongest political force keeping out of war in Iran. Congress won't stop the war. The media is making their war graphics now and the EU will only complain.
We need to realize that the military is only force standing up to the Administration and we need to support. It is time to truly support our troops and reconsider our priorities in the Middle East.
Iran is enemies with our enemies. The US and Iran share many strategic goals and would make powerful allies. We need to decide what is more important killing al Qaeda and bring out soldiers home or avenging a the insults of a few Mullahs and their lackies?
Good stuff, jesse, but cut it down in length a bit, OK? This fella's got enough in his addled head already...
just sayin'
And congress just keeps funding the motherfucking war. I am making plans to bug out. Passport's in order, home's for sale. 61 year old vet getting the hell out.
This would be the last ultimate "Fuck You" from Bush and Cheney to the American people and the world. But I don't know if the Fallon resignation automatically puts it into play.
The Bush administration already tried their hand at brinkmanship and all they had was a badly edited in audio of a rogue broadcaster against the backdrop of Iranian speedboats. Poorly played sir, but it did show how both the military can and can't be used as a political tool during this conflict(I believe the captains involved went along with the cover story including the audio.)
The first use of nuclear weapons in Iran is not a tolerable course of action. The Bush regime must fall and fall quickly if ever it were to happen.
Any Democratic Senators that anybody knows of that voted for Kyl/Lieberman?
Invasion of Iran is inevitable.
Now that Fallon is gone, an invasion if Iran will win the pub's the general erection, too.
It's simple shit.
N here we progressives thought, we had a chance.
Not.
Um, invade Iran with what? We don't have enough troops in place to keep Baghdad from blowing up, how are we supposed to secure the rear and invade Iran?
Are we going to have a draft? In that case, it'll be 6 months -- if they start NOW -- before they can fill up ranks.
And with what equipment? We've been pulling war stocks out of storage for years now, and not replacing it...
And what do you suppose happens in Iraq while bombs are going off in Iran?
And you think they are going to drop the hot one?
Listen, if you think oil will keep flowing to the US after a cock-up like that, you really live in bong.
$100/barrel... hah! How about $300 - 500/barrel, since no-one will sell it to us, and we'll have to invade Canada for their oil shale/sands.
And then the rapture will come and take away the faithful!! And everyone else will get ponies that shit diamonds!!
Yeah, I'm with the skeptics on this one. Fallon retired, which means he can trot his Navy ass out in front of the cameras and tell Wolf Blitzer about how insane an attack on Iran would be.
(Caveats about our craven warmongering press corps should go here.)
Still and all: the shit is knee-deep in the Persian Gulf neighborhood already; surely some gentlemen with short haircuts are laying out the reality to Bush & Co., no? We're not invading Iran, no way no how -- no Army.
Bombing Iran, well, I hope not.
And we're all well advised to buy gold and have a valid passport handy.
Meh... Its not Fallon that has been holding DeadEye Dick back, it was the entire pentagon...
I imagine the reply was "with whose army?"
As if having a passport and gold will get you out of the country...
By the time you get finished doing the TSA-strip-a-gram to get to a plane, what countries would be allowing planes from the US to land?
I suggest, IMO, that you get your tin-foil hats ready, and start practicing Bert's Duck & Cover moves...
just saying...
ceabird:
By the time you get finished doing the TSA-strip-a-gram to get to a plane, what countries would be allowing planes from the US to land?
Who said anything about planes? They probably won't be flying if Operation Iranian Blowback gets started. No, no planes. Think land or sea -- Blaine, WA, or Tijuana. Canada and/or Mexico can be very nice this time of year.
stickler... so everyone lines up on the Mexican/Canadian border waiting for the balloon to go up?
Why not just paint ourselves white to reflect the (retaliatory) nuclear flash?
And what about the zombies? What are we going to do to protect us from the zombies?!?
You know, when I was in college the first Mad Max film came out. A dystopian future where gas is prohibitively expensive, society is horribly violent, and the police just do whatever it takes.
I never saw it then, though I knew its reputation as a vision of a horrific future. I got the Netflix a few months back, started watching it, and thought, "Wait a minute. This movie is showing ... today...."
I'm not suggesting an invasion.
I don't think an invasion was ever in the cards.
I think the plan is for standard bombing air-drops from the Christ-loving Air Force intending to do what is not possible -- take out the sites which Cheney's stove-piped intel claims has Iranian nuclear materials. And for a few tactical nukes to hit the hard sites the bombs can not penetrate.
The intel claims Iran is making / has nukes.
a) it doesn't.
b) if it does, it is years, many many years from being ready to assemble.
c) the Iranians have been showing through every back-channel possible, they want to work with us, they want to be moderates.
Because Iran is becoming moderate, is why Cheney has to bomb them. Otherwise, how can he justify keeping troops in Iraq in order to hold on to the OIL for the next 20-30 years.
Owning the OIL is the whole point.
There is no plan to invade Iran. Just blow the shit out of it and set the Middle East ablaze.
That will force our soldiers to retreat to their big forts and hunker down, making the U.S. believe in them in a fury of patriotic fervor.
Send gold through the roof.
Send oil through the roof.
Keep the Republicans in power for four years, and by then, Cheney will be so old and sick he won't care. Cheney is a sociopath, so he doesn't give a FUCK what happens after he's gone. He especially doesn't care what happens to Bush except perhaps to take pleasure in the thought of Bush standing trial for war crimes (and Bush doesn't think that far ahead. He talks more about his own death than any President I've ever heard. He truly believes his own insanity. Cheney obviously knows better.)
Cheney believes by starting World War III, he can secure the U.S.'s hold on oil for the next 20 years. He thinks we'll be forced to re-arm and re-militarize as a nation in order to defend ourselves against a world attacking us for what he (Cheney) ordered Bush to do to Iran.
Cheney may be right. NO ONE will forgive us if we use nuclear weapons. And having the Pacific and Atlantic between us and most of the rest of the world, will not help, not now in the world of biologicals, nanotech, and high-speed delivery vehicles. Or just an international FedEx with a hidden payload.
Germany sinned against an entire race and a religion, and against all of Europe and much of Asia. They are still paying the price and will be for centuries, although they are welcomed back into society and allowed to contribute. They are forgiven, but what they did will not be forgotten for thousands of years.
If we attack Iran, we will have sinned against roughly one-eighth of the world via a religious sin. The potential consequences are unfathomable. The crime would destroy the United States. Rome fell, and we would also.
Well, I did become concerned with Cheney heading over. And with the McBush/Liarman ticket going for "meet the new leaders" tour next week. I'm thinking hillary will try to go with.
All they need to do is present the appearance of doing iran.... which is what they're doing. Probably getting ready to roll out the new terr terr fear fear campaign with some doctored papaerwork and the mclie team will report this upon their return. True or not it will take the focus from the dems, force them to go right with the dlc candi and streeeeeetch this out for the 50.
Yep, that's the rally plan like you say. They don't have to drop anything at all or invade either ..... just do what they always do. Scare talk. Week after next.
A story about the firing Admiral Fallon isn't complete without a reference to General Eric Shinseki!
Remember, "Shinseki told the Senate Armed Services Committee that he thought an occupying force of several hundred thousand men would be needed to stabilize postwar Iraq"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eri...i/
Eric_Shinseki
He got fired, and the US tried to secure Iraq with about 150000 troops (we know now what a great idea this was).
So, more evidence to believe that Fallon was kicked out because his stance was contrary to what the Bush administration wants to do.
Um, OK.
What makes you think we could nuke Iran and have any allies in left in the Persian Gulf?
I know the Iranians are Persians, not Arabs, but they will most likely be seen as muslim martyrs.
The Saudis are already having trouble keeping control, this will lose it. Jordan will go, the Gulf States will go, and any chance of US controlling ANY of that oil, would be like protecting yourself from a nuclear blast with a newspaper.
I expect better writing and arguments from writers on The Group News Blog.
"Invasion of Iran is inevitable."
Invasion? Huh? Better check some facts, before making such assumptions! The most basic fact:
Iraq, 27 million people
Iran, 65 million people
(2007 est.)
https://www.cia.gov/library/
publi...trylisting.html
See, that's why Saddam couldn't win in the 1980s war, even with support from the US. Remember?
So, I'm with the folks here who ask: With what army???
"What makes you think we could nuke Iran and have any allies in left in the Persian Gulf?"
Hmm, as far as I see, it's not Jesse who thinks that, but he believes the Bush administration may be thinking this. And we all know they live in a bubble. All dangerous nutcases...
"Welcome back my friends/To the show that never ends/We're so glad you could attend/Come inside, come inside"
Look, Jesse is right here is saying the Bush administration is fucking nuts. These fuckers didn't even care that they didn't find so-called WMDs in Iraq. They just laughed it off and chummed it up with their buddies is the press corps. They need war like a shark needs to keep moving to survive. The more war the better. The more shit blowing up all around the world, the more money they are making and the better they feel about their worldview.
I personally think that they won't go nuclear, BUT they will attempt to engineer some massive bombing campaign. If you read any Sy Hersh in the last 5 years you know that his sources in the military tell of an immense amount of intentional provocation against Iran, all in an attempt to get them to light up their radar systems. It is extremely hard to start something like this without anyone noticing, and so enters the carrier groups. You can't fly B-52s off of carriers though, hence Jesse's speculation of nuclear weapons being a force multiplier or a weapon to use against buried facilities. I think that the attack would be a combined destroyer cruise missile/naval based fighter-bombers/and sub based cruise missiles.
It would largely be ineffectual, would probably kill a lot of people and send international markets reeling, and that is only the start. We would lose ships. The image of a US carrier on fire will push the people to patriotic fervor and once again the dissenters will be targeted. This administration is most content when they have their boots on the throats of their enemies and their enemies won't include just politicians anymore but ordinary citizens. The same citizens that they have been able to wiretap and intercept all electronic communications from for the past six years.
I would like to think that the military would stop them, but let's be honest here, the brass has been severely compromised by seven years of this administration. The competent people were forced out and the loyalist toadies stayed on and gained more power. General Betrayus doing hatchet work like a political operative would is fucking disgusting. I don't see anyone on the carriers refusing to load bombs on planes either. If Bush gives it a go...it is a go.
Fuck this shit. Bush should've been impeached last year.
ceabaird -
I said that if we nuked Iran, it would set the Middle East on fire.
I put it in Bold font.
Where in that do you get that I think, we have any hope of controlling the oil?
I said that Cheney wants a political victory in the United States, due to a Mid East war, $10 gas, no war crimes for him or Bush due to President McCain, and the entire U.S.A. so scared they're shitting themselves.
Nuking Iran would do it, and I think there is a decent chance of it happening, for many reasons.
Am I convinced it will happen? Of course not. Do I believe it could happen?
Bet your ass.
Everyone...
PLEASE don't put words in my mouth I didn't say. I didn't say that the invasion of Iran was inevitable. I didn't say we'd control jack if any of this happened.
I did say Cheney had a reasonable chance of accomplishing what I see as his goals, if he does this.
Including getting oil to pop up to around $300 a barrel. So everyone is clear, it doesn't matter if the U.S. is cut off from the Mid East oil, or even if Chavez cuts us off. Someone will sell us oil, at spot-market prices. What counts to Cheney (who is a stooge for the Oil Companies) is driving the price of oil UP UP UP so that the economic costs for extracting every last damn barrel are worth it.
The more oil costs, the more profit can be made off current reserves, the more sense it makes to sink wells into previously unprofitable locations which have known reserves. If it costs $100/bbl to extract the oil, then the oil is worthless today, at $109/bbl, as the cost of building the extraction infrastructure would mean the oil companies would lose probably $20 per barrel. But if they can drive the cost up to $300/bbl with WWIII over the Middle East, then it's $100/bbl in the ground due to the location, plus $25/bbl for infrastructure. But because they got Dick Cheney to throw them a World War they profit $175 per BARREL and they have billions, literally billions of barrels of oil at those prices, just waiting to be pumped out of the earth.
All it costs, truly, all it costs, is for the earth to be drenched in blood and fire via a big enough war to drive up oil's price.
Why in the FUCK do you think we're at war already?
Don't you understand? The Bush/Cheney administration's JOB has been to take over Iraq and DRIVE UP THE PRICE OF OIL. It was roughly $25/bbl when they came into office. (From memory; not precise.) Seven years later, it is more than four times that, and growing. Throw in war with Iran and in the last year of their Presidency, they could make it Eight to Twelve Times where they started.
Just gotta roll the hard-seven.
The only way this works if it's accompanied by a single dictatorial power grab. I don't have your faithlessness in the American electorate this time out -- shit blows up in Iran, and I lay you odds McCain LOSES by 10-15%. As much as there are a bunch of retards out there who want to see brown people fry, there are a FUCK of a lot more people who are sick as shit of the Republicans and everything they stand for.
plus $10 gasoline
When that happens, the people will build guillotines and the power elite will realize their mistake too late. Blackwater notwithstanding. People with nothing to lose make excellent angry mobs.
If Bush nukes Iran, getting out of the USA won't help you much. Or do you think there would be many countries that wouldn't consider every single US citizen as co-responsible in such a crime, and that wouldn't round up all Americans and put them in concentration camps before expelling them, or worse depending on the country?
And depending on how bad things go in Iran, terrorist attacks might be a lesser worry than Russian or Chinese involvement; they have nukes, too.
Still, I'm not yet convinced there will be war, even a conventional bombing one.
I am very hopeful I am wrong.
And would be quite happy to be wrong about this prediction.
In the meantime, I am updating children's vaccination records, and so on. Everything necessary to travel.
Fallon's departure was a big story on Australian TV news where they extensively quoted the Esquire article. The next news story was about the state department suddenly and without giving a reason, taking China off the list of countries that are human rights violators. I wonder if there is a connection here, "we give you this plus maybe some other stuff if you promise to be quiet when the time comes."
Those Dogs Of War look to me to be sporting Neuticles.
Only 2 little bothersome details prevent a US war with Iran.
Russia & China.
One has America's fiscal ass securely in its back pocket. The other has a newly revamped military & growing nationalism.
Both have declared via binding treaties their allegiance to Iran, & have pledged to strike back at any aggressor that attacks it. I don't recall those agreements having an "air-strikes-only" opting-out clause.
Cheney is indeed bugfuck-crazy, but he's not retarded. He's also a guy that hates to lose, ever. He knows that in the current situation, the US will get its ass handed to it if it tries going up against BOTH Russia & China. Never mind that such a move would cue the newly-armed Iraqi militia up to try pushing the occupation-force out for good. The USAF is simply stretched much too thin now, & even a draft can't solve that. Not enough requisitions either.
Irony most grotesque: the war in Iraq has functionally neutralized the prospect of a much worse one with Iran - there's literally no means left to stategically defend the homeland if they were to attempt it.
Fallon stepping down is unfortunate, but hardly apocalyptic. There are much easier ways to boost oil-prices ... like keeping the number of refineries low.
I think that horseshit with the Mighty Speedboats Of Death was both a gambit & a trial-balloon ... & it went down like the Hindenburg. That was likely the best shot they had, & it was, um, well, torpedoed within circa 48 hours - the Net just makes it SO much harder to pull a good PR scam anymore.
I just don't think they have any more slick tricks left at this point, or even crude-yet-viable ones. Soon the sand's going to drain out the tail-end of the hourglass, & then it's going to be LearJet-to-Paraguay time.
But hey, if I'm wrong - come on up.
The weather IS mild right now.
Just remember: if you make it here, you're going to be hearing the phrase "what the fuck were you people thinking" ... a lot.
I don't think China will be bought off so cheapyl, and I wonder what Bush is promising Russia, the other big player certain to object.
Admiral Fallon's resignation could be just what it looks like, which is one man having enough of masturbatory war talk and deciding he doesn't want any part of it, whether it leads anywhere or not, and wanting the freedom to speak on it as a civilian.
Bush & Cheney will certainly ratchet up the tension through the year, not necessarily to bomb Iran, but to help McCain and help Hillary (same thing).
Jesse, by all means, update your kids' vaccinations, but, er, remember to breathe!
Another take: Fallon is stepping down to stop the war. He didn't resign, he's retiring at the end of March. Believe it or not, he's giving his 2 week notice (Didn't know high ranking folks could only give 2 weeks--a bit of a giggle for me).
And so, on April 1, Fallon can go on every news show in sight to blab about what he knows. Unless the military can start the bombing runs in the next 2 weeks, which I think is doubtful, retiring looks like a good option if you're trying to stop a war.
Worrisome to be sure, but NOT the land of Dr. Strangelove quite yet.
I don't think bush will do Iran, unless he can convince:
Wall St.: that $150 ppb for oil will be beneficial to the world economy.
The Pentagon: that things are so hunky in Iraq that they need to find out what the Iraqi Shia will do if bush starts bombing the Iranian Shia.
Gordon Brown: that the remaining 4200 Brits hunkered down behind the wire at the Basra Airport, are bored, and need something to do.
The rest of the mid-east: That ginning up clusterfuck #2, in which to enfold clusterfuck #1, will be "surgical" and won't have any effect on them at all.
Iran has Majlis and Presidential elections coming up, and our Dear Leader's favorite bete noir (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for those playing at home) is in a peck of trouble. The commons dislike him because of the moribund economy and high fuel prices, and the Supreme Council - the real wielders of power in Iran - dislike his overheated rhetoric.
There's even been a rumble or two about imposing a term limit on the Supreme Leader, since Ayatollah Khamenei's held the post since about 1989.
If Cheney wants to bomb Iran, he'll try to do it before those elections; if not, it most likely will not happen. Now, Bush can queer the pitch just as he did in the last Iranian elections, using the power of his Almighty Foot-in-Mouth to get Ahmadinejad elected, but the Iranians may not rise to the bait this time around.
http://whaven33884.blogspot.com/
...experience.html
bjacques,
I did not mean to say that this would be enough to satisfy the Chinease, but that maybe Bu$h thinks that this and maybe a few other baubles would be enough.
i thing every parent with draft age kids and younger would turn against the repubs in the general if they tried this. i would hope there would even be a Spain dynamic at work. people are tired of war when things are wrong at home.
bush attacks iran an i see martial law in the states, and most likely armed rabelion.....things get ugly every where fast as americans show the world that we had no part in THIS crime.
have any of the skippers now in the gulf or heading to the gulf contemplated these batshit monsters would indeed sacrifice them for a gulf of tonkin in a pico second ???
I pray to any deity listening that Hubris Sonic is correct
Cry Havoc!
" I don't think bush will do Iran, unless he can convince:
Wall St.: that $150 ppb for oil will be beneficial to the world economy.
The Pentagon: that things are so hunky in Iraq that they need to find out what the Iraqi Shia will do if bush starts bombing the Iranian Shia.
Gordon Brown: that the remaining 4200 Brits hunkered down behind the wire at the Basra Airport, are bored, and need something to do.
The rest of the mid-east: That ginning up clusterfuck #2, in which to enfold clusterfuck #1, will be "surgical" and won't have any effect on them at all."
Given all the big-time power players who have a lot to lose in the event of a hare-brained attack on Iran, it's possible that if one were near happening, Cheney's pacemaker would have a sudden attack of patriotism and conscience, and then perhaps Bush would conveniently be seen in public raving drunk with a bottle in his hand (or possibly just felled by the bullet of a "lone nut;" I'm sure the Saudis would be happy to lend one to Poppy, who may well be pushed to his breaking point with his idiot son if this mess seems in danger of going forward) Granted, this mis-administration is basically one giant control fraud and has filched a lot of power, but there are too many people with too much to lose, and the means to do something about it, from such an attack.
I also think that the image of 150,000 soldiers and marines getting cut off and decimated will ultimately not be good for the Bush Gang and their McBush successor; after the initial rush of patriotism, people will turn against the idiots who stupidly brought about the greatest American defeat, ever.
Look, lets get one thing straight, if Dick and Dubs implement a draft they better hope Crawford can layout landmines, because there will not be a place in this country (except maybe Utah) that will be safe for them to go. Nam was one thing, we live in the post-McVeigh era now, and if we go nuclear, or there's a draft I seriously, think the Admin better be ready for what will come.
One other thing--I just went over to Informed Comment to get Dr. Cole's perspective (nothing against you Jesse, but I really hope he's right and you're wrong--as do you):
"Secretary of Defense Robert Gates denied Tuesday that the abrupt resignation of Admiral William Fallon as CENTCOM commander indicates an imminent war against Iran. I think Gates's denial is credible. There is no sign of an American war on Iran, which would involve key positioning of warships, materiel and troops. There is no congressional mandate for such a thing, despite the non-binding Kyl-Lieberman resolution in the senate. A provocation is not out of the question, but it would be a risky move in an election year and could easily backfire on the Republican Party (ask Aznar in Spain).
My guess is that the real reason for moving Fallon out is not Iran but Iraq, and that he is being made to step down for the same reason that Donald Rumsfeld was. He does not agree with the long-term troop escalation or 'surge' in Iraq. He doesn't believe that counter-insurgency will work in Iraq in the medium term. And as an admiral, he has his eye on potential trouble spots such as Taiwan and North Korea, and is frustrated that the hands of the US are tied as long as it is bogged down in the Iraq quagmire.
Having such a big dissenter as CENTCOM commander is inconvenient for the Republican Party at a time when John McCain is admitting that if he fails to convince the American people that the surge is succeeding, he will lose the presidency. That is, Fallon may have run afoul not of Cheney on Iran but McCain on Iraq. This may be Bush's first favor to the Republican nominee, who after all had a career as a naval officer himself."
Jessie:
I really wish that the ghost of Steve G would come by and slap you senseless.
I've had it with the Bush Locuta, Causa Finita doctrine. From the Florida vote in 2000 onwards Bush has had done absolutely done nothing but bluff and use his winnings to bluff again. His hands have been progressively more lousy and all he's done is bluff harder. At this point the only thing backing up his bluffs is the contention that he won last time. That and the division of his opponents.
Every time we say "Bush is going to get what he wants and we'd better respond by stockpiling food, gold and guns." We concede, and buy into the worst libertarian fantasies as well.
Every morning we should do a dead stop , switch off the fear gland, and think things through:
* The Iraq war is more unpopular than Vietnam ever was.
* The economy is bad and the Republicans are completely responsible.
* Domestic spying is violently unpopular.
* High gas prices never bode well for an administration.
We are at a tipping point, but fear and isolation have held us back.
Fuck fear and fuck going it alone. We stick to our guns, we fight back, and we never go down without a fight, and we do it together.
If you want to give up and go it alone , whimper in a corner clasping your guns and your gold, don't blog about it!
Just remember: if you make it here, you're going to be hearing the phrase "what the fuck were you people thinking" ... a lot.
My reply: "I told them they shouldn't do it, but nobody ever listens to me because I work at the grocery store and stuff."
'No one including their parents and the Draft Board has ever told these folks "NO" and made it stick.'
I hear the rest of the message and, much as I dislike it, I can't disagree with your analysis. Please take no offense, but it just makes me miss Steve all the more to see what else he would suss out. I'll just never be able to get out of my head his comments about any move on Iran being the signal for the majority Shia in Iraq to move on Americans in Iraq. Does the name "Little Big Horn" ring a bell to anyone else?
But I wanted to thank you for validating this thought that I've been having for years, particularly regarding W 'hisself'. I thought it sad in 2004 that the people of the US (and really, the whole damn world) were going to have to finish the job of raising him, but we weren't and haven't been able to tell him "no" either.
Captain C:
That makes me feel somewhat relieved. Juan Cole knows what he's talking about WRT the Middle East.
That said, having your passport ready is always a good idea with this bunch in power!
One more thing: With Dr. Cole's comments in mind, I would go so far as to say that the economy seems much more likely to be the thing that has a major impact on the lives of News Blog readers. The whole thing really has become a leveraged-to-the-max house of cards that could collapse all over the dining-room floor as soon as the dog barks too loudly or something like that. That $200G the Fed pumped into the financial system yesterday that momentarily goosed the stock market the way it did was a move of pure desperation unlikely to have any real long-term helpful effect, and it may even make things worse in the long term.
This whole thing is ridiculous. Even if we were to beat Iran to smitherians. What about the long term effects of this war?
It amazes me that this administration has the gull to criticize countries like Russia and China for building their military? Well what the hell do they expect. It's not like there isn't some hyperpower going around attacking in many ways defensless countries. More and more, I also want out, and I'm not sure I even want to remain on the same continent. Australia seems like a very nice country.
http://whatsgoingon-bekalynn.blo...n.blogspot.com/
bekalynn: be carful, the ausie right is even worse then the american right....it seems to be a nice country..hope your white.
as a note. remebmer the iranians have soem fancy chinese torpedos and cruse missles up in teh mountians...if we bomb them we lsoe a carrier....i don't think that woudl bode well for the president who let that happen.
Moonglum, wiki the Russian-built "Shkvall" antiship torpedo. Iran has those in their arsenal. As far as I know, there is no defense against these weapons.
Well, I'm sure Bush and Cheney would love to drop a few bombs on Iran, but I don't see it helping McCain into the White House.
People are already sick of the war, and expanding it ain't gonna make 'em more likely to love it.
A few remarks concerning what I have just read.
People, Jesse isn't talking about a ground invasion.
He's talking about a bombing campaign.
Remember the sort of braggarts that have run the Air Force since Curtis E. LeMay did his absolute level best to precipitate World War III? These morons have never gotten it through their thick skulls that you cannot win a war without boots in the ground ramming the point home with rifle barrels. Vietnam taught them nothing. The visible failure of "Shock and Awe" taught them nothing.
I think that what Jesse is saying is that the Air Force has told Cheney they can win this thing from the air. And Jesse figures that either Cheney believes this arrogant crock of shit or else he doesn't give a damn.
Whether Jesse's hunch about Fallon's resignation (if that's what it was) is right or wrong, it has been my belief for several years now that calving the Air Force off from the Army, as a separate service with it's own mission, was a serious mistake.
I think we can probably forget about Chinese nukes, unless Chinese territory is itself seriously violated. China's nuclear deterrent is just that. It has too small a total number of deliverable weapons to consider expending them in any less grave extreme. Even if they didn't have to worry about an American second strike, which they would be compelled to do.
China's financial leverage strikes me as much more liable to be used against us. As does their community of cybercrooks, carefully protected as they are for just such a trial of strength by the PLA. Though economic countermeasures would have a blowback all their own. An economic one.
I think we can forget about Russia's "revamped" military as well. They are less able to effectively project power past their own borders than the Soviet Union was in 1985. The major limiting factor, as I reckon it, would be lack of the sort of economy that would be needed to back up such a power projection more than a month or two.
Russia's ability to supply some country close to it with modern soldier-proof infantry weapons bulks much greater in my own personal threat estimate.
They're doing that now, and making a nice little profit at it to boot. Just think of the vast delight with which the Putin regime would send shipping containers full of AT-14s and RPG-29s to Iranian and Iraqi and, by that time, Pakistani insurgents. Just about any other credible Russian government would do the exact same thing, for that matter.
The old Russian soldiers would remember Mi-24s being shot out of the Afghan skies, in their hundreds, by CIA-supplied Stingers 20 years ago. And they'd cheer themselves hoarse.
But we might see US Navy units in or near the Persian Gulf get very very roughly handled indeed. Anybody here read Gary Brecher's recent take on how that'd play out?
For those of you who never read the old News Blog, Steve predicted a whole scenario for what happens in the event of an attack on Iran. At some point it even included an Iranian invasion of Iraq.
We have to think of mentality here however. And the Bush/Cheney mentality has been very preventive in its outlook. Meaning they want to prevent Iran from ever having the capacity to project power anywhere in the world. This is the same doctrine that they applied to Iraq before the invasion. This is the type of doctrine that says it makes sense for Germany to invade Poland cause those dang Polish had power by even being sovereign.
At this point they have ten months to bomb Iran. But how to do it? They don't have the evidence, nor the manufactured evidence this time around. They don't have the benefit of the doubt like so many people gave them on Iraq. So let's create an international incident. The moment the British sailors were captured could have been that moment but even Blair couldn't swallow war over that. The speed boat video was poorly executed so they couldn't bomb over that either.
What to do? How to do it? Right now they are planning the bombing campaign but they also are thinking about how to sell it. They need a bloody shirt. They need a dead body. They have tried to make every IED in Iraq have Iranian fingerprints all over it. If they can manufacture an incident in Iraq where a substantial number of US soldiers are killed then their threshold for bombing Iran will have been met. This is what everyone needs to look out for. When it happens you will know what I am talking about.
Jesse, I'm sure that as soon as the Saudis got wind of ANY tendency on the part of the dick & bush to go nulklear, they made a quick call to the white house, re: "hey dick, shut the fuck up"
Your rants about how cheney et al WANT the price of oil to go thru the roof ignores one important fact:
The middle east is where the oil is at. Do you think for one minute that they'd let Mobil, Exxon, BP, or ANY western oil company to retain control of their oil?
Nationalization is a muthafucker, bitch.
Sooo, the grand plan of bushdick to make lots of money by nuking Iran falls flat on it's flaccid, quivering, drool-stained face.
Coz, there are a lot of countries out there (cough, cough, china) that would be willing to donate euros, dollars, gold, whatever, to the middle east for their oil.
With no more obligation than "don't sell to the US" -- no PLA troops on their soil, no bases, no outrageous demands, and all just business.
Which the Chinese understand -- bushdick do not.
ceabaird (and others) -
The argument I'm making is that Bush/Cheney WANT the price of oil to rise.
If they can get oil to go from its current roughly $100/b to say, $300/b due to WWIII, then yes, we lose our second largest source of supply, Saudi Arabia at 1,675 Thousand Barrels per Day in Dec-07.
Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration - Crude Oil and Total Petroleum Imports Top 15 Countries
But losing our Middle East imports to China, simply drives prices further up, which is the point. It isn't as if we won't be able to buy oil on the market elsewhere. (And shared pain at the national level, will drive the country into the arms of the President, if spun properly.) Higher prices means Texaco and shares of Shell Oil sell for VASTLY more than they do now. Why? Not just because they can charge $10 per gallon of gas. But because all their reserves around the world which up till now were worthless due to extraction costs, are suddenly worthwhile, and instead of having to move the world to wind and solar and geothermal, the world can stick with oil for another bloody dirty ugly 20-30 years, propped up by the U.S. Air Force turning into glass anyone who fucks with us.
This is the plan.
This is why the Supreme Court refused to let ANYONE see the results of Dick Cheney's meeting with the Oil Industry executives in 2000, BEFORE 9/11 happened, when all this was laid out. No... not the 9/11 attack. I'm not suggesting that; don't even go there. But the plan for taking over Iraq has been in motion since 1998 at least.
Attacking Iran is just more of the same, and if you think there's any chance these assholes are going to leave The White House without doing so -- given the slightest chance...
I hope I am wrong. I hope I am so wrong. I hope this is considered the biggest mistake I've ever put down on electrons.
However, if there is one thing I have come to realize in seven years of watching with increasing horror, the crimes and sins of the Bush/Cheney administration, it is this: they believe they have permission from God (or in Cheney's case, as a sociopath, he more or less thinks he is God) to do anything they want, regardless of the law. They only pay attention to the law enough to keep their crimes hidden, and not so much, anymore as they've come to realize no one is stopping them. As their term in office is ending, they're trying to execute a legal cover-up as well, to make sure they don't ever get tried in the future. As hopeless as a cat covering up on a wood floor. Their crimes and what they're willing to do are beyond the wildest imaginations I had, seven years ago.
Yes, I genuinely do believe, nuking a country to cause a political advantage in the U.S., and to give an economic boost to his buddies and their stocks, is completely within Cheney's abilities, and that he can sell it to Bush and Bush will sign off as part of his grand, given from God to be judged by history later, destiny.
These two will commit ANY crime. They are evil to their core. They are madmen, and they have lost touch with reality as you and I know it.
I pray and hope I am wrong.
In the meanwhile, I write. And am seriously preparing my family for true trouble.
At times like this, I find a quote from my favorite sci-fi series rather appropriate:
The avalanche has already started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote.
- Ambassador Kosh, Babylon 5, "Believers"
Um, Jesse -- how long do you think our reserves in Alaska and the Gulf can last?
We are in a big hole, and wishing won't make it change.
1/2 daily imports are from OPEC @ 5 million bb/day.
Our largest single supplier is Canada @ 1 million bb/day
Our daily consumption is 20 million bb/day
Saudi Arabia is the world's top producer; the US is the world's top consumer.
No oil means=birds, tanks, choppers, humvees, bradleys, strykers, 113s, destroyers, aircraft carriers don't move
repeat - US affiliated oil companies would be cut off from any fields outside the US, and while oil prices inside the US increase, they stay lower everywhere else.
All the associated economic repercussions follow: food, transportation costs go thru the roof, and the US economy collapses.
bushdick *may* end up with lots of dollars, but they may as well be confederate, for all the value they will have.
And what makes you think US citizens will be welcome outside the US once we nuke another country?
So stop this mewling, chickenlittle, mcnuggets-are-people crap. Nukes? Not going to happen. We may as well be worrying about a meteor impact - much more likely, and more deadlier.
Take off the tinfoil hats -- bushdick want you to wear them...
I said invasion, I meant bombing my bad, goin nuke with it, too.
Will be the WORST mistake in history, and speed our decline and hasten the breakup of The States.
Well, second worst, to the elections of BoyKing.
We mighta had a chance as a country and middle class had he not been elected. But they done raided the chickenhouse, and there's not much left but straw.
They will take military action on Iran, start a war, cuz that's what they do. Bad economy? Worst potential since The Crash? Legacy fading? Start a war. It's the patriotic thing to do.
Bomb them back to the stone age. That's the modus, and the operendi, all along, whot?
I just don't see these guys and their backers goin out quietly.
ceabaird -
Your line alone where you suggest that oil prices in the U.S. would go way up, and stay down everyone else, shows you don't understand how world oil markets work.
The spot oil price is roughly the same, world wide, minus transport costs. When an oil refinery in Mexico catches on fire and will be off-line for six months -- a refinery which normally feeds oil to the U.S. -- oil prices in London and China go up.
There is ONE WORLD PRICE FOR OIL. Plus shipping costs, which don't account for much in the large picture.
That is how OPEC works. That is why OPEC works.
And yes, I do think the rest of the world is quite capable of distinguishing between two madmen in The White House and the rest of us. After all, they were elected the first time by less than 50% of the popular vote (and only stole the vote in Florida by getting the Supreme Court to order the votes to stop being counted), and the second time they yet again stole the vote, this time in Ohio.
If this country is being attacked and people leave to save their families, I expect other countries will accept refugees. Because most other countries, unlike our own State Department, are able to appreciate nuance.
I'm done with this conversation.
OK, when a country is isolated economically and politically, prices within that nation rise, irrespective of what those prices may be anywhere else in the world -- common economic fact.
As someone who has lived outside the US, in a number of different countries, dropping the hot one on a country will be A LOT different than a mere invasion. So your "I'll just traipse off to Canada, and pooh-pooh the US from there," shows incredible naiveté.
Sorry, but we're dealing with a WORLD of difference here, and there will be a HUGE global outlash against the US -- the government and her citizens.
FACT.
And you raised this entire conversation -- don't run away now.
They will bomb Iran if you let them. We got our own country in the middle east now and at least 7 client states to protect(Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain). Iranian influence is HUGE in our 51st state and all of our client states have their reasons for opposing Iranian influence.
The only way Bush/Cheney know how to lessen someone's influence is to chop their heads off. They are fucking oil men. The worst, scummiest SOBs this world can produce. They will cheat you, rob you and then laugh at you as they kick you while you are down. If you have something they want, ownership rules don't exactly apply. It's theirs, they just need to figure out how to get it.
wengler -- except that the guys pulling dick & george's strings, the Saudis, know that pulling a shithouse stunt like that - even on the Shia Iranians, will cause massive shockwaves in their own country (fellow muslims against the crusaders), and they like being in power, thank you very much.
If they have to sell unka dick and his hopalong sidekick george down the river to save their skins, it'll just be "Sorry. You understand, this is just business."
Cause if dick thinks he's a tough bastard, the members of the House of Saud have his fucking number.
Just as "Pootie-poot" Putin has had georgies ever since he met him. Putin's personally broken better men than georgis, you can count on that.
iran gets nuked after primary season
ends in june.bush/cheney will will use
this incident to impose martial law and cancel the 2008 elections extendi
ng there term in office.
patrick donahue
washburn,maine 04786.
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