Sadr's cease fire for the last year is the only reason the so called surge has meant less violence. Oh yeah, and total ethnic segregation and walls and don't forget pay day for the Sunnis.
Osama is laughing, alot.
Sadr is playing the long game and playing it well. There have been many moments where he has been on the brink of total destruction, but he squeezed out of it. He was even able to place himself in the ruling coalition while also being outside the system enough to be untainted by the association.
I think that enough Americans have been killed in the Green Zone lately to make Sadr's point perfectly clear. That point being "I can hit you where it hurts so do not fuck with me or else I will do this every single day until you leave".
Sadr's militia is not going to engage in any major offensive operations until the US leaves. And at that time he will probably have to coordinate it to be nationwide to overcome the potential of US airstrikes.
AP's analysis in this article is of course flawed. It may not be Pickler but it sure reads like one. Retaliatory action will be engaged in and people will be killed as a result of this. Sadrists attacked the office of the Vice President last time. Control of Najaf is important for its religious value for any Shia politician. I severely doubt the ability of the Badr Corps to effectively suppress any Sadrist response.
typo first sentence... one of these times... not "on"
Is it just me or does it feel like the clock is ticking in Iraq..
Then when it strikes midnight we get to the Oh, Shit! moment?
oh, and its about 11.54pm.
I hardly doubt any Sunni was responsible for this hit.
More likely it was a US backed Shia/Maliki hit.
They are trying to rage up Al Sadr so he will will go full tilt boogie militant, and then they have (read USA) a reason to wipe out by air, nuke or not, any Al Sadr presence.
I don't think Al Sadr will blink. Nor rage up.
Not till it serves him, purpose.
But when he does, USA will suffer, mightily.
Out now, while we can. OR it's another Dien Bien Phu, and we are slaughtered as we are surrounded, as the French were. Then.
Harumph.
we better hope now
not... not!... stupid fnigers
A Dien Bien Phu Moment is not likely to arrive - I can't see General Odierno eating a grenade the day he loses two of his three artillery positions, for example. What I do see is the fighting withdrawal that Gilly foresaw, a la the Chosin Reservoir in Korea. A long, tough slog, in enemy territory, fighting every step of the way.
As for the "Oh, Shit" Moment, we've had a boatload of them over the past 5 years, and we'll probably see many more before this sorry business comes to its conclusion.
Yeah, Steve (lord I miss that guy!) called this for Al Sadr years ago; and his analysis still shows true:
Moqtada Al Sadr, despite the "radical anti-American cleric" bullshit from the American propaganda arm, is the closest thing to a true statesman Iraq has at this time.
He alone has the social capital to unite Iraqis; and his Mahdi army is big enough and strong enough and motivated enough to take on anybody who wants a piece of 'em. But because he won't bend to Yanqui pressure, he's "anti-American."
As usual, the US is backing the wrong horse.
The hit sure sounds like an IP commando operation... perhaps backed by ISF's OGA "trainers." If so, it represents a very dangerous escalation by Maliki and ISCI/Da'wa against Sadr and the forces he represents.
It could also represent old-fashioned revenge killing. Nouri was a key suspect in the brutal assassination of Ayatollah Abdul Majid al-Khoei on 10 April 2003 (5 years ago!). Indeed, Sadr's first uprising in April 2004 started when the coalition forces arrested Nouri for his suspected role in that death. In addition, some of Maliki's close advisors were killed in the recent Basra unpleasantness; perhaps Nouri's death is payback for that?
Nouri was also one of the key financial officers for the Office of the Martyr Sadr; perhaps his death is related to money, power or internal leadership struggles in the OMS/Sadr Movement. Mookie's reaction (holding Maliki and the Americans responsible) seems to downplay this possibility, but JAM's restraint (as compared to 2004) might indicate that Mookie is unsure exactly who is to blame. (Sadr's restraint reminds me of Nasrallah's restraint in the wake of Mugniyeh's assassination...also a death without clear attribution.)
A final possibility is Iranian involvement. Clearly, Tehran is involved to varying degrees with all the Shi'i combatants in Iraq. Perhaps Mookie is getting too independent for the Persians (who's #1 goal is to ensure no return to Iraqi power on their western border)? Mookie certainly did not roll over in the Basra spectacle; he stood up for Iraqis, used the Iranians to get the truce and further enhanced his power, prestige and position. Maybe too much - and his close aide & friend Nouri paid the price in the message sent from Persia.
No matter who did the deed, it again exposes the very real nature of Iraq - a lawless land where the only real security is the security one provides for oneself.
Serving Patriot,
I agree with you that Iran's #1 geopolitical goal is a weak or friendly Iraq on their western border. Ever since 1991 Iran's influence has been growing; now that we've taken out Saddam and installed a Shiite government in Baghdad, Tehran is the biggest regional power there.
Funny how the neocons don't see what they've wrought.
Check out the War Nerd's April column. It was written before the assassination, but he has the situation so thoroughly nailed that he might as well have ESP.
When Iraqi Shi’ites want to insult each other, they accuse each other of being pro-Iranian, and it is an accusation. They buy the idea of an “Iraqi nation,” as long as it’s their gang running it. One thing you can absolutely count on in the Middle East is that every clan, every sect, is going to look out for itself. The middle-class Shia are using us; Sadr’s using Iran; but they’re both out for themselves. Sadr would probably have been willing to cooperate with us, if Bremer hadn’t pushed him into rebellion in 2004. So it’s a mistake to think of any of these groups as having permanent alliances. They’re practical people.
[snip]
Sadr’s not afraid of us, he and his commanders just see us as a dangerous nuisance, like a chained pit bull they have to step around. Ten years from now, every player in the current game will still be playing this slow, shady game, except one: the Americans.
Nice work, Brecher. Can't wait for the book.
for an account of a fighting retreat la noche triste
or
thoughts on Tet, Hue, and insomnia
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