If McCain wins this election, I'm going to take it as a karmic sign that planet earth is headed for the conditions depicted in WALL-E.
Thanks for getting this out there, TLG. I am still incredulous that the gap isn't wider -- but then, I get my news from something other than the fawning gasbags on the big three networks.
For a purely subjective report, every night David Letterman polls his audience, asking them how many would vote for each candidate by applause. It used to be that Clinton and Obama were neck and neck, with McCain a definite third, so I expected that once the Dem candidate was settled on, the applause for that single name would be thunderous. Didn't happen. In fact, it became more evenly divided between Obama and McCain.
I don't know who makes up the bulk of his audience, tourists from elsewhere (which means people with money to travel, which means...what?) or local New Yorkers.
However, in the last week, since Obama's trip to Europe, I can tell a distinctly louder set of applause for him over McCain. For what it's worth.
It's so early. And the "returns" are SO not in yet.
Wait until mid-October, when just the POSSIBILITY of another 4 years of george bush's policies begins to loom large in the consciousness of the voters. :o)
Now that McBush has just compared Obama to Britney Spears; SusanG on Kos, has dug up this little clip from September of 2003, of her telling Tucker Carlson that we should all "just trust the president".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P...w.dailykos.com/
No smileface big enough, on this one.
:o)
I go now to look for endorsements of goatboy, by PARIS HILTON! :o)
I honestly never trust the polls...i generaly make the assumption that teh media is tryign to drive the narative instead of just report it...poll are very easy to maniplate(look at the last gallup poll). So of McCain is trailing by this much in polls run by companies who want
1) a close race
2) a McCain victory.
well then that is a very good sign for Obama...
honestly this election is goign to come down to weither or not my genreation and the next show up to the polls...I think this will be the first tiem gen x shows up in numbers and the group that fallows us will show up in supriseign force....we don't get polled...
I honestly never trust the polls...i generaly make the assumption that teh media is tryign to drive the narative instead of just report it...poll are very easy to maniplate(look at the last gallup poll). So of McCain is trailing by this much in polls run by companies who want
1) a close race
2) a McCain victory.
well then that is a very good sign for Obama...
honestly this election is goign to come down to weither or not my genreation and the next show up to the polls...I think this will be the first tiem gen x shows up in numbers and the group that fallows us will show up in supriseign force....we don't get polled...
stupid halo scan, gives me a 500 error. I close the window and dubble post...
stupid halo scan. no cookie.
These national polls really don't mean that much anyway as they are counting a shitload of California, New York, and Texas voters who's states really aren't in play.
What I have noticed is that in the past few weeks, Obama has come from far behind to leading McCain in Florida. That's the biggest jump of any state poll I've seen recently. It also looks to me like Obama's recent rise in Florida correlates almost perfectly with McCain's recent lust for offshore drilling.
I haven't seen any state-specific polling on offshore drilling. But when I was in grad school I was involved in evaluating the original offshore drilling moratorium under Bush I. As I recall, the offshore drilling moratorium was tremendously popular in both Florida and California. With one exception (Orlando) all the major cities in Florida are on the coast. And Floridians have been very opposed to offshore drilling along their coastline. Not only to prevent oil derricks from ruining the views, but for fear of oil spills soiling Florida beaches. I can't believe attitudes in Florida have changed that much, even with high gas prices.
If Obama wins Florida than things really look grim for McCain. I have to wonder if McCain's lust for offshore oil might be too clever by half if it loses him Florida. I'm not sure which swing states the oil lust is supposed to swing his way. Ohio? It will get him a lot of votes in Texas and Alaska but I don't see the issue of offshore drilling winning him a lot of votes in places like Colorado or Virginia.
Kent why assume texas isn't in play...tahts the type of thinking that got us bush twice.
moonglum:
I live in Texas and I would LOVE to think that Texas is in play. But I'm skeptical. I'd love to see Obama spend time and effort here, especially for the sake of the down-ballot races which are critical for control of the state legislature. But there are perhaps a dozen large media markets in Texas. Many more than in California, for example. And I'm not sure an all-out campaign blitz to win Texas makes strategic sense since it would suck off so much cash and effort from those midwest and northern states where things are always tight.
For that reason, I expect that Obama will go to some effort to make McCain at least DEFEND Texas. But I doubt the campaign will devote the necessary resources it would take to actually win Texas.
But there are perhaps a dozen large media markets in Texas. Many more than in California, for example
But every large media market in California is expensive to run commercials in. A bit more so than Texas.
Don't want to get into a long argument about this, but because the state is so sprawling and there are so many different media markets, I believe the per-voter cost of media campaigning is higher in Texas. This was a point of discussion during the primaries. The only state that's dramatically more expensive to campaign in is New Jersey because that state is covered mostly by the New York and Philly media markets.
In any event, this state is so vast, that getting into a campaign ground war in Texas has been likened to getting into a ground war in Russia. There aren't many Texans in the Obama inner circle and I just don't see them making a major play to actually win Texas. A head fake to keep McCain on the defensive seems more likely. In any event, if Obama actually did win Texas I suspect it would be in the larger context of a massive national landslide in which case it's all moot anyway.
This is excellent news...
...for John McCain!!!11!!1one [/Media Shills]
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