Sadr, heading the "new U.N. mission" off at the pass.
Hey, Hub: Of course, you know about that constitutionally mandated referendum that's supposed to decide Kirkuk's future, by the end of this year.
How much do you think they can get from bush, if they agree to postpone it until after the election, at which time, it's turdly splendor will likely be floating in the democrats' chiffon congeal?
I'm thinkin' Talabani can get the ranch in Crawford, with Laura as live-in maid.
Our 'very serious' punditocracy has some major 'splainin' to do, not least why did they defer to the chickenhawk lightweight Bush on military theory and tactics?
'Anonymous' was me at 08.20.07 - 8:25 pm
TB, not happening. Maliki's government wont make it to the end of the year.
They are already soft pedalling that
http://www.reuters.com/article/
h...81226._CH_.2400
Al Sadr is the leader of a great many Iraqis. I think the US should back him to run the government, even a Sharia government. Unless al Sadr is murdered by the US, he probably will end up the leader of Iraq. Let the Iraqis decide who their leaders should be, even if it is through civil war. Americans need to stop thinking they can assassinate whomever they please.
tpx, i was just being snarky about the bounty.
Murdering Sadr would be a huge mistake, about as big as sending the army home and debaathifying the government was.
Hubris Sonic,
Which is why that is what Cheney's guys are planning right now. The murder of Sadr and the attack on Iran. Of course the irony is that the death of Sadr effectively strengthens the hand of Iran in Iraq, but you go with the plan you have, not the plan that's smart.
(Presumably) Sadr's dispatching of two Badr governors in the south is both a show of ability and reach, and also perhaps a pre-emptive strike towards possible all out war by the government and the US against the Sadrists throughout the country. Sadr will have to do some political maneuvering to push the issue of a national Shia-Sunni alliance against the US, the Badr Corps and the Kurds, but the Badr Corps appears to have waning power especially as US-Iranian relations are almost upon open war.
And of course Patraeus will report that the secure and hold strategy has had some success. On September 11th of course. This time I will not hold my breath as Congress again betrays the United States people and especially the US military to give further authorization for the War to Save Bush's Ego. What sacrifices have been made to shelter the stupid, greedy, rich, ignorant ruling class and their precious peace of mind.
as scary as he is to the bush-cheneys a live he would be MUCH more dangerous as a martyr. in fact if he falls down and hits his head and ends up in the hospital we will get blamed- and all hell will break loose, So I suspect that at least the kbr and halliburton guys are hoping sadr stays healthy if not happy.
but you go with the plan you have, not the plan that's smart.
Isn't that the story of the whole Bush Maladministration, rather then make a plan based on reality, and adjusting to take into account what is actually happening, they puck one out of mid air and stick to it, and if you dare point out anything wrong with it, you are labelled "anti-american" or a traitor.
Of course, the really interesting thing is how on point al-Sadr generally is.
" We don't have a democracy here, we have a foreign occupation.
Succinct and manifestly true. Now, how many US Senators would have the guts to say that about Iraq ?
Where is our boy Allawi in this picture?
Hubris; whether Maliki falls or not, that referendum for Kirkuk is in the constitution. It was the chit that was handed to the Kurds to get them on board for the "greater Iraq" bullshit.
And, one way or another, by the end of the year,it's going to be called in.
For them to postpone it, bush is going to have to give them the moon.
And of course:
Who is going to be the new PM?
Who is going to CHOOSE the new PM?
Is parliament going to be disbanded?
If the democracy fig-leaf goes up in flames, Will the brits stick around until the spring, as everything goes back to square one? (I seriously doubt it)
Bush's political fortunes are, in substantial measure, tied to Maliki's.
If the government falls, the dems, or at least, the more courageous ones, will be digging up the purple-fingered-ecstasy statements from the election.
And, as you point out; Sadr is going to have a say in this matter.
"Disarm the militias" has been the cry. Where is ANY Iraqi government going to start, with that. Centcom hasn't been able to do it. Does anyone think that Allawi, for bizarro-world example, is going to be able to do it?
Will it include disarming the Peshmerga, the units that are being used against both the Sunnis and the Shiites?
Except for that small contingent at the palace south of Basra, the brits are behind the wire at the Basra airport, reduced to making "show the flag" supply runs to the palace. (In which they get worked over pretty good.)
I say again; when THEY leave, the pressure on bush will become nearly unbearable.
No butter on that popcorn, please.
BTW, on that Reuters piece? That's the U.S. ambassador talking.
Tinkerbelle fantasy, is what that is.
The Kurds MAY postpone the referendum, but they won't do it without one of George Bush balls being deposited in the First National Bank of Kurdistan. :o)
Allawi was never our boy, im prety sure he was allways irans boy...they play ed us this whole time.
And just how old is that photo dickless?
At least find something current. You most likely fell for those doctored photos from hizbolla too.
Tanhoss Old Buddy, yer dead phreakin spot on with respect to Al Sadr headin off the UN Mission that's being bandied about. Great call!
A UN Mission might ACTUALLY help to reunite Iraq as it was . . . over time. But that's the LAST thing Al Sadr wants. I'm sure he would be DELIGHTED to see Iraq split into three units . . . he's got a shot at oil in the south so what does HE care about unity. He can build his base with the oil and creep north anytime he wants.
I'm unclear about any deals for the Kurds? Tan are you speaking of their pending issue of being voted into 'Kurdistan'? I googled, and it APPEARS the Kurds have already SIGNED PSA's with a number of foreign companies . . . I wonder if those PSA's are as stifling as the one's USA was trying to get them to sign. So that's TWO huge issues the Kurds have on their table.
The bottom line? Iraq is seriously screwed up. NO ONE is getting out of there without huge losses.
And NO ONE will be safe once the occupiers are out of there, if they EVER LEAVE!!
The Kurds are gonna go their own way, no matter WHAT happens, and that means Turkey is gonna invade, further complicating shit in general.
Depending on WHO the Kurds signed them PSA's with, China or Russia might come to their aid of Turkey invades . . . with Iran more or less invading the South with or against Al Sadr (or bith), and the Sunni's being dead ducks as a minority, it's a wicked and hellish scene of ethnic cleansing, paybacks, and a powder keg for a stray nuke to go off.
What will the USA do in the next year . . . attacking/nuking Iran will pretty much put everything else on the back burner, but THAT will unleash god knows what kinda shit with the Russians and China now in play with Iran and pipelines, etc.
And of course, the global blowback from the Muslim Community at large will be horrific for USA, abroad and here at home.
We're screwed pretty much any way we go. Stay, leave, hit Iran . . . equally screwed. And, no oil for USA, either . . . I think it's time to accept that and get on with changing and remaking our country and its needs and goals.
Our best bet is to get the hell out, NOW, and let it sort itself out . . but no Dem's OR Pubs, or the MIC, or Big Biz want THAT to happen.
Pass the popcorn, I brought my OWN salt and butter. LOTS of it . . *G*
Ok, I messed up above . . A LOT!!
1) Al Sadr WANTS the UN, as a tool to get USA out.
That would help keep the oil in IRAQI hands and they won't have to sign off the horrendous PSA's and lose control of their asset.
2) Kirkuk is up for grabs, with a referendum, but it's in jeapordy as Maliki fails and falls. Kurds could go ahead and annex Kirkuk to 'Kurdistan' which would spell out MORE sectarian bloodshed, but that's already happening as both Al Sadr and Al Queda support and stage violence against the Kurds. Not to mention, annexing Kirkuk will bring on the Turks in a MIGHTY way.
The rest I pondered will stand . . . it's a total clusterphuck . . . at this point, Russia has a GREAT chance of being the last man standing in Iraqi North . . .
That's right, Jim. Sadr's support is dwindling as we speak.
That's why bush shits green nickels every time he makes a speech.
And, don't worry about the time-frame for that picture...
With Iraq looking more and more like some kind of unspinnable bloody-ass chaos-theory petri-dish every day, there'll be plenty of those photo-ops to come.
Larue, good to hear your voice. :o)
The "deal" for the Kurds is yet to be announced, but if it happens (and bush and the petroturds better fucking PRAY it happens!) it will involve them getting some HUGE "quid" for postponing the referendum "quo".
If the referendum goes forward, that little expression of "democracy" will be like a world of shit descending on the heads of bushCo.
And you're right; the Kurds have been
selling the oil they already have control of, out the back door as fast as they can. Which sales, the Iraqi Government is whining about. (From underneath their desks in the green zone)
Just think how happy the Kurds will be to pick up another 600-odd HIGH producing wells, if that referendum happens. In fact, as one writer said, the referendum may be a "red line" issue for them...non-negotiable.
In which case, Condoleeza Rice will have to be spending more time under Recep Erdogan's desk, than Monica spent under Bill's. :o)
my god jim is soooo geh...
larue,
You are confusing Sadr with the Badr Corps. Sadr is a nationalist that wants to rule all of Iraq.
Commenting by HaloScan
